Debt policy in the economic transformation

Relevance of the research topic. In the context of transformation changes, it is important to identify the priority areas of debt policy as an instrument of socio-economic development of the country, the introduction of effective instruments for managing public debt in the institutional environment. Quite important is the study on the efficiency of debt policy. Formulation of the problem. In modern conditions, during the period of financial globalization, public debt is an integral part of the financial systems of most countries of the world. Particularly important are the priorities of debt policy for countries with a transformational economy, because they need to allocate a significant amount of financial resources to carry out and achieve effective results of reforms. It is important to develop and implement a coherent debt strategy, as well as to correct it for solving current problems. Analysis of recent research and publications. The issue of debt policy of the state is quite relevant today for the majority of countries of the world and are common in scientific works of the well-known foreign and domestic scientists. The following foreign scientists have made a significant contribution to the study of public debt and debt policy: R. Barro, D. Buchanan, A. Wagner, J. Keynes, D. Ricardo, P. Samuelson, J. Stiglitz, W. Thompson, F. Friedman and others. The theoretical and practical questions concerning the formation, management and maintenance of public debt under conditions of transformational changes in the economy are devoted to the work of such Ukrainian scientists as O. Vasylyk, I. Zapatrina, L. Lisyak, I. Lukianenko, A. Mazaraki, M. Pasichnyi, V. Fedosov, I. Chugunov and others. Selection of unexplored parts of the general problem. However, there are a number of underdeveloped issues related to the formation and repayment of public debt in the context of the transformation of the economy in both the medium and long-term periods. Setting the task, the purpose of the study. The research objective is to analyze the state debt of Ukraine as a result of the implementation of debt policy. The purpose of the study is to determine the main tasks of the debt policy of Ukraine. Method or methodology for conducting research. The combination of research methods were used in writing the article: systematic approach, statistical analysis, structuring, analysis and synthesis, and others. Presentation of the main material (results of work). Indicators of state and state-guaranteed debt in terms of repayment currencies, the structure of domestic government loans that were raised to the budget by placing bonds on the primary market were analyzed in the article. The priority tasks of the debt policy in the medium and long-term perspective were proposed. The field of application of results. The results of this study can be applied in the process of formation and implementation of Ukraine's debt policy. Conclusions according to the article. At the present stage of economic development it is important to increase the impact of the use of debt management methods based on the formation of the debt policy priorities for the medium and long term persrective. In carrying out an effective debt policy, the government should reduce the spread of crisis phenomena and debt risks, as well as reduce the total debt burden on the economy. The article defines the priority tasks of Ukraine's debt policy in the medium term.

State debt management in the context of Ukraine's economic development

Economics. Finances. Law ◽

10.37634/efp.2020.5.3 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 21-25

Author(s):

Artem HUSIEV

Keyword(s):

Economic Development ◽

Public Debt ◽

The State ◽

Economic Consequences ◽

Debt Management ◽

Optimal Decision ◽

Main Task ◽

State Budget ◽

Long Run ◽

The paper explores the theoretical and methodological basis of the concept of public debt management. The relationship between the problem of public debt and economic development of the country has been revealed. The dynamics of Ukraine's public debt for the period 2010-2019 have been analyzed. The default as a means of state debt policy has been investigated and its main economic consequences are presented. The international experience of managing public debt on the example of Argentina has been analyzed. The economic essence of technical default has been defined and the concept of technical default as a priority direction of Ukraine's state debt policy in the current conditions has been proposed. Public debt is a set of State commitments to internal and external creditors. State debt Management provides for state creation of the concept of debt policy. In economic terms, the main task of debt management is to maintain the level of public debt on a moderate level. In Ukraine, the problem of state indebtedness is particularly relevant after 2014. However, the most acute this problem was at the beginning of 2020 with the beginning of the recession economy and raising the deficit of the State budget. There are three main strategies to address public debt: investing in the country's economic development and timely repayment of liabilities, default and technical default. The strategy of investing in the country's economic development envisages emission of money or additional involvement in order to stimulate economic development, as well as timely payment of debts and interests. This strategy is appropriate in terms of relatively small amounts of public debt. Defaulted involves declaring the state insolvency payment obligations to creditors. Defaulted in the short run means a rapid deterioration in the economic situation in the country, but under certain conditions, there may be positive consequences in the long run. The technical default means the state's inability to pay debts on a certain date if there is a possibility of their payment in the future. In Ukraine today, the optimal decision of the state debt policy is the proclamation of technical default to restructure debts and prevent aggravation of socio-economic crisis in the country.

EXTERNAL GOVERNMENT DEBT MANAGEMENT OF UKRAINE IN CONDITIONS OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC AND PANDEMIC SHOCKS

WORLD OF FINANCE ◽

10.35774/sf2021.01.048 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 48-63

Author(s):

Ivanna MOROZ

Keyword(s):

Economic Development ◽

Public Debt ◽

The State ◽

Debt Management ◽

Management Policy ◽

State Budget ◽

Strategic Goals ◽

Public Debt Management ◽

The Cost ◽

Introduction. The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on macroeconomic dynamics and the state of external public debt are analised. The main reasons for the growth of the State Budget deficit of Ukraine are identified and the need to increase the efficiency of the external public debt management policy in the context of minimizing the budget deficit is proved. Emphasis is placed on the situational and imbalance of Ukraine’s external public debt management policy, which is due to the lack of the Economic Development Strategy of Ukraine and the Government’s program of activities for 2020. It is substantiated that the lack of clear strategic goals of economic development of the state and adherence to such a strategy has led to an increase in the cost of servicing external pu blic debt, increasing the cost of attracting it and reducing the maturity. It is also proved that the lack of strategy together with the low level of fiscal, debt and monetary policy coherence are the main reasons for inefficient conversion of external public debt, as the main amounts of external government borrowing are not used to finance economic development, but to finance state budget expenditures and to repay old debts. The purpose of to the article is to study the theoretical and practical aspects of debt policy in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in order to justify a new paradigm of Ukraine’s external public debt management policy. Results. Based on the analysis of major macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and identifying external debt problems, the latest paradigm of external public debt management policy is proposed, the essence of which is to subordinate debt policy to tactical and strategic goals of the national economy budget, debt and monetary policy, as well as in achieving effective conversion of external government borrowing to stimulate economic development. It is proposed to use a program-targeted method of external public debt management policy, which involves raising funds from international organizations exclusively to finance specific government programs. Perspectives. It is necessary to increase the efficiency of conversion of external government loans to finance capital investments from the State budget, which will use the foreign debt potential to stimulate Ukraine’s economic development.

IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT DEBT ON FINANCIAL SECURITY OF UKRAINE

International scientific journal Internauka Series Economical Sciences ◽

10.25313/2520-2294-2020-11-6560 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Olena Pikaliuk ◽

◽

Dmitry Kovalenko ◽

Keyword(s):

Economic Development ◽

Public Debt ◽

Positive Impact ◽

The State ◽

Financial Security ◽

State Budget ◽

The Public ◽

Debt Security ◽

The Stability ◽

One of the main criteria for economic development is the size of the public debt and its dynamics. The article considers the impact of public debt on the financial security of Ukraine. The views of scientists on the essence of public debt and financial security of the state are substantiated. An analysis of the dynamics and structure of public debt of Ukraine for 2014-2019. It is proved that one of the main criteria for economic development is the size of public debt and its dynamics. State budget deficit, attracting and using loans to cover it have led to the formation and significant growth of public debt in Ukraine. The volume of public debt indicates an increase in the debt security of the state, which is a component of financial security. Therefore, the issue of the impact of public debt on the financial security of Ukraine is becoming increasingly relevant. The constant growth and large amounts of debt make it necessary to study it, which will have a positive impact on economic processes that will ensure the stability of the financial system and enhance its security.

Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

Studia Universitatis Babe-Bolyai Oeconomica ◽

10.2478/subboec-2019-0013 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 64 (3) ◽

pp. 23-38

Author(s):

Talknice Saungweme ◽

Nicholas M. Odhiambo

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Public Debt ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Policy Formulation ◽

Debt Service ◽

Series Data ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

FACTORS OF GROWTH OF THE EFFICIENCY OF PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT

Vestnik Universiteta ◽

10.26425/1816-4277-2020-12-5-11 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 5-11

Author(s):

M. E. Kosov

Keyword(s):

Public Debt ◽

Financial Management ◽

The State ◽

Debt Management ◽

Macroeconomic Factors ◽

The Public ◽

Correlation And Regression Analysis ◽

Public Financial Management ◽

Public Debt Management ◽

Public debt is an integral part of public finances of various countries, the process of its management, including formation, maintenance and repayment has a powerful impact on the macroeconomic system of the state. The subject of the study is the public debt of the Russian Federation. The article performs a correlation and regression analysis of factors that have a direct impact on the state of the Russia’s public debt under the conditions of the restrictions caused by the Covid-19 coronavirus infection, as well as the consequences of these restrictions. The paper proposes an econometric model that describes a system of indirect macroeconomic factors that are not directly related to the state’s debt policy, but show the strongest influence on the formation of public debt in modern realities and increase the efficiency of its management, as well as reflect the quality of public financial management in general. The author concludes that the demographic burden and the indicator reflecting the ratio of the budget deficit to the total budget revenue have the greatest impact on the effectiveness of public debt management.

STATE DEBT MANAGEMENT OF UKRAINE

10.32782/2224-6282/160-20 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Oksana Vodolazska ◽

◽

Hanna Herman ◽

Keyword(s):

Public Debt ◽

Equation Model ◽

Economic Security ◽

The State ◽

Debt Management ◽

Financial Policy ◽

Security Level ◽

Macroeconomic Factors ◽

Public Debt Management ◽

Public debt management and servicing is one of the top priorities for the country’s financial policy, and an important condition for the stability of its financial system. Due to the need of solving the problem of the state debt of Ukraine growth and the cost of servicing it, it is urgent to increase the efficiency of methods for managing it. Ineffective management of Ukraine’s government borrowings, which is mainly used to cover the budget deficit, leads to a decrease in the state’s economic security level and an increase in the burden on the budgetary sphere and an aggravation of the debt situation. The maintenance and management of public debt is inextricably linked with the pursuit of a balanced debt policy and minimization of the risks inherent in public debt. The economic and social development of the country, its stability during the period of economic crises and the post-crisis speed of recovery of the national economic system depend on the efficiency and effectiveness of this management. After experiencing a deep economic crisis in 2014–2015, economic growth began to recover in 2016, and the total public debt in relation to GDP also tends to decrease. This was caused by various factors: the deficit of the state budget and balance of payments, heavy dependence on energy imports, ineffective use of attracted loans and the lack of proper debt management. This article analyzes the existing features of the formation of an effective public debt management system in the context of improving the efficiency of Ukrainian debt policy. The proposed measures of an effective management strategy will contribute to the rational use of borrowings and create the necessary conditions for optimizing the debt burden. The main goals of state debt management in Ukraine were analyzed, as well as the world practice of analyzing public expenditure and financial accountability was considered. The existing problems in the state debt management of Ukraine are identified, practical recommendations are provided for future development of the most effective scenario for solving Ukrainian debt problems. The forecast of public debt was calculated on the basis of a linear regression equation model, and the macroeconomic factors that have the biggest impact on the growth rate of public debt were determined.

Public debt of Ukraine and its influence on main socio-economic indicators

Actual problems of innovative economy ◽

10.36887/2524-0455-2020-1-1 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 5-10

Author(s):

Sergii Stepanenko

Keyword(s):

Economic Development ◽

Public Debt ◽

The State ◽

Debt Management ◽

Economic Indicators ◽

The Public ◽

Goods And Services ◽

Socio Economic Development ◽

Debt Dynamics ◽

Public Debt Management

Introduction. Solving the problem of public debt management is one of the key factors of economic stability in the country. The budget capacity of the state and the stability of its national currency largely depend on the nature of the debt problem settlement. The need to address these issues requires finding ways to improve the mechanism of public debt management and servicing in Ukraine. The purpose of the article is to study the public debt dynamics of Ukraine and model the nature of its impact on key socio-economic indicators in modern conditions. Results. The dynamics and structure of the state and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine for the period 2013-2019 are analyzed. The negative dynamics of the growth of the total amount of debt during 2014-2018 is determined. In 2019, the total amount of debt in hryvnia decreased due to the reduction of external and guaranteed debt, but in dollar terms increased, which threatens the financial stability of the country. Using the software product EViews 10 based on the Granger causality test, the system of causal relationships between the dynamics of public debt (index) and indicators of socio-economic development: GDP growth rate, industrial production index, real income index, employment index, the index of exports of goods and services, the index of imports of goods and services has been researched. On the basis of the established causal relations the autoregressive influence models of the public debt dynamics on indicators of social and economic development are constructed, on which the error does not exceed 5%. Conclusions. According to the results of the constructed models, the negative impact of public debt on the main socio-economic indicators is determined, which is confirmed by the negative values of the elasticity indexes of socio-economic indicators. The built models serve as a preventive tool of public debt management, with the help of which it is possible to promptly respond to threats to socio-economic development by monitoring the level of public debt dynamics. Key words: public debt, public debt management, socio-economic development, financial security of the state.

The system of public debt management in conditions of institutional transformations

University Economic Bulletin ◽

10.31470/2306-546x-2019-43-160-166 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 160-166

Author(s):

Valentyna Makogon

Keyword(s):

Economic Development ◽

Public Debt ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Scientific Research ◽

Debt Management ◽

Institutional Reforms ◽

Public Debt Management ◽

Debt Policy ◽

Macroeconomic Stability

Relevance of research topic. In the context of institutional reforms, the issue of the limited state financial resources for the implementation of the tasks and functions entrusted to them by state authorities and local self-government is being updated, which predetermines the development of a system of public debt management, which is a powerful instrument of macroeconomic policy. At the same time, the growth of the level of public debt in both developed and transformational economies is conditioned by a number of factors, the most important of which are: the formation of a budget deficit that is of a permanent nature; the need for public expenditures aimed at ensuring macroeconomic stability and accelerating the pace of economic growth, the development of the social sphere. Formulation of the problem. In the context of institutional reforms, the important task is to develop a debt strategy that will ensure the concentration of limited investment resources in those sectors of the economy that will accelerate the pace of economic growth, which requires further scientific research of the theoretical and applied aspects of the formation and implementation of budgetary and debt policies, their coherence, improvement the mechanism of public debt management. At the same time, the choice of tools for managing public debt can both negatively and positively affect macroeconomic stability in the country. Analysis of recent research and publications. The problem of public debt management is rather widespread in scientific research. These are works by well-known domestic and foreign scholars: J. Buchanan, U. Mitchell, J. M. Keynes, T. Bogolib, I. Zapatrina, L. Lisyak, I. Chugunov and others. Identification of unexplored parts of the general problem. The above issues are actualized in connection with the intensification of globalization processes, the adverse external and internal economic environment, which requires the solution of a number of specific tasks related to the formation of public debt at an economically sound level. Setting the task, the purpose of the study. The objectives of the study are: to reveal the role of the system of public debt management in the regulation of socio-economic processes, to justify the relationship between debt and budget policy; carry out an analysis and assessment of Ukraine's state debt; to identify the main factors influencing the level of public debt; to clarify the provision for improving the efficiency of the mechanism of public debt management. The purpose of the study is to substantiate the priority tasks of debt policy in the context of institutional transformations. Method or methodology of conducting research. The article uses a set of methods of scientific research: system approach, statistical analysis, structuring, analysis, synthesis, and others. Presentation of the main material (results of work). The role of public debt in state regulation of social and economic development of the country is determined. The analysis and evaluation of public debt has been carried out. The priority tasks of the debt policy in the context of institutional transformations are substantiated. The field of application of results. The results of this study can be applied in the process of formation and implementation of Ukraine's debt policy, reforming the system of public finances. Conclusions according to the article. Ensuring macroeconomic stability in the country involves the development of an effective strategy for managing the public debt, justifying the strategic priorities of debt policy, based on realistic forecast indicators of the country's economic development. The improvement of the mechanism for managing public debt should be based on a clear combination of legally defined budgetary and debt policy instruments. The use of indicators of a structured, cyclically-adjusted balance can increase the validity of fiscal and debt policies. The high level of government debt and significant budget deficits create risks for financial and macroeconomic stability, their potential negative impact on economic development is far more devastating than the pro-cyclical nature of fiscal policies that only affect the economic dynamics in the short term. Accordingly, the important task of fiscal policy is to prevent the growth of public debt and budget deficit while limiting the negative impact of further fiscal consolidation on aggregate demand. The article defines the strategic priorities of debt policy in the context of institutional transformations.

Exports diversification as a key point of Сhina’s trade strategy

University Economic Bulletin ◽

10.31470/2306-546x-2021-50-96-105 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 96-105

Author(s):

Natallia Shalupayeva

Keyword(s):

Economic Development ◽

Foreign Trade ◽

Rapid Development ◽

Economic Transformation ◽

High Tech ◽

National Bureau ◽

Export Diversification ◽

Economic Diversification ◽

The World ◽

Nowadays, economic diversification remains a key challenge for most developing countries. The world trading system is developing from universal liberalization to increased protectionism which imposes additional difficulties in countries’ exports development and puts export diversification at the heart of a strategy for economic diversification. China's foreign trade is also in a critical period of rapid development and transformation at present. China is building a new pattern of integration into the world economic system, but its economic transformation is not smooth and faces problems. Taking into account China’s high reliance on exports, one of the most important threat to China’s economic development – the susceptibility to fluctuations in global economy – is largely due to a low level of Chinese exports diversification. In order to achieve a more sustainable long-term economic growth and hedge against the impact of external shocks China needs to diversify its exports markets, range of exported products and trade methods. Purpose. The purpose of the article is the research of practical aspects of exports diversification in China, identification of features and problems of China’s exports product and market diversification, diversification of trade methods and high-tech products exports diversification. Methodology. The methodological basis of the study is presented by the theories of foreign trade and industrial policy, as well as by the researches realized in the field of exports diversification. The information basis of the study are the databases of UNCTAD, WTO and National Bureau of Statistics of China. General scientific methods, systematic approach, economic-statistical methods are used in the research. Findings. An analysis of China’s exports diversification was realized in the article, including revealing of features and problems of China’s exports product and market diversification, diversification of trade methods and high-tech products exports diversification, as well as identification of some driving effects of China’s exports diversification on its economic development and substantiation of the significance to improve its export diversification strategy in order to reduce economic risks and promote the sustainable development of foreign trade.

The Impact of Public Debt in Economic Growth

Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies ◽

10.36941/ajis-2020-0072 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (4) ◽

pp. 177

Author(s):

Ariana Xhemajli Selimaj ◽

Bedri Statovci ◽

Alma Shehu Lokaj ◽

Ermira Beqiri

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Economic Development ◽

Public Debt ◽

Financial Stability ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Debt Management ◽

Public Expenditures ◽

Economic Growth Rate ◽

Different countries around the world, in addition to collecting public revenues as sources to cover public expenditures, also need other sources of funding, because frequently, most countries cannot generate sufficient budgetary revenue to afford all the budget expenditures. This is one of the reasons why public debt is created. There is always debate among economists as to what the optimal percentage of public debt should be so as not to impede the economic development of a country. To avoid impediments to economic development, then public debt management needs to be done properly so that it is earmarked for adequate projects that will contribute to economic growth and development. In this paper, we will analyse the impact of public debt on economic growth. Kosovo serves as our case study for the period 2009-2016, where remittances, exports, increase of average payments and subsidies were considered as other influencing factors. The prudent use of public debt, such as in various investments, job creation, and productivity growth, can all contribute to economic growth and financial stability. Otherwise, misuse of public debt will inadvertently affect the country’s destabilization, create an inflationary situation, and will only continue to increase liabilities to lenders – essentially, it will have no positive impact on the country. Reckless use of public debt will have a direct effect on lowering the economic growth rate.