It's a matter of time: assessing the impact of aggressive police stops on (dis)trust in legal authority

Does the experience of being stopped by the police (including being stopped by the police at gunpoint) have a negative effect on trust in legal authority over time? Previous research suggests a link between negatively-experienced police stops and distrust of legal institutions. Yet, we lack clear evidence on the existence and dynamics of any putative causal effect. To address this gap, I draw on a three-wave longitudinal survey of adults who reside in São Paulo, Brazil, and examine the impact of police stops and police stops at gunpoint on three aspects of trust in legal authority (attitudinal change in perceptions of police fairness, perceptions of overpolicing, and cynicism about police protection). In the context of a multi-period difference-in-differences design, I rely on (i) a matching framework for panel data that assumes a dynamic treatment adoption to estimate short-term effects of a recent police stop (at gunpoint), and (ii) a doubly robust estimator that assumes a staggered treatment adoption to assess the long-term effects of a first experience of being stopped and questioned by police officers (at gunpoint). I conclude, overall, that it seems unlikely that general police stops damage trust in legal authority in São Paulo over time. However, a recent aggressive police stop with officers pointing a gun at the citizen does seem to have a negative short-term effect on perceived police fairness, while the first experience of a police stop at gunpoint among people with no previous contact seems to have a positive long-term effect on perceived overpolicing. This study contributes to a growing international literature that describes the social costs of aggressive policing strategies.

Regulação ineficaz para forçar alongamento: O caso da Previdência Complementar Aberta no Brasil

Brazilian Review of Finance ◽

10.12660/rbfin.v17n4.2019.78756 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 17 (4) ◽

pp. 33

Author(s):

Luiz Guilherme Carpizo ◽

Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia

Keyword(s):

Interest Rate ◽

Portfolio Management ◽

Risk Taking ◽

Causal Effect ◽

Portfolio Allocation ◽

Short Term ◽

Additional Risk ◽

The Interest Rate ◽

<p>Despite the fall in the interest rate observed in Brazil in recent decades, and specific regulations on the private pension segment that encourage long-term risk taking, institutions in this segment appear to be considerably sensitive to short-term factors, while avoiding exposure to long-term risk factors. With portfolio allocation data from large entities, we implemented a VAR model to evaluate the impact of interest rate changes on portfolio management decisions and performed a counterfactual analysis to define the causal effect of regulation on additional risk taking. Results indicate that interest rate increases lead to significant and persistent reduction of investment in riskier assets with longer maturities, while the implemented regulation was not able to force greater risk-taking by institutions, in addition to generating distortions in segments of the Brazilian financial market.</p>

A prospective evaluation of inter-rater agreement of routine medical records audits at a large general hospital in São Paulo, Brazil

10.1101/2020.01.21.20018325 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ana Carolina Cintra Nunes Mafra ◽

João Luiz Miraglia ◽

Fernando Antonio Basile Colugnati ◽

Gilberto Soares Lourenço Padilha ◽

Renata Rafaella Santos Tadeucci ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Medical Records ◽

Sao Paulo ◽

São Paulo ◽

Rater Agreement ◽

Prospective Longitudinal Study ◽

Targeted Interventions ◽

Prospective Longitudinal ◽

The Impact ◽

AbstractBackgroundThe quality of the patient’s medical records is strictly related to patient safety. Besides, its data are widely used in observational studies. However, the reliability of the information extracted from them is a matter of concern in audit processes to ensure inter-rater agreement (IRA). Thus, the objective of this study is to evaluate the IRA among members of the Patient’s Health Record Review Board (PHRRB), in routine auditing of medical records, and the impact of periodic discussions of results with raters.MethodsProspective longitudinal study conducted between July of 2015 and April of 2016 at Hospital Municipal Dr. Moysés Deutsch, a large public hospital in São Paulo. The PHRRB was composed of 12 physicians, 9 nurses and 3 physiotherapists, who audited medical records, monthly, with the number of raters changing throughout the study. It was carried out PHRRB meetings to reach a consensus on criteria that the members have to rate in the auditing process. It was created a review chart that raters should verify the registry of patient’s secondary diagnosis, chief complaint, history of presenting complaint, past medical history, medication history, physical exam and diagnostic testing. It was obtained the IRA every three months. The Gwet’s AC1 coefficient and Proportion of Agreement (PA) were calculated to evaluate the IRA for each item over time.ResultsThe study included 1884 items from 239 records with an overall full agreement among raters of 71.2%. A significant IRA increase by 16.5% (OR=1.17; 95% CI=1.03—1.32; p=0.014) was found in the routine PHRRB auditing, with no significant differences between the PA and the Gwet’s AC1, that showed a similar evolution over time. The PA decreased by 27.1% when at least one of the raters was absent from the review meeting (OR=0.73; 95% CI=0.53—1.00; p=0.048).ConclusionsMedical record quality has been associated with the quality of care and could be optimized and improved by targeted interventions. The PA and the Gwet’s AC1 are suitable agreement coefficients that are feasible to be incorporated in the routine of PHRRB evaluation process.

1218Estimating the causal effect of mobility on Dengue during the COVID-19 pandemic

International Journal of Epidemiology ◽

10.1093/ije/dyab168.572 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 50 (Supplement_1) ◽

Author(s):

Kirstin Roster ◽

Colm Connaughton ◽

Francisco A Rodrigues

Keyword(s):

Causal Effect ◽

Experimental Situation ◽

Human Mobility ◽

Sao Paulo ◽

Average Treatment Effect ◽

São Paulo ◽

Paulo State ◽

Quasi Experimental ◽

São Paulo State ◽

Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic led to a reduction in human mobility which occurred randomly (in time) and is not linked to any other Dengue risk factors. This gives rise to a quasi-experimental situation to assess the impact of mobility reduction on Dengue Fever in Brazilian cities using propensity score matching. Methods We match weeks during the peak pandemic period for 37 cities in São Paulo state with comparable prior periods based on instruments for mosquito population size and human susceptibility. By matching within cities, we also control for city-level characteristics, such as landscape or population density. We compute propensity scores using logistic regression and Random Forests and implement both one-to-one and one-to-many matching with calipers. Results We compare the Sample Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (SATT) across models and find variation in the direction of the causal effect. In 12 cities, mobility reductions are linked to more Dengue cases, while fewer cases are reported in 9 cities. The remaining cities are sensitive to the model chosen. Conclusions The SATT of mobility on Dengue varies across the cities in our sample, with more cities experiencing an increase in cases during the COVID-19 pandemic. Key messages A quasi-experimental analysis suggests that there is a a causal effect of mobility on Dengue that varies across cities in São Paulo state.

Advances in Hospitality, Tourism, and the Services Industry - Global Entrepreneurial Trends in the Tourism and Hospitality Industry ◽

Evaluating the Impact of a Tourist Event on a Destination

10.4018/978-1-7998-2603-3.ch001 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-17

Author(s):

Vincenzo Asero ◽

Venera Tomaselli

Keyword(s):

Local Economy ◽

Legacy Effects ◽

Short Term ◽

Entrepreneurial Opportunities ◽

Local Stakeholders ◽

Negative Impacts ◽

Tourism And Hospitality ◽

The Impact ◽

Events create different types of impact on the local economy and host communities. They can trigger a variety of short- or long-term, positive or negative impacts. Literature distinguishes the term ‘impact' from ‘legacy.' While impacts affect the economy of the host place in the short-term, legacy remains longer than the event itself. Thus, if residents perceive benefits from the event, they will be supportive of hosting in the future. This chapter focuses on events as entrepreneurial opportunities of tourism and hospitality for a hosting place. It is based on the perceptions expressed by the different categories of local stakeholders involved in an international literary festival hosted in Italy. The study shows that evaluating and understanding the legacy effects for a place hosting an event, as perceived by the different local stakeholders involved, can provide managerial insights for planning over time events in the same place.

How Big Is Too Big?

Circulation Heart Failure ◽

10.1161/circheartfailure.119.006688 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 13 (10) ◽

Author(s):

Elizabeth D. Krebs ◽

Jared P. Beller ◽

J. Hunter Mehaffey ◽

Nicholas R. Teman ◽

Jamie L. W. Kennedy ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Body Mass Index ◽

Organ Donation ◽

Body Mass ◽

Severe Obesity ◽

Short Term ◽

Transplant Outcomes ◽

Severely Obese ◽

The Impact ◽

Background: As the population becomes increasingly obese, so does the pool of potential organ donors. We sought to investigate the impact of donors with body mass index ≥40 (severe obesity) on heart transplant outcomes. Methods: Single-organ first-time adult heart transplants from 2003 to 2017 were evaluated from the United Network for Organ Sharing database and stratified by donor severe obesity status (body mass index ≥40). Demographics were compared, and univariate and risk-adjusted analyses evaluated the relationship between severe obesity and short-term outcomes and long-term mortality. Further analysis evaluated the prevalence of severe obesity within the pool of organ donation candidates. Results: A total of 26 532 transplants were evaluated, of which 939 (3.5%) had donors with body mass index ≥40, with prevalence increasing over time (2.2% in 2003, 5.3% in 2017). Severely obese donors more likely had diabetes mellitus (10.4% versus 3.1%, P <0.01) and hypertension (33.3% versus 14.8%, P <0.01), and 67.4% were size mismatched (donor weight >130% of recipient). Short-term outcomes were similar, including 1-year survival (10.6% versus 10.7%), with no significant difference in unadjusted and risk-adjusted long-term survival (log-rank P =0.67, hazard ratio, 0.928, P =0.30). Organ donation candidates also exhibited an increase in severe obesity over time, from 3.5% to 6.8%, with a lower proportion of hearts from severely obese donors being transplanted (19.5% versus 31.6%, P <0.01). Conclusions: Donor severe obesity was not associated with adverse post-transplant outcomes. Increased evaluation of hearts from obese donors, even those with body mass index ≥40, has the potential to expand the critically low donor pool.

On Time Effect of Preschool Education: Social Analysis Based on CUCDS

Complexity ◽

10.1155/2021/2855542 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2021 ◽

pp. 1-10

Author(s):

Bohan Yan ◽

Yongjun Feng ◽

Ning Cai

Keyword(s):

Cognitive Ability ◽

Chinese Language ◽

Preschool Education ◽

Term Effect ◽

Long Term Effects ◽

Short Term ◽

Long Term Effect ◽

Children Development ◽

Cognitive ability is an important aspect of children’s development, but there is still room for discussion about the impact of preschool education on children’s cognitive ability. Based on the data of China Urbanization and Children Development Survey (CUCDS) of Tsinghua University, this paper categorizes cognitive ability into Chinese language cognition and mathematical cognition. It is discovered that the impact of preschool education on children’s cognitive development differs depending on the cognitive ability and the length of time. In particular, preschool education has both short-term and long-term effects on children’s Chinese cognitive ability, while there is only a short-term effect on the development of children’s mathematical cognitive ability without long-term effect.

The Impact of Business Communication Education on Students’ Short- and Long-Term Performances

Business Communication Quarterly ◽

10.1177/1080569903261995 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 67 (1) ◽

pp. 24-40 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Jensen J. Zhao ◽

Melody W. Alexander

Keyword(s):

Business Communication ◽

Performance Outcomes ◽

Term Effect ◽

Communication Education ◽

Short Term ◽

Communication Course ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

Long Term Impact ◽

The purpose of this longitudinal study was to identify the short- and long-term impact of business communication education on students’ skill developments and performance outcomes. Nearly 400 students at an AACSC International–accredited business college participated in the study during their sophomore and senior years. The findings indicate that the business communication course helped students develop good skills in writing reports, solving problems, working in teams, communicating orally, and using Internet technologies for both the short term (sophomore year) and the long term (senior year). More than 95% of the students reported achieving As and Bs on written assignments, company-analysis reports, problem-solving assignments, and oral presentations in their sophomore, junior, and senior years. However, the long-term effect was statistically less significant than was the short-term effect, although both were within the same positive range.

The Impact of Financial Development on Carbon Emission: Evidence from China

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su12176959 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (17) ◽

pp. 6959 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Mingyuan Guo ◽

Yanfang Hu

Keyword(s):

Financial Development ◽

Carbon Emissions ◽

Term Effect ◽

Short Term ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Distributed Lag Model ◽

Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽

Lag Model ◽

This paper studies the impact of financial development on carbon emissions in China from 1997 to 2016. First, this paper uses the entropy method to construct a synthetical index to measure the financial development. Meanwhile, a two-dimensional panel framework is introduced to group provinces in the panel analysis. The estimation results of the time series autoregressive distributed lag model show that for China as a whole, there is a weak carbon emissions reduction effect of financial development, whether it is a long-term effect or a short-term effect. The estimation results of the panel autoregressive distributed lag model also support that an increase in financial development suppresses carbon emissions. Although financial development inhibits carbon emissions both in the short run and in the long run, the absolute value of the long-term coefficient of financial development is significantly greater than that of the short-term coefficient.

The Impact of Exploitation and Exploration on Export Sales Growth: The Moderating Role of Domestic and International Collaborations

Journal of International Marketing ◽

10.1177/1069031x20963617 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 28 (4) ◽

pp. 1-20

Author(s):

Carlos M.P. Sousa ◽

Rebecca Yu Li ◽

Xinming He

Keyword(s):

Time Lags ◽

Sales Growth ◽

Short Term ◽

International Collaborations ◽

Exploitation And Exploration ◽

The Impact ◽

Moderating Role ◽

This study examines the short- and long-term implications of the impact of exploitation and exploration on export sales growth. It also explores the moderating role of external collaborations by differentiating between domestic collaborations and international collaborations. The authors tested their conceptual model with data from the U.K. Community Innovation Survey (2010–2016). Using different time lags for exploitation and exploration, the findings indicate that the impact varies over time. Specifically, they reveal that the effect of exploitation is negative in the long term but positive in the short term, while exploration has no significant effect in the short term but a positive influence on export sales growth in the long term. Similarly, the moderating effect of domestic and international collaborations has been found to vary over time. The authors conclude with a discussion of the theoretical and practical implications.

The Impact of Persistent Terrorism on Political Tolerance: Israel, 1980 to 2011

American Political Science Review ◽

10.1017/s0003055415000441 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 109 (4) ◽

pp. 817-832 ◽

Cited By ~ 37

Author(s):

MARK PEFFLEY ◽

MARC L. HUTCHISON ◽

MICHAL SHAMIR

Keyword(s):

Terrorist Attacks ◽

Political Tolerance ◽

Democratic Values ◽

Short Term ◽

The Right ◽

The Impact ◽

The U.S ◽

How do persistent terrorist attacks influence political tolerance, a willingness to extend basic liberties to one's enemies? Studies in the U.S. and elsewhere have produced a number of valuable insights into how citizens respond to singular, massive attacks like 9/11. But they are less useful for evaluating how chronic and persistent terrorist attacks erode support for democratic values over the long haul. Our study focuses on political tolerance levels in Israel across a turbulent 30-year period, from 1980 to 2011, which allows us to distinguish the short-term impact of hundreds of terrorist attacks from the long-term influence of democratic longevity on political tolerance. We find that the corrosive influence of terrorism on political tolerance is much more powerful among Israelis who identify with the Right, who have also become much more sensitive to terrorism over time. We discuss the implications of our findings for other democracies under threat from terrorism.