scholarly journals The Spatial Diffusion of Social Conformity and its Effect on Voter Turnout

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Coleman
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Behavior Patterns ◽  
Spatial Analyses ◽  
Social Conformity ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Local Degree

Social conformity can spread social norms and behaviors through a society. This research examines such a process geographically for conformity with the norm that citizens should vote and consequent voter turnout. A mathematical model for this process is developed based on the Laplace equation, and predictions are tested with qualitative and quantitative spatial analyses of state-level voter turnout in American presidential elections. Results show that the diffusion of conformist behavior affects the local degree of turnout and produces highly specific and predictable voting behavior patterns across the United States, confirming the model.

The Effect of Social Conformity on Collective Voting Behavior

2004 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 76-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Coleman
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Rational Choice Theory ◽  
Choice Theory ◽  
State Level ◽  
Past Research ◽  
The United States ◽  
Social Conformity ◽  
Cross Sectional

This article investigates the effect of social conformity on voting behavior. Past research shows that many people vote to conform with the social norm that voting is a civic duty. The hypothesis here is that when conformity motivates people to vote, it also stimulates conformist behavior among some voters when they decide which party to vote for. This produces a distinctive relationship between voter turnout and the distribution of votes among parties—a relationship not anticipated by rational choice theory. I test a mathematical model of this behavior with linear and nonlinear regression analyses of state-level data for presidential elections in the United States from 1904 to 1996, longitudinal data on parliamentary elections in Western Europe over most of the twentieth century, and cross-sectional data for recent elections in Western Europe, Eastern Europe, and Russia. The results generally validate the model.

Estimating the Electoral Effects of Voter Turnout

2010 ◽  
Vol 104 (2) ◽  
pp. 268-288 ◽  
Author(s):  
THOMAS G. HANSFORD ◽  
BRAD T. GOMEZ
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
The United States ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Electoral Choice ◽  
High Turnout ◽  
Specific Factors

This article examines the electoral consequences of variation in voter turnout in the United States. Existing scholarship focuses on the claim that high turnout benefits Democrats, but evidence supporting this conjecture is variable and controversial. Previous work, however, does not account for endogeneity between turnout and electoral choice, and thus, causal claims are questionable. Using election day rainfall as an instrumental variable for voter turnout, we are able to estimate the effect of variation in turnout due to across-the-board changes in the utility of voting. We re-examine the Partisan Effects and Two-Effects Hypotheses, provide an empirical test of an Anti-Incumbent Hypothesis, and propose a Volatility Hypothesis, which posits that high turnout produces less predictable electoral outcomes. Using county-level data from the 1948–2000 presidential elections, we find support for each hypothesis. Failing to address the endogeneity problem would lead researchers to incorrectly reject all but the Anti-Incumbent Hypothesis. The effect of variation in turnout on electoral outcomes appears quite meaningful. Although election-specific factors other than turnout have the greatest influence on who wins an election, variation in turnout significantly affects vote shares at the county, national, and Electoral College levels.

scholarly journals Taking the Temperature: Implications for Adoption of Election Day Registration, State-Level Voter Turnout, and Life Expectancy

2012 ◽  
Vol 45 (01) ◽  
pp. 78-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
A Wuffle ◽  
Craig Leonard Brians ◽  
Kristine Coulter
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Explanatory Variable ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
National Average

AbstractWe consider the neglected importance of temperature as an explanatory variable. We show that: (1) colder states have turnout that is high relative to the national average; (2) the coldest states in the United States were more likely to adopt Election Day Registration (EDR) than other states, and very hot states never did so; and (3) those who live in colder states live longer.

Randomization Inference with Rainfall Data: Using Historical Weather Patterns for Variance Estimation

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 277-288 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alicia Dailey Cooperman
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Variance Estimation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Average Treatment Effect ◽  
Standard Errors ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Political Outcomes ◽  
Randomization Inference ◽  
Highly Correlated

Many recent papers in political science and economics use rainfall as a strategy to facilitate causal inference. Rainfall shocks are as-if randomly assigned, but the assignment of rainfall by county is highly correlated across space. Since clustered assignment does not occur within well-defined boundaries, it is challenging to estimate the variance of the effect of rainfall on political outcomes. I propose using randomization inference with historical weather patterns from 73 years as potential randomizations. I replicate the influential work on rainfall and voter turnout in presidential elections in the United States by Gomez, Hansford, and Krause (2007) and compare the estimated average treatment effect (ATE) to a sampling distribution of estimates under the sharp null hypothesis of no effect. The alternate randomizations are random draws from national rainfall patterns on election and would-be election days, which preserve the clustering in treatment assignment and eliminate the need to simulate weather patterns or make assumptions about unit boundaries for clustering. I find that the effect of rainfall on turnout is subject to greater sampling variability than previously estimated using conventional standard errors.

scholarly journals A polygenic score for educational attainment partially predicts voter turnout

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (50) ◽  
pp. e2022715118
Author(s):  
Christopher T. Dawes ◽  
Aysu Okbay ◽  
Sven Oskarsson ◽  
Aldo Rustichini
Keyword(s):  
Political Participation ◽  
Educational Attainment ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
The United States ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Adoption Studies ◽  
Polygenic Score ◽  
Family Analysis ◽  
Swedish Sample

Twin and adoption studies have shown that individual differences in political participation can be explained, in part, by genetic variation. However, these research designs cannot identify which genes are related to voting or the pathways through which they exert influence, and their conclusions rely on possibly restrictive assumptions. In this study, we use three different US samples and a Swedish sample to test whether genes that have been identified as associated with educational attainment, one of the strongest correlates of political participation, predict self-reported and validated voter turnout. We find that a polygenic score capturing individuals’ genetic propensity to acquire education is significantly related to turnout. The strongest associations we observe are in second-order midterm elections in the United States and European Parliament elections in Sweden, which tend to be viewed as less important by voters, parties, and the media and thus present a more information-poor electoral environment for citizens to navigate. A within-family analysis suggests that individuals’ education-linked genes directly affect their voting behavior, but, for second-order elections, it also reveals evidence of genetic nurture. Finally, a mediation analysis suggests that educational attainment and cognitive ability combine to account for between 41% and 63% of the relationship between the genetic propensity to acquire education and voter turnout.

scholarly journals Geographic variation in personality is associated with fertility across the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eleanor J. Junkins ◽  
Joseph E. Potter ◽  
Peter J. Rentfrow ◽  
Samuel D. Gosling ◽  
Jeff Potter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Geographic Variation ◽  
Regional Differences ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Fertility Schedule ◽  
Fertility Differentials ◽  
The U.S

Levels of fertility and the shape of the age-specific fertility schedule vary substantially across U.S. regions with some states having peak fertility relatively early and others relatively late. Structural institutions or economic factors partly explain these heterogeneous patterns, but regional differences in personality might also contribute to regional differences in fertility. Here, we evaluated whether variation in extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism, and openness to experience measured at the U.S. state-level was associated with the level, timing, and context of fertility across states above and beyond sociodemographics, voting behavior, and religiosity. Generally, states with higher levels of agreeableness and conscientiousness had more traditional fertility patterns, and states with higher levels of neuroticism and openness had more nontraditional fertility patterns, even after controlling for established correlates of fertility (r ~ |.50|). Personality is an overlooked correlate that can be leveraged to understand the existence and persistence of fertility differentials.

Identity, Attitudes, and the Voting Behavior of Mosque-Attending Muslim-Americans in the 2000 and 2004 Presidential Elections

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 289-311 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis Patterson ◽  
Gamal Gasim ◽  
Jangsup Choi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The United States ◽  
Muslim Americans ◽  
Religious Traditions ◽  
Identity Attitudes ◽  
Negative Perceptions ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Post September 11

AbstractIn a post-September 11 world, no religious group in the United States has become more important yet remains more misunderstood than Muslim-Americans. This is particularly true with respect to the manner in which religious and political attitudes influence Muslim-Americans’ political behavior. This article addresses this issue by using data gathered from surveys taken in 70 mosques throughout the United States. With these data, this article maps the political and religious attitudes and behavior of mosque-attending Muslim-Americans and then analyzes the voting behavior of these respondents in the 2000 and 2004 Presidential elections. It will show that the cultural and religious traditions of Islam have resulted in most mosque-attending Muslim-Americans being social conservatives and, as a result, report having voted for Bush in 2000. It will also show that increasingly negative perceptions of the manner in which the United States war in Iraq has affected Muslims living American led many to switch loyalties and cast their ballots for Kerry in 2004.

Introduction

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan E. Leighley ◽  
Jonathan Nagler
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Policy Choices ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Impact

This introductory chapter sets out the book's purpose, which is to examine voter turnout in every U.S. presidential election from 1972 through 2008 in order to address four questions regarding the changing political context of turnout. First, how have the demographics of turnout in presidential elections changed or remained the same since 1972? Second, what have been the consequences of the broad set of election reforms designed to make registration or voting easier that have been adopted over the past several decades? Third, what is the impact of the policy choices that candidates offer voters on who votes? And fourth, is the conclusion—of the now classic study of voter turnout in the United States by Wolfinger and Rosenstone (1980)—that voters are representative of nonvoters on policy issues accurate, and therefore, who votes does not really matter? The findings on these four questions advance our understanding of turnout and its consequences for representation in fundamental ways.

Structure, Behavior, and Voter Turnout in the United States

1998 ◽  
Vol 92 (1) ◽  
pp. 145-158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard J. Timpone
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Selection Bias ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gender Attitudes ◽  
Electoral Participation ◽  
Actual Decision

Electoral participation in the United States is examined to provide a clearer account of the effect of the registration requirement on individual voting behavior. Pooling NES data from 1980, 1984, and 1988, I first model, with traditional and selection bias techniques, the full electorate to distinguish among three groups: nonregistrants, registered nonvoters, and voters. Analyses limited to recent movers then reported to understand more fully the forces associated with the actual decision calculi of registering and voting. The influences of many factors commonly accepted as important determinants of voting are disentangled, and their effect at each stage is ascertained. Factors yielding inconsistent effects in previ research or believed to be unimportant—such as race, gender, attitudes toward the candidates, and trust government—are shown to deserve closer scrutiny by electoral scholars.

scholarly journals Silencing the seventh trumpet: Analyzing the effect of private schooling on voting behavior

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 199-210
Author(s):  
Ian Kingsbury
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Private School ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
The United States ◽  
University Of Southern California ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
Private Schooling ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
The University ◽  
Quantity Of Education

The United States has one of the lowest election turnout rates in the developed world. Consequently, social scientists are perpetually seeking to expand upon their knowledge of what factors are associated with voting, or the lack thereof. Commonly identified factors including age, income, race, and educational attainment have been studied extensively. However, while the quantity of education is deemed important, the type of education is overlooked. The limited literature that exists on the topic suggests that private schools have a positive effect on civic outcomes, including voter participation. In using a rich, nationally representative dataset—the Understanding America Study based out of the University of Southern California—this study reexamines whether attending a private school has an effect on whether Americans vote. It also sheds light on a heretofore-unanswered question: How does private schooling affect which candidate an individual supports? Overall, the data indicate that private schooling appears to have no impact on voter turnout, but that attending some private school appears to have a liberalizing effect.

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