scholarly journals (In)Justice of Environmental Protection

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-19
Author(s):  
Josip Berdica ◽  
Toni Pranić
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Social Order ◽  
Carbon Balance ◽  
Third World ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Social Institutions ◽  
Environmental Issues ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Vulnerable Groups ◽  
Human Environment

Environmental issues are among the most critical scientific and social problems of today. The human environment is an environment of inequality and crisis, and a platform for debate on the fairness of social order. The crisis is the result of human behaviour, which reflects the failure of development and unjust distribution of consequences. The gap between rich and poor on a global scale is evident in the disproportionate climate change impacts on countries and their ability to cope. In this respect, the economic and political inequalities between First and Third World countries are fortified by ecological ones. The development of international environmental mechanisms such as the Kyoto Agreement is instrumental in this kind of change. The pursuit of tackling and controlling climate change has its unforeseen consequences, whereas in specific communities the existent inequalities are emphasised in new forms. If mechanisms developed for the environment, such as the market of carbon emissions and the carbon balance, lead to environmental injustice and disproportionately affects vulnerable groups, it raises the question of their purpose. On the path of Rawl’s idea on the fairness of social institutions, such system demonstrates itself as contradictory and unjust.

scholarly journals Elaborating a systems methodology for cascading climate change impacts and implications

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
NA Cradock-Henry ◽  
J Connolly ◽  
P Blackett ◽  
Judith Lawrence
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Conceptual Development ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Visual Aids ◽  
Systems Methodology ◽  
Human Environment ◽  
New Research

New research is drawing attention to the potential for climate change to generate cascading impacts and implications across linked human-environment systems, requiring closer accounting of these interactions to anticipate the emergence of surprises and feedbacks. However, there is little practical guidance for those interested in characterising, identifying or assessing cascades, and few empirical examples. In this paper, we elaborate a systems-based methodology to identify and evaluate cascading climate change impacts and implications. We illustrate its application using the case of a participatory process with urban infrastructure managers, facing the legacy effects of damaging earthquakes and the prospect of future climate change. The results show the proposed approach and visualisation of cascades as causal diagrams provides a robust and flexible analytical framework. The use of systems thinking, visual aids, interactive discussion and expert elicitation generated valuable information about potential cascades, their interactions across domains of interest, and the implications for management. The process can provide a basis for further empirical application and advance methodological and conceptual development. Specifically, the systems methodology: • Identifies interdependencies and interconnections which may serve as transmission pathways for climate-related impacts; • Enhanced stakeholders’ understanding of multiple causes and effects of climate change; and • Produced a useful visual aid for stakeholders to explore cascading impacts and implications, and opportunities for intervention.

scholarly journals Global Potato Yields Increase Under Climate Change With Adaptation and CO2 Fertilisation

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stewart A. Jennings ◽  
Ann-Kristin Koehler ◽  
Kathryn J. Nicklin ◽  
Chetan Deva ◽  
Steven M. Sait ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
National Scale ◽  
Modeling Studies ◽  
Potato Yields

The contribution of potatoes to the global food supply is increasing—consumption more than doubled in developing countries between 1960 and 2005. Understanding climate change impacts on global potato yields is therefore important for future food security. Analyses of climate change impacts on potato compared to other major crops are rare, especially at the global scale. Of two global gridded potato modeling studies published at the time of this analysis, one simulated the impacts of temperature increases on potential potato yields; the other did not simulate the impacts of farmer adaptation to climate change, which may offset negative climate change impacts on yield. These studies may therefore overestimate negative climate change impacts on yields as they do not simultaneously include CO2 fertilisation and adaptation to climate change. Here we simulate the abiotic impacts of climate change on potato to 2050 using the GLAM crop model and the ISI-MIP ensemble of global climate models. Simulations include adaptations to climate change through varying planting windows and varieties and CO2 fertilisation, unlike previous global potato modeling studies. Results show significant skill in reproducing observed national scale yields in Europe. Elsewhere, correlations are generally positive but low, primarily due to poor relationships between national scale observed yields and climate. Future climate simulations including adaptation to climate change through changing planting windows and crop varieties show that yields are expected to increase in most cases as a result of longer growing seasons and CO2 fertilisation. Average global yield increases range from 9 to 20% when including adaptation. The global average yield benefits of adaptation to climate change range from 10 to 17% across climate models. Potato agriculture is associated with lower green house gas emissions relative to other major crops and therefore can be seen as a climate smart option given projected yield increases with adaptation.

scholarly journals Stormwater Management in a Time of Climate Change: Insights from a Series of Scenario-Building Dialogues

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seth P. Tuler ◽  
Thomas Webler ◽  
Jason L. Rhoades
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Stormwater Management ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Contextual Knowledge ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Human Environment ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Trade Offs

Abstract Numerous decision support tools have been developed to assist stormwater managers to understand future scenarios and devise management strategies. This paper presents one such tool, the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS) process, and reports on experiences from its deployment in 10 coastal communities on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. VCAPS helps to elucidate local complexities, couplings, and contextual nuance through dialogue among technical experts and those with detailed contextual knowledge of a community. Participants in the process develop qualitative scenarios of climate change impacts and how different management strategies may prevent or mitigate undesirable consequences. The scenarios help stormwater managers diagnose potential problems that may emerge from climate change and variability, which can then be subject to further detailed analysis. The authors describe five challenges faced by stormwater managers and how insights that emerge from scenario-based processes like VCAPS can help address them: characterizing the implications of interacting climate stressors that originate stormwater, bringing all available expertise and local knowledge to bear on the problem of stormwater management, integrating local and scientific information about coupled human–environment systems, identifying management actions and their trade-offs, and facilitating planning for sustained coordination among multiple public and private entities.

scholarly journals Adapting global shared socio-economic pathways for national and local scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
B Frame ◽  
Judith Lawrence ◽  
AG Ausseil ◽  
A Reisinger ◽  
A Daigneault
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Local Context ◽  
Response Options ◽  
Integrative Research ◽  
Climate Change Risks ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adaptation And Mitigation

© 2018 The Authors Socio-economic scenarios enable us to understand the extent to which global-, national- and local-scale societal developments can influence the nature and severity of climate change risks and response options. Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) enable a systematic exploration of the challenges to adaptation and mitigation that alternative futures entail. However, SSPs are primarily defined for the global scale. If countries are to test their adaptation and mitigation options for robustness across plausible future socio-economic conditions, then SSPs require country-relevant detail to understand climate change risks at the national and local scales. New Zealand is used to illustrate how nationally relevant socio-economic scenarios, nested within SSPs can be developed to inform national- and local-scale studies of climate change impacts and their implications. Shared policy assumptions were developed, involving a mix of climate-specific and non-climate-specific policies, to demonstrate how international links and global-scale developments are critical locally—local choices may accelerate, reduce or even negate the impact of global trends for extended periods. The typology was then ‘tested’ by applying it in a local context. The research challenges observed in developing credible, salient and legitimate national-scale socio-economic scenarios include issues in developing scenarios across a multidisciplinary team. Finally, recommendations for adapting shared climate policy assumptions to produce national and local scenarios, and for assessing the feasibility and effectiveness of climate change adaptation options are presented. These include the need for: guidelines to embed national scenarios in global frameworks; a limit the number of plausible futures; inter-operability of models; an ability to work towards effective multi-disciplinary teams and integrative research; and the opportunity to involve participatory processes where feasible.

scholarly journals Climate impacts on human livelihoods: where uncertainty matters in projections of water availability

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 403-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. K. Lissner ◽  
D. E. Reusser ◽  
J. Schewe ◽  
T. Lakes ◽  
J. P. Kropp
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Impact Model ◽  
First Results

Abstract. Climate change will have adverse impacts on many different sectors of society, with manifold consequences for human livelihoods and well-being. However, a systematic method to quantify human well-being and livelihoods across sectors is so far unavailable, making it difficult to determine the extent of such impacts. Climate impact analyses are often limited to individual sectors (e.g. food or water) and employ sector-specific target-measures, while systematic linkages to general livelihood conditions remain unexplored. Further, recent multi-model assessments have shown that uncertainties in projections of climate impacts deriving from climate and impact models as well as greenhouse gas scenarios are substantial, posing an additional challenge in linking climate impacts with livelihood conditions. This article first presents a methodology to consistently measure Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development (AHEAD). Based on a transdisciplinary sample of influential concepts addressing human well-being, the approach measures the adequacy of conditions of 16 elements. We implement the method at global scale, using results from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to show how changes in water availability affect the fulfilment of AHEAD at national resolution. In addition, AHEAD allows identifying and differentiating uncertainty of climate and impact model projections. We show how the approach can help to put the substantial inter-model spread into the context of country-specific livelihood conditions by differentiating where the uncertainty about water scarcity is relevant with regard to livelihood conditions – and where it is not. The results indicate that in many countries today, livelihood conditions are compromised by water scarcity. However, more often, AHEAD fulfilment is limited through other elements. Moreover, the analysis shows that for 44 out of 111 countries, the water-specific uncertainty ranges are outside relevant thresholds for AHEAD, and therefore do not contribute to the overall uncertainty about climate change impacts on livelihoods. The AHEAD method presented here, together with first results, forms an important step towards making scientific results more applicable for policy-decisions.

scholarly journals Escaping the perfect storm of simultaneous climate change impacts on agriculture and marine fisheries

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (11) ◽  
pp. eaaw9976 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lauric Thiault ◽  
Camilo Mora ◽  
Joshua E. Cinner ◽  
William W. L. Cheung ◽  
Nicholas A. J. Graham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Marine Fisheries ◽  
Least Developed Countries ◽  
Business As Usual ◽  
Productivity Gains

Climate change can alter conditions that sustain food production and availability, with cascading consequences for food security and global economies. Here, we evaluate the vulnerability of societies to the simultaneous impacts of climate change on agriculture and marine fisheries at a global scale. Under a “business-as-usual” emission scenario, ~90% of the world’s population—most of whom live in the most sensitive and least developed countries—are projected to be exposed to losses of food production in both sectors, while less than 3% would live in regions experiencing simultaneous productivity gains by 2100. Under a strong mitigation scenario comparable to achieving the Paris Agreement, most countries—including the most vulnerable and many of the largest CO2 producers—would experience concomitant net gains in agriculture and fisheries production. Reducing societies’ vulnerability to future climate impacts requires prompt mitigation actions led by major CO2 emitters coupled with strategic adaptation within and across sectors.

scholarly journals Climate impacts on human livelihoods: where uncertainty matters in projections of water availability

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 355-373 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. K. Lissner ◽  
D. E. Reusser ◽  
J. Schewe ◽  
T. Lakes ◽  
J. P. Kropp
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Impact Model ◽  
First Results

Abstract. Climate change will have adverse impacts on many different sectors of society, with manifold consequences for human livelihoods and well-being. However, a systematic method to quantify human well-being and livelihoods across sectors is so far unavailable, making it difficult to determine the extent of such impacts. Climate impact analyses are often limited to individual sectors (e.g. food or water) and employ sector-specific target measures, while systematic linkages to general livelihood conditions remain unexplored. Further, recent multi-model assessments have shown that uncertainties in projections of climate impacts deriving from climate and impact models, as well as greenhouse gas scenarios, are substantial, posing an additional challenge in linking climate impacts with livelihood conditions. This article first presents a methodology to consistently measure what is referred to here as AHEAD (Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development). Based on a trans-disciplinary sample of concepts addressing human well-being and livelihoods, the approach measures the adequacy of conditions of 16 elements. We implement the method at global scale, using results from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to show how changes in water availability affect the fulfilment of AHEAD at national resolution. In addition, AHEAD allows for the uncertainty of climate and impact model projections to be identified and differentiated. We show how the approach can help to put the substantial inter-model spread into the context of country-specific livelihood conditions by differentiating where the uncertainty about water scarcity is relevant with regard to livelihood conditions – and where it is not. The results indicate that livelihood conditions are compromised by water scarcity in 34 countries. However, more often, AHEAD fulfilment is limited through other elements. The analysis shows that the water-specific uncertainty ranges of the model output are outside relevant thresholds for AHEAD for 65 out of 111 countries, and therefore do not contribute to the overall uncertainty about climate change impacts on livelihoods. In 46 of the countries in the analysis, water-specific uncertainty is relevant to AHEAD. The AHEAD method presented here, together with first results, forms an important step towards making scientific results more applicable for policy decisions.

Climate change impacts on the water, energy, and food nexus: a global quantitative assessment

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joreen Merks ◽  
Seleshi Yalew ◽  
Fulco Ludwig
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hot Spots ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Impact Model ◽  
Model Data ◽  
The Future

<p>Understanding the global interactions between water, energy and food production under climate change is crucial to identify arising synergies and conflicts between these sectors. Existing literature mainly focuses on the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus at a case study level as well as at policy and decision making level. Global quantitative assessments of the WEF nexus are still limited. Quantifying the nexus is challenging because it requires a framework which includes knowledge from three different fields. This becomes even more complex if we want to incorporate future climate projections and look at a global scale.</p><p>Two approaches can be followed to quantify the WEF nexus. One is to use an integrated assessment model, a model that includes modules for water, energy and food. Another approach is to use separate cutting edge models from each field and bring these different model outputs together. The Inter Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) gives us the opportunity to apply this second approach. In ISIMIP, many model groups provide impact model data for a variety of sectors with the same climate forcing and climate scenarios on a global scale. This means we can not only use data from the water, energy and food sectors, but we can also use multiple models per sector. This approach allows us to use unique insights from the sectoral inter-comparison studies and see their implications for the WEF nexus.  </p><p>This study aims to identify WEF nexus ‘hot spots’ and how they might change in the future. Here we want to focus on locations where WEF conflicts might arise as well as spots with high development potential. We do this by, first, looking at global spatially distributed demand and supply model data per sector finding areas of surplus and deficit. Second, we combine them into several maps displaying integrated WEF nexus hot spots and their progression into the future. This study is meant to create a better global understanding of the interactions between water, energy and food sectors and how they will develop over time. The resulting maps identify regions of conflict or synergy, and can be used not only as a basis for future studies assessing resource conflicts but also as an indicator of where to harness arising opportunities.</p>

scholarly journals Uncertainty in climate change impacts on basin-scale freshwater resources – preface to the special issue: the QUEST-GSI methodology and synthesis of results

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 1035-1046 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. C. Todd ◽  
R. G. Taylor ◽  
T. J. Osborn ◽  
D. G. Kingston ◽  
N. W. Arnell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Basin Scale

Abstract. This paper presents a preface to this Special Issue on the results of the QUEST-GSI (Global Scale Impacts) project on climate change impacts on catchment scale water resources. A detailed description of the unified methodology, subsequently used in all studies in this issue, is provided. The project method involved running simulations of catchment-scale hydrology using a unified set of past and future climate scenarios, to enable a consistent analysis of the climate impacts around the globe. These scenarios include "policy-relevant" prescribed warming scenarios. This is followed by a synthesis of the key findings. Overall, the studies indicate that in most basins the models project substantial changes to river flow, beyond that observed in the historical record, but that in many cases there is considerable uncertainty in the magnitude and sign of the projected changes. The implications of this for adaptation activities are discussed.

scholarly journals A systematic approach to assess human wellbeing demonstrated for impacts of climate change

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tabea K. Lissner ◽  
Dominik E. Reusser ◽  
Tobia Lakes ◽  
Jürgen P. Kropp
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Systematic Approach ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Influence Matrix ◽  
Impact Pathways

AbstractClimate change impacts will affect many important societal sectors, with potential negative consequences for human well-being and livelihoods, however an integrated and systematic measure to assess the state of livelihood conditions in this context is not available. At the same time, human livelihoods and wellbeing are an important part of (social) sustainability. Yet, aspects of human needs and well-being within assessments of sustainability are criticised for being arbitrary and incomplete. This paper presents a systematic approach to assess Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development (AHEAD) on a regional to global scale. Based on an interdisciplinary literature review, we first select a consistent set of elements that allow to describe and quantify well-being and livelihoods. In a second step, we analyze documented associations between the elements to outline climate impact pathways and indirect effects of changes in single system components, using an influence matrix. The novel approach provides an important first step to point towards climate change adaptation measures, which most effectively increase human well-being, while identifying potential unintended side-effects. Even though there are some limitations to assessing well-being and livelihoods on a global scale, a consistent measure of AHEAD is of utmost importance for future sustainability and climate impact analyses.

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