scholarly journals «THE BULLWHIP EFFECT» IN THE LOGISTIC ACTIVITY OF THE ENTERPRISE

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olha Maiboroda ◽  
Irina Patlakh ◽  
Oleg Maiboroda
Keyword(s):  
Bullwhip Effect ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Maximum Efficiency ◽  
Production Plan ◽  
Business Logistics ◽  
Managerial Decisions ◽  
Logistic Chain ◽  
Simulated Game ◽  
Negative Factors ◽  
Beer Game

This article is devoted to the development of international logistical activities, examination and prevention negative factors on any links of logistic chain. The important requirements to obtain maximum efficiency at all components of the logistic chain with minimal costs in each of its items, compliance with market interests and goals of each participant of logistic chain are considered. The simulated model has proved that the farther on logistic chain the information flow passes from consumer the more distorted information about the necessary stocks of products and real stocks in warehouse, and as a result – the extraordinary accumulation of mistakes in the forms of surplus of goods at all stages of its movement from producer to consumer. The similar phenomenon in logistics is called the effect of "The Bullwhip Effect". The method of practical analysis of the "bullwhip" effect was used in order to investigate resistance to this effect on the situation were simulated in «BEER GAME». The simulation method “BEER GAME” is the result of the work of the consulting system MA system, which works in the field of business logistics around the world. Four parts of the logistics chain took part in the simulation: a retailer, a distributor, a wholesaler and a manufacturer. They make a logistics chain 52 weeks long. The overall results of the game are presented in detail: the total cost of the simulated game, and manufacturer's game statistics, the statistics of game such as costs, orders and information of warehouse stock in terms of retailer, distributor and wholesaler. Furthermore, the article highlights other destabilizing effects that are closely related to the "bullwhip" effect, such as: the Forrester effect - a phenomenon in the sales channel, which predicts the inefficiency of the logistics chain; the Burbage effect - when the size of supplies can change in the direction of increase without managerial decisions; the Halligan effect - when there is a deviation from the existing supply and production plan; promotion effect - implicit price changes. On the basis of the conducted modeling and consideration of the reasons of occurrence of effect methods of stabilization of a logistic chain are offered.

Want to reduce the bullwhip? Measure it. Here’s how

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 297-304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming Jin ◽  
Nicole DeHoratius ◽  
Glen Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
Small Perturbation ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Bullwhip Effect ◽  
End Users ◽  
Social Implications ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Beer Game ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The popular “beer game” illustrates the bullwhip effect where a small perturbation in downstream demand can create wild swings in upstream product flows. The purpose of this paper is to present a methodical framework to measure the bullwhip effect and evaluate its impact. Design/methodology/approach This paper illustrates a framework using SKU-level data from an industry-leading manufacturer, its distributors, end-users and suppliers. Findings Firms benefit from tracking multiple intra-firm bullwhips and from tracking bullwhips pertinent to specific products, specific suppliers and specific customers. The framework presented in this paper enables managers to pinpoint bullwhip sources and mitigate bullwhip effects. Research limitations/implications This paper presents a framework for methodically measuring and tracking intra-firm and inter-firm bullwhips. Practical implications A disconnect exists between what is known and taught regarding the bullwhip effect and how it is actually tracked and managed in practice. This paper aims to reduce this gap. For the various products analyzed herein, the authors show how using this framework has the potential to reduce delivered product cost by 2 to 15 per cent. Social implications Properly managing the bullwhip leads to lower inventories and potentially lower product prices while simultaneously increasing firm profits. Originality/value This paper presents a novel approach to systematically tracking intra-firm bullwhips along with bullwhips specific to a given supplier or customer.

scholarly journals Features of Modeling the Probability of Bankruptcy Using Discriminant Models with Application in Economic Forensics

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (517) ◽  
pp. 88-93
Author(s):  
I. V. Hubanova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Economic ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Foreign Firms ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Crisis Situation ◽  
Managerial Decisions ◽  
Discriminant Models ◽  
Probability Of Bankruptcy ◽  
Negative Factors ◽  
Adequate Management

The article is aimed at studying the methodologies of forecasting bankruptcy, their application in forensic economic expertise, which will allow to make managerial decisions substantiated from the point of view of financial security of an enterprise and create opportunities for stable functioning and development of the enterprise. All enterprises are affected by negative factors and may find themselves in a crisis situation. That is why the management of enterprise should apply all existing measures to prevent bankruptcy and overcome crisis situations. Any crisis situation can be corrected if you respond to crises in time and form a balanced and adequate management system. Therefore, the use of bankruptcy forecasting methodologies will allow the management of enterprise to identify in advance negative trends in its development. The article analyzed the existing discriminant models for determining the probability of bankruptcy with their application in forensic economic expertise. In modern practice of the financial-economic activities of foreign firms, to assess the probability of bankruptcy, the discriminant models of Altman, Beaver, Taffler, Tishaw and some others received the widest application. It is defined that for a more justified forecast, it is advisable to use several methods at the same time to predict the probability of insolvency (bankruptcy) of enterprise. It is proposed to use a set of models to determine the probability of bankruptcy of enterprise in solving issues of economic forensic expertise, which will significantly increase the degree of probability of the results obtained. The proposed measures can be used not only to diagnose the likelihood of bankruptcy, but also to develop anti-crisis measures.

scholarly journals ANALYZING METHODS OF ASSESSING SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY OF SPORTS CENTERS IN RUSSIAN UNIVERSITIES

2019 ◽  
pp. 140-151
Author(s):  
Petr A. Solovev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Efficiency ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
General Satisfaction ◽  
Managerial Decisions ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Survey Results ◽  
Negative Factors ◽  
Russian Universities ◽  
Satisfaction With Services

The article studies factors affecting seriously the profitability of sports centers. The author designed a system of indicators, which can help assess their social and economic efficiency. It is shown that achievement of high figures of social and economic efficiency of sports infrastructure functioning is possible only by using effective managerial tools. Effectiveness can be estimated by comparison of the obtained effect of a certain type of activity with raised resources. Specificity of the proposed system of indicators is its potential to estimate the efficiency of the current sports centers’ work and at the same time to find negative factors influencing their functioning. Indicators proposed by the author can be used in complex appraisal of centers’ work. The information collected with their help can help identify drawbacks in their operation and, consequently take adequate managerial decisions. In order to analyze satisfaction with services of the sp[orts center it is proposed to use a questionnaire. On the basis of the survey results a formula of assessing the general satisfaction of clients was put forward. The recommended indicators can be used in the complex appraisal of the sports center work.

scholarly journals SMART-SPECIALIZATION DEVELOPMENT OF FARMS

THE BULLETIN ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (391) ◽  
pp. 45-52
Author(s):  
A. Hutorov ◽  
O. Gutorov ◽  
O. Krasnorutskyy ◽  
S. Groshev ◽  
O. Yermolenko
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Economies Of Scale ◽  
Economic Problem ◽  
Maximum Efficiency ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Endogenous Factors ◽  
Managerial Decisions ◽  
First Case ◽  
Smart Specialization ◽  
Production Capacities

Looking for ways to increasing efficiency of farms is an important national economic problem. At the same time, priorities should be given to endogenous factors of economic development. Moreover, the experience of the most successful farmers has shown that smart-specialization as a concept of sustainable, innovative and niche agricultural production has a high potential for improving management efficiency now. The aim of the research is to form the scientific bases for farms smart-specialization development. The conceptual fundamentals of development the smart-specialization of Ukrainian farms are outlined, which are based on the principles of innovativeness and competence of farmers, entrepreneurial search, rational production specialization, economic, environmental and social efficiency of land use, intensification of inter-farm interaction. It has been substantiated that transition to the smart-specialization makes it possible to reorient farms to a model of innovatively-oriented strategic specialized diversification of agricultural production, intensive, integrated growth in niche segments of the agrarian market under the conditions of the optimal realization of their land and resource potential, limited effect of economies of scale in farms and competitive pressure. It has been shown, that the system of managerial decisions in the conditions of smart-specialization of farms should be based on the balance of ensuring maximum efficiency or sensitivity of production to changes in market conditions. In the first case, a production should be more flexible, but less specialized. In the second case, a specialization will be narrow with the maximum full utilization of production capacities of the economy. Focusing on the product it is necessary to determine the optimal volume of production, based on market demand, taking into account seasonality. Two-way communication with production shows the interdependence of these factors on the level and chosen direction of the smartspecialization of a farm, causing a wide or narrow range of production, as well as the dynamics of the level of finished goods inventories. In order to increasing efficiency of farms in the transition to the smartspecialization model, the creation of the national information center (hub) for farming development on the basis of the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences of Ukraine have been promised.

Digitalization Analysis of Engineering Projects Using the Oil and Gas Sector as an Example

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (12) ◽  
pp. 688-696
Author(s):  
M. R. Usmanov ◽  
◽  
D. A. Fomenkov ◽  
M. A. Shushkin ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Business Processes ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Maximum Efficiency ◽  
Engineering Project ◽  
Optimal Decisions ◽  
Managerial Decisions ◽  
Modern Business ◽  
Analytical Tools ◽  
Engineering Projects ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector

he article outlines critical analysis of methods used in assessment of digitalization in companies and projects. Based on the results the authors infer the necessity of development of methods that might be used in analysis of engineering centers digitalization. The article presents new method that allows to estimate the level of intensity and effectiveness of different practices in digitalization. The method was tested in analysis of digitalization of engineering projects in oil industry. Digitalization is one of the main processes of changing modern business. Most companies actively declare the introduction of new digitalization tools in management. At the same time, these processes do not always lead to an increase in management efficiency. To make optimal decisions on the use of business digitalization tools, the development of appropriate analytical tools is required. The presented methodology includes: a set of metrics for the efficiency and activity of digitalization of an engineering project: grouping of metrics into three blocks; a method for evaluating the analyzed metrics, an algorithm for analyzing the digitalization of projects and making managerial decisions for their optimization. The technique presented in the article allows us to identify problem areas of digitalization in the business processes of the engineering center, as well as to determine in which directions the maximum efficiency was achieved. This methodology is aimed at making managerial decisions regarding the use of various tools for digitalizing business processes in the implementation of engineering projects.

Minimizing the bullwhip effect in a supply chain: a simulation approach using the beer game

SIMULATION ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 96 (9) ◽  
pp. 737-752
Author(s):  
Abdullah A Alabdulkarim
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Inventory Management ◽  
Simulation Modeling ◽  
Reference Model ◽  
Bullwhip Effect ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
Management Policies ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Beer Game

In this research, the aim is to find the most appropriate inventory management logic and set of rules along with the optimal decision values that will minimize the bullwhip effect in a supply chain, taking the beer game supply chain as a reference model. In order to achieve this, a simulation model of the beer game supply chain is developed along with an ordering strategy based on the Economic Order Quantity with additional rules, such as no backorder policy, vendor-managed inventory, and taking into consideration route deliveries, all of which are implemented in the ordering algorithm. In the literature, there is extensive research conducted on the causes of the bullwhip effect and in the presence of certain inventory management policies. However, these terms are rarely combined with simulation modeling to provide satisfactory proven results. In this article, our proposed ordering algorithm avoids the bullwhip effect to a very large extent. The results show that approximately half the cost is incurred compared to recent studies with the same settings.

scholarly journals The Analysis of Orders of Perishable Goods in Relation to the Bullwhip Effect in the Logistic Supply Chain of the Food Industry: a Case Study

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Chocholáč ◽  
Petr Průša
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Food Industry ◽  
Bullwhip Effect ◽  
Quantity Discounts ◽  
Food Supply Chains ◽  
Perishable Goods ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Logistic Chain ◽  
Order Variability

Abstract The bullwhip effect generally refers to the phenomenon where order variability increases as the orders move upstream in the supply chain. It is serious problem for every member of the supply chain. This effect begins at customers and passes through the chain to producers, which are at the end of the logistic chain. Especially food supply chains are affected by this issue. These chains are unique for problems of expiration of goods (particularly perishable goods), variable demand, orders with quantity discounts and effort to maximize the customer satisfaction. This paper will present the problem of the bullwhip effect in the real supply chain in the food industry. This supply chain consists of approximately 350 stores, four central warehouses and more than 1000 suppliers, but the case study will examine 87 stores, one central warehouse and one supplier in 2015. The aim of this paper is the analysis of the order variability between the various links in this chain and confirmation of the bullwhip effect in this chain. The subject of the analysis will be perishable goods.

Bullwhip effect and inventory oscillations analysis using the beer game model

2009 ◽  
Vol 48 (13) ◽  
pp. 3943-3956 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Coppini ◽  
Chiara Rossignoli ◽  
Tommaso Rossi ◽  
Fernanda Strozzi
Keyword(s):  
Bullwhip Effect ◽  
Game Model ◽  
Beer Game
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