Climate Change Impacts the Protective Effect of Forests: A Case Study in Switzerland

In steep terrain, forests play an important role as natural means of protection against natural hazards, such as rockfall. Due to climate warming, significant changes in the protection service of these forests have to be expected in future. Shifts of current to more drought adapted species may result in temporary or even irreversible losses in the reduction of rockfall risk provided by these forests. In this study, we assessed how the protective capacity against rockfall of a protection forest in the western part of the Valais in the Swiss Alps may change in future, by combining dynamic forest modelling with a quantitative risk analysis. Current and future forest development was modelled with the spatially explicit forest model TreeMig under a moderate (RCP4.5) and an extreme (RCP8.5) climate change scenario. The simulated forest scenarios were compared to ground-truth data from the current forest complex. We quantified the protective effect of the different forest scenarios based on the reduction of rockfall risk for people and infrastructure at the bottom of the slope. Rockfall risk was calculated on the basis of three-dimensional rockfall simulations. The forest simulations predicted a clear decrease in basal area of most of the currently occuring species (Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies, Larix decidua, and Abies alba) in future. The forest turned into a Quercus pubescens dominated forest, for both climate scenarios, mixed with Pinus sylvestris under RCP4.5. With climate warming, a clear increase in risk is expected for both climate change scenarios. In the long-term (>100 years), a stabilization of risk, or even a slight decline may be expected due to an increase in biomass of the trees. The results of this study further indicate that regular forest interventions may promote regeneration and thus accelerate the shift in species distribution. Future research should explore into more details the long-term effect of different adaptive forest management strategies on the protection service of forests under climate change.

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Climate change impacts the protective effect of forests: A case study in Switzerland

10.21203/rs.3.rs-346221/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Christine Moos ◽

Antoine Guisan ◽

Christophe F. Randin ◽

Heike Lischke

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Protective Effect ◽

Climate Warming ◽

Swiss Alps ◽

Present Species ◽

Future Research ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Ground Truth Data

Abstract In steep terrain, forests play an important role as natural means of protection against natural hazards, such as rockfall. Due to climate warming, significant changes in the protection service of these forests have to be expected in future. Shifts of current to more drought adapted species may result in temporary or even irreversible losses in the risk reduction provided by these forests. In this study, we assessed how the protective effect against rockfall of a protection forest in the western part of the Valais in the Swiss Alps may change in future, by combining dynamic forest modelling with a quantitative risk analysis. Current and future forest development was modelled with the spatially explicit forest model TreeMig for a moderate (RCP4.5) and an extreme (RCP8.5) climate change scenario. The simulated forest scenarios were compared to ground-truth data from the current forest complex. We quantified the protective effect of the different forest scenarios based on the reduction of rockfall risk for people and infrastructure at the bottom of the slope. Rockfall risk was calculated on the basis of three-dimensional rockfall simulations. The forest simulations predicted a clear decrease in basal area of most of the currently present species in future. The forest turned into a Q. pubescens dominated forest, for both climate scenarios, and mixed with P. sylvestris in RCP4.5. F. sylvatica completely disappeared in RCP8.5. With climate warming, a clear increase in risk is expected for both climate change scenarios. In the long-term (> 100 years), a stabilization of risk, or even a slight decline may be expected due to an increase in biomass of the trees. The results of this study further indicate that regular forest interventions may promote regeneration and thus accelerate the shift in species distribution. Future research should address the long-term effect of different forest management strategies on the protection service of forests under climate change.

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Climate-change-related long-term historical and projected changes to spring barley phenological development in Lithuania

The Journal of Agricultural Science ◽

10.1017/s0021859618000904 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 156 (9) ◽

pp. 1061-1069 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

G. Sujetovienė ◽

R. Velička ◽

A. Kanapickas ◽

Z. Kriaučiūnienė ◽

D. Romanovskaja ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Spring Barley ◽

Agricultural Practices ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Vegetative Period ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Projected Changes ◽

Phenological Phases

AbstractThough the number of climate-change-related agro-phenological investigations are growing rapidly, the attention paid to spring crops has been much less than to winter ones. The objective of the current study was to investigate long-term temporal and spatial trends of spring barley phenology and to project changes in the timing and duration of different phenological phases during the current century. Higher temperatures significantly affected the potential scheduling of agricultural practices, accelerating the occurrence of sowing and emergence dates. Historical trends in harvest dates of spring barley showed a slight delay. These changes resulted in the extension of the total vegetative period of spring barley by >12 days over the period investigated (1961–2015). Since Lithuania is situated on the Baltic Sea, an increase in temperature along with an increase in distance from the sea was characteristic over the last 55 years. Projected changes in the occurrence of phenological phases of spring barley differ significantly from analysed historical changes and advancement of all phenological phases have been projected according to both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios. Shortening of the total vegetative period by 5 days is foreseen for the far (2071–2100) future according to the pessimistic (RCP 8.5) climate change scenario.

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Assessing the long-term effectiveness of Nature-Based Solutions under different climate change scenarios

The Science of The Total Environment ◽

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148515 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 148515

Author(s):

Eulalia Gómez Martín ◽

María Máñez Costa ◽

Sabine Egerer ◽

Uwe Schneider

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios

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Shared socioeconomic pathways for climate change research in Finland: co-developing extended SSP narratives for agriculture

Regional Environmental Change ◽

10.1007/s10113-020-01734-2 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Heikki S. Lehtonen ◽

Jyrki Aakkula ◽

Stefan Fronzek ◽

Janne Helin ◽

Mikael Hildén ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

National Level ◽

Global Scale ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Climate Change Research ◽

Food And Agriculture ◽

Agriculture And Food ◽

Farm Subsidies

AbstractShared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), developed at global scale, comprise narrative descriptions and quantifications of future world developments that are intended for climate change scenario analysis. However, their extension to national and regional scales can be challenging. Here, we present SSP narratives co-developed with stakeholders for the agriculture and food sector in Finland. These are derived from intensive discussions at a workshop attended by approximately 39 participants offering a range of sectoral perspectives. Using general background descriptions of the SSPs for Europe, facilitated discussions were held in parallel for each of four SSPs reflecting very different contexts for the development of the sector up to 2050 and beyond. Discussions focused on five themes from the perspectives of consumers, producers and policy-makers, included a joint final session and allowed for post-workshop feedback. Results reflect careful sector-based, national-level interpretations of the global SSPs from which we have constructed consensus narratives. Our results also show important critical remarks and minority viewpoints. Interesting features of the Finnish narratives compared to the global SSP narratives include greater emphasis on environmental quality; significant land abandonment in SSPs with reduced livestock production and increased plant-based diets; continued need for some farm subsidies across all SSPs and opportunities for diversifying domestic production under scenarios of restricted trade. Our results can contribute to the development of more detailed national long-term scenarios for food and agriculture that are both relevant for local stakeholders and researchers as well as being consistent with global scenarios being applied internationally.

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Climate change drives mountain butterflies towards the summits

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-93826-0 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Dennis Rödder ◽

Thomas Schmitt ◽

Patrick Gros ◽

Werner Ulrich ◽

Jan Christian Habel

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Life History ◽

Climate Warming ◽

Environmental Changes ◽

Range Shifts ◽

Solar Irradiation ◽

High Mountain ◽

Detailed Knowledge ◽

Annual Range

AbstractClimate change impacts biodiversity and is driving range shifts of species and populations across the globe. To understand the effects of climate warming on biota, long-term observations of the occurrence of species and detailed knowledge on their ecology and life-history is crucial. Mountain species particularly suffer under climate warming and often respond to environmental changes by altitudinal range shifts. We assessed long-term distribution trends of mountain butterflies across the eastern Alps and calculated species’ specific annual range shifts based on field observations and species distribution models, counterbalancing the potential drawbacks of both approaches. We also compiled details on the ecology, behaviour and life-history, and the climate niche of each species assessed. We found that the highest altitudinal maxima were observed recently in the majority of cases, while the lowest altitudes of observations were recorded before 1980. Mobile and generalist species with a broad ecological amplitude tended to move uphill more than specialist and sedentary species. As main drivers we identified climatic conditions and topographic variables, such as insolation and solar irradiation. This study provides important evidence for responses of high mountain taxa to rapid climate change. Our study underlines the advantage of combining historical surveys and museum collection data with cutting-edge analyses.

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Climate Change Influences Basidiome Emergence of Leaf-Cutting Ant Cultivars

Journal of Fungi ◽

10.3390/jof7110912 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 7 (11) ◽

pp. 912

Author(s):

Rodolfo Bizarria ◽

Pepijn W. Kooij ◽

Andre Rodrigues

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Nest Architecture ◽

Historical Records ◽

Climate Data ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Data Analyses ◽

Symbiotic Mutualism ◽

Leaf Cutting

Maintaining symbiosis homeostasis is essential for mutualistic partners. Leaf-cutting ants evolved a long-term symbiotic mutualism with fungal cultivars for nourishment while using vertical asexual transmission across generations. Despite the ants’ efforts to suppress fungal sexual reproduction, scattered occurrences of cultivar basidiomes have been reported. Here, we review the literature for basidiome occurrences and associated climate data. We hypothesized that more basidiome events could be expected in scenarios with an increase in temperature and precipitation. Our field observations and climate data analyses indeed suggest that Acromyrmex coronatus colonies are prone to basidiome occurrences in warmer and wetter seasons. Even though our study partly depended on historical records, occurrences have increased, correlating with climate change. A nest architecture with low (or even the lack of) insulation might be the cause of this phenomenon. The nature of basidiome occurrences in the A. coronatus–fungus mutualism can be useful to elucidate how resilient mutualistic symbioses are in light of climate change scenarios.

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Soil salinization under different climate change scenarios: A global scale analysis

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13668 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Nima Shokri ◽

Amirhossein Hassani ◽

Adisa Azapagic

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Soil Salinity ◽

Global Scale ◽

Soil Salinization ◽

Water Evaporation ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

Salt Affected Soils

Population growth and climate change is projected to increase the pressure on land and water resources, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. This pressure is expected to affect all driving mechanisms of soil salinization comprising alteration in soil hydrological balance, sea salt intrusion, wet/dry deposition of wind-born saline aerosols &#8212; leading to an increase in soil salinity. Soil salinity influences soil stability, bio-diversity, ecosystem functioning and soil water evaporation (1). It can be a long-term threat to agricultural activities and food security. To devise sustainable action plan investments and policy interventions, it is crucial to know when and where salt-affected soils occur. However, current estimates on spatio-temporal variability of salt-affected soils are majorly localized and future projections in response to climate change are rare. Using Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, we related the available measured soil salinity values (represented by electrical conductivity of the saturated paste soil extract, ECe) to some environmental information (or predictors including outputs of Global Circulation Models, soil, crop, topographic, climatic, vegetative, and landscape properties of the sampling locations) to develop a set of data-driven predictive tools to enable the spatio-temporal predictions of soil salinity. The outputs of these tools helped us to estimate the extent and severity of the soil salinity under current and future climatic patterns at different geographical levels and identify the salinization hotspots by the end of the 21st century in response to climate change. Our analysis suggests that a soil area of 11.73 Mkm2 located in non-frigid zones has been salt-affected in at least three-fourths of the 1980 - 2018 period (2). At the country level, Brazil, Peru, Sudan, Colombia, and Namibia were estimated to have the highest rates of annual increase in the total area of soils with an ECe &#8805; 4 dS m-1. Additionally, the results indicate that by the end of the 21st century, drylands of South America, southern and Western Australia, Mexico, southwest United States, and South Africa will be the salinization hotspots (compared to the 1961 - 1990 period). The results of this study could inform decision-making and contribute to attaining the United Nation&#8217;s Sustainable Development Goals for land and water resources management.1. Shokri-Kuehni, S.M.S., Raaijmakers, B., Kurz, T., Or, D., Helmig, R., Shokri, N. (2020). Water Table Depth and Soil Salinization: From Pore-Scale Processes to Field-Scale Responses. Water Resour. Res., 56, e2019WR026707. https://doi.org/ 10.1029/2019WR0267072. Hassani, A., Azapagic, A., Shokri, N. (2020). Predicting Long-term Dynamics of Soil Salinity and Sodicity on a Global Scale, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 117, 52, 33017&#8211;33027. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2013771117

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A Hydrological Modeling Approach for Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff Regimes in Slovakia

Water ◽

10.3390/w13233358 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (23) ◽

pp. 3358

Author(s):

Patrik Sleziak ◽

Roman Výleta ◽

Kamila Hlavčová ◽

Michaela Danáčová ◽

Milica Aleksić ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Performance Metrics ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Reference Period ◽

Changing Climate ◽

Time Horizons ◽

The Future

The changing climate is a concern with regard to sustainable water resources. Projections of the runoff in future climate conditions are needed for long-term planning of water resources and flood protection. In this study, we evaluate the possible climate change impacts on the runoff regime in eight selected basins located in the whole territory of Slovakia. The projected runoff in the basins studied for the reference period (1981–2010) and three future time horizons (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) was simulated using the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) bucket-type model (the TUW (Technische Universität Wien) model). A calibration strategy based on the selection of the most suitable decade in the observation period for the parameterization of the model was applied. The model was first calibrated using observations, and then was driven by the precipitation and air temperatures projected by the KNMI (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut) and MPI (Max Planck Institute) regional climate models (RCM) under the A1B emission scenario. The model’s performance metrics and a visual inspection showed that the simulated runoff using downscaled inputs from both RCM models for the reference period represents the simulated hydrological regimes well. An evaluation of the future, which was performed by considering the representative climate change scenarios, indicated that changes in the long-term runoff’s seasonality and extremality could be expected in the future. In the winter months, the runoff should increase, and decrease in the summer months compared to the reference period. The maximum annual daily runoff could be more extreme for the later time horizons (according to the KNMI scenario for 2071–2100). The results from this study could be useful for policymakers and river basin authorities for the optimum planning and management of water resources under a changing climate.

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Climate change will impact the protective effect of forests against rockfall

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-246 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Christine Moos ◽

Antoine Guisan ◽

Randin Christophe ◽

Lischke Heike

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Protective Effect ◽

Natural Disturbance ◽

High Elevation ◽

Swiss Alps ◽

Protective Capacity ◽

Forest Modelling ◽

Mountain Areas ◽

Protective Function ◽

Extreme Climate

In mountain areas, forests play a crucial role in protecting people and assets from natural hazards, such as rockfall. Their protective effect is strongly influenced by their structure and state, which are expected to be affected by climate change. More frequent drought events, but also changing natural disturbance regimes, may lead to abrupt diebacks of contemporary species followed by a slow reforestation. In this study, we investigated how a changing climate can affect the protective capacity of mountain forests against rockfall. We therefore combined dynamic forest modelling with a detailed rockfall risk analysis at three case study sites in the Western Swiss Alps. Future forest development was simulated for a moderate and an extreme climate scenario for 200 years with the dynamic forest model TreeMig (Lischke et al., 2006). We then calculated rockfall risk for different forest states based on three-dimensional rockfall simulations with RockyFor3D (Dorren 2016). First results indicate that both at high elevation near the tree line (1500-2200 m a.s.l.) as well as at lower elevations (500-1000 m a.s.l.), increasing drought can lead to diebacks of trees and a reduction of tree density and diameters resulting in a substantial loss of the protective function. Depending on the speed of migration of other, more drought tolerant species, this loss can be partially compensated, but a permanent reduction of the protective effect is to be expected at least for an extreme climate scneario due to a reduced basal area of the forest.

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Physiological and morphological effects of climate change

Effects of Climate Change on Birds ◽

10.1093/oso/9780198824268.003.0010 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 120-133 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Andrew E. McKechnie

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Body Mass ◽

High Temperatures ◽

Arid Zone ◽

Future Research ◽

Long Term Effects ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

Heat Events

The direct impacts of higher temperatures on birds are manifested over timescales ranging from minutes and hours to years and decades. Over short timescales, acute exposure to high temperatures can lead to hyperthermia or dehydration, which among arid-zone species occasionally causes catastrophic mortality events. Over intermediate timescales of days to weeks, high temperatures can have chronic sub-lethal effects via body mass loss or reduced nestling growth rates, negatively affecting sev eral fitness components. Long-term effects of warming manifested over years to decades involve declining body mass or changes in appendage size. Key directions for future research include elucidating the role of phenotypic plasticity and epigenetic processes in avian adaptation to climate change, examining the role of stress pathways in mediating responses to heat events, and understanding the consequences of higher temperatures for species that traverse hot regions while migrating.

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