scholarly journals Okolišni izotop \(^18 O\) u vodi priobalnih krških izvora kao moguća prediktorska varijabla mikrobiološkog onečišćenja mora

2018 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diana Mance ◽  
Davor Mance
Keyword(s):  
Water Cycle ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Physical Method ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Economic Allocation ◽  
Rainfall Occurrence ◽  
Bathing Waters ◽  
O Isotope ◽  
Faecal Bacteria ◽  
Groundwater Characterization

We tested the validity of the traditional hypothesis of a causal effect between rainfall occurrence, groundwater discharging into the sea, and marine microbial contamination. For groundwater characterization, we used the \(^18 O\) isotope. This stable isotope, together with 2 H, proved to be a useful physical, naturally occurring tracer primarily due to its abundance variations at different stages of water cycle. Test locations include Bakar Bay and selected adjacent Rijeka city beaches (Croatia). To test for statistical associations, we used the Panel Data Pairwise Granger Causality test. At examined locations, we found statistically significant relationships between the amount of rainfall and the abundance of \(^18 O\) isotope in groundwater, as well as relationships between the abundance of \(^18 O\) isotope in groundwater and faecal bacteria concentrations. Accordingly, \(^18 O\) isotope, when used as an indicator for the functioning of karstic groundwater systems, may also be used as the predictor of faecal contamination of bathing waters in associated karst littoral areas. We believe this physical method could be a valuable addition to present methods of predicting microbiological contamination and economic allocation of stock and flow pollutants in scarce common pool resources as fresh water basins, springs and beaches.

scholarly journals The Price Determinants of the EU Allowance in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 4009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chune Chung ◽  
Minkyu Jeong ◽  
Jason Young
Keyword(s):  
Emissions Trading ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Relative Effect ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Coal Price ◽  
Emissions Trading Scheme ◽  
Trading Scheme ◽  
The Eu

The Kyoto Protocol came into effect in 1997 to curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to address the problem of climate change. The Protocol includes a market-based mechanism designed to offset GHG emissions, called the emissions trading scheme (ETS), allowing companies to “trade” their shortage or surplus allowance. This study examines the determinants of the EU allowance (EUA) price in Phase 3 of the EU ETS (2013–2017). First, the causality between the EUA price and other variables is determined using a Granger causality test. Second, the correlation between the EUA price and each variable is measured using a VECM estimation and an impulse response function. Finally, the relative effect of each variable on the EUA price is determined using a forecast error variance decomposition. The results show that the EUA price has a causal effect on the prices of electricity and natural gas. Second, all variables, except the minimum temperature, show a positive relationship with the EUA price. Furthermore, when unexpected shocks occur, the EUA price shows the highest response to its past price, followed by the electricity price. Third, the past EUA price has the most influence on the EUA price, followed by the coal price.

The Impact of US Monetary Growth on Bitcoin Trading Volume in the Current Economic Uncertainty

2020 ◽  
pp. 493-509
Author(s):  
İsmail Canöz
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the effect of US monetary growth on Bitcoin trading volume. To achieve this purpose, firstly, the symmetric causality test is used. Following this test, another symmetric causality test is used to reveal a time-varying causal effect between variables. The data set covers the period from July 2010 to July 2019. The results of the first symmetric causality test, which considers the time interval of the study data as a whole, show that there is no causal relationship between variables. According to the results of the second causality test, these support the previous results substantially. However, an interesting detail is the causal relationship between variables for the period between April 2019 and July 2019. The reason for this relationship could be that investors who are indecisive during the current economic uncertainty add Bitcoin to their portfolios in response to the Federal Reserve's decisions.

scholarly journals ODA and Provincial Economic Growth in Vietnam

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Dang Ngoc Duc ◽  
Do Thi Ngoc Lan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Focal Point ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test

The focal point of this paper is focused on assessing the causal relationship between ODA and economic growth in the localities of Vietnam. This research uses panel data of ODA and GDP from 63 provinces of Vietnam by using Granger Causality test. The results showed that ODA has a causal effect on economic growth (GDP) and vice versa, economic growth decides to attract ODA in provinces in Vietnam. This result complements studies on the causal relationship between ODA and economic growth using new empirical evidence through case studies in the provinces of Vietnam.

scholarly journals Recycling of moisture in Europe: contribution of evaporation to variability in very wet and dry years

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1685-1697 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Bisselink ◽  
A. J. Dolman
Keyword(s):  
Water Cycle ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Important Contributor ◽  
Moisture Recycling ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Precipitation Recycling ◽  
Moisture Storage ◽  
Weak Winds

Abstract. Evaporation is a key parameter in the regional atmospheric water cycle. Precipitation recycling is defined as the contribution of water that evaporates from a region to precipitation within the same region. We apply a dynamic precipitation recycling model, which includes a dynamic moisture storage term, to calculate the warm season variability of the precipitation recycling over central Europe at a daily time scale for 2003 (dry) and 2006 (wet). For the central part of Europe advection is the most important contributor to precipitation. In dry spells in both years 2003 and 2006, when moisture of advective origin diminishes, local evaporation becomes an important contributor to precipitation (negative feedback). In two dry periods (June 2003 and July 2006) where there is enough moisture storage in the soil to continue evaporation, precipitation recycling is enhanced. In case studies we follow the path of an air column for days with high precipitation recycling to discuss the role of moisture recycling in land-atmosphere interactions. For 2 days with enough moisture availability (28 May 2003 and 5 July 2006) moisture particles stay long in the study area due to weak winds. By following the paths we show that the air is transported over land for a very long distance before it precipitates. It thus takes a considerable amount of time to traverse the region and capture moisture of evaporative origin. However, we hypothesize that the precipitation falling on those days still originates (partly) from oceanic sources, but that the triggering of precipitation may itself be a result of enhanced instability induced by soils, which still have sufficient moisture storage. In dry periods with enough moisture available precipitation recycling acts as a mechanism to keep the precipitation at a stable level. In August 2003 evaporation is affecting the precipitation recycling due to the lack of water availability caused by the dryness of the preceding spring and summer season. According to a Granger Causality test the evaporation in 2003 exerts the strongest causal impact on the precipitation recycling ratio. For the case study of 10 August 2003, the atmosphere is too dry to generate precipitation with exception of the mountainous regions due to orographical lifting.

An Analysis of the Soil Moisture Feedback on Convective and Stratiform Precipitation

2008 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 280-291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorenzo Alfieri ◽  
Pierluigi Claps ◽  
Paolo D’Odorico ◽  
Francesco Laio ◽  
Thomas M. Over
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Antecedent Soil Moisture ◽  
Rainfall Occurrence ◽  
Moisture Conditions

Abstract Land–atmosphere interactions in midlatitude continental regions are particularly active during the warm season. It is still unclear whether and under what circumstances these interactions may involve positive or negative feedbacks between soil moisture conditions and rainfall occurrence. Assessing such feedbacks is crucially important to a better understanding of the role of land surface conditions on the regional dynamics of the water cycle. This work investigates the relationship between soil moisture and subsequent precipitation at the daily time scale in a midlatitude continental region. Sounding data from 16 locations across the midwestern United States are used to calculate two indices of atmospheric instability—namely, the convective available potential energy (CAPE) and the convective inhibition (CIN). These indices are used to classify rainfall as convective or stratiform. Correlation analyses and uniformity tests are then carried out separately for these two rainfall categories, to assess the dependence of rainfall occurrence on antecedent soil moisture conditions, using simulated soil moisture values. The analysis suggests that most of the positive correlation observed between soil moisture and subsequent precipitation is due to the autocorrelation of long stratiform events. The authors found both areas with positive and areas with negative feedback on convective precipitation. This behavior is likely due to the contrasting effects of soil moisture conditions on convective phenomena through changes in surface temperature and the supply of water vapor to the overlying air column. No significant correlation is found between daily rainfall intensity and antecedent simulated soil moisture conditions either for convective or stratiform rainfall.

scholarly journals Exploration of the Effect of Oil and Non-Oil Export on Economic Growth in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Uzma Khan ◽  
Aarif Mohammad Khan ◽  
Md. Shabbir Alam
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Growth Unit ◽  
Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
Export Revenue ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The tactical master plan for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia aims to resolve the Kingdom's economy from its reliance on oil revenues by diversifying its economy. Therefore, this research explores the impact of oil and non-oil export revenue on economic growth. Unit root test analysis illustrates that the series becomes stationary when level and first difference is considering and having a one lag length. Johansen co-integration test indicates the presence of both periods among the models. The outcomes indicate a short-run causal effect from both oil and non-oil export to economic growth. Additionally, Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition also indicated that non-oil export revenue could act better than the revenue generated by oil export. However, the granger causality test indicates no causal relationship among any parameters. Policies recommend that by promoting the non-oil export will enhance the economic progress.

scholarly journals ENERGY-GROWTH NEXUS: EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA

2021 ◽  
pp. 8-14
Author(s):  
Umar Muhammad Dabachi ◽  
Suraya Mahmood
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Energy Intensity ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Energy Price ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Bidirectional Relationship ◽  
Bound Test

This study aims to investigate the causality relationships between energy use, energy intensity, energy price and economic growth. Regarding the data analysis, the study covered the period from 1980 until 2020. All relevant preliminary tests were conducted in order to validate the data before the main analysis. We deployed ARDL bound test of cointegration approach for long-run relationship, as well as the granger causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamota (1995). The empirical results showed the presence of long-run relationship among the variables. We also found that energy use and economic growth has a bidirectional relationship. Similarly, we observed a presence of another feedback causal effect between energy intensity and economic growth. Likewise, a bi-directional causal relationship exists between energy price and economic growth in the Nigerian economy. The study makes available policy recommendations in the last part of the paper. KEY WORDS: energy intensity, energy price, economic growth, Toda and Yamamota

scholarly journals Why So Serious about Foreign Capital?

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashish Kumar Sedai
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Sub Saharan

This study examines the cost and benefits of capital inflow in emerging economies and delineates equity and debt to examine the nature and trends of capital inflows in Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS), East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa since their economic reforms. We adopt a two-step process to address endogeneity and to tease out the causal effect of capital flow on economic growth and vice versa. First, we run the panel Granger causality test to examine the precedence of causality between per capita GDP growth, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows, portfolio inflows and the real effective exchange rate. We follow this test with a fixed-effect panel regression model to test for the magnitude of causality between the variables. The study finds the presence of a strong causality between FDI equity flows and a weak and lagged causality between short term capital flows and economic growth. In the short-run, there is bi-directional causality in growth and equity flows. In the longer run, the effects of equity fade away, but the effect of sustained debt kicks in. Among other results, an average currency appreciation for one-year causes equity inflow and causes GDP growth for two years.

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