scholarly journals NEW APPROACHES TO ASSESSING AND FORECASTING MORBIDITY WITH ENTEROVIRUS (NON-POLIO) INFECTION IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION USING MATHEMATICAL MODELS

2021 ◽  
pp. 108-117
Author(s):  
I.V. Feldblium ◽  
◽  
V.G. Akimkin ◽  
A.V. Alimov ◽  
M.V. Piterskiy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Statistical Parameters ◽  
Exact Test ◽  
Epidemic Process ◽  
Epidemiologic Surveillance ◽  
Research Goal ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
And Control

At present it is impossible to develop epidemiologic surveillance and control over any infection regarding studies on dynamics of morbidity, seasonality and periodicity without using mathematical modeling techniques. Our research goal was to study regularities in manifestations of epidemic process for enterovirus (non-polio) infection (EVnI) in the Russian Federation over 14 years (2006–2019) using mathematical models (linear, logarithmic, power, and exponential approximation).An optimal mathematical model was selected using three statistical parameters, namely determination coefficient, Fischer’s exact test, and standard error. Periodicity of rises and falls in morbidity was calculated with Fourier one- dimensional spectral analysis. Intra-year dynamics of morbidity with EVnI was estimated basing on monthly spread of the disease cases on the RF territory. Classic seasonal decomposition, Census I technique, was applied to analyze time series of monthly morbidity. It was determined that EVnI epidemic process was unevenly spread over years in the RF in the examined period of time (2006–2019) and there were two opposite trends in it; the first one lasted from 2006 to 2010 when morbidity was declining and the second was from 2010 to 2019 when it was growing. Having analyzed manifestations of EVnI epidemi- ologic process in long-term dynamics given its uneven spread as per years, we established that it was advisable to use mathematical models approximated as per separate time periods. Average long-term morbidity with EVnI amounted to 8.09 0/0000 in the RF in 2010–2019 with growth rate being equal to 17.7 %. Maximum value was registered in 2017 (16.32 0/0000). An unfavorable prediction for further epidemic situation development was revealed for the examined pe- riod. The epidemic process was characterized with 4-year periodicity and summer-autumn seasonality with peaks usually occurring in August and September. Rates that characterized intensity of the trends in long-term morbidity dynamics and were calculated with mathematical models differed authentically from those obtained via conventional calculations of average values (χ=11.08; d.f.=1; p=0.0009).

scholarly journals NEW APPROACHES TO ASSESSING AND FORECASTING MORBIDITY WITH ENTEROVIRUS (NON-POLIO) INFECTION IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION USING MATHEMATICAL MODELS

2021 ◽  
pp. 108-117
Author(s):  
I.V. Feldblium ◽  
◽  
V.G. Akimkin ◽  
A.V. Alimov ◽  
M.V. Piterskiy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Statistical Parameters ◽  
Exact Test ◽  
Epidemic Process ◽  
Epidemiologic Surveillance ◽  
Research Goal ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
And Control

At present it is impossible to develop epidemiologic surveillance and control over any infection regarding studies on dynamics of morbidity, seasonality and periodicity without using mathematical modeling techniques. Our research goal was to study regularities in manifestations of epidemic process for enterovirus (non-polio) infection (EVnI) in the Russian Federation over 14 years (2006–2019) using mathematical models (linear, logarithmic, power, and exponential approximation).An optimal mathematical model was selected using three statistical parameters, namely determination coefficient, Fischer’s exact test, and standard error. Periodicity of rises and falls in morbidity was calculated with Fourier one- dimensional spectral analysis. Intra-year dynamics of morbidity with EVnI was estimated basing on monthly spread of the disease cases on the RF territory. Classic seasonal decomposition, Census I technique, was applied to analyze time series of monthly morbidity. It was determined that EVnI epidemic process was unevenly spread over years in the RF in the examined period of time (2006–2019) and there were two opposite trends in it; the first one lasted from 2006 to 2010 when morbidity was declining and the second was from 2010 to 2019 when it was growing. Having analyzed manifestations of EVnI epidemi- ologic process in long-term dynamics given its uneven spread as per years, we established that it was advisable to use mathematical models approximated as per separate time periods. Average long-term morbidity with EVnI amounted to 8.09 0/0000 in the RF in 2010–2019 with growth rate being equal to 17.7 %. Maximum value was registered in 2017 (16.32 0/0000). An unfavorable prediction for further epidemic situation development was revealed for the examined pe- riod. The epidemic process was characterized with 4-year periodicity and summer-autumn seasonality with peaks usually occurring in August and September. Rates that characterized intensity of the trends in long-term morbidity dynamics and were calculated with mathematical models differed authentically from those obtained via conventional calculations of average values (χ=11.08; d.f.=1; p=0.0009).

A live vaccine from Brucella abortus strain 82 for control of cattle brucellosis in the Russian Federation

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 113-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arkady V. Ivanov ◽  
Konstantin M. Salmakov ◽  
Steven C. Olsen ◽  
Glenn E. Plumb
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Brucella Abortus ◽  
Large Body ◽  
Field Studies ◽  
Rough Strain ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
And Control ◽  
Cattle Farms ◽  
High Immunogenicity

AbstractDuring the first half of the twentieth century, widespread regulatory efforts to control cattle brucellosis due to Brucella abortus in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics were essentially non-existent, and control was limited to selective test and slaughter of serologic agglutination reactors. By the 1950s, 2–3 million cattle were being vaccinated annually with the strain 19 vaccine, but because this vaccine induced strong, long-term titers on agglutination tests that interfered with identification of cattle infected with field strains of B. abortus, its use in cattle was discontinued in 1970. Soviet scientists then began a comprehensive program of research to identify vaccines with high immunogenicity, weak responses on agglutination tests and low pathogenicity in humans, as a foundation for widespread control of cattle brucellosis. While several new vaccines that induced weak or no responses on serologic agglutination tests were identified by experiments in guinea pigs and cattle, a large body of experimental and field studies suggested that the smooth–rough strain SR82 vaccine combined the desired weak agglutination test responses with comparatively higher efficacy against brucellosis. In 1974, prior to widespread use of strain SR82 vaccine, over 5300 cattle farms across the Russian Federation were known to be infected with B. abortus. By January 2008, only 68 cattle farms in 18 regions were known to be infected with B. abortus, and strain SR82 continues to be the most widely and successfully used vaccine in many regions of the Russian Federation.

scholarly journals PROBLEMS IN THE ORGANIZATION OF EPIDEMIC SURVEILLANCE OF LEPTOSPIROSIS IN A SUBJECT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-48
Author(s):  
A. A. Nafeyev
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Laboratory Diagnosis ◽  
Natural Focus ◽  
Epidemic Process ◽  
Natural Foci ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Active Natural

This paper characterizes the epidemic process of leptospirosis. The current new herd infections are typified by: 1) the formation of new natural foci under anthropogenic and climatic factors; 2) the change in the biocenotic structure of natural foci; 3) the formation of natural foci of mixed infectious diseases of bacterial and virus etiology; 4) the change in the epidemic potential of natural foci; 5) synathropization of infectious diseases. Few or no registered leptospirosis cases in some silent areas are frequently attributable to poor differential, including laboratory, diagnosis. The epidemic process is characterized in terms of the active natural focus of leptospirosis in a long-term period.

scholarly journals State-of-the-art molecular genetic techniques in surveillance over intensity of enterovirus infection epidemic process in some constituent entities of the Siberian Federal District of the Russian Federation

2019 ◽  
pp. 42-50
Author(s):  
E.Yu. Sapega ◽  
L.V. Butakova ◽  
Trotsenko ◽  
Lapa ◽  
Perezhogin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Molecular Genetic ◽  
Clinical Manifestations ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Enterovirus Infection ◽  
Siberian Federal District ◽  
Epidemic Process ◽  
Epidemiologic Surveillance ◽  
The Russian Federation

Background. Enterovirus infection is widely spread around the world. It has different epidemiologic and clinical manifestations. However, to date, the amount of accumulated information on the epidemic process of enterovirus infection in different constituent entities of the Siberian Federal district of the Russian Federation is insufficient. Objectives. Our objectives were to investigate characteristics of the enterovirus infection epidemic process in Siberian constituent entities subjected to surveillance using the innovative molecular genetic analysis. Materials and methods. The analysis of long-term enterovirus infection incidence in the investigated constituent entities of Siberia was performed. The total number of 237 enterovirus strains circulating during 2017-2018 epidemic seasons in the analyzed regions were isolated using sequencing technique. A phylogenetic analysis of the obtained nucleotide sequences was performed. Results. The epidemiologic situation related to enterovirus infection was unfavorable in the majority of the Siberian constituent entities in the past two years. A significant increase in incidence rates was registered in the Irkutsk Region, Zabaykalsky Krai and Altai Republic. We distinguished major manifestations of the enterovirus infection epidemic process including a years-long excess of the national average and a rising trend in the annual incidence rate, prevalence of herpangina, exanthema and enterovirus meningitis in the clinical course of the disease among children aged 3–6. Prevalence of Coxsackievirus A-6 and Coxsackievirus A-9 in the landscape of circulation was revealed in a number of Siberian regions. Group incidence and imported cases were also registered. Discussion. Our results demonstrated the importance of molecular genetic monitoring of circulating enteroviruses as part of the epidemiologic surveillance. This state-of-the-art approach can reveal potential epidemiologic links between cases of the disease.

Features of Long-Term Incidence Rates of Acute Viral Upper Respiratory Tract Infections and Influenza in the Population of the Rostov Region

2021 ◽  
pp. 63-70
Author(s):  
SS Slis ◽  
EV Kovalev ◽  
AA Kononenko ◽  
OV Sergienko ◽  
EG Yanovich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Respiratory Tract Infections ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Upper Respiratory Tract ◽  
Epidemic Process ◽  
Rostov Region ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Upper Respiratory ◽  
Tract Infections

Summary. Introduction: As of today, acute viral upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) remain the most common diseases in the world and the Russian Federation and one of the most important problems of national health care. The objective of our work was to study the dynamics and intensity of the epidemic process of influenza and other URTIs in the Russian Federation and Rostov Region over a thirty-year period and to establish the main features of the disease incidence in the Rostov Region. Materials and methods: We analyzed data of annual State Reports on Sanitary and Epidemiological Wellbeing of the Population in the Russian Federation and Statistical Form No. 2 on information about infectious and parasitic diseases for the period 1990–2019 and data on the size of population using StatSoft STATISTICA 6.1.478 Russian, Microsoft Excel, and NextGIS QGIS software. Results: We found that in 1990–1999, 2000–2009, and 2010–2019, regional URTI rates tended to decrease in each subsequent decade compared to the previous one. The long-term incidence rate of URTIs in the Rostov Region was 16,099.2 ± (2.045 × 384.2) ‰оо, lower than the Russian average rate of 19,710.3 ± (2.045 × 326.4) (p = 0.05). The amplitude of fluctuations in the incidence was 8,015.4 ‰оо and 7,619.6 ‰оо in the Rostov Region and the Russian Federation, respectively. Until 1997, regional incidence rates were comparable to the national averages but demonstrated an upward trend since the year 2000. We revealed unevenness of the course of the epidemic process related to cyclicity, with an increase in the duration of cycles since 1998. It was determined that the regional incidence of influenza was significantly lower than the national average and had a tendency to decrease. The long-term influenza rate in the Rostov Region was 412.4 ± (2.045 × 131.3) (p = 0.05) or almost three times lower than that in the country 1,553.0 ± (2.045 × 301.2) (p = 0.05). The dynamics of influenza incidence in the Rostov Region also had a cyclical course with a smaller amplitude of fluctuations (3,215.1 ‰оо) than in the Russian Federation (5,164.8 ‰оо). The duration of epidemic cycles in 1990–1998 and 2002–2012 was two years but we noted a three-year cycle in 1999–2001. We established a correlation between influenza and URTI rates and population density in regional cities and various age groups: the highest URTI rates (74.9 %) were registered in children between two to 17 years of age while 52.5 % of influenza cases were adults (aged 18+). Conclusion: The established characteristics of the development of the epidemic process of influenza and URTIs in the Rostov Region prove the necessity of a differentiated approach to organizing and implementing comprehensive preventive measures within optimization of epidemiological surveillance of these diseases, and can also serve as basic criteria for disease prediction.

Selective statistical estimates of multi-year monthly concentrations of biogenous pollution of small rivers of the Northwest zone of the Russian Federation

2020 ◽  
pp. 9-13
Author(s):  
Sergey Kovalenko
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Processing ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Small Rivers ◽  
Statistical Parameters ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Statistical Estimates ◽  
Scientific Task ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Agricultural Areas

The management of surface watercourses is an urgent scientific task. The article presents the results of statistical processing of long-term monthly data of field observations of hydrological and hydrochemical parameters along the Upper Yerga small river in the Vologda region. Sampling estimates of statistical parameters are obtained, autocorrelation and correlation analyzes are performed. The limiting periods from the point of view of pollution for water receivers receiving wastewater from drained agricultural areas are identified.

Food Security Doctrine – What Has Changed in 2020

2020 ◽  
pp. 7-10
Author(s):  
T.M. Yarkova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Public Administration ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Food Policy ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Security Assessment ◽  
Social Bias ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
And Control

This article presents an analysis of the changes that have occurred in one of the most important state documents - the Food Security Doctrine of the Russian Federation. Criticism of this document can be traced in many scientific works: some experts attribute the Doctrine only to a program document, while others expect it to be implement and control, i.e. much more in practice. An assessment of the significance and essence of such a document as the doctrine as a whole made it possible to determine its place both in the system of public administration and the degree of its significance in the regulatory field. Based on the findings, an attempt was made to analyze changes in the new Doctrine of Food Security of the Russian Federation, approved by Decree of the President of Russia No. 20 of 01.21.2020. Structural changes in the new Doctrine are highlighted, as well as a critical assessment of the features of all its main sections. The greatest changes were revealed in the state food security assessment system, and it was also determined that the new version of the Doctrine has a greater social bias. If there are positive changes, some omissions of the most important areas of agri-food policy have been identified, which, despite their absence or insufficient reflection in the Doctrine, can be presented and decided at the level of subsequent documents, but only if the Doctrine in practice will be a fundamental document of public administration and regulatory framework.

DIFFRACTION ANALYSIS OF DEFORMED METALS: Theory, Methods, Programs

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Faina Satdarova
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Design ◽  
Dislocation Density ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Diffraction Analysis ◽  
Experimental Research ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Statistical Estimation ◽  
X Rays ◽  
National University ◽  
The Russian Federation

General analysis of the distribution of crystals orientation and dislocation density in the polycrystalline system is presented. Recovered information in diffraction of X-rays adopting is new to structure states of polycrystal. Shear phase transformations in metals — at the macroscopic and microscopic levels — become a clear process. Visualizing the advances is produced by program included in package delivered. Mathematical models developing, experimental design, optimal statistical estimation, simulation the system under study and evolution process on loading serves as instrumentation. To reduce advanced methods to research and studies problem-oriented software will promote when installed. Automation programs passed a testing in the National University of Science and Technology “MISIS” (The Russian Federation, Moscow). You score an advantage in theoretical and experimental research in the field of physics of metals.

Major Approaches to Assessing the Fiscal Sustainability of the Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 577-583
Author(s):  
L. A. Tuaeva ◽  
I. Z. Toguzova ◽  
S. K. Tokaeva
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Qualitative Assessment ◽  
Universal System ◽  
Russian Scientific ◽  
Analysis And Synthesis ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
State And Local

The presented study develops theoretical and methodological foundations for assessing the fiscal sustainability of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in perspective.Aim. The study aims to develop a systems approach to assessing the fiscal sustainability of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in the medium and long term.Tasks. The authors analyze the major approaches to assessing the fiscal sustainability of federal subjects and determine the significance of quantitative and qualitative assessment methods in the development of a methodology for assessing the fiscal sustainability of federal subjects in the medium and long term.Methods. This study uses scientific methods of cognition, analysis and synthesis, comparison and analogy, systems and institutional approaches to assess the fiscal sustainability of federal subjects.Results. The authors examine the major approaches to assessing the fiscal sustainability of federal subjects developed by Russian scientific schools and disciplines; approaches used by state and local authorities; approaches to assessing the fiscal sustainability of federal subjects used by international and national rating agencies; foreign experience. In general, this implies the development of a universal system of indicators for assessing the fiscal sustainability of federal subjects.Conclusions. It is substantiated that under the current conditions of new challenges, particularly in the context of the coronavirus pandemic, it is necessary to assess the long-term balance and sustainability of the budgets of federal subjects using a systems approach based on quantitative and qualitative methods, making allowance for the medium- and long-term prospects to make efficient management decisions at different levels of the economic system.

Tax incentives and control: the ways of improvement and evaluation of their implementation in the Russian Federation

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-82
Author(s):  
T. N. Vinogradova ◽  
I. V. Kravchenko
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Tax Incentives ◽  
Topical Issue ◽  
Maximum Increase ◽  
Major Development ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Tax Payments ◽  
Development Paths ◽  
And Control

The article is devoted to the topical issue of tax incentives and control in Russia. We have evaluated effectiveness of these measures in terms of current legislation and identified the main problems encountered during their implementation. Additionally, in this article we have covered major development paths of tax incentives and control in modern conditions to enhance their efficiency and achieve maximum increase in tax payments in budgets of the Russian Federation.

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