Using Seasonal Climate Variability Forecasts to Plan Forest Plantation Establishment

Atmospheric scientists are now able to predict seasonal climate variations, with a relatively high level of skill. Knowledge of climatic conditions allows us to develop a seasonal management strategy for forest plantations and managed natural forests. Areas of application include seedling establishment, preparing for pests and diseases, fire management, harvest schedules and inventory management. This publication provides strategies to consider for pine plantation establishment in Florida and southern Alabama and Georgia. Seasonal climate conditions can be better predicted for this region because it is affected by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. This document is ABE354, one of a series of the Agricultural and Biological Department, Florida Cooperative Extension Service, Institute of Food and Sciences, University of Florida. Published November 2004. https://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/ae282

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Climate vs grapevine pests and diseases worldwide: the first results of a global survey

OENO One ◽

10.20870/oeno-one.2017.51.2.1780 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 51 (2) ◽

pp. 133-139 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

Benjamin Bois ◽

S. Zito ◽

A. Calonnec

Keyword(s):

Severity Index ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Climate Indices ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Global Survey ◽

Pests And Diseases ◽

First Results ◽

The Relationship ◽

Grapevine Disease

Aim: This paper aimed to address the relationship between grapevine disease, pest occurrences and climate. The extremely large extension of viticulture worldwide offers the possibility to evaluate the impacts of climate variability on many aspects of the grape growing system. For this, we initiated a global survey to retrieve the most important diseases and pests in many grape growing regions worldwide and to identify the risk of exposure to pests and diseases of viticulture as a function of climate.Methods and results: Based on the answer of respondent about the main reported diseases/pests in their region, a severity index was calculated. Each region was geolocalised and data were compared to the WorldClim gridded climate database to document the range of climate conditions (growing season temperature and rainfall) associated to the main diseases/pests. The potential climatic-induced changes of grapevine disease and pest geography by 2050 are assessed using agro-climate projections from the ARPEGE CNRM model, using the RCP 4.5 scenario. The preliminary results allow to determine the distribution of diseases as function of agroclimatic indicators.Conclusion: While the distribution of diseases differs according to the region of the world, the current analysis suggests that mildews remain the major phytosanitary threat in most of the regions. Powdery mildew, trunk diseases and viruses were reported in extremely diverse climatic conditions, including intermediate and wet regions. Significance and impact of the study: This paper present an original methodology to address the relationship between grapevine disease and pest occurrences and climate. Such documentation is scarce in the current literature. Further analysis is currently being performed, including additional survey answers, climate indices and supplementary data collected (spatial extension, frequency of treatments…) to better depict the challenges of grapevine phytosanitary management in a changing climate.

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Assessment of current climate conditions changes in the territory of Ciscaucasia for the purposes of forecasting winter wheat yield

South of Russia ecology development ◽

10.18470/1992-1098-2021-1-117-127 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (1) ◽

pp. 117-127

Author(s):

S. N. Volkov ◽

S. V. Savinova ◽

E. V. Cherkashina ◽

D. A Shapovalov ◽

V. V. Bratkov ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Winter Wheat ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Wheat Yield ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Average Value ◽

Current Climate ◽

Close Relationship ◽

Winter Wheat Yield ◽

High Level

Аim. Assessment of current climate changes in the territory of Ciscaucasia in order to predict the yield of winter wheat.Methods .Integral indicators of climatic conditions for agricultural production were employed. For the investigations, we selected five‐year periods for which the meteorological parameters were averaged, and to identify trends the data of specific five‐year periods were compared with the average value for the entireseries of observations (1960‐2020).Results. The deviation of precipitation in April was highest in 2011‐2015, when it increased by 22 mm, and in 1986‐1990 and 1991‐1995, when it decreased by 15 and 10 mm respectively. In Eastern Ciscaucasia,where conditions are more arid than in the Western and Central regions, in both the rise in air temperature and the amount of precipitation, especially in April and May, increased in the 21stcentury for the entire period of active vegetation.Conclusion.It was established that the value of the hydrothermal coefficient practically did not change during the 1960‐2020 period. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, there was an increase in productivity against the background of a relatively high level of annual precipitation and this stability is confirmed at the present time. There is a very close relationship between natural and climatic factors and the level of winter wheat yield.

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The 2018–2019 weak El Niño: Predicting the risk of a dengue outbreak in Machala, Ecuador

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14259 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Desislava Petrova ◽

Xavier Rodó ◽

Rachel Sippy ◽

Joan Ballester ◽

Raul Mejía ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Southern Oscillation ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Transmission Model ◽

Local Climate ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Dengue Outbreak ◽

Dengue Transmission ◽

Forecast Lead Time ◽

Out Of Sample ◽

Dengue Outbreaks

Sea surface temperature conditions in the central-eastern tropical Pacific indicated a mild El Ni&#241;o event in October 2018, which continued throughout the spring of 2019. The global El Ni&#241;o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecast consensus was that these generally weak warm patterns would persist at least until the end of the summer. El Ni&#241;o and its impact on local climatic conditions in southern coastal Ecuador influence the inter-annual transmission of dengue fever in the region. In this study, we use an ENSO model to issue forecasts of El Ni&#241;o for the year 2019, which are then used to predict local climate variables, precipitation and minimum temperature, in the city of Machala, Ecuador. All these forecasts are incorporated in a dengue transmission model, specifically developed and tested for this area, to produce out-of-sample predictions of dengue risk. Predictions are issued at the beginning of January 2019 for the whole year, thus providing the longest forecast lead time of 12 months. Preliminary results indicated that the mild El Ni&#241;o event did not provide the optimum climate conditions for dengue transmission, with the model predicting a very low probability of a dengue outbreak during the typical peak season in Machala in 2019. This is contrary to 2016, when a large El Ni&#241;o event resulted in excess rainfall and warmer temperatures in the region, and a dengue outbreak occurred 3 months earlier than expected. This event was successfully predicted using a similar prediction framework to the one applied here. With the present study, we continue our &#160;efforts to build and test a climate service tool to issue early warnings of dengue outbreaks in the region.

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Landscape diversity and biodiversity of Fann Mountains (Tajikistan)

Ekológia (Bratislava) ◽

10.2478/eko-2013-0037 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 32 (4) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Oimahmad Rahmonov ◽

Leszek Majgier ◽

Wiaczesław Andrejczuk ◽

Jarosław Banaszek ◽

Dominik Karkosz ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Endemic Species ◽

Deciduous Forest ◽

Flood Plain ◽

Geological Structure ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Landscape Diversity ◽

High Mountain ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Shrub Steppe ◽

High Level

AbstractRahmonov O., Majgier L., Andrejczuk W., Banaszek J., Karkosz D., Parusel T., Szymczyk A.: Landscape diversity and biodiversity of Fann Mountains (Tajikistan). Ekologia (Bratislava), Vol. 32, No. 4, p. 388-395, 2013.The aim of study is a presentation of main vegetation landscape diversity and biodiversity in case of endemic species in the Fann Mountains area, in horizontal and vertical approach. In terms of biodiversity, the high-mountain ecosystems of Central Asia include the most valuable areas in the world called as hotspot, and also are exposed to intense human pressure causing the destruction of habitats. Vegetation landscapes of Fann Mountains are very diverse because of high-mountain character of this area, local climatic conditions, topography and habitats. That differentiation leads up to biodiversity and formation of unique plant landscapes and endemic species. The vegetation landscapes in altitude order are represented by forbs meadow steppe, thymes, swamp, broad-leaf forest, juniper forests, flood-plain small-leaved forest, tugai, light deciduous forest, pistachio, forbs wormwood, almond, rare vegetation with cushion-shaped species, wormwood eurotia, steppe, thorny grasses with shrub-steppe, rocks and taluses with rare vegetation alpine zones. High level of endemism in Fann Mountains is connected to natural conditions such as geological structure, relief, high-mountain ranges and climate conditions. This fact has an influence on forming mosaic biotops, often isolated by orographic barriers.

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Climate vs grapevine pests and diseases worldwide: the first results of a global survey

OENO One ◽

10.20870/oeno-one.2016.0.0.1780 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 51 (2) ◽

pp. 133 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Benjamin Bois ◽

S. Zito ◽

A. Calonnec

Keyword(s):

Severity Index ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Climate Indices ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Global Survey ◽

Pests And Diseases ◽

First Results ◽

The Relationship ◽

Grapevine Disease

Aim: This paper aimed to address the relationship between grapevine disease, pest occurrences and climate. The extremely large extension of viticulture worldwide offers the possibility to evaluate the impacts of climate variability on many aspects of the grape growing system. For this, we initiated a global survey to retrieve the most important diseases and pests in many grape growing regions worldwide and to identify the risk of exposure to pests and diseases of viticulture as a function of climate.Methods and results: Based on the answer of respondent about the main reported diseases/pests in their region, a severity index was calculated. Each region was geolocalised and data were compared to the WorldClim gridded climate database to document the range of climate conditions (growing season temperature and rainfall) associated to the main diseases/pests. The potential climatic-induced changes of grapevine disease and pest geography by 2050 are assessed using agro-climate projections from the ARPEGE CNRM model, using the RCP 4.5 scenario. The preliminary results allow to determine the distribution of diseases as function of agroclimatic indicators.Conclusion: While the distribution of diseases differs according to the region of the world, the current analysis suggests that mildews remain the major phytosanitary threat in most of the regions. Powdery mildew, trunk diseases and viruses were reported in extremely diverse climatic conditions, including intermediate and wet regions. Significance and impact of the study: This paper present an original methodology to address the relationship between grapevine disease and pest occurrences and climate. Such documentation is scarce in the current literature. Further analysis is currently being performed, including additional survey answers, climate indices and supplementary data collected (spatial extension, frequency of treatments…) to better depict the challenges of grapevine phytosanitary management in a changing climate.

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Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variability on Livelihood Assets in Marigat and Mogotio Sub-County, Baringo County, Kenya

Asian Journal of Geographical Research ◽

10.9734/ajgr/2018/v1i124670 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 1-14

Author(s):

Ezenwa, Lilian I. ◽

Ibe, Geraldine O. ◽

Ochor N. ◽

Ogbonna Onyekachi A.

Keyword(s):

Climate Variability ◽

Statistical Significance ◽

Sampling Technique ◽

Well Being ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Primary Data ◽

Physical Factors ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Pests And Diseases ◽

Livelihood Assets

This study assessed the various effects of variability in climatic conditions to the means of livelihood and assessed the impacts of climatic conditions like temperature and rainfall on the livelihood assets of the indigenes of Baringo County, which include: livestock, health, agricultural and tree crops, water bodies. A multi-stage sampling technique was applied, using both quantitative and qualitative methods of data collection. Primary data was collected using a well-structured questionnaire while secondary data was obtained from the Meteorological Department Nairobi, Kenya. Data obtained were analysed using frequency distribution, trend analysis, percentage and means, as well as multiple regression analysis. A total of 338 respondents were sampled. Variability in rainfall and temperature significantly affected the livelihood assets of the rural populace. It was observed that 78.7% of the respondents in are informed of climate change, mostly through the media (34.62%). Climate variability to a high extent results in drought (X=3.78), crop pests and diseases (X=3.65), livestock pests and diseases (X=3.70) and cases of human diseases (X=4.01). 94.38% of the rural populace in Baringo County experience food insecurity due to climate variability. Climate variability in temperature and rainfall affected general economic activities of the counties at every level of statistical significance even as high variability in climate conditions affected the rural population in Kenya majorly in the areas of drought 60%, the quantity of meal 31.7% and income 29.6 %. This study, therefore, concluded that climate variables will affect the ecosystems and most likely will alter the economic and physical factors including income, general health and well-being of the rural populace in Baringo County, Kenya.

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Ecological specificities of the interaction between animal breeding and climate changes, caused by greenhouse gas emissions

Agricultural science and practice ◽

10.15407/agrisp4.03.062 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 4 (3) ◽

pp. 62-72

Author(s):

O. Zhukorsky ◽

O. Nykyforuk ◽

N. Boltyk

Keyword(s):

Greenhouse Gases ◽

Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Animal Breeding ◽

Gas Emissions ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Emissions Inventory ◽

Theoretical Substantiation ◽

Global Problems

Aim. Proper development of animal breeding in the conditions of current global problems and the decrease of anthropogenic burden on environment due to greenhouse gas emissions, caused by animal breeding activity, require the study of interaction processes between animal breeding and external climatic conditions. Methods. The theoretical substantiation of the problem was performed based on scientifi c literature, statistical informa- tion of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization and the data of the National greenhouse gas emissions inventory in Ukraine. Theoretically possible emissions of greenhouse gases into atmosphere due to animal breeding in Ukraine and specifi c farms are calculated by the international methods using the statistical infor- mation about animal breeding in Ukraine and the economic-technological information of the activity of the investigated farms. Results. The interaction between the animal breeding production and weather-and-climate conditions of environment was analyzed. Possible vectors of activity for the industry, which promote global warming and negative processes, related to it, were determined. The main factors, affecting the formation of greenhouse gases from the activity of enterprises, aimed at animal breeding production, were characterized. Literature data, statistical data and calculations were used to analyze the role of animal breeding in the green- house gas emissions in global and national framework as well as at the level of specifi c farms with the consid- eration of individual specifi cities of these farms. Conclusions. Current global problems require clear balance between constant development of sustainable animal breeding and the decrease of the carbon footprint due to the activity of animal breeding.

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Relationship between Relative Maturity and Grain Yield of Maize (Zea mays L.) Hybrids in Northwest New Mexico for the 2003–2019 Period

Agriculture ◽

10.3390/agriculture10070290 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (7) ◽

pp. 290

Author(s):

Koffi Djaman ◽

Curtis Owen ◽

Margaret M. West ◽

Samuel Allen ◽

Komlan Koudahe ◽

...

Keyword(s):

New Mexico ◽

Grain Yield ◽

Sprinkler Irrigation ◽

Growing Season ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Agricultural Science ◽

Production Optimization ◽

Science Center ◽

Early Season ◽

Climate Conditions

The highly variable weather under changing climate conditions affects the establishment and the cutoff of crop growing season and exposes crops to failure if producers choose non-adapted relative maturity that matches the characteristics of the crop growing season. This study aimed to determine the relationship between maize hybrid relative maturity and the grain yield and determine the relative maturity range that will sustain maize production in northwest New Mexico (NM). Different relative maturity maize hybrids were grown at the Agricultural Science Center at Farmington ((Latitude 36.69° North, Longitude 108.31° West, elevation 1720 m) from 2003 to 2019 under sprinkler irrigation. A total of 343 hybrids were grouped as early and full season hybrids according to their relative maturity that ranged from 93 to 119 and 64 hybrids with unknown relative maturity. The crops were grown under optimal management condition with no stress of any kind. The results showed non-significant increase in grain yield in early season hybrids and non-significant decrease in grain yield with relative maturity in full season hybrids. The relative maturity range of 100–110 obtained reasonable high grain yields and could be considered under the northwestern New Mexico climatic conditions. However, more research should target the evaluation of different planting date coupled with plant population density to determine the planting window for the early season and full season hybrids for the production optimization and sustainability.

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The effects of ENSO, climate change and human activities on the water level of Lake Toba, Indonesia: a critical literature review

Geoscience Letters ◽

10.1186/s40562-021-00191-x ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Hendri Irwandi ◽

Mohammad Syamsu Rosid ◽

Terry Mart

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Level ◽

Human Activities ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Water Levels ◽

Dominant Factor ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Continuous Increase ◽

The Future

AbstractThis research quantitatively and qualitatively analyzes the factors responsible for the water level variations in Lake Toba, North Sumatra Province, Indonesia. According to several studies carried out from 1993 to 2020, changes in the water level were associated with climate variability, climate change, and human activities. Furthermore, these studies stated that reduced rainfall during the rainy season due to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the continuous increase in the maximum and average temperatures were some of the effects of climate change in the Lake Toba catchment area. Additionally, human interventions such as industrial activities, population growth, and damage to the surrounding environment of the Lake Toba watershed had significant impacts in terms of decreasing the water level. However, these studies were unable to determine the factor that had the most significant effect, although studies on other lakes worldwide have shown these factors are the main causes of fluctuations or decreases in water levels. A simulation study of Lake Toba's water balance showed the possibility of having a water surplus until the mid-twenty-first century. The input discharge was predicted to be greater than the output; therefore, Lake Toba could be optimized without affecting the future water level. However, the climate projections depicted a different situation, with scenarios predicting the possibility of extreme climate anomalies, demonstrating drier climatic conditions in the future. This review concludes that it is necessary to conduct an in-depth, comprehensive, and systematic study to identify the most dominant factor among the three that is causing the decrease in the Lake Toba water level and to describe the future projected water level.

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Effects of Rootstocks on Blade Nutritional Content of Two Minority Grapevine Varieties Cultivated under Hyper-Arid Conditions in Northern Chile

Agronomy ◽

10.3390/agronomy11020327 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (2) ◽

pp. 327

Author(s):

Nicolás Verdugo-Vásquez ◽

Gastón Gutiérrez-Gamboa ◽

Emilio Villalobos-Soublett ◽

Andrés Zurita-Silva

Keyword(s):

Climatic Conditions ◽

Soil Conditions ◽

Northern Chile ◽

High Tolerance ◽

Nutritional Content ◽

Pests And Diseases ◽

Arid Conditions ◽

High K ◽

Warm Weather ◽

Nutritional Imbalance

In the 90s, as in other countries, transformation of Chilean viticulture brought about the introduction and spread of European grapevine varieties which has resulted in a massive loss of minor local and autochthonous grapevine varieties traditionally grown in several wine growing regions. Fortunately, in recent years, autochthonous and minority varieties have been revalued due to their high tolerance to pests and diseases and because of their adaptation to thermal and water stress triggered by global warming. In this study, we assessed the nutritional status of two autochthonous grapevines grafted onto four different rootstocks under the hyper-arid climatic conditions of Northern Chile over three consecutive seasons. The results showed that R32 rootstock induced high N, P, Ca, Mg and Mn levels in blades compared to Harmony rootstock. R32 rootstock and to a lesser extent, 1103 Paulsen and 140 Ruggeri rootstocks kept balanced levels of nutrients in blades collected from Moscatel Amarilla and Moscatel Negra grapevine varieties. Additionally, Harmony presented slight nutritional imbalance compared to the rest of studied rootstocks due to its low absorption of Mg, Mn, Ca and P, and its high K absorption, which was exacerbated under warm weather and salinity soil conditions. These results may provide a basis for specific cultivar/rootstock/site combinations, a nutritional guide for the viticulturists of Northern Chile, and options to diversify their production favoring the use of minority and autochthonous varieties that adapt well to hyper-arid conditions of Northern Chile.

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