scholarly journals Reversing the Malthusian paradigm on retirement age

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Deboosere ◽  
Hadewijch Vandenheede
Keyword(s):  
Pension System ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Age Composition ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
The Social ◽  
Productivity Increase ◽  
Il Y A ◽  
Economic Thinking

RésuméLa démographie a toujours influencé la pensée politique. La décision récente d’aug­menter l’âge à la pension dans beaucoup de pays développés est inspirée par l’évo­lution importante de la composition par âge de la population. Mais il y a en réalité peu d’arguments pour augmenter l’âge à la retraite si l’on tient compte de l’ensem­ble des données démographiques et économiques. Une interprétation souvent trop simpliste et même parfois erronée d’indicateurs démographiques contribue à cette démarche. L’utilisation systématique d’indicateurs démographiques dans la discussion sur la viabilité du système des pensions et de la sécurité sociale est selon nous souvent inspirée par la théorie de l’économie de l’offre. Un aspect crucial est le fait que la croissance de la productivité est ignorée ou minimisée. À cet égard, la discussion actuelle présente une profonde similitude avec l’approche Malthusienne de la population.AbstractDemography always influenced political thinking. The recent decision to increase the age of retirement in many high-income countries is driven by a dramatic chan­ge in the age composition of the population. We argue that there is in fact no need to increase the age of retirement and that many aspects of the current evolution both in demography and in economy are overlooked. Moreover, some demographic indicators such as life expectancy or the dependency ratio are often interpreted in a simplistic and erroneous way. The systematic use of demographic indicators to discuss the sustainability of the pension system and of the social security system is in our view often inspired by the supply-side way of economic thinking. A crucial aspect is that productivity increase is ignored or minimalized in the discussion. In this regard the discussion has many similarities with the Malthusian approach of the population question.

scholarly journals Demographics, Labour Market, and Pension Sustainability in Hungary

2020 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 146-171
Author(s):  
András Olivér Németh ◽  
Petra Németh ◽  
Péter Vékás
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Pension System ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Market Trends ◽  
Employment Rates ◽  
Age Dependency Ratio

The sustainability of an unfunded pension system depends highly on demographic and labour market trends, i.e. how fertility, mortality, and employment rates change. In this paper we provide a brief summary of recent developments in these fields in Hungary and draw up a picture of the current situation. Then, we forecast the path of the economic old-age dependency ratio, i.e. the ratio of the elderly and employed populations. We make different alternative assumptions about fertility, mortality, and employment rates. According to our baseline scenario the dependency ratio is expected to rise from 40.6% to 77% by 2050. Such a sharp increase makes policy intervention inevitable. Based on our sensitivity analysis, the only viable remedy is increasing the retirement age.

Retirees without pensions and welfare: The social effects of pension privatization in Poland

2017 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 407-417 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piotr Żuk ◽  
Paweł Żuk
Keyword(s):  
Pension System ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Social Effects ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Complete Elimination ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Future ◽  
Law And Justice ◽  
The Right

This article describes the chaos caused by the 1999 privatization of the pension system in Poland. The recent measures taken by the right-wing populist government of the Law and Justice (PiS) party, which reduced the retirement age and announced the complete elimination of ‘open’ (private) pension funds at the end of 2016, have not improved the situation of present and future retirees. Various forecasts show that the elderly will not be able to count on state aid in the future. The future of retired women (who tend to be less economically active) and those employed on ‘junk contracts’, from which social security contributions were not deducted, seems to be completely hopeless.

scholarly journals Pension policies in a model with endogenous fertility

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 109-125 ◽  
Author(s):  
GIAM PIETRO CIPRIANI ◽  
FRANCESCO PASCUCCI
Keyword(s):  
Overlapping Generations ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Endogenous Fertility ◽  
Contribution Rate ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Overlapping Generations Model ◽  
The Social ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Set Up

AbstractWe set up an overlapping-generations model with endogenous fertility to study pensions policies in an ageing economy. We show that an increasing life expectancy may not be detrimental for the economy or the pension system itself. On the other hand, conventional policy measures, such as increasing the retirement age or changing the social security contribution rate could have undesired general equilibrium effects. In particular, both policies decrease capital per worker and might have negative effects on the fertility rate, thus exacerbating population ageing.

scholarly journals An Analysis on Social Security in Brazil Based on Maranhão

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Fernando Silva Lima ◽  
Alessandra Silva Pires ◽  
Francisco De Assis Pereira Filho ◽  
Michelle Matilde Semiguem Lima Trombini
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Constitutional Amendment ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Financial Situation ◽  
The Social ◽  
Minimum Age

This study begins with the question: can the new change in the old-age pension system improve the economic-financial performance of the National Institute of Social Security in Brazil? The hypothesis is that the proposed constitutional amendment (PEC) 287/16, which is being presented at the Chamber of Deputies known as the pension reform, including an attempt to change the minimum age for men and women, will not solve the problem of economic crisis and financial expenses of the National Institute of Social Security of Brazil, due to the fact that the greatest impact may be other expenses not identified in this study that revolve around the benefits of retirement. The general objective is to analyze the economic and financial situation of social security in Brazil based on the regional accounting records located in Imperatriz and São Luís do Maranhão between 2008 and 2017. The methodology was defined as descriptive, explanatory and average, such as bibliofigurey, documentary and field. One of the results regarding the increase in the retirement age shows that there is no relation between the income increase indicators when compared to the surplus (profit) or deficit (loss) between 2008 and 2017 in the Social Security of Maranhão.

scholarly journals Incentives to retire later – a solution to the social security crisis?

2002 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
FRIEDRICH BREYER ◽  
MATHIAS KIFMANN
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Social Security Systems ◽  
Security Systems ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Social ◽  
Unfunded Social Security ◽  
Increasing Function

As one possible solution to the well-known financing crisis of unfunded social security systems, an increase in the retirement age is a popular option. To induce workers to retire later, it has been proposed to strengthen the link between retirement age and benefit level. The present paper is devoted to analyzing the long-run financial implications of such a reform. We show that with actuarial adjustments the long-run contribution rate is an increasing function of the retirement age chosen by workers. Moreover, the implicit tax paid to the pension system by a participant can increase in the long run if the retirement age rises in response to a ‘steep’ adjustment rule. In this sense, the proposed ‘cure’ may worsen the disease. Finally, we show how the negative effects can be avoided by forming a capital stock from the additional revenues due to later retirement.

Population Policies in Turkey and Demographic Changes on a Social Map

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 240-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Murat Yucesahin ◽  
Tuğba Adalı ◽  
A Sinan Türkyılmaz
Keyword(s):  
Population Policy ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Demographic Changes ◽  
Demographic Transitions ◽  
Population Policies ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
The Social ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Low Levels

Compared to its past structure, Turkey is now a country with low levels of fertility and mortality. This junction that Turkey now has reached is associated with a number of risks, such as an ageing population, and a decreasing working-age population. The antinatalist policy era of Turkey was followed by a period of maintenance, yet the recent demographic changes formed the basis of a pronatalist population policy from the government’s view. This study discusses the link between demographic change and population policies in Turkey. It further aims to position Turkey spatially in relation to selected countries that are in various stages of their demographic transitions with different population policies, using a multidimensional scaling approach with data on 25 selected countries from the UN. The analysis is based on a 34-year period, 1975-2009, so as to better demonstrate Turkey’s international position on a social map, past and present. Our findings suggest that Turkey’s position on the social map shifted towards developed countries over time in terms of demographic indicators and population policies. 

ANALYTICAL INDICATOR. ANALYSIS OF THE REAL STATE OF DYNAMICS OF MORTALITY OF THE POPULATION OF RUSSIA FROM MALIGNANT TUMORS AND CHANGES IN ITS STRUCTURE

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 205-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Merabishvili
Keyword(s):  
Malignant Tumors ◽  
Specific Weight ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Age Composition ◽  
The Real ◽  
Indicator Analysis ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Real State

The mortality rate is one of the most important criteria for assessing the health of the population. However, it is important to use analytical indicators correctly, especially when evaluating time series. The value of the “gross” mortality is closely linked with a specific weight of persons of elderly and senile ages. All international publications (WHO, IARC, territorial cancer registers) assess the dynamics of morbidity and mortality only by standardized indicators that eliminate the difference in the age composition of the compared population groups. In Russia, from 1960 to 2017, the share of people of retirement age has increased more than 2 times. The structure of mortality from malignant tumors has changed dramatically. The paper presents the dynamics of gross and standardized mortality rates from malignant tumors in Russia and in all administrative territories. Shows the real success of the Oncology service. The medium-term interval forecast until 2025 has been calculated.

scholarly journals Actuarial deductions for early retirement

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-27
Author(s):  
Markus Knell
Keyword(s):  
Early Retirement ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Budget Constraint ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Single Individual ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Market Interest Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Retirement Behavior ◽  
The Right

Abstract This paper studies how the rates of deduction for early retirement have to be determined in pay-as-you-go (PAYG) systems in order to keep their budget stable. The derivation of these deductions requires the use of a multiperiod intertemporal budget constraint that involves assumptions about the retirement behavior of past, present, and future cohorts. In general, it is not possible to calculate budget-neutral deductions from the budget constraint of a single individual who retires before the target retirement age—an approach that dominates the related literature. Only for specific cases one can use this second approach but then one has to adjust the discount rate to the assumption about collective retirement. If there is only one deviating individual, then the right choice is the market interest rate while for a stationary retirement distribution it is the internal rate of return of the PAYG system. In this case, the necessary deductions are lower than under the standard approach. This is also true for retirement ages that fluctuate randomly around a stationary distribution. Various long-run developments (e.g., increases in life expectancy or permanent changes in the average retirement age) might cause challenges for the sustainability of the pension system. These developments, however, can only be dealt with by adequate adjustments to the basic pension formulas and not by the use of deduction rates.

Transitioning to a higher retirement age with exponential and quasi-hyperbolic discounters in mixed economies

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Lynne Salvador Daway-Ducanes
Keyword(s):  
Overlapping Generations ◽  
Hyperbolic Discounting ◽  
Welfare Effects ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Welfare Impacts ◽  
The Social ◽  
Welfare Implications ◽  
Pension Benefits ◽  
Exponential Discounting

Abstract This paper analyses the macroeconomic and welfare effects of a higher retirement age within a dynamic overlapping generations framework, wherein exponential discounting and sophisticated quasi-hyperbolic discounting agents coexist in ‘mixed economies’. The transitional dynamics of economic aggregates depend on the proportion of QHD agents, and the extent to which reducing the social security tax rate mitigates crowding-out effects on savings and enables both lower pension contributions and higher pension benefits. Welfare impacts across agent types and cohorts differ accordingly: QHD agents employ the higher retirement age as a commitment mechanism to mitigate the adverse welfare implications of present-biasedness.

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