scholarly journals Quo Vadis Lakes Azuei and Enriquillo: A Future Outlook for Two of the Caribbean Basin’s Largest Lakes

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Mahrokh Moknatian ◽  
Michael Piasecki
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Anthropogenic Impacts ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Small Community ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Quo Vadis ◽  
Forcing Mechanisms

Lakes Azuei (LA) and Enriquillo (LE) on Hispaniola Island started expanding in 2005 and continued to do so until 2016. After inundating large swaths of arable land, submerging a small community, and threatening to swallow a significant trade route between the Dominican Republic and Haiti; worries persisted at how far this seemingly unstoppable expansion would go. The paper outlines the approach to a look forward to answer this question vis-à-vis climate change scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It uses numerical representations of the two lakes, and it examines how the lakes might evolve, deploying three different forcing mechanisms: that of weather and drift due to climate change, that of extreme events, such as hurricanes, and that of anthropogenic impacts, such as unintended water transfers between adjacent watersheds. Runs are executed Monte Carlo style using 11 different forcing combinations, each with a thousand instances of results generated by varying the numerous parameters that define the numerical models. The results are necessarily not precise and vary significantly as the forecast horizon expands, creating expanding envelopes of outcomes. Although some outcomes suggest a continued rise of the lake levels, most scenarios yield a reduction and recession of the lake waters.

scholarly journals Hydrologic sensitivity of the Upper San Joaquin River Watershed in California to climate change scenarios

2012 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 723-736 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zili He ◽  
Zhi Wang ◽  
C. John Suen ◽  
Xiaoyi Ma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Hydrological Simulation ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
System Sensitivity ◽  
Hspf Model ◽  
San Joaquin River ◽  
San Joaquin River Watershed

To examine the hydrological system sensitivity of the southern Sierra Nevada Mountains of California to climate change scenarios (CCS), five headwater basins in the snow-dominated Upper San Joaquin River Watershed (USJRW) were selected for hydrologic simulations using the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) model. A pre-specified set of CCS as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were adopted as inputs for the hydrologic analysis. These scenarios include temperature increases between 1.5 and 4.5 °C and precipitation variation between 80 and 120% of the baseline conditions. The HSPF model was calibrated and validated with measured historical data. It was then used to simulate the hydrologic responses of the watershed to the projected CCS. Results indicate that the streamflow of USJRW is sensitive to the projected climate change. The total volume of annual streamflow would vary between −41 and +16% compared to the baseline years (1970–1990). Even if the precipitation remains unchanged, the total annual flow would still decrease by 8–23% due to temperature increases. A larger portion of the streamflow would occur earlier in the water year by 15–46 days due to the temperature increases, causing higher seasonal variability of streamflow.

scholarly journals Monitoring canopy and air temperature of dominant vegetation in tropical semi-arid using bioclimatic model

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Josiclêda Domiciano Galvíncio ◽  
Rejane Magalhães de Mendonça Pimentel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Dominant Species ◽  
Canopy Temperature ◽  
Leaf Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Arid Environments ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Dry Land ◽  
Bioclimatic Model

Typical vegetation of arid environments consists of few dominant species highly threatened by climate change. Jurema preta (Mimosa tenuiflora (Willd.) Poiret) is one of these successful species that now is dominant in extensive semiarid areas in the world. The development of a simple bioclimatic model using climate change scenarios based on optimistic and pessimistic predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shown as a simple tool to predict possible responses of dominant species under dry land conditions and low functional biodiversity. The simple bioclimatic model proved satisfactory in creating climate change scenarios and impacts on the canopy temperature of Jurema preta in semiarid Brazil. The bioclimatic model was efficient to obtain spatially relevant estimations of air temperature from determinations of the surface temperature using satellite images. The model determined that the average difference of 5oC between the air temperature and the leaf temperature for Jurema preta, and an increase of 3oC in air temperature, promote an increase of 2oC in leaf temperature. It leads to disturbances in vital physiological mechanisms in the leaf, mainly the photosynthesis and efficient use of water.

scholarly journals Alaskan soil carbon stocks: spatial variability and dependence on environmental factors

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 5695-5718 ◽  
Author(s):  
U. Mishra ◽  
W. J. Riley
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Soil Carbon ◽  
Active Layer ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Soil Wetness ◽  
Soc Stocks

Abstract. The direction and magnitude of soil organic carbon (SOC) changes in response to climate change depend on the spatial and vertical distributions of SOC. We estimated spatially-resolved SOC stocks from surface to C horizon, distinguishing active-layer and permafrost-layer stocks, based on geospatial analysis of 472 soil profiles and spatially referenced environmental variables for Alaska. Total Alaska state-wide SOC stock was estimated to be 77 Pg, with 61% in the active-layer, 27% in permafrost, and 12% in non-permafrost soils. Prediction accuracy was highest for the active-layer as demonstrated by highest ratio of performance to deviation (1.5). Large spatial variability was predicted, with whole-profile, active-layer, and permafrost-layer stocks ranging from 1–296 kg C m−2, 2–166 kg m−2, and 0–232 kg m−2, respectively. Temperature and soil wetness were found to be primary controllers of whole-profile, active-layer, and permafrost-layer SOC stocks. Secondary controllers, in order of importance, were: land cover type, topographic attributes, and bedrock geology. The observed importance of soil wetness rather than precipitation on SOC stocks implies that the poor representation of high-latitude soil wetness in Earth System Models may lead to large uncertainty in predicted SOC stocks under future climate change scenarios. Under strict caveats described in the text and assuming temperature changes from the A1B Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenario, our geospatial model indicates that the equilibrium average 2100 Alaska active-layer depth could deepen by 11 cm, resulting in a thawing of 13 Pg C currently in permafrost. The equilibrium SOC loss associated with this warming would be highest under continuous permafrost (31%), followed by discontinuous (28%), isolated (24.3%), and sporadic (23.6%) permafrost areas. Our high resolution mapping of soil carbon stock reveals the potential vulnerability of high-latitude soil carbon and can be used as a basis for future studies of anthropogenic and climatic perturbations.

scholarly journals Coupled Wave-2D Hydrodynamics Modeling at the Reno River Mouth (Italy) under Climate Change Scenarios

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Gabriella Gaeta ◽  
Davide Bonaldo ◽  
Achilleas G. Samaras ◽  
Sandro Carniel ◽  
Renata Archetti
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Open Source ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Adriatic Sea ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
River Mouth ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Coupled Wave

This work presents the results of the numerical study implemented for the natural area of Lido di Spina, a touristic site along the Italian coast of the North Adriatic Sea, close to the mouth of River Reno. High-resolution simulations of nearshore dynamics are carried out under climate change conditions estimated for the site. The adopted modeling chain is based on the implementation of multiple-nested, open-source numerical models. More specifically, the coupled wave-2D hydrodynamics runs, using the open-source TELEMAC suite, are forced at the offshore boundary by waves resulting from the wave model (SWAN) simulations for the Adriatic Sea, and sea levels computed following a joint probability analysis approach. The system simulates present-day scenarios, as well as conditions reflecting the high IPCC greenhouse concentration trajectory named RCP8.5 under predicted climate changes. Selection of sea storms directed from SE (Sirocco events) and E–NE (Bora events) is performed together with Gumbel analysis, in order to define ordinary and extreme sea conditions. The numerical results are here presented in terms of local parameters such as wave breaking position, alongshore currents intensity and direction and flooded area, aiming to provide insights on how climate changes may impact hydrodynamics at a site scale. Although the wave energy intensity predicted for Sirocco events is expected to increase only slightly, modifications of the wave dynamics, current patterns, and inland flooding induced by climate changes are expected to be significant for extreme conditions, especially during Sirocco winds, with an increase in the maximum alongshore currents and in the inundated area compared to past conditions.

scholarly journals Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 449-463 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Posch ◽  
J. Aherne ◽  
M. Forsius ◽  
S. Fronzek ◽  
N. Veijalainen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Chemical Recovery ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Sulphur Deposition ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Abstract. The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC) was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically) feasible reductions (MFR). Future climate (temperature and precipitation) was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and B2). The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3 (highest predicted change) and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted change). Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and sulphate deposition. Surprisingly, current emission reduction policies hardly show any future recovery; however, significant chemical recovery of soil and surface water from acidification was predicted under the MFR emission scenario. The direct influence of climate change (temperate and precipitation) on recovery was negligible, as runoff hardly changed; greater precipitation is offset by increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. However, two exploratory empirical DOC models indicated that changes in sulphur deposition or temperature could have a confounding influence on the recovery of surface waters from acidification, and that the corresponding increases in DOC concentrations may offset the recovery in pH due to reductions in acidifying depositions.

Estimating the impact of climate change on the occurrence of selected pests at a high spatial resolution: a novel approach

2011 ◽  
Vol 149 (2) ◽  
pp. 185-195 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. KOCMÁNKOVÁ ◽  
M. TRNKA ◽  
J. EITZINGER ◽  
M. DUBROVSKÝ ◽  
P. ŠTĚPÁNEK ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Colorado Potato Beetle ◽  
European Corn Borer ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Pest Species ◽  
Corn Borer ◽  
Potato Beetle ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYThe present study is focused on the potential occurrence of the Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Say 1824), an important potato pest, and the European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis, Hübner 1796), the most important maize pest, during climate change. Estimates of the current potential distribution of both pest species as well as their distribution in the expected climate conditions are based on the CLIMEX model. The study covers central Europe, including Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and parts of Germany, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Switzerland, Ukraine, Slovenia, the northern parts of Serbia, parts of Croatia and northern Italy. The validated model of the pests’ geographical distribution was applied within the domain of the regional climate model (RCM) ALADIN, at a resolution of 10 km. The weather series that was the input for the CLIMEX model was prepared by a weather generator (WG) which was calibrated with the RCM-simulated weather series (for the period of 1961–90). To generate a weather series for two future time periods (2021–50 and 2071–2100), the WG parameters were modified according to 12 climate change scenarios produced by the pattern scaling method. The standardized scenarios derived from three global climate models (HadCM, NCAR-PCM and ECHAM) were scaled by low, middle and high values of global temperature change estimated by the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) model (assuming three combinations of climatic sensitivity and emission scenarios). The results of present study suggest the likely widening of the pests’ habitats and an increase in the number of generations per year. According to the HadCM-high scenario, the area of arable land affected by a third generation per season of Colorado potato beetle in 2050 is c. 45% higher, and by a second generation of the European corn borer is nearly 61% higher, compared to present levels.

scholarly journals Reservoir yield intercomparison of large dams in Jaguaribe Basin-CE in climate change scenarios

RBRH ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Renato de Oliveira Fernandes ◽  
Cleiton da Silva Silveira ◽  
Ticiana Marinho de Carvalho Studart ◽  
Francisco de Assis de Souza Filho
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Great Divergence ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Reservoir Yield

ABSTRACT Climate changes can have different impacts on water resources. Strategies to adapt to climate changes depend on impact studies. In this context, this study aimed to estimate the impact that changes in precipitation, projected by Global Circulation Models (GCMs) in the fifth report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5) may cause on reservoir yield (Q90) of large reservoirs (Castanhão and Banabuiú), located in the Jaguaribe River Basin, Ceará. The rainfall data are from 20 GCMs using two greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The precipitation projections were used as input data for the rainfall-runoff model (SMAP) and, after the reservoirs’ inflow generation, the reservoir yields were simulated in the AcquaNet model, for the time periods of 2040-2069 and 2070-2099. The results were analyzed and presented a great divergence, in sign (increase or decrease) and in the magnitude of change of Q90. However, most Q90 projections indicated reduction in both reservoirs, for the two periods, especially at the end of the 21th century.

scholarly journals NUMERICAL MODELS’ APPLICATION FOR MORPHODYNAMICS ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE MINHO RIVER ESTUARY

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Willian Melo ◽  
José Pinho ◽  
Isabel Iglesias ◽  
Ana Bio ◽  
Paulo Avilez-Valente ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
River Estuary ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Roughness Coefficient ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Erosion Risk ◽  
Minho River

The knowledge of physical, biological, and chemical estuarine processes and how they are affected by climate change conditions is essential for improving estuarine management. A common methodological approach for studying these complex processes is based on the implementation of numerical models supported by field data as bathymetry, sediment characteristics, flow discharges, current velocities, and sea water levels. This work is based on the implementation of a numerical model of the Minho River estuary using the Delft3D software. This model is able to simulate hydrodynamic and morphodynamic processes for different time scales. It was calibrated using the OpenDA tool, which automatically determines some of the models’ parameters, such as the tidal constituents and the roughness coefficient, aiming to minimize the error between observed data and simulated results. Different scenarios were considered to assess the effects of climate change, according to the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Results showed that the elevation in the estuary mouth can reach 77 cm, depending on the considered scenario. It was also determined that floods are the main sediment transport driver along the estuary, intensifying the accretion processes. Furthermore, the sea-level rise reduces the amount of transported sediments to the coastal platform, increasing the erosion risk in this area and increasing the accretion inside the estuary.

scholarly journals Macrofaunal diversity gradients in Antarctic rocky benthic communities: Effects of glaciers and depth

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis Miguel Pardo ◽  
Ignacio Garrido ◽  
Paulina Bruning ◽  
Charlotte Carrier ◽  
Rossana Reveco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Diversity ◽  
Salinity Tolerance ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Anthropogenic Impacts ◽  
Benthic Communities ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rocky Subtidal ◽  
Diversity Gradients

Western Antarctic shows one of the fastest responses to climate change on Earth. Glacier meltdown and freshening are perhaps the most conspicuous evidence of anthropogenic impacts, that together with ice scouring can strongly modify benthic communities. The spatial extension of these impacts has been rarely explored in rocky subtidal environments. This study describes changes in benthic communities across glacier and bathymetric gradient in Fildes Bay, Antarctica. Suction samples were taken from four sites at increasing distance from the Collin glacier (0 - 2.5 – 5 - 7 km) and three depths (5 – 10 - 15 m). Macrofaunal diversity increased with depth across all distances from the glacier; these changes were associated with the increase in diversity of amphipods and echinoderms. The lowest and highest species diversity occurred at zero and two km from the glacier, indicating a strong, but localized, glacier effect. Variation in salinity tolerance and the abundance of key habitat forming algae could explain the spatial variation in these communities. This result remarks the importance of facilitation as a structuring force in Antarctic benthic communities. We suggest that the fate of communities in future climate-change scenarios will depend on how habitat-forming species respond to these environmental changes.

scholarly journals Effects of climate change and land management on soil organic carbon dynamics and carbon leaching in northwestern Europe

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1519-1536 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Stergiadi ◽  
Marcel van der Perk ◽  
Ton C. M. de Nijs ◽  
Marc F. P. Bierkens
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Management ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Century Model ◽  
Precipitation Effect ◽  
Land Use Types

Abstract. Climate change and land management practices are projected to significantly affect soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) leaching from soils. In this modelling study, we adopted the Century model to simulate past (1906–2012), present, and future (2013–2100) SOC and DOC levels for sandy and loamy soils typical of northwestern European conditions under three land use types (forest, grassland, and arable land) and several future scenarios addressing climate change and land management change. To our knowledge, this is the first time that the Century model has been applied to assess the effects of climate change and land management on DOC concentrations and leaching rates, which, in combination with SOC, play a major role in metal transport through soil. The simulated current SOC levels were generally in line with the observed values for the different kinds of soil and land use types. The climate change scenarios result in a decrease in both SOC and DOC for the agricultural systems, whereas for the forest systems, SOC is projected to slightly increase and DOC to decrease. An analysis of the sole effects of changes in temperature and changes in precipitation showed that, for SOC, the temperature effect predominates over the precipitation effect, whereas for DOC the precipitation effect is more prominent. A reduction in the application rates of fertilisers under the land management scenario leads to a decrease in the SOC stocks and the DOC leaching rates for the arable land systems, but it has a negligible effect on SOC and DOC levels for the grassland systems. Our study demonstrated the ability of the Century model to simulate climate change and agricultural management effects on SOC dynamics and DOC leaching, providing a robust tool for the assessment of carbon sequestration and the implications for contaminant transport in soils.

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