NUMERICAL MODELS’ APPLICATION FOR MORPHODYNAMICS ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE MINHO RIVER ESTUARY

Purpose – Scenarios have become a vital methodological approach in business as well as in public policy. When scenarios are used to guide analysis and decision-making, the aim is typically robustness and in this context we argue that two main problems at scenario set level is conservatism, i.e. all scenarios are close to a perceived business-as-usual trajectory and lack of balance in the sense of arbitrarily mixing some conservative and some extreme scenarios. The purpose of this paper is to address these shortcomings by proposing a methodology for generating sets of scenarios which are in a mathematical sense maximally diverse. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, we develop a systematic methodology, Scenario Diversity Analysis (SDA), which addresses the problems of broad span vs conservatism and imbalance. From a given set of variables with associated states, SDA generates scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best span the whole set of feasible scenarios. Findings – The usefulness of the methodology is exemplified by applying it to sets of storylines of the emissions scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This ex-post analysis shows that the storylines were not maximally diverse and given the challenges ahead with regard to emissions reduction and adaptation planning, we argue that it is important to strive for diversity when developing scenario sets for climate change research. Originality/value – The proposed methodology adds significant novel features to the field of systematic scenario generation, especially with regard to scenario diversity. The methodology also enables the combination of systematics with the distinct future logics of good intuitive logics scenarios.

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Hot spots - cold spots - what dots? A critical reflection on integrated climate risk assessments – example flood risk in Austria

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21646 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Stefan Kienberger ◽

Jutta-Lucia Leis

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Risk Analysis ◽

Hot Spots ◽

Methodological Approach ◽

Climate Risk ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Physical Vulnerability ◽

Contributing Factors ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Adaptation Measures

Climate risk, and related impacts, are determined by a variety of natural, climatological and socio-economic factors. In its fifth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has adapted the concept and terminology in this respect. The challenge is: How can relevant influencing factors be identified and integrated? And, how can these factors be represented spatially and integratively in order to provide decision makers with a sound basis for adaptation measures? The central starting question is: Where do I do what (and when)? Within the Austrian ACRP project 'RESPECT', a novel climate change risk analysis for the natural hazard 'flooding' was developed. Special attention is paid to the modelling of socio-economic and physical vulnerability and its integration into a spatially explicit climate risk analysis. As a result, spatial and thematic hotspots of social and physical vulnerability and climate risk for Austria are identified, which serve as a basis for the identification of adaptation measures.As a result, climate risk maps are available for Austria, which show risk and vulnerability hotspots as homogeneous spatial regions, independent from administrative boundaries and traditional raster-based approaches. These hotspots are quantitatively evaluated by an index value as a measure of climate risk. In addition to the purely quantitative evaluation, it is also possible to characterise and present the spatial units qualitatively, in terms of 'problem areas' and contributing factors. This is a significant development compared to 'traditional' spatial units (grid cell based; based on administrative units). Thus the question mentioned at the beginning can be answered - where are which intervention measures necessary. The results are available for socio-economic and physical climate risk, which are flanked by corresponding hazard and vulnerability maps. Results for the present and the future have been produced using proxy indicators from the high-resolution Austrian climate change scenario data (&#214;KS15). This makes it possible to identify future hot spots under the assumption of different climate scenarios. The presentations presents the adapted risk concept and methodological approach, respectively, and reflects critically on the opportunities and challenges of climate risk analysis in Austria and in general for the planning of climate change adaptation measures.&#160;&#160;

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Quo Vadis Lakes Azuei and Enriquillo: A Future Outlook for Two of the Caribbean Basin’s Largest Lakes

Hydrology ◽

10.3390/hydrology8030107 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 (3) ◽

pp. 107

Author(s):

Mahrokh Moknatian ◽

Michael Piasecki

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Numerical Models ◽

Anthropogenic Impacts ◽

Arable Land ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Small Community ◽

Forecast Horizon ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Quo Vadis ◽

Forcing Mechanisms

Lakes Azuei (LA) and Enriquillo (LE) on Hispaniola Island started expanding in 2005 and continued to do so until 2016. After inundating large swaths of arable land, submerging a small community, and threatening to swallow a significant trade route between the Dominican Republic and Haiti; worries persisted at how far this seemingly unstoppable expansion would go. The paper outlines the approach to a look forward to answer this question vis-à-vis climate change scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It uses numerical representations of the two lakes, and it examines how the lakes might evolve, deploying three different forcing mechanisms: that of weather and drift due to climate change, that of extreme events, such as hurricanes, and that of anthropogenic impacts, such as unintended water transfers between adjacent watersheds. Runs are executed Monte Carlo style using 11 different forcing combinations, each with a thousand instances of results generated by varying the numerous parameters that define the numerical models. The results are necessarily not precise and vary significantly as the forecast horizon expands, creating expanding envelopes of outcomes. Although some outcomes suggest a continued rise of the lake levels, most scenarios yield a reduction and recession of the lake waters.

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Isentropic Slopes, Downgradient Eddy Fluxes, and the Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation Response to Tropical Tropospheric Heating

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences ◽

10.1175/jas-d-10-05025.1 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 68 (10) ◽

pp. 2292-2305 ◽

Cited By ~ 35

Author(s):

Amy H. Butler ◽

David W. J. Thompson ◽

Thomas Birner

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Numerical Models ◽

Lower Troposphere ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Heat Fluxes ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Poleward Shift ◽

Eddy Fluxes ◽

Tropospheric Heating

Abstract Climate change experiments run on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)–class numerical models consistently suggest that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases will lead to a poleward shift of the midlatitude jets and their associated eddy fluxes of heat and potential vorticity (PV). Experiments run on idealized models suggest that the poleward contraction of the jets can be traced to the effects of increased latent heating and thus locally enhanced warming in the tropical troposphere. Here the authors provide new insights into the dynamics of the circulation response to tropical tropospheric heating using transient experiments in an idealized general circulation model. It is argued that the response of the midlatitude jets to tropical heating is driven fundamentally by 1) the projection of the heating onto the meridional slope of the lower tropospheric isentropic surfaces, and 2) a diffusive model of the eddy fluxes of heat and PV. In the lower and middle troposphere, regions where the meridional slope of the isentropes (i.e., the baroclinicity) is increased are marked by anomalously poleward eddy fluxes of heat, and vice versa. Near the tropopause, regions where the meridional gradients in PV are increased are characterized by anomalously equatorward eddy fluxes of PV, and vice versa. The barotropic component of the response is shown to be closely approximated by the changes in the lower-level heat fluxes. As such, the changes in the eddy fluxes of momentum near the tropopause appear to be driven primarily by the changes in wave generation in the lower troposphere.

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A Coastal Flood Early-Warning System Based on Offshore Sea State Forecasts and Artificial Neural Networks

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering ◽

10.3390/jmse9111272 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (11) ◽

pp. 1272

Author(s):

Michalis Chondros ◽

Anastasios Metallinos ◽

Andreas Papadimitriou ◽

Constantine Memos ◽

Vasiliki Tsoukala

Keyword(s):

Early Warning ◽

Early Warning System ◽

Sea Water ◽

Numerical Models ◽

Methodological Approach ◽

Warning System ◽

Sea State ◽

Flood Risks ◽

Coastal Flood ◽

Artificial Neural

An integrated methodological approach to the development of a coastal flood early-warning system is presented in this paper to improve societal preparedness for coastal flood events. The approach consists of two frameworks, namely the Hindcast Framework and the Forecast Framework. The aim of the former is to implement a suite of high-credibility numerical models and validate them according to past flooding events, while the latter takes advantage of these validated models and runs a plethora of scenarios representing distinct sea-state events to train an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) that is capable of predicting the impending coastal flood risks. The proposed approach was applied in the flood-prone coastal area of Rethymno in the Island of Crete in Greece. The performance of the developed ANN is good, given the complexity of the problem, accurately predicting the targeted coastal flood risks. It is capable of predicting such risks without requiring time-consuming numerical simulations; the ANN only requires the offshore wave characteristics (height, period and direction) and sea-water-level elevation, which can be obtained from open databases. The generic nature of the proposed methodological approach allows its application in numerous coastal regions.

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RISING SEA LEVEL: LEGAL CONSEQUENCES ON THE SHIFTING OF COASTAL STATE BASELINE

Padjadjaran Journal of International Law ◽

10.23920/pjil.v3i2.321 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 142-160

Author(s):

Ratu Gita Narnina W ◽

Arie Afriansyah

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level ◽

Sea Water ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Assessment Report ◽

Coastal State ◽

Change Climate ◽

New Phenomena ◽

The Impact ◽

Rising Sea Level

AbstractBaseline is a line drawn from the coastal configuration features, which is very important because the drawing of a baseline allows a coastal State to claim its own maritime zone as measured from said line. However, this concept of baseline currently faced new phenomena called the sea-level rise caused by the climate change. Climate change is caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere and causing the earth's surface temperature and sea surface temperatures to increase causing the melting of ice and glaciers. Based on survey data Fifth Assessment Report conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it is said that in 2100 the rise of sea water will reach 0.52m to 0.98m. In this regard, the rise of seawater brings a legal implication of the possibility in a shift of the baseline due to the inundation of the coastline used as a place to draw the baseline itself, resulting in the possibility of States losing juridical claims in its maritime zone. Coastal States must now begin to have awareness regarding the impacts caused by rising sea level in order to anticipate and reduce the impact of rising sea level. Keywords: Baseline, Climate Change, Maritime Zone, Rising-Sea Level. AbstrakGaris pangkal merupakan garis yang ditarik dari fitur-fitur konfigurasi pantai yang sangat penting karena penarikan garis pangkal memungkinkan suatu negara untuk mengklaim zona maritim miliknya, diukur dari garis tersebut. Akan tetapi, garis pangkal ini kini menghadapi kendala yaitu fenomena kenaikan air laut yang disebabkan oleh perubahan iklim. Perubahan iklim disebabkan karena menumpuknya gas emisi rumah kaca dan menyebabkan suhu permukaan bumi dan suhu permukaan air laut meningkat sehingga menyebabkan mencairnya es dan gletser di bumi. Dari kejadian tersebut lahirlah fenomena yang dinamakan kenaikan air laut. Berdasarkan data dari survei yang dilakukan oleh Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) dalam Fifth Assessment Report, dikatakan bahwa pada tahun 2100 kenaikan air laut akan mencapai 0,52m hingga 0,98m. Dalam hal ini, kenaikan air laut akan membawa implikasi hukum terkait kemungkinan adanya pergeseran pada garis pangkal dikarenakan tergenangnya wilayah garis pantai yang digunakan sebagai tempat untuk menarik garis pangkal, sehingga besar kemungkinan terjadinya hilangnya klaim yuridis pada zona maritim tertentu. Negara-negara pantai sekarang sudah harus menyadari dampak yang disebabkan oleh kenaikan air laut ini sehingga kemudian dapat mengantisipasi dampak dari kenaikan air laut. Kata Kunci: Garis Pangkal, Kenaikan Air Laut, Perubahan Iklim, Zona Maritim.

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Up-date: Renewable energy and climate change

Renewable Energy and Environmental Sustainability ◽

10.1051/rees/2021004 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 6 ◽

pp. 13

Author(s):

Ali Sayigh

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Renewable Energy ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Fossil Fuels ◽

Sea Water ◽

Low Cost ◽

Extreme Rainfall ◽

Water Levels ◽

Motor Vehicles ◽

Agriculture Industry

The Climate Change crisis is worsening daily. We must start to-day and not to-morrow limiting CO2 emission globally. The Antarctic is melting with alarming speed and causing sea water levels to rise by 24 inches in the Southern Hemisphere. Central Australia is experiencing its worst ever drought and forest fires causing immense damage; on 55 days in 2019 temperatures rose to 48°C while the ground temperature reached 62 °C. Vast tracts of land have been burned with loss of life, homes, produce and wildlife. Yet government reaction was skeptical of the Climate Change connection. At the same time Europe and England have had extreme rainfall and serious extensive flooding. Nowadays many countries have started to take Climate Change extremely seriously and put together plans to reduce or stop the use of coal and other fossil fuels. Most countries have pledged to stop using fossil fuels by 2030. The transport industry accounts for the major part of air pollution through the use of motor vehicles, ships and air transport. In this paper it is demonstrated that motor car usage contributes more than 3500 million metric tons of CO2 each year. UK in November 2020 pledged to combat Climate Change and reduce the emission of CO2 by 50% by 2030. Recently it has announced a ten- point drive to eliminate fossil fuels in transport, agriculture, industry and homes by 2035.Ajman should follow suit and use UK as an example. This paper will summarize the progress of renewable energy globally with examples. Renewable Energy is now a major source of generating electricity worldwide. It is clean, abundant and low cost.

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Analysis of estuarine flood levels based on numerical modelling. The Douro river estuary case study

Revista Eletrônica em Gestão Educação e Tecnologia Ambiental ◽

10.5902/2236117038538 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 23 ◽

pp. 14

Author(s):

Stênio De Sousa Venâncio ◽

José Luís Pinho ◽

José Manuel Vieira ◽

Paulo Avilez-Valente ◽

Isabel Iglesias

Keyword(s):

Numerical Model ◽

Numerical Modelling ◽

Numerical Models ◽

River Estuary ◽

Northern Region ◽

Complete Characterization ◽

Water Levels ◽

Flood Events ◽

Douro River

Estuarine hydrodynamics present intermittent and complex circulation patterns. In this context, from the point of view of the coastal management associated with flood risks in riverine areas, numerical models allow predicting scenarios under specific hypotheses. This work simulates flood events occurring in the Douro river estuary recurring to numerical modelling tools. This estuary, located in the northern region of Portugal, periodically suffered severe flooding, with the associated losses and damages for the local protected landscape areas and hydraulic structures. The occurrence of these events justify the importance of a complete characterization of the areas that present risk of inundation and how they can be affected. A 2D-horizontal numerical model implemented with the Delft3D software was developed for this estuarine region including also the adjacent coastal zone. Available in-situ data were used for model calibration and validation processes. The obtained results are consistent with the in-situ measured water levels, allowing to understand the dynamics of the estuary during flood events. The robustness of the implemented numerical model allows to anticipate flood scenarios effects and associated water levels. The simulations results can then be used for sustainable management of this estuarine zone that presents high social, economic and environmental values.

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City to Flood: A new urban planning model for urban adaptation to climate change induced flooding in Dunedin

10.26686/wgtn.17131934.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

◽

Abby Neill

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Local Community ◽

Coastal Areas ◽

Water Levels ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Adaptive Architecture ◽

Community Environments

Currently 40% of the world’s human population lives within 100km of a coast. With the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicting that sea levels will rise between 0.52 and 0.98m by 2100, and with increasing climate change induced extreme weather events affecting urban settings, the ways in which people reside in coastal areas needs to be addressed. As water levels rise, both permanently through sea level rise, and temporarily through storm surge events, areas of high population in low lying areas will have to reconsider their typical housing and infrastructure design methods, and/or their lifestyles to address this more frequent or potentially permanent influx of water into towns and cities. Current methods of flood adaptive architecture often consider solutions at just the individual house or building scale, despite the clear need to be able to analyse and design with wider changing urban landscape conditions driving decision making. In response, this research investigates possible design strategies for adapting housing to climate change induced flooding, while enhancing the liveability of changing local community environments. This is investigated through a case study design-led research process, and is complimented by a survey of residents. The case study site is a flood prone suburb in the city of Dunedin on the east coast of the South Island in Aotearoa New Zealand. Key findings of the research point to the importance of employing not just a purely technical approach to flooding adaptive housing, but also to using a community-led approach to re-design to understand how people will react to, use, and adapt to repurposed built environments that respond to climate change. This reinforces the need to conceive flood adaptive housing at least at a street and neighbourhood scale, and preferably at a whole suburb landscape scale, rather that just as a single housing typology solution. The research concludes that combining flood adaptive housing with ecosystem-based adaptation solutions to climate change induced flooding could lead to a different, more ecology-integrated way of living for inhabitants of low lying coastal areas. This in turn is likely to have positive social and psychological benefits for inhabitants while increasing community resilience.

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City to Flood: A new urban planning model for urban adaptation to climate change induced flooding in Dunedin

10.26686/wgtn.17131934 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

◽

Abby Neill

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Local Community ◽

Coastal Areas ◽

Water Levels ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Adaptive Architecture ◽

Community Environments

Currently 40% of the world’s human population lives within 100km of a coast. With the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicting that sea levels will rise between 0.52 and 0.98m by 2100, and with increasing climate change induced extreme weather events affecting urban settings, the ways in which people reside in coastal areas needs to be addressed. As water levels rise, both permanently through sea level rise, and temporarily through storm surge events, areas of high population in low lying areas will have to reconsider their typical housing and infrastructure design methods, and/or their lifestyles to address this more frequent or potentially permanent influx of water into towns and cities. Current methods of flood adaptive architecture often consider solutions at just the individual house or building scale, despite the clear need to be able to analyse and design with wider changing urban landscape conditions driving decision making. In response, this research investigates possible design strategies for adapting housing to climate change induced flooding, while enhancing the liveability of changing local community environments. This is investigated through a case study design-led research process, and is complimented by a survey of residents. The case study site is a flood prone suburb in the city of Dunedin on the east coast of the South Island in Aotearoa New Zealand. Key findings of the research point to the importance of employing not just a purely technical approach to flooding adaptive housing, but also to using a community-led approach to re-design to understand how people will react to, use, and adapt to repurposed built environments that respond to climate change. This reinforces the need to conceive flood adaptive housing at least at a street and neighbourhood scale, and preferably at a whole suburb landscape scale, rather that just as a single housing typology solution. The research concludes that combining flood adaptive housing with ecosystem-based adaptation solutions to climate change induced flooding could lead to a different, more ecology-integrated way of living for inhabitants of low lying coastal areas. This in turn is likely to have positive social and psychological benefits for inhabitants while increasing community resilience.

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