scholarly journals The Yellow Vests Movement - a case of long transient dynamics?

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Morozov ◽  
Sergei Petrovskii ◽  
Sergey Gavrilets
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Social Processes ◽  
Transient Dynamics ◽  
Dynamical Models ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Social Protests ◽  
Powerful Research Tool

Understanding the dynamics of protests and social unrest is important in order to ensure a stable, sustainable development of the society. Mathematical models of social dynamics have been increasingly recognised as a powerful research tool in achieving this goal. Here, motivated by the fact that the dynamics of the ongoing Yellow Vest Movement in France exhibit anomalously long duration (currently it is in 30th week), we explore whether this can be a result of a dynamical systems phenomenon known as long transients. To this end, we build and study a hierarchy of mathematical models describing the "population dynamics" of the movement, i.e. how the number of protesters changes with time. We show that in these models long transients appear via two roots: via a ghost attractor and via an interaction of the slow and fast dynamics. We demonstrate that long transients are also present in some earlier models of social protests. Interestingly, our models predict that the Yellow Vest Movement should end abruptly by, at the latest, mid-summer 2019 without any interference from the French government. More generally, we argue that long transients are a generic feature of dynamical models describing social processes in the same way as they are in models of physical, ecological, and evolutionary systems.

scholarly journals Modelling Population Dynamics of Social Protests in Time and Space: The Reaction-Diffusion Approach

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Petrovskii ◽  
Weam Alharbi ◽  
Abdulqader Alhomairi ◽  
Andrew Morozov
Keyword(s):  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Reaction Diffusion ◽  
Great Majority ◽  
Mathematical Framework ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Spatial Extension ◽  
Spatial Systems ◽  
Social Protests ◽  
Powerful Research Tool ◽  
Spatial Aspect

Understanding of the dynamics of riots, protests, and social unrest more generally is important in order to ensure a stable, sustainable development of various social groups, as well as the society as a whole. Mathematical models of social dynamics have been increasingly recognized as a powerful research tool to facilitate the progress in this field. However, the question as to what should be an adequate mathematical framework to describe the corresponding social processes is largely open. In particular, a great majority of the previous studies dealt with non-spatial or spatially implicit systems, but the literature dealing with spatial systems remains meagre. Meanwhile, in many cases, the dynamics of social protests has a clear spatial aspect. In this paper, we attempt to close this gap partially by considering a spatial extension of a few recently developed models of social protests. We show that even a straightforward spatial extension immediately bring new dynamical behaviours, in particular predicting a new scenario of the protests’ termination.

SOCIAL DYNAMICS AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
V.N. Kurdyukov ◽  
◽  
A.I. Lebedev ◽  
A. Ademu ◽  
M. Hamdi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Economic System ◽  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Social Groups ◽  
Social Processes ◽  
Natural Growth ◽  
Governance Mechanisms

The article examined different views on population with a view to identifying major trends. Social processes that impede the transition to sustainable development within existing governance mechanisms have been identified. It is noted that due to the high social dynamics, the exit from the "modernization trap" is to be sought both by territories with high natural growth of the population, and economically attractive regions with indicators of natural decline of the population. At the same time, social dynamics in different territories in modern conditions involve the risk of its use for the benefit of different social groups and can act as a manageable factor. In order to increase the sustainability of development, in resolving the contradictions of the existing socio-economic system, it is necessary to take into account the peculiarities of agricultural territories and to develop self-sufficient models of their development.

scholarly journals Extending Geodemographics Using Data Primitives: A Review and a Methodological Proposal

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 386
Author(s):  
Jennie Gray ◽  
Lisa Buckner ◽  
Alexis Comber
Keyword(s):  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Feature Space ◽  
Social Processes ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Current State ◽  
Cluster Label ◽  
Static Data ◽  
The Social ◽  
Using Data

This paper reviews geodemographic classifications and developments in contemporary classifications. It develops a critique of current approaches and identifiea a number of key limitations. These include the problems associated with the geodemographic cluster label (few cluster members are typical or have the same properties as the cluster centre) and the failure of the static label to describe anything about the underlying neighbourhood processes and dynamics. To address these limitations, this paper proposed a data primitives approach. Data primitives are the fundamental dimensions or measurements that capture the processes of interest. They can be used to describe the current state of an area in a multivariate feature space, and states can be compared over multiple time periods for which data are available, through for example a change vector approach. In this way, emergent social processes, which may be too weak to result in a change in a cluster label, but are nonetheless important signals, can be captured. As states are updated (for example, as new data become available), inferences about different social processes can be made, as well as classification updates if required. State changes can also be used to determine neighbourhood trajectories and to predict or infer future states. A list of data primitives was suggested from a review of the mechanisms driving a number of neighbourhood-level social processes, with the aim of improving the wider understanding of the interaction of complex neighbourhood processes and their effects. A small case study was provided to illustrate the approach. In this way, the methods outlined in this paper suggest a more nuanced approach to geodemographic research, away from a focus on classifications and static data, towards approaches that capture the social dynamics experienced by neighbourhoods.

PREREQUISITES FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF WINE TOURISM IN THE SOUTHEAST REGION FOR LEVEL 2 PLANNING

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veselina Atanasova ◽  
◽  
Bratoy Koprinarov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Regional Development ◽  
Social Processes ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Tourist Destination ◽  
Wine Tourism ◽  
Southeast Region ◽  
Level 2 ◽  
The Way

In the conditions of the modern competitively developing tourism, the problems of sustainable development of a tourist destination, the need for development of alternative types of tourism are economic and social processes of increasing importance. Moreover, they focus on some of the most important changes and problems in the way of development of modern tourism. Where are these intersections and what are they due to? In what sense are the phenomena of wine tourism, sustainable development and tourist destination becoming more and more interdependent processes? How is the national and regional development of wine tourism and its sustainable development reflected in the mirror of international tourism, in the conditions of "globality" and "locality"?

scholarly journals Socioeconomic coordinates of sustainable development

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 156-172
Author(s):  
V. P. Vasiliev
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Environmental Indicators ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
New Paradigm ◽  
Socially Responsible ◽  
Environment Analysis ◽  
Public Companies

Sustainable development is revealed in the direction of a new paradigm of social dynamics analysis. The transformation of the thinking and actions of governments and businesses in the blathe state — the fight against poverty — the protection of the environment calls into question the well-known formula for economic growth. The article examines the shortcomings of GDP as an indicator of socio-economic dynamics. The system of international ratings and their indicators including along with economic parameters a number of socio-environmental indicators is shown. However, it is shown that the value of GDP is not exhausted for socio-economic research. New international coordinate system for sustainable development applied on the study of forms of strategic planning of Russia Studied the problem of instability of development of Russian business, among which shows the deformation of the labor market and outdated material-technical base. These problems are factors of negative social and environmental changes. Practice is characterized by public companies in the field of sustainable development, based on the principles of the Global compact and includes the use of international standards, covering activities in environment, analysis and adjust working practices, quality management, socially responsible business.

scholarly journals Colonialismo Cultural: Arte y Escritura en Al Ándalus a partir de 1492.

Anduli ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 235-251
Author(s):  
Marta Pérez-Castro
Keyword(s):  
Turning Point ◽  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Social Processes ◽  
Cultural Resilience ◽  
Visual Supports ◽  
Social Sphere ◽  
The Social ◽  
Cultural Order ◽  
The Moment

Relationships among visual signs, society and memory reveal the dominant cultural order in a given context as well as the causes that maintain it (influence and imposition) and the effects on the population where it occurs (alienation and cultural resilience). Therefore, it is possible to identify deeper social processes with a purely visual and symbolic reading. Visual signs (two-dimensional), in addition to configuring the way space is understood (three-dimensional), reflect social and political dynamics (the time factor). To have a more complete vision of the moment and context, it is necessary to interrelate art with sociology and history. In the specific case of al-Andalus, there is a turning point at which there are changes in visuality that are mainly reflected in writing (Arabic and Latin), the use of symbols (the Mudejar, the cross) and the organization of the spaces designated for art (temples, museums, exhibition halls); hence, these changes function as visual indexes of social dynamics that reach to the present day. The visual supports the social and vice versa, configuring and maintaining a certain worldview. If there is visual continuity, there is continuity in the social sphere.

scholarly journals The importance of transient social dynamics for restoring ecosystems beyond ecological tipping points

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (5) ◽  
pp. 2717-2722 ◽  
Author(s):  
Romina Martin ◽  
Maja Schlüter ◽  
Thorsten Blenckner
Keyword(s):  
Policy Making ◽  
Sewage Treatment ◽  
Stable State ◽  
Social Processes ◽  
Transient Dynamics ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Stable States ◽  
Social Ecological ◽  
Restoration Time

Regime shift modeling and management generally focus on tipping points, early warning indicators, and the prevention of abrupt shifts to undesirable states. Few studies assess the potential for restoring a deteriorating ecosystem that is on a transition pathway toward an undesirable state. During the transition, feedbacks that stabilize the new regime are still weak, providing an opportunity to reverse the ongoing shift. Here, we present a social-ecological model that explores both how transient social processes affect ecological dynamics in the vicinity of a tipping point to reinforce the desired state and how social mechanisms of policy implementation affect restoration time. We simulate transitions of a lake, policy making, and behavioral change by lake polluters to study the time lags that emerge as a response to the transient, deteriorating lake state. We found that restoration time is most sensitive to the timing of policy making, but that the transient dynamics of the social processes determined outcomes in nontrivial ways. Social pressure to adopt costly technology, in our case on-site sewage treatment, was up to a degree capable of compensating for delays in municipal policy making. Our analysis of interacting social and ecological time lags in the transient phase of a shallow lake highlights opportunities for restoration that a stable state analysis would miss. We discuss management perspectives for navigating critical feedbacks in a transitioning social-ecological system. The understanding of transient dynamics and the interaction with social time lags can be more relevant than solely stable states and tipping points.

Qualitative mathematical models of endocrine systems

1983 ◽  
Vol 245 (4) ◽  
pp. R473-R477 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. R. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equations ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Ordinary Differential Equations ◽  
Endocrine System ◽  
Nonlinear Ordinary Differential Equations ◽  
Dynamical Models ◽  
Rates Of Change ◽  
Reproductive Endocrine

Some qualitative dynamical models of endocrine systems are considered and analyzed, with the reproductive endocrine system as an example. The models considered are systems of nonlinear ordinary differential equations describing the rates of change of the hormonal concentrations with time. This type of general approach, which requires only the incorporation of the basic qualitative features of the interactions present in the underlying system into the model, is a potentially powerful tool for elucidating possible mechanisms for observed qualitative patterns of hormonal dynamics.

scholarly journals Dynamical Models of Interactions between Herds Forage and Water Resources in Sahelian Region

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean Jules Tewa ◽  
Alassane Bah ◽  
Suares Clovis Oukouomi Noutchie
Keyword(s):  
Drinking Water ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Optimal Foraging ◽  
Consumer Behaviour ◽  
High Variability ◽  
Dynamical Models ◽  
Predator Prey ◽  
Abrupt Changes ◽  
Predator Prey Models

Optimal foraging is one of the capital topics nowadays in Sahelian region. The vast majority of feed consumed by ruminants in Sahelian region is still formed by natural pastures. Pastoral constraints are the high variability of available forage and drinking water in space and especially in time (highly seasonal, interannual variability) and the scarcity of water resources. The mobility is the main functional and opportunistic adaptation to these constraints. Our goal in this paper is to formalize two dynamical models for interactions between a herd of domesticate animals, forage resources, and water resources inside a given Sahelian area, in order to confirm, explain, and predict by mathematical models some observations about pastoralism in Sahelian region. These models in some contexts can be similar to predator-prey models as forage and water resources can be considered as preys and herd’s animals as predators. These models exhibit very rich dynamics, since it predicts abrupt changes in consumer behaviour and disponibility of forage or water resources. The dynamics exhibits a possible coexistence between herd, resources, and water with alternative peaks in their trajectories.

scholarly journals William Morris, Cultural Leadership, and the Dynamics of Taste

2011 ◽  
Vol 85 (2) ◽  
pp. 245-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Harvey ◽  
Jon Press ◽  
Mairi Maclean
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Production ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Social Processes ◽  
Decorative Arts ◽  
William Morris ◽  
Cultural Leadership ◽  
Victorian Britain ◽  
Good Taste ◽  
The Social

This examination of the social processes that inform cultural production asks how tastes are formed, transmitted, embedded, and reproduced across generations. These questions are explored through a study of William Morris, his working methods and products, and their impact on the decorative arts in Victorian Britain and beyond. Through the exercise of cultural leadership, Morris gave physical expression to the ideals and sentiments of Romanticism, and this in turn gave rise to a community of taste reaching across class boundaries and generations. Morrisian products and designs, through the agency of his disciples, became institutionally embedded, emblematic of refinement and good taste. A process model of taste formation is deployed to explore the economic and social dynamics at work in the Morris case and more generally.

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