Comparing deuterium excess to large-scale precipitation recycling models in the tropics

Precipitation recycling is essential to sustaining regional ecosystems and water supplies, and it is impacted by land development and climate change. This is especially true in the tropics, where dense vegetation greatly influences recycling. Unfortunately, large-scale models of recycling often exhibit high uncertainty, complicating efforts to estimate recycling. Here, we examine how deuterium excess (d-excess), a stable-isotope quantity sensitive to recycling effects, acts as an observational proxy for recycling. While past studies have connected variability in d-excess to precipitation origins at local or regional scales, our study leverages >3000 precipitation isotope samples to quantitatively compare d-excess against three contemporary recycling models across the global tropics. Using rank-correlation, we find statistically significant agreement ($$\bar \tau = 0.52$$ τ ¯ = 0.52 to $$0.70$$ 0.70 ) between tropical d-excess and recycling that is strongly mediated by seasonal precipitation, vegetation density, and scale mismatch. Our results detail the complex relationship between d-excess and precipitation recycling, suggesting avenues for further investigation.

Convection-permitting fully coupled WRF-Hydro ensemble simulations in high mountain environment: impact of boundary layer- and lateral flow parameterizations on land–atmosphere interactions

Numerical climate models have been upgraded by the improved description of terrestrial hydrological processes across different scales. The goal of this study is to explore the role of terrestrial hydrological processes on land–atmosphere interactions within the context of modeling uncertainties related to model physics parameterization. The models applied are the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its coupled hydrological modeling system WRF-Hydro, which depicts the lateral terrestrial hydrological processes and further allows their feedback to the atmosphere. We conducted convection-permitting simulations (3 km) over the Heihe River Basin in Northwest China for the period 2008–2010, and particularly focused on its upper reach area of complex high mountains. In order to account for the modeling uncertainties associated with model physics parameterization, an ensemble of simulations is generated by varying the planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes. We embedded the fully three-dimensional atmospheric water tagging method in both WRF and WRF-Hydro for quantifying the strength of land–atmosphere interactions. The impact of PBL parameterization on land–atmosphere interactions is evaluated through its direct effect on vertical mixing. Results suggest that enabled lateral terrestrial flow in WRF-Hydro distinctly increases soil moisture and evapotranspiration near the surface in the high mountains, thereby modifies the atmospheric condition regardless of the applied PBL scheme. The local precipitation recycling ratio in the study area increases from 1.52 to 1.9% due to the description of lateral terrestrial flow, and such positive feedback processes are irrespective of the modeling variability caused by PBL parameterizations. This study highlights the non-negligible contribution of lateral terrestrial flow to local precipitation recycling, indicating the potential of the fully coupled modeling in land–atmosphere interactions research.

Projected changes in precipitation recycling over the Tibetan Plateau based on a global and regional climate model

Precipitation recycling, as represented by the precipitation contributed by locally evaporated water vapor, is a key indicator of regional changes in the water cycle. The Quasi Isentropic Back-Trajectory method, combined with a global climate model [Community Climate System Model (CCSM)] and regional climate model [Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation forced by CCSM (WRF-CCSM)], was used to analyze historical (1982–2005) and future (2090–2099) precipitation recycling over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The study focuses on the differences in the projection of precipitation recycling ratio (PRR) changes and relevant mechanisms between the fine-resolution (30 km) WRF-CCSM and coarse-resolution (~110 km) CCSM simulations. Compared with CCSM, the biases and root-mean-square errors of the historical evapotranspiration and precipitation over the TP were greatly reduced in the WRF-CCSM simulation, particularly in precipitation. Using WRF-CCSM outputs, higher PRRs in all elevation bands, as well as the opposite seasonal pattern and linear trend of PRR for the river basins in the northern TP, were revealed. Unlike the CCSM projections, WRF-CCSM projects increasing trends of PRR changes with elevation under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with the largest increase at an elevation of about 5000 m. WRF-CCSM projects a diverse spatial and seasonal pattern of PRR changes, in contrast to the uniform decrease projected by CCSM. The larger fractional increases of future evapotranspiration contribution (precipitation contributed by local evapotranspiration) per unit warming than precipitation changes in WRF-CCSM suggests an enhanced contribution of locally evaporated moisture to total precipitation in the future under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

The Physical Mechanisms Behind the Change in the Precipitation Recycling Rate in the Mid- and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

The precipitation recycling rate (PRR) is an important index when trying to understand the physical mechanisms behind the effects of different sources of water vapor on regional precipitation. We studied the change in the PRR in the mid- and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR), the correlation between the PRR and the external source of water vapor and local evaporation, and the possible reasons for the interannual variation of the PRR. Our study was based on an evaluation model of the PRR and used precipitation data from meteorological stations in China and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets. Our results show that the mean PRR in the MLRYR for the time period 1961–2017 was largest in autumn (about 0.3) and smallest in summer (about 0.23), with a clear upward trend (passed the 95% significance F-test), except in summer. The highest trend coefficient of the PRR was in autumn (0.38), indicating that the contribution of an external source of water vapor to local precipitation was reduced. The PRR of the MLRYR was strongly correlated with the input of water vapor through the western and southern boundaries. Water vapor was mainly sourced from the Northwest Pacific Ocean, the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The anomalous Northwest Pacific cyclone induced by the Pacific sea surface temperature restrained the input of water vapor into the MLRYR from the Western Pacific, the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal, contributing to the upward trend in the PRR. We suggest that increases in the sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, South China Sea and especially the Indian Ocean will have an important impact on precipitation in East Asia.

Deforestation Impacts on Amazon-Andes Hydroclimatic Connectivity

Amazonian deforestation has accelerated during the last decade, threatening an ecosystem where almost one third of the regional rainfall is transpired by the local rainforest. Due to the precipitation recycling, the southwestern Amazon, including the Amazon-Andes transition region, is particularly sensitive to forest loss. This study evaluates the impacts of Amazonian deforestation in the hydro-climatic connectivity between the Amazon and the eastern tropical Andes during the austral summer (December-January-February) in terms of hydrological and energetic balances. Using 10-year high-resolution simulations (2001–2011) with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, we analyze control and deforestation scenario simulations. Regionally, deforestation leads to a reduction in the surface net radiation, evaporation, moisture convergence and precipitation (~ 20%) over the entire Amazon basin. In addition, during this season, deforestation increases the atmospheric subsidence over the southern Amazon and weakens the regional Hadley cell. Atmospheric stability increases over the western Amazon and the tropical Andes inhibiting convection in these areas. Consequently, major deforestation impacts are observed over the hydro-climate of the Amazon-Andes transition region. At local scale, nighttime precipitation decreases in Bolivian valleys (~ 20–30%) due to a strong reduction in the humidity transport from the Amazon plains toward Andes linked to the South American low-level jet. Over these valleys, a weakening of the daytime upslope winds is caused by local deforestation, which reduces the turbulent fluxes at lowlands. These alterations in rainfall and atmospheric circulation could impact the rich Andean ecosystems and its tropical glaciers.

A data–model approach to interpreting speleothem oxygen isotope records from monsoon regions

Reconstruction of past changes in monsoon climate from speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) records is complex because δ18O signals can be influenced by multiple factors including changes in precipitation, precipitation recycling over land, temperature at the moisture source, and changes in the moisture source region and transport pathway. Here, we analyse >150 speleothem records of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and AnaLysis (SISAL) database to produce composite regional trends in δ18O in monsoon regions; compositing minimises the influence of site-specific karst and cave processes that can influence individual site records. We compare speleothem δ18O observations with isotope-enabled climate model simulations to investigate the specific climatic factors causing these regional trends. We focus on differences in δ18O signals between the mid-Holocene, the peak of the Last Interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 5e) and the Last Glacial Maximum as well as on δ18O evolution through the Holocene. Differences in speleothem δ18O between the mid-Holocene and the Last Interglacial in the East Asian and Indian monsoons are small, despite the larger summer insolation values during the Last Interglacial. Last Glacial Maximum δ18O values are significantly less negative than interglacial values. Comparison with simulated glacial–interglacial δ18O shows that changes are principally driven by global shifts in temperature and regional precipitation. Holocene speleothem δ18O records show distinct and coherent regional trends. Trends are similar to summer insolation in India, China and southwestern South America, but they are different in the Indonesian–Australian region. Redundancy analysis shows that 37 % of Holocene variability can be accounted for by latitude and longitude, supporting the differentiation of records into individual monsoon regions. Regression analysis of simulated precipitation δ18O and climate variables show significant relationships between global Holocene monsoon δ18O trends and changes in precipitation, atmospheric circulation and (to a lesser extent) source area temperature, whereas precipitation recycling is non-significant. However, there are differences in regional-scale mechanisms: there are clear relationships between changes in precipitation and δ18O for India, southwestern South America and the Indonesian–Australian regions but not for the East Asian monsoon. Changes in atmospheric circulation contribute to δ18O trends in the East Asian, Indian and Indonesian–Australian monsoons, and a weak source area temperature effect is observed over southern and central America and Asia. Precipitation recycling is influential in southwestern South America and southern Africa. Overall, our analyses show that it is possible to differentiate the impacts of specific climatic mechanisms influencing precipitation δ18O and use this analysis to interpret changes in speleothem δ18O.

How is the atmospheric residence time of evapotranspired water altered with a dried-up lake or a forest restoration scenario and what is the impact on precipiation?

<p>Land surface characteristics and processes may have complex interactions with the physical and dynamical processes of the atmosphere. However, adequate methods for systemically understanding individual processes of the nonlinearly coupled land-atmosphere continuum are still rare. Therefore, in this study, the age-weighted evaporation tagging approach of Wei et al. (2016) and the three-dimensional online atmospheric water budget analysis of Arnault et al. (2016) were implemented into the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. In addition to the total and tagged atmospheric water states of matter, the latter approach was further extended for age-weighted tagged atmospheric water states of matter, thereby providing a prognostic equation of the residence time of state variables in the atmospheric water cycle.<strong> </strong>This extension allows to systematically quantify the fate of evaporated and transpired water in terms of magnitude, location, composition, and residence time. The extended WRF model was tested for a land use and land cover change study for the Poyang Lake basin, the largest freshwater lake in China. Two hypothetical scenarios, i.e., a dried-up lake and a forest restoration scenario, were simulated and then compared to a real-case control simulation using the original land-use data. The results of the basin-scale precipitation recycling in the context of evapotranspiration partitioning and the modified atmospheric water cycle due to both scenarios will be presented and discussed. We conclude that our newly developed modelling framework and the proposed analysis strategy have the potential to be applied for better understanding and quantifying the nonlinearly intertwined processes between the land and the atmosphere.</p><p>References:</p><p>Arnault, J., Knoche, R., Wei, J., & Kunstmann, H. (2016). Evaporation tagging and atmospheric water budget analysis with WRF: A regional precipitation recycling study for West Africa. Water Resources Research, 52(3), 1544–1567. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017704</p><p>Wei, J., Knoche, R., & Kunstmann, H. (2016). Atmospheric residence times from transpiration and evaporation to precipitation: An age-weighted regional evaporation tagging approach. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(12), 6841–6862. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024650</p>

Contribution of the Sahel region to precipitation over the African continent

<p>Redistribution of evapotranspiration from land via atmospheric circulation is an important Earth system process. Globally, evapotranspiration contributes significantly to terrestrial rainfall, on both regional and more remote scales. In wet, tropical regions (e.g. the Congo basin), transpiration and interception loss from the dense forest cover are the primary drivers of moisture recycling, which plays a crucial role in preserving regional ecosystem functioning. However, for semi-arid and arid regions, our knowledge on the extent and significance of evapotranspiration for moisture recycling is still very limited, despite the significance this may have for addressing challenges of desertification in times of rapid environmental change. Considering this, we are taking the Sahel region as a case study and investigate its contribution to precipitation in the African continent. In addition, we specifically study what fraction of the precipitation originates from vegetation in the Sahel through transpiration and interception loss. Our study is based on simulated atmospheric moisture trajectories derived from the Lagrangian model FLEXPART with a 1-degree resolution, driven by ECMWF reanalysis data over 1980–2016. Preliminary results show (1) the temporal variability in the contribution of the region to precipitation in African drylands, and (2) a significant contribution of local precipitation recycling. We conclude that consideration of the naturally and anthropogenically-driven greening of the Sahel, as well as land use and land cover changes in the region, may have both local and far-reaching impacts via the transport of moisture through the atmosphere.</p>

INTER-SEASONAL AND INTER-BASINS HYDROLOGICAL COUPLING IN SOUTH AMERICA

The inter-seasonal and inter-basins hydrological couplings between the Amazon and the La Plata basins are obtained with the help of ERA-5 atmospheric reanalysis, MERGE/CPTEC precipitation, GLEAM evapotranspiration and the GLDAS/Noah soil moisture datasets. The hypotheses formulated by Zanin and Satyamurty (2020a) about the hydrological processes interconnecting the Amazon Basin and the La Plata Basin are tested. A new method for finding the source-sink relationships among the boxes (regions) is presented. The precipitation recycling, frequency of source-sink behaviors, the soil moisture memory and the continental moisture transport between remote regions are evaluated. The main result of this study is that the amount of water precipitated over the Southeastern region of the Amazon Basin at the end of the South American Monsoon during autumn season, influences the amount of precipitation during winter season over the Central-western region of the La Plata Basin.

Australian Precipitation Recycling and Evaporative Source Regions

The relative importance of atmospheric advection and local land–atmosphere coupling to Australian precipitation is uncertain. Identifying the evaporative source regions and level of precipitation recycling can help quantify the importance of local and remote marine and terrestrial moisture to precipitation within the different hydroclimates across Australia. Using a three-dimensional Lagrangian back-trajectory approach, moisture from precipitation events across Australia during 1979–2013 was tracked to determine the source of moisture (the evaporative origin) and level of precipitation recycling. We show that source regions vary markedly for precipitation falling in different regions. Advected marine moisture was relatively more important than terrestrial contributions for precipitation in all regions and seasons. For Australia as a whole, contributions from precipitation recycling varied from ~11% in winter up to ~21% in summer. The strongest land–atmosphere coupling was in the northwest and southeast where recycled local land evapotranspiration accounted for an average of 9% of warm-season precipitation. Marine contributions to precipitation in the northwest of Australia increased in spring and, coupled with positive evaporation trends in the key source regions, suggest that the observed precipitation increase is the result of intensified evaporation in the Maritime Continent and Indian and Pacific Oceans. Less clear were the processes behind an observed shift in moisture contribution from winter to summer in southeastern Australia. Establishing the climatological source regions and the magnitude of moisture recycling enables future investigation of anomalous precipitation during extreme periods and provides further insight into the processes driving Australia’s variable precipitation.