Proposal on the Definition of the New Social Indicator, the Effective Total Dependency Ratio, and its Application - Focusing on the Effects on Raising Fertility Rate, Migration and Extending Retirement Age -

2018 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 91-116
Author(s):  
Sun-Mi Lee ◽  
Hae-Ryeon Song
Keyword(s):  
Social Indicator ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Definition Of

ECONOMIC-DEMOGRAPHIC DEPENDENCY RATIO IN A LIFE-CYCLE MODEL

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (7) ◽  
pp. 1635-1673
Author(s):  
Sau-Him P. Lau ◽  
Albert K. Tsui
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Life Cycle Model ◽  
Cycle Model ◽  
Stochastic Mortality ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Parameter Values

The conventional dependency ratio based on cohort-invariant cutoff points could overstate the true burden of population aging. Using optimal cohort-varying years of schooling and retirement age in a life-cycle model, we propose a modified definition of dependency ratio. We compare the proposed economic-demographic dependency ratio (EDDR) with the conventional definition and find that the conventional dependency ratio of the USA is projected to increase by 0.105 from 2010 to 2060, which is an over-projection of 86% when compared with the projected increase of 0.015 in the EDDR over the same period. Sensitivity analysis suggests that our finding is quite robust to reasonable changes in parameter values (except for one parameter), and the magnitude of over-projection ranges mainly from 0.079 to 0.102 (i.e., 75% to 97%). We follow the well-established Lee–Carter model to forecast stochastic mortality and employ the method of expanding duration to decompose the sources of over-projection.

scholarly journals A Study of Aging Population and Central Provident Fund System in Macao

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 40
Author(s):  
Tang, Tang, Kai Hong
Keyword(s):  
Population Structure ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Aging Population ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Special Administrative Region ◽  
Administrative Region ◽  
General Rules ◽  
The Government ◽  
Provident Fund

The world's overall fertility rate is declining while the life expectancy is increasing, the population structure is aging, the dependency ratio in Macao will steadily increase to 38.6% at the end of 2031. The median age of Macao is rising from Aged 38.1 to 45.5 during the period of 2011 to 2031. In this view, Macao becomes the aging society.In order to establish a basis for the establishment of a central provident fund system, the Macao SAR Government implemented the central savings system in 2009 through the General Rules for the Establishment and Management of Individual Accounts of the Central Savings System through Administrative Regulation No. 31/2009 to allocate funds for eligible account holders, Subsequently, the Government of the Macau Special Administrative Region (SAR) promulgated the Act "Non-mandatory Central Provident Fund System".

scholarly journals Demographics, Labour Market, and Pension Sustainability in Hungary

2020 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 146-171
Author(s):  
András Olivér Németh ◽  
Petra Németh ◽  
Péter Vékás
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Pension System ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Market Trends ◽  
Employment Rates ◽  
Age Dependency Ratio

The sustainability of an unfunded pension system depends highly on demographic and labour market trends, i.e. how fertility, mortality, and employment rates change. In this paper we provide a brief summary of recent developments in these fields in Hungary and draw up a picture of the current situation. Then, we forecast the path of the economic old-age dependency ratio, i.e. the ratio of the elderly and employed populations. We make different alternative assumptions about fertility, mortality, and employment rates. According to our baseline scenario the dependency ratio is expected to rise from 40.6% to 77% by 2050. Such a sharp increase makes policy intervention inevitable. Based on our sensitivity analysis, the only viable remedy is increasing the retirement age.

scholarly journals Reversing the Malthusian paradigm on retirement age

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Deboosere ◽  
Hadewijch Vandenheede
Keyword(s):  
Pension System ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Age Composition ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
The Social ◽  
Productivity Increase ◽  
Il Y A ◽  
Economic Thinking

RésuméLa démographie a toujours influencé la pensée politique. La décision récente d’aug­menter l’âge à la pension dans beaucoup de pays développés est inspirée par l’évo­lution importante de la composition par âge de la population. Mais il y a en réalité peu d’arguments pour augmenter l’âge à la retraite si l’on tient compte de l’ensem­ble des données démographiques et économiques. Une interprétation souvent trop simpliste et même parfois erronée d’indicateurs démographiques contribue à cette démarche. L’utilisation systématique d’indicateurs démographiques dans la discussion sur la viabilité du système des pensions et de la sécurité sociale est selon nous souvent inspirée par la théorie de l’économie de l’offre. Un aspect crucial est le fait que la croissance de la productivité est ignorée ou minimisée. À cet égard, la discussion actuelle présente une profonde similitude avec l’approche Malthusienne de la population.AbstractDemography always influenced political thinking. The recent decision to increase the age of retirement in many high-income countries is driven by a dramatic chan­ge in the age composition of the population. We argue that there is in fact no need to increase the age of retirement and that many aspects of the current evolution both in demography and in economy are overlooked. Moreover, some demographic indicators such as life expectancy or the dependency ratio are often interpreted in a simplistic and erroneous way. The systematic use of demographic indicators to discuss the sustainability of the pension system and of the social security system is in our view often inspired by the supply-side way of economic thinking. A crucial aspect is that productivity increase is ignored or minimalized in the discussion. In this regard the discussion has many similarities with the Malthusian approach of the population question.

scholarly journals Fertility and Religiosity in Russia: Assessing Interaction

2019 ◽  
pp. 104-115
Author(s):  
Eugenia Sigareva ◽  
Svetlana Sivoplyasova
Keyword(s):  
Reproductive Behavior ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Religious Organizations ◽  
Russian Society ◽  
Religious Factor ◽  
Indirect Indicator ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Role Of Religion ◽  
The Impact

The present study is devoted to the definition of the role of religion in the formation of reproductive behavior and attitudes of the population of the Russian Federation. Within the study the authors found out that the issue of religiosity of the population and its impact on reproductive behavior are widely discussed both in the scientific community and among the spiritual leaders of various faiths. The significance of the religious factor is greatly exaggerated. In this regard, the authors tried to find objective, statistically significant and comparable parameters to assess the level of religiosity of Russian society and its impact on the reproductive behavior of the population. First of all, the authors assessed dynamics of the number of religious organizations. This is an indirect indicator of the level of spread of different religions in the country. The analysis showed an increase in the number of religious organizations, which may indirectly indicate an increase in the religiosity of the population. In addition, to assess the impact of religiosity on the reproductive behavior of the Russian population, an original approach was used, which is an analysis "from the opposite". On the basis of statistical data on the level of the total fertility rate in the regions of the country, two groups of subjects were formed – with the highest and the lowest levels of this indicator. Further, in the selected regions, the authors made an attempt to assess the level of religiosity. However, the study was conducted not within a group of believers, but a group of atheists. The results of the analysis showed that the level of religiosity of the younger generation of Russians has very little effect on their reproductive attitudes. Moreover, on the basis of indicators of the number of religious organizations in the subjects of Russia, the proportion of persons professing a particular religion in the total population of the regions and the total fertility rate for 2011-2016 were carried out correlation and regression analyses, which confirmed the weak relationship between the level of religiosity and fertility in modern Russia.

Role of demographic factors in economic growth of South Asian countries

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kashif Munir ◽  
Faqeer Syed Umaid Shahid
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Demographic Factors ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeThis study examines the long-run and short-run impact of demographic factors, i.e. life expectancy, fertility rate and young dependency ratio in determining the economic growth of South Asian countries.Design/methodology/approachThe theoretical foundation of the study relies on demographic transition theory and incorporates life expectancy, fertility rate and young dependency ratio into the production function by means of human capital component. The study uses annual panel data of four South Asian courtiers, i.e. Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka from 1980 to 2018 and utilizes panel ARDL model to analyze the long run and short run impact of demographic factors on economic growth.FindingsResults show that real stock of capital, fertility rate and life expectancy are positively related with economic growth, while an increase in young dependency ratio reduces economic growth in South Asian countries in the long run. Short-run dynamics show that real stock of capital and life expectancy have insignificant impact on economic growth, while young dependency ratio has negative and significant as well as life expectancy has positive and significant impact on economic growth in South Asian countries. Unidirectional causality exists from young dependency ratio and fertility rate to GDP per capita in the short run.Practical implicationsGovernment has to design policies for better health and education facilities to yield high economic growth as well as better infrastructure and macroeconomic stability to facilitate capital accumulation in the region to foster economic growth.Originality/valueThis study considerably adds into the existing literature by providing better understanding of various demographic aspects and their economic inference by highlighting the demographic changes that South Asia has endured. This study is also beneficial for policymakers and growth analysts in generating effective and sustainable policies regarding population dynamics and economic development of the region.

scholarly journals Population Growth and Life Expectancy in Nigeria: Issues and Further Considerations

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. p30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oladayo Timothy POPOOLA
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Average Life Expectancy ◽  
Causality Test

This study empirically investigates the effects of population growth on average life expectancy in Nigeria taking into account the explicit role of healthy citizens in economic development as well as other control variables not considered in prior studies. Predicted on country-specific regression and Granger Causality test using time series data between 1986 and 2015, the findings reveal that rising population growth have positive and insignificantly impacts life expectancy; but 1% decrease in fertility rate and population of 65-and-above dependency ratio could positively stimulates an improvement in longevity by 5.84, and 81.5 respectively in Nigeria. Furthermore, the granger causality test shows that population growth could granger cause low life expectancy in Nigeria at least at 10% level of significant. The findings therefore make a case for strengthening efforts towards reducing both fertility rate and age 65 and above dependency ratio with priority given to the welfare of ages 65 and above population in Nigeria.

Policy Indicators: a Continuing and Needed Field

1989 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 437-438
Author(s):  
Duncan Macrae
Keyword(s):  
Quality Control ◽  
Political System ◽  
Social Indicator ◽  
Policy Choice ◽  
Academic Disciplines ◽  
The Political ◽  
Science And Policy ◽  
Social Indicator Movement ◽  
The Social ◽  
Definition Of

The social indicator movement has always faced in two directions—toward academic disciplines that provide quality control and estimate causal relations, and toward the political system that chooses and uses indicator statistics. At worst, the movement has risked appearing to be peripheral to both theoretical social science and policy choice; such perceptions may have contributed to the movement's weakening. The use of noneconomic time series of data to guide the definition of public problems, however, did not and will not die away.

Introductory paper

1966 ◽  
Vol 24 ◽  
pp. 3-5
Author(s):  
W. W. Morgan
Keyword(s):  
Line Intensity ◽  
Classification Scheme ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Spectral Classification ◽  
Dimensional Array ◽  
Rr Lyrae ◽  
Metallic Line ◽  
Introductory Paper ◽  
Parameter Varying ◽  
Definition Of

1. The definition of “normal” stars in spectral classification changes with time; at the time of the publication of theYerkes Spectral Atlasthe term “normal” was applied to stars whose spectra could be fitted smoothly into a two-dimensional array. Thus, at that time, weak-lined spectra (RR Lyrae and HD 140283) would have been considered peculiar. At the present time we would tend to classify such spectra as “normal”—in a more complicated classification scheme which would have a parameter varying with metallic-line intensity within a specific spectral subdivision.

2.2. Working Group 2: Conceptual Definitions of Reference Coordinate Systems for Earth Dynamics

1975 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 21-26
Keyword(s):  
Coordinate System ◽  
Working Group ◽  
General Character ◽  
Coordinate Systems ◽  
Reference Coordinate System ◽  
Group 2 ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Earth Dynamics

An ideal definition of a reference coordinate system should meet the following general requirements:1. It should be as conceptually simple as possible, so its philosophy is well understood by the users.2. It should imply as few physical assumptions as possible. Wherever they are necessary, such assumptions should be of a very general character and, in particular, they should not be dependent upon astronomical and geophysical detailed theories.3. It should suggest a materialization that is dynamically stable and is accessible to observations with the required accuracy.

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