Selective statistical estimates of multi-year monthly concentrations of biogenous pollution of small rivers of the Northwest zone of the Russian Federation

Author(s):  
Sergey Kovalenko

The management of surface watercourses is an urgent scientific task. The article presents the results of statistical processing of long-term monthly data of field observations of hydrological and hydrochemical parameters along the Upper Yerga small river in the Vologda region. Sampling estimates of statistical parameters are obtained, autocorrelation and correlation analyzes are performed. The limiting periods from the point of view of pollution for water receivers receiving wastewater from drained agricultural areas are identified.

Author(s):  
E.S. Lartseva ◽  
◽  
A.D. Kuznetsova

Based on official statistics on the number, of representatives of the family of non-ruminant cloven-hoofed animals (Artiodactyl) on the territory of the Russian Federation. Using the example of two species: domestic pigs and wild boars, the dynamics of the indicator for the long term is analyzed. Multidirectional trends were revealed for each species. Mathematical models of the dynamics of the livestock were obtained using the methods of regression analysis and applied software. Statistical estimates of the quality of animal population models were obtained. The short-term forecast for 2020 has been fulfilled.


2021 ◽  
pp. 108-117
Author(s):  
I.V. Feldblium ◽  
◽  
V.G. Akimkin ◽  
A.V. Alimov ◽  
M.V. Piterskiy ◽  
...  

At present it is impossible to develop epidemiologic surveillance and control over any infection regarding studies on dynamics of morbidity, seasonality and periodicity without using mathematical modeling techniques. Our research goal was to study regularities in manifestations of epidemic process for enterovirus (non-polio) infection (EVnI) in the Russian Federation over 14 years (2006–2019) using mathematical models (linear, logarithmic, power, and exponential approximation).An optimal mathematical model was selected using three statistical parameters, namely determination coefficient, Fischer’s exact test, and standard error. Periodicity of rises and falls in morbidity was calculated with Fourier one- dimensional spectral analysis. Intra-year dynamics of morbidity with EVnI was estimated basing on monthly spread of the disease cases on the RF territory. Classic seasonal decomposition, Census I technique, was applied to analyze time series of monthly morbidity. It was determined that EVnI epidemic process was unevenly spread over years in the RF in the examined period of time (2006–2019) and there were two opposite trends in it; the first one lasted from 2006 to 2010 when morbidity was declining and the second was from 2010 to 2019 when it was growing. Having analyzed manifestations of EVnI epidemi- ologic process in long-term dynamics given its uneven spread as per years, we established that it was advisable to use mathematical models approximated as per separate time periods. Average long-term morbidity with EVnI amounted to 8.09 0/0000 in the RF in 2010–2019 with growth rate being equal to 17.7 %. Maximum value was registered in 2017 (16.32 0/0000). An unfavorable prediction for further epidemic situation development was revealed for the examined pe- riod. The epidemic process was characterized with 4-year periodicity and summer-autumn seasonality with peaks usually occurring in August and September. Rates that characterized intensity of the trends in long-term morbidity dynamics and were calculated with mathematical models differed authentically from those obtained via conventional calculations of average values (χ=11.08; d.f.=1; p=0.0009).


2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 166-175
Author(s):  
Valeriia A. Ovcharuk ◽  
Mariia E. Daus ◽  
Natalia S. Kichuk ◽  
Mariia I. Myroshnychenko ◽  
Yurii V. Daus

The analysis of current scientific work on the use of statistical methods in hydrochemical research has shown that this approach is sufficiently substantial, both in Ukraine and abroad. The purpose of this work is to determine the main statistical parameters and to research the possibility of applying theoretical laws of distribution to the time series of water mineralization.This research presents the results of the application of standard statistical methods of hydrometeorological information processing for data on water mineralization at 28 gauges of the Dnipro basin (within Ukraine) for the period from 1990 to 2015. The dynamics of the obtained statistical parameters (long-term annual average, coefficients of variation, asymmetry and autocorrelation) within the Dnipro basin in Ukraine has been analyzed. The average annual values of mineralization vary substantially within the studied part of the Dnipro basin - in the northern part the maximum value of the annual average mineralization is 447 mg/l, as it moves to the south, the mineralization increases and in the sub-basin of the Middle Dnipro it reaches a maximum of 971 mg/l; the highest values are observed in the south (sub-basin of the Lower Dnipro), where they can reach extremely high values for particular small rivers (the Solon River - Novopavlivka village, 3356 mg / l). The long-term variability of mineralization in the rivers of the studied area is insignificant, and the autocorrelation coefficients of the mineralization series are quite high, in most cases they are significant and tend to decrease from the sub-basin of the Prypyat’ river in the north to the sub-basin of the Lower Dnipro river in the south. Within the framework of the presented research, the possibility of using theoretical distribution curves known in hydrology to describe the series of river mineralization, using the example of the Dnipro basin, has also been analyzed. Using Pearson’s fitting criterion, the Pearson type III distributions and the three-parameter distributions by S.M.Krytsky and M.F.Menkel have been verified on their correspondence with the empirical series of mineralization. As a result, it was found that in 85% of cases the Pearson type III distribution can be used, and the three-parameter by S.M.Krytsky and M.F.Menkel can be used in 60% of cases.


2021 ◽  
pp. 108-117
Author(s):  
I.V. Feldblium ◽  
◽  
V.G. Akimkin ◽  
A.V. Alimov ◽  
M.V. Piterskiy ◽  
...  

At present it is impossible to develop epidemiologic surveillance and control over any infection regarding studies on dynamics of morbidity, seasonality and periodicity without using mathematical modeling techniques. Our research goal was to study regularities in manifestations of epidemic process for enterovirus (non-polio) infection (EVnI) in the Russian Federation over 14 years (2006–2019) using mathematical models (linear, logarithmic, power, and exponential approximation).An optimal mathematical model was selected using three statistical parameters, namely determination coefficient, Fischer’s exact test, and standard error. Periodicity of rises and falls in morbidity was calculated with Fourier one- dimensional spectral analysis. Intra-year dynamics of morbidity with EVnI was estimated basing on monthly spread of the disease cases on the RF territory. Classic seasonal decomposition, Census I technique, was applied to analyze time series of monthly morbidity. It was determined that EVnI epidemic process was unevenly spread over years in the RF in the examined period of time (2006–2019) and there were two opposite trends in it; the first one lasted from 2006 to 2010 when morbidity was declining and the second was from 2010 to 2019 when it was growing. Having analyzed manifestations of EVnI epidemi- ologic process in long-term dynamics given its uneven spread as per years, we established that it was advisable to use mathematical models approximated as per separate time periods. Average long-term morbidity with EVnI amounted to 8.09 0/0000 in the RF in 2010–2019 with growth rate being equal to 17.7 %. Maximum value was registered in 2017 (16.32 0/0000). An unfavorable prediction for further epidemic situation development was revealed for the examined pe- riod. The epidemic process was characterized with 4-year periodicity and summer-autumn seasonality with peaks usually occurring in August and September. Rates that characterized intensity of the trends in long-term morbidity dynamics and were calculated with mathematical models differed authentically from those obtained via conventional calculations of average values (χ=11.08; d.f.=1; p=0.0009).


2021 ◽  
Vol 108 ◽  
pp. 04013
Author(s):  
Svetlana Valentinovna Medvedeva ◽  
Aleksey Mikhailovich Popov ◽  
Olga Petrovna Kopylova ◽  
Elena Vasilyevna Burtseva ◽  
Andrey Vladimirovich Seleznev

The course for the transformation of criminal proceedings held in Russia already bears certain fruit and this is stipulated by the democratic transformations taking place in the country. The prerequisite of the research of a reasonable term of criminal proceedings was the fact that the urgency of the criminal trial is of interest not only for scientists and law-makers but also for the accused, defendants, and victims, whose rights are breached in long-term criminal proceedings. The state shall guarantee the compensation of harm for the delay of terms of criminal proceedings not only to the accused and suspected but also to the victims. For this, it is necessary to use certain criteria that explain what terms should be considered reasonable. When writing the article, the authors used the methods of analysis, synthesis, logical and system approaches. As the study of the problem was performed by the authors from the point of view of the two aspects of its understanding – from the scientific point of view and administration of law, eventually the chosen methods allowed reaching the set objective of the research – to reveal the peculiarities of a reasonable term of criminal proceedings and also to develop suggestions for the improvement of legislation in the field under consideration. The authors believe that the preliminary investigation and the trial should determine the acceptable or objective term of criminal proceedings to deliver a fast, legal, and relevant judgment upholding by this the rights of all participants in the process. Basing upon the issue declared, the authors analyze the concept of a reasonable term in criminal proceedings, how it is implemented in practice, and propose to legislate the concept of the reasonable term in Article 5 of the Russian Federation Code of Criminal Procedure.


2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 56-62
Author(s):  
Yana Pysanko ◽  
Svitlana Madzhd

Rivers are important components of many urban systems, and research into urban rivers are considerable research. The object of the research is technogenically transformed aquatic ecosystem of small rivers passing through urban areas of Kyiv city. These small rivers are tributaries of the Irpin River. The study used an ecosystem-basin approach, statistical processing of data. The complex research on patterns of their development for the long-term period were made, the quality class of water and indexes characteristic were ostended.


Author(s):  
Nikolay W. GONTAR

Analysis of economic modernization processes includes a study of the role of MNCs' ties at the local level as a resource and mechanism of modernization/ The MNC and local business integration mechanisms and results in various economy sectors in the Russian Black Sea region (Rostov Region and Krasnodar Region) are analyzed in the article. The forms and tools for including MNC in the processes of restructuring the economy of the Russian Federation regions from the point of view of forming ties at the local level and of management mechanisms providing this result are analyzed for the first time in the Russian research practice.


2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 122
Author(s):  
Widya Prana Rini

Abstrak             Penelitian ini membahas karya sastra yang membawa isu alam dan lingkungan tereksploitasi melalui sistem pertanian sebagai sarana merawat bumi. Perusakan lingkungan pertanian Desa Kailasa merupakan pokok permasalahan tokoh Yahya dalam penyelamatan alam dan lingkungan. Adanya gerak komunal petani yang bersifat antroposentris membuka kontestasi untuk mengakses sumber daya alam. Alam dimanfaatkan untuk mendapatkan keuntungan besar, baik pihak petani maupun pihak lain yang berkepentingan, akan tetapi tidak ada keseimbangan area pertanian jangka panjang. Melalui sudut pandang ekokritik mencermati narasi penyelamatan ekosistem dalam kontestasi kepentingan ekologis. Penelitian ini menggunakan teori ekokritik yang bertolak pada pandangan Cheryll Goltfelty. Metode yang digunakan deskriptif kualitatif. Antroposentris membuat alam dan lingkungan Kailasa terdegradasi terlihat dari manusia yang mengekploitasi alam. Teridentifikasi masyarakat Kailasa mengalami pergeseran kesadaran eko ke kesadaran ego, perubahan tersebut dilatarbelakangi oleh hidup yang berorientasi pada materi untuk kepentingan ekonomi. Ada kecenderungan yang mengarah ke kesadaran eko, terlihat pada generasi baru setelah lima belas tahun terjadi kontestasi, akan tetapi hanya berubah pada tanaman polikultur (tanaman carika). Narasi yang diuraikan terlihat mewakili pemikiran ekosentrisme yang melindungi dari kejahatan antroposentris, akan tetapi terdapat paradoks dalam memperjuangkan ekosistem yang direpresentasikan. Teridentifikasi dari masyarakat Kailasa yang tetap menggunakan cara pandang antroposentris walaupun alam dan lingkungan telah mengalami degradasi. Kata Kunci : ekologi,  ekosistem, antroposentris, ekosentris, ekstensifikas, intensifikasi, kontestasi.     Abstract This research discusses a literature that brings the issue about nature and environmental issues exploited by a farming system as means of caring for the earth. Environment represented in the novel entitled Kailasa by Jusuf AN as a form of ecology criticism and how the narrative of ecosystem rescuse in the contestation of ecological. The purpose of this research is to identify environmental damage and what attitude that should be taken as an act of saving nature and the environment in contestation of acosystem diversity. The destruction of the agricultural environment of Kailasa Village is the main issue of Yahya's character in saving nature and the environment. The anthropocentric nature of farmers' communal movements opens contestation to access natural resources. Nature is used to gain big profits, both farmers and other interested parties, but there is no balance of long-term agricultural areas. Through an ecocritical point of view, look at the narrative of saving ecosystems in the contestation of ecological interests. This research uses an ecocritism in literature that depart from the view of Cheryll Goltfelty. The method used is descriptive kualitative to dissect the problem. Anthropocentric make Kailasa nature and environment degraded which can be seen from humans who exploit nature. It is identified that there is a shift of eco to ego consiousness in Kailasa communitty while the change is motivated by material-oriented life for the sake of the economy. After nature is degraded, there is a tendency to back eco consiousness. Seen in the new generation after fifteen years of contestation, but changed on polyculture plants (carica). Narrative described appears to represent the ecocentric thinking that protects evil anthropocentris, but there is a paradox in the struggle for represented ecosystems. It is identefied from Kailasa community that they keep the antrhoposentric perspective though nature and the environment has been degraded.Keywords: ecocritic, ecosistem, antrophocentric, ecocentric, extensification, intencification, contestation.


2020 ◽  
pp. 51-74
Author(s):  
I. A. Bashmakov

The article presents the key results of scenario projections that underpinned the Strategy for long-term low carbon economic development of the Russian Federation to 2050, including analysis of potential Russia’s GHG emission mitigation commitments to 2050 and assessment of relevant costs, benefits, and implications for Russia’s GDP. Low carbon transformation of the Russian economy is presented as a potential driver for economic growth that offers trillions-of-dollars-worth market niches for low carbon products by mid-21st century. Transition to low carbon economic growth is irreversible. Lagging behind in this technological race entails a security risk and technological backwardness hazards.


The results of experimental studies of masonry on the action of dynamic and static (short-term and long-term) loads are presented. The possibility of plastic deformations in the masonry is analyzed for different types of force effects. The falsity of the proposed approach to the estimation of the coefficient of plasticity of masonry, taking into account the ratio of elastic and total deformations of the masonry is noted. The study of the works of Soviet scientists revealed that the masonry under the action of seismic loads refers to brittle materials in the complete absence of plastic properties in it in the process of instantaneous application of forces. For the cases of uniaxial and plane stress states of the masonry, data on the coefficient of plasticity obtained from the experiment are presented. On the basis of experimental studies the influence of the strength of the so-called base materials (brick, mortar) on the bearing capacity of the masonry, regardless of the nature of the application of forces and the type of its stress state, is noted. The analysis of works of prof. S. V. Polyakov makes it possible to draw a conclusion that at the long application of the load, characteristic for the masonry are not plastic deformations, but creep deformations. It is shown that the proposals of some authors on the need to reduce the level of adhesion of the mortar to the brick for the masonry erected in earthquake-prone regions in order to improve its plastic properties are erroneous both from the structural point of view and from the point of view of ensuring the seismic resistance of structures. It is noted that the proposal to assess the plasticity of the masonry of ceramic brick walls and large-format ceramic stone with a voidness of more than 20% is incorrect, and does not meet the work of the masonry of hollow material. On the basis of the analysis of a large number of research works it is concluded about the fragile work of masonry.


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