scholarly journals VIETNAM AND THE THREAT OF FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE INCOME TRAP

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 68-78
Author(s):  
Khai Van Ngo ◽  
Hai Van Ngo
Keyword(s):  
Return On Investment ◽  
Economic Transition ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Least Developed Countries ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Development Status ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Middle Income Trap

The concept of middle income trap has been introduced in a plenty of research on a nation’s economic development status which refers to the fact that many nations after attaining a certain income will get stuck at that level. Vietnam got rid of the list of least developed countries to join the lower middleincome countries with an annual GDP per capita of 1,052 USD in 2008. Vietnam enjoyed a steady GDP growth of 5.5 – 6% per year in the period between 2008 and 2014. However, the Vietnam’s economy shows signs of slowdown, low productivity, low return on investment, and low economic transition. Vietnam is also warned to be under the threat of falling into the middle income trap. This paper aims to provide a clear picture of the middle income trap and the threat that Vietnam may fall into the middle income trap, thereby proposing some solutions for Vietnam to circumvent it and sustainably develop the economy.

scholarly journals Emisi Karbon dan Produk Domestik Bruto: Investigasi Hipotesis Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) pada Negara Berpendapatan Menengah di Kawasan ASEAN

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 230-246
Author(s):  
Muhamad Ameer Noor ◽  
Putu Mahardika Adi Saputra
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Kuznets Curve ◽  
Carbon Emission ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Per Capita

Policymakers in the world are concerned with carbon emission due to the risk of global warming. Many studies on Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) consider carbon emission as a proxy of environmental degradation. This study aimed to investigate the existence of EKC and identify variations of relationships between carbon emissions and GDP per capita in ASEAN middle-income countries. The study was conducted on Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, and Malaysia based on 1971-2014 time series data using a simultaneous model (2SLS) for each country. The main variables studied were GDP per capita, square of GDP per capita, and carbon emission supported by other variables as the controlling variables. Validation on EKC existence was determined by GDP and GDP squared influence on carbon emission, while variations of relationship between GDP and carbon emission were based on the result of simultaneous regressions. The results showed that the existence of the EKC could not be validated in all countries because energy and transportation policies in each country failed to reduce the emission. On the other hand, carbon emission had a positive unidirectional influence on GDP in all countries. The effect of carbon emission coefficient to GDP showed that Thailand ranked the highest in CO2 efficiency, followed by Indonesia, Philippines, and Malaysia. This study recommended that carbon emission reduction policies in the four countries should focus more to easier access to environmentally friendly technology from developed countries for ensuring trade-offs between the economy and environment.

Tests of a more comprehensive model of economic growth in lower middle-income countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minh Quang Dao
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Comprehensive Model ◽  
Government Consumption ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Per Capita

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically test a more comprehensive model of economic growth using a sample of 28 lower middle-income developing countries. Design/methodology/approach The authors modify the conventional neoclassical growth model to account for the impact of the increase in the number of people working relative to the total population and that of the increase in the value added per worker over time. The authors then extend this model by incorporating the role of trade, government consumption, and human capital in output growth. Findings Regression results show that over three quarters of cross-lower middle-income country variations in per capita GDP growth rate can be explained by per capita growth in the share of public expenditures on education in the GDP, per capita growth in the share of government consumption in the GDP, per capita growth in the share of imports in the GDP, per capita growth in the share of manufactured exports in the GDP (not of that of total exports in the GDP), and the growth of the working population relative to the total population. Practical implications Statistical results of such empirical examination will assist governments in these countries identify policy fundamentals that are essential for economic growth. Originality/value To address the simultaneity bias, the authors develop a simultaneous equations model and are able to show that such model is more robust and helps explains cross-country variations in per capita GDP growth over the 2000-2014 period.

scholarly journals THE ROLE OF AGRICULTURE IN THE NATIONAL ECONOMY OF CHINA AND INDIA – A LONGTERM ANALYSIS

2019 ◽  
Vol XXI (3) ◽  
pp. 432-440
Author(s):  
Kinga Smolińska
Keyword(s):  
Economic Transition ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Significant Group ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
India And China

The purpose of the article is to determine the position of agriculture in the economy of India and China and verify the extent to which the downward trend in agriculture is noticeable in these countries over 25 years (1990-2015). Developing countries represent a significant group among all countries in the world. India and China are especially important in this context for they are the biggest world developing economies which have made huge progress in the field of social and economic transition since the beginning of the 90s. Based on collected material, models of regression were developed, showing dependencies between the dependent variable (GDP per capita) and significant independent variables, including the contribution of agriculture to GDP. It results, from the conducted analyses, that the greatest positive effect on GDP per capita is exerted by an influx and outflow of foreign direct investment and share of services in GDP. With progressing economic growth, a marked downward trend is also evident for the share of agriculture in the generation of GDP. Nevertheless, the rate and scale of this phenomenon varies greatly in the investigated countries. In the case of China, stable per capita GDP growth can be observed with around a 10% share of agriculture in GDP, while, in the case of India, a 20% share. This may mean that such a share of agriculture is already weakening GDP growth to a small extent, which is more dependent on this level than on other factors.

scholarly journals Westerners Underestimate Global Inequality

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ignazio Ziano ◽  
Ivuoma Ngozi Onyeador
Keyword(s):  
Developed Countries ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Car Ownership ◽  
Global Inequality ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Total N ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Military Threat ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Target Country

Most global inequality is between-countries, but inequality perceptions have mostly been investigated within-country. Five studies (total N = 2149, four preregistered) show that Westerners (U.S. American, British, and French participants) believe that developing and middle-income countries’ GDP per capita is much closer to developed countries’ than it actually is, and that people in developing and middle-income countries have higher rates of car ownership, larger houses, and eat out more frequently than they actually do, meaning that Westerners underestimate global inequality. This misperception is underpinned by a convergence illusion: the belief that since the 1990s, poorer countries have closed the economic gap with richer countries to a larger extent than they have. Further, overestimating GDP per capita is negatively correlated with support for aid to the target country and positively correlated with a country’s perceived military threat. We discuss implications for inequality perception and for global economic justice.

The Reproduction Vector of the Russian Economy: 1999-2007

2008 ◽  
pp. 94-109 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Sorokin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Developed Countries

The problem of the Russian economy’s growth rates is considered in the article in the context of Russia’s backwardness regarding GDP per capita in comparison with the developed countries. The author stresses the urgency of modernization of the real sector of the economy and the recovery of the country’s human capital. For reaching these goals short- or mid-term programs are not sufficient. Economic policy needs a long-term (15-20 years) strategy, otherwise Russia will be condemned to economic inertia and multiplying structural disproportions.

scholarly journals Examining GDP Growth and Its Volatility: An Episodic Approach

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (7) ◽  
pp. 890
Author(s):  
Jakub Bartak ◽  
Łukasz Jabłoński ◽  
Agnieszka Jastrzębska
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Per Capita

In this paper, we study economic growth and its volatility from an episodic perspective. We first demonstrate the ability of the genetic algorithm to detect shifts in the volatility and levels of a given time series. Having shown that it works well, we then use it to detect structural breaks that segment the GDP per capita time series into episodes characterized by different means and volatility of growth rates. We further investigate whether a volatile economy is likely to grow more slowly and analyze the determinants of high/low growth with high/low volatility patterns. The main results indicate a negative relationship between volatility and growth. Moreover, the results suggest that international trade simultaneously promotes growth and increases volatility, human capital promotes growth and stability, and financial development reduces volatility and negatively correlates with growth.

scholarly journals Cost per DALY averted in low, middle- and high-income countries: evidence from the global burden of disease study to estimate the cost-effectiveness thresholds

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajabali Daroudi ◽  
Ali Akbari Sari ◽  
Azin Nahvijou ◽  
Ahmad Faramarzi
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Inverse Correlation ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Capita Health Expenditure ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Healthcare Interventions ◽  
Disease Study ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Very High

Abstract Background Determining the cost-effectiveness thresholds for healthcare interventions has been a severe challenge for policymakers, especially in low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to estimate the cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted for countries with different levels of Human Development Index (HDI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Methods The data about DALYs, per capita health expenditure (HE), HDI, and GDP per capita were extracted for 176 countries during the years 2000 to 2016. Then we examined the trends on these variables. Panel regression analysis was performed to explore the correlation between DALY and HE per capita. The results of the regression models were used to calculate the cost per DALY averted for each country. Results Age-standardized rate (ASR) DALY (DALY per 100,000 population) had a nonlinear inverse correlation with HE per capita and a linear inverse correlation with HDI. One percent increase in HE per capita was associated with an average of 0.28, 0.24, 0.18, and 0.27% decrease on the ASR DALY in low HDI, medium HDI, high HDI, and very high HDI countries, respectively. The estimated cost per DALY averted was $998, $6522, $23,782, and $69,499 in low HDI, medium HDI, high HDI, and very high HDI countries. On average, the cost per DALY averted was 0.34 times the GDP per capita in low HDI countries. While in medium HDI, high HDI, and very high HDI countries, it was 0.67, 1.22, and 1.46 times the GDP per capita, respectively. Conclusions This study suggests that the cost-effectiveness thresholds might be less than a GDP per capita in low and medium HDI countries and between one and two GDP per capita in high and very high HDI countries.

scholarly journals An International Analysis of Dialysis Services Reimbursement

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 84-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arjan van der Tol ◽  
Norbert Lameire ◽  
Rachael L. Morton ◽  
Wim Van Biesen ◽  
Raymond Vanholder
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Peritoneal Dialysis ◽  
Replacement Therapy ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Kidney Replacement Therapy ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Low And Middle Income

Background and objectivesThe prevalence of patients with ESKD who receive extracorporeal kidney replacement therapy is rising worldwide. We compared government reimbursement for hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis worldwide, assessed the effect on the government health care budget, and discussed strategies to reduce the cost of kidney replacement therapy.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsCross-sectional global survey of nephrologists in 90 countries to assess reimbursement for dialysis, number of patients receiving hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis, and measures to prevent development or progression of CKD, conducted online July to December of 2016.ResultsOf the 90 survey respondents, governments from 81 countries (90%) provided reimbursement for maintenance dialysis. The prevalence of patients per million population being treated with long-term dialysis in low- and middle-income countries increased linearly with Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDP per capita), but was substantially lower in these countries compared with high-income countries where we did not observe an higher prevalence with higher GDP per capita. The absolute expenditure for dialysis by national governments showed a positive association with GDP per capita, but the percent of total health care budget spent on dialysis showed a negative association. The percentage of patients on peritoneal dialysis was low, even in countries where peritoneal dialysis is better reimbursed than hemodialysis. The so-called peritoneal dialysis–first policy without financial incentive seems to be effective in increasing the utilization of peritoneal dialysis. Few countries actively provide CKD prevention.ConclusionsIn low- and middle-income countries, reimbursement of dialysis is insufficient to treat all patients with ESKD and has a disproportionately high effect on public health expenditure. Current reimbursement policies favor conventional in-center hemodialysis.

scholarly journals Using fuzzy logic for evaluating the level of countries’ (regions’) economic development

2012 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 293-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gordan Stojic
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
The Poor ◽  
The World ◽  
Level Of Economic Development ◽  
Per Capita

There are several divisions of countries and regions in the world. Besides geo-political divisions, there also are economic divisions. The most common economic division is the that on developed countries and the poor ones. These divisions are a consequence of the level of: GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment rate, industrial growth, and so on. The question is how to define a mathematical model based on which the following will be assessed: who is rich and who is poor, or who is economically developed and who is not? How the boundaries of transition from one category to another can be defined? This paper presents a model for evaluating the level of economic development of countries and regions using "fuzzy" logic. The model was tested on a sample of 19 EU member countries and aspirants for membership.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document