scholarly journals Invasion and Extirpation Potential of Native and Invasive Spartina Species Under Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco O. Borges ◽  
Catarina P. Santos ◽  
José R. Paula ◽  
Enrique Mateos-Naranjo ◽  
Susana Redondo-Gomez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Salt Marshes ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Environmental Predictors ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Invasion Potential ◽  
Global Trend ◽  
Environmental Agents ◽  
Successful Invader ◽  
General Range

Coastal areas host some of the planet’s most productive ecosystems, providing life-sustaining ecological services and several benefits to humankind, while also being some of the most threatened areas (e.g., by globalization, climate change, and biological invasion). Salt marshes are coastal habitats with a key role in food and shelter provisioning, sediment deposition, nutrient cycling and carbon storage. Spartina spp. is a genus of grass halophytes which occurs in salt marshes worldwide, and includes species with different invasive potential. We evaluated the effect of climate change in the distribution and invasion potential of five Spartina species (S. anglica, S. alterniflora, S. densiflora, S. patens, and S. maritima) at a global scale. Species distribution models (SDMs) were applied on species occurrence data and atmospheric environmental predictors (WorldClim 2.1) to project potential changes in habitat suitability and associated changes in distribution and species co-occurrence until the end of the century, across four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5). Projections showed a global trend for increasing species co-occurrence, with a general range expansion potentiated by increasing pathway severity. This study suggests that Spartina species can potentially benefit from climate change, predicting poleward expansions in the Northern Hemisphere for most species, with results pointing at increased conflict and invasion potential in Northern Europe and East Asian shorelines, already under strong invasive pressure. S. anglica is projected to remain a successful invader, with more severe scenarios likely favoring greater expansions. S. alterniflora exhibits very low expansion comparatively, despite exhibiting the same northward distribution shift. SSP1-2.6 produced the smallest change to species co-occurrence, suggesting a smaller potential for invasion-related conflicts, although still registering a potential net expansion for the Genus. Despite their limitations, SDMs can help establish general trends in climate change ecology and inform policymakers and environmental agents to ensure the correct management of these habitats and, ultimately, ecosystems.

scholarly journals Multi-model ensemble projections of climate change effects on global marine biodiversity

2014 ◽  
Vol 72 (3) ◽  
pp. 741-752 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miranda C. Jones ◽  
William W. L. Cheung
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Marine Biodiversity ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Distribution Shifts ◽  
Species Specific

Abstract Species distribution models (SDMs) are important tools to explore the effects of future global changes in biodiversity. Previous studies show that variability is introduced into projected distributions through alternative datasets and modelling procedures. However, a multi-model approach to assess biogeographic shifts at the global scale is still rarely applied, particularly in the marine environment. Here, we apply three commonly used SDMs (AquaMaps, Maxent, and the Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model) to assess the global patterns of change in species richness, invasion, and extinction intensity in the world oceans. We make species-specific projections of distribution shift using each SDM, subsequently aggregating them to calculate indices of change across a set of 802 species of exploited marine fish and invertebrates. Results indicate an average poleward latitudinal shift across species and SDMs at a rate of 15.5 and 25.6 km decade−1 for a low and high emissions climate change scenario, respectively. Predicted distribution shifts resulted in hotspots of local invasion intensity in high latitude regions, while local extinctions were concentrated near the equator. Specifically, between 10°N and 10°S, we predicted that, on average, 6.5 species would become locally extinct per 0.5° latitude under the climate change emissions scenario Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Average invasions were predicted to be 2.0 species per 0.5° latitude in the Arctic Ocean and 1.5 species per 0.5° latitude in the Southern Ocean. These averaged global hotspots of invasion and local extinction intensity are robust to the different SDM used and coincide with high levels of agreement.

scholarly journals A 1-km global dataset of historical (1979–2017) and future (2020–2100) Köppen-Geiger climate classification and bioclimatic variables

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diyang Cui ◽  
Shunlin Liang ◽  
Dongdong Wang ◽  
Zheng Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Climate Classification ◽  
Climate Zones ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables

Abstract. The Köppen-Geiger climate classification scheme provides an effective and ecologically meaningful way to characterize climatic conditions and has been widely applied in climate change studies. The Köppen-Geiger climate maps currently available are limited by relatively low spatial resolution, poor accuracy, and noncomparable time periods. Comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts requires a more accurate depiction of fine-grained climatic conditions and continuous long-term time coverage. Here, we present a series of improved 1-km Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps for ten historical periods in 1979–2017 and four future periods in 2020–2099 under RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5. The historical maps are derived from multiple downscaled observational datasets and the future maps are derived from an ensemble of bias-corrected downscaled CMIP5 projections. In addition to climate classification maps, we calculate 12 bioclimatic variables at 1-km resolution, providing detailed descriptions of annual averages, seasonality, and stressful conditions of climates. The new maps offer higher classification accuracy and demonstrate the ability to capture recent and future projected changes in spatial distributions of climate zones. On regional and continental scales, the new maps show accurate depictions of topographic features and correspond closely with vegetation distributions. We also provide a heuristic application example to detect long-term global-scale area changes of climate zones. This high-resolution dataset of Köppen-Geiger climate classification and bioclimatic variables can be used in conjunction with species distribution models to promote biodiversity conservation and to analyze and identify recent and future interannual or interdecadal changes in climate zones on a global or regional scale. The dataset referred to as KGClim, is publicly available at http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4546140 for historical climate and http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4542076 for future climate.

DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION OF EMULATORS FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF THE GLOBAL-SCALE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

2019 ◽  
Vol 75 (5) ◽  
pp. I_73-I_80
Author(s):  
Jun’ya TAKAKURA ◽  
Shinichiro FUJIMORI ◽  
Kiyoshi TAKAHASHI ◽  
Qian ZHOU ◽  
Naota HANASAKI ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change

scholarly journals Endemic Juniperus Montane Species Facing Extinction Risk under Climate Change in Southwest China: Integrative Approach for Conservation Assessment and Prioritization

Biology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Mohammed A. Dakhil ◽  
Marwa Waseem A. Halmy ◽  
Walaa A. Hassan ◽  
Ali El-Keblawy ◽  
Kaiwen Pan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
In Situ Conservation ◽  
Integrative Approach ◽  
Conservation Assessment ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Area Of Occupancy ◽  
Annual Range ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is an important driver of biodiversity loss and extinction of endemic montane species. In China, three endemic Juniperus spp. (Juniperuspingii var. pingii, J.tibetica, and J.komarovii) are threatened and subjected to the risk of extinction. This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species under climate change and dispersal scenarios, to identify critical drivers explaining their potential distributions, to assess the extinction risk by estimating the loss percentage in their area of occupancy (AOO), and to identify priority areas for their conservation in China. We used ensemble modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change and project AOO. Our results revealed that the projected AOOs followed a similar trend in the three Juniperus species, which predicted an entire loss of their suitable habitats under both climate and dispersal scenarios. Temperature annual range and isothermality were the most critical key variables explaining the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species; they contribute by 16–56.1% and 20.4–38.3%, respectively. Accounting for the use of different thresholds provides a balanced approach for species distribution models’ applications in conservation assessment when the goal is to assess potential climatic suitability in new geographical areas. Therefore, south Sichuan and north Yunnan could be considered important priority conservation areas for in situ conservation and search for unknown populations of these three Juniperus species.

scholarly journals Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
James S. Clark ◽  
Robert Andrus ◽  
Melaine Aubry-Kientz ◽  
Yves Bergeron ◽  
Michal Bogdziewicz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Climate Condition ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
The West ◽  
Climate Effects ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Demographic Rates ◽  
Species Abundances ◽  
Meta Analyses

AbstractIndirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.

scholarly journals Vulnerability to climate change of a microendemic lizard species from the central Andes

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Laspiur ◽  
J. C. Santos ◽  
S. M. Medina ◽  
J. E. Pizarro ◽  
E. A. Sanabria ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Activity Patterns ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Behavioral Thermoregulation ◽  
Rapid Loss ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Lizard Species ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change

AbstractGiven the rapid loss of biodiversity as consequence of climate change, greater knowledge of ecophysiological and natural history traits are crucial to determine which environmental factors induce stress and drive the decline of threatened species. Liolaemus montanezi (Liolaemidae), a xeric-adapted lizard occurring only in a small geographic range in west-central Argentina, constitutes an excellent model for studies on the threats of climate change on such microendemic species. We describe field data on activity patterns, use of microhabitat, behavioral thermoregulation, and physiology to produce species distribution models (SDMs) based on climate and ecophysiological data. Liolaemus montanezi inhabits a thermally harsh environment which remarkably impacts their activity and thermoregulation. The species shows a daily bimodal pattern of activity and mostly occupies shaded microenvironments. Although the individuals thermoregulate at body temperatures below their thermal preference they avoid high-temperature microenvironments probably to avoid overheating. The population currently persists because of the important role of the habitat physiognomy and not because of niche tracking, seemingly prevented by major rivers that form boundaries of their geographic range. We found evidence of habitat opportunities in the current range and adjacent areas that will likely remain suitable to the year 2070, reinforcing the relevance of the river floodplain for the species’ avoidance of extinction.

scholarly journals Shared socioeconomic pathways for climate change research in Finland: co-developing extended SSP narratives for agriculture

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Heikki S. Lehtonen ◽  
Jyrki Aakkula ◽  
Stefan Fronzek ◽  
Janne Helin ◽  
Mikael Hildén ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
National Level ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Food And Agriculture ◽  
Agriculture And Food ◽  
Farm Subsidies

AbstractShared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), developed at global scale, comprise narrative descriptions and quantifications of future world developments that are intended for climate change scenario analysis. However, their extension to national and regional scales can be challenging. Here, we present SSP narratives co-developed with stakeholders for the agriculture and food sector in Finland. These are derived from intensive discussions at a workshop attended by approximately 39 participants offering a range of sectoral perspectives. Using general background descriptions of the SSPs for Europe, facilitated discussions were held in parallel for each of four SSPs reflecting very different contexts for the development of the sector up to 2050 and beyond. Discussions focused on five themes from the perspectives of consumers, producers and policy-makers, included a joint final session and allowed for post-workshop feedback. Results reflect careful sector-based, national-level interpretations of the global SSPs from which we have constructed consensus narratives. Our results also show important critical remarks and minority viewpoints. Interesting features of the Finnish narratives compared to the global SSP narratives include greater emphasis on environmental quality; significant land abandonment in SSPs with reduced livestock production and increased plant-based diets; continued need for some farm subsidies across all SSPs and opportunities for diversifying domestic production under scenarios of restricted trade. Our results can contribute to the development of more detailed national long-term scenarios for food and agriculture that are both relevant for local stakeholders and researchers as well as being consistent with global scenarios being applied internationally.

scholarly journals Reduced resilience of terrestrial ecosystems locally is not reflected on a global scale

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuhao Feng ◽  
Haojie Su ◽  
Zhiyao Tang ◽  
Shaopeng Wang ◽  
Xia Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystem ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Ecological Resilience ◽  
Terrestrial Vegetation ◽  
Ecosystem Resilience

AbstractGlobal climate change likely alters the structure and function of vegetation and the stability of terrestrial ecosystems. It is therefore important to assess the factors controlling ecosystem resilience from local to global scales. Here we assess terrestrial vegetation resilience over the past 35 years using early warning indicators calculated from normalized difference vegetation index data. On a local scale we find that climate change reduced the resilience of ecosystems in 64.5% of the global terrestrial vegetated area. Temperature had a greater influence on vegetation resilience than precipitation, while climate mean state had a greater influence than climate variability. However, there is no evidence for decreased ecological resilience on larger scales. Instead, climate warming increased spatial asynchrony of vegetation which buffered the global-scale impacts on resilience. We suggest that the response of terrestrial ecosystem resilience to global climate change is scale-dependent and influenced by spatial asynchrony on the global scale.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document