Wave Climate Associated With Changing Water Level and Ice Cover in Lake Michigan

Detailed knowledge of wave climate change is essential for understanding coastal geomorphological processes, ecosystem resilience, the design of offshore and coastal engineering structures and aquaculture systems. In Lake Michigan, the in-situ wave observations suitable for long-term analysis are limited to two offshore MetOcean buoys. Since this distribution is inadequate to fully represent spatial patterns of wave climate across the lake, a series of high-resolution SWAN model simulations were performed for the analysis of long-term wave climate change for the entirety of Lake Michigan from 1979 to 2020. Model results were validated against observations from two offshore buoys and 16 coastal buoys. Linear regression analysis of significant wave height (Hs) (mean, 90th percentile, and 99th percentile) across the entire lake using this 42-year simulation suggests that there is no simple linear trend of long-term changes of Hs for the majority (>90%) of the lake. To address the inadequacy of linear trend analysis used in previous studies, a 10-year trailing moving mean was applied to the Hs statistics to remove seasonal and annual variability, focusing on identifying long-term wave climate change. Model results reveal the regime shifts of Hs that correspond to long-term lake water level changes. Specifically, downward trends of Hs were found in the decade of 1990–2000; low Hs during 2000–2010 coincident with low lake levels; and upward trends of Hs were found during 2010–2020 along with rising water levels. The coherent pattern between the wave climate and the water level was hypothesized to result from changing storm frequency and intensity crossing the lake basin, which influences both waves (instantly through increased wind stress on the surface) and water levels (following, with a lag through precipitation and runoff). Hence, recent water level increases and wave growth were likely associated with increased storminess observed in the Great Lakes. With regional warming, the decrease in ice cover in Lake Michigan (particularly in the northernmost region of the lake) favored the wave growth in the winter due to increased surface wind stress, wind fetch, and wave transmission. Model simulations suggest that the basin-wide Hs can increase significantly during the winter season with projected regional warming and associated decreases in winter ice cover. The recent increases in wave height and water level, along with warming climate and ice reduction, may yield increasing coastal damages such as accelerating coastal erosion.

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Interannual Response of Reef Islands to Climate-Driven Variations in Water Level and Wave Climate

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs12244089 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (24) ◽

pp. 4089

Author(s):

Michael V. W. Cuttler ◽

Kilian Vos ◽

Paul Branson ◽

Jeff E. Hansen ◽

Michael O’Leary ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Coral Reef ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Wave Climate ◽

Water Levels ◽

Short Term ◽

Island Evolution ◽

Reef Islands ◽

Wave Conditions

Coral reef islands are among the most vulnerable landforms to climate change. However, our understanding of their morphodynamics at intermediate (seasonal to interannual) timescales remains poor, limiting our ability to forecast how they will evolve in the future. Here, we applied a semi-automated shoreline detection technique (CoastSat.islands) to 20 years of publicly available satellite imagery to investigate the evolution of a group of reef islands located in the eastern Indian Ocean. At interannual timescales, island changes were characterized by the cyclical re-organization of island shorelines in response to the variability in water levels and wave conditions. Interannual variability in forcing parameters was driven by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles, causing prolonged changes to water levels and wave conditions that established new equilibrium island morphologies. Our results present a new opportunity to measure intermediate temporal scale changes in island morphology that can complement existing short-term (weekly to seasonal) and long-term (decadal) understanding of reef island evolution.

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Analysis of Long-Term Water Level Variations in Qinghai Lake in China

Water ◽

10.3390/w11102136 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (10) ◽

pp. 2136 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Fang ◽

Li ◽

Rubinato ◽

Ma ◽

Zhou ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tibetan Plateau ◽

Water Level ◽

Water Levels ◽

Qinghai Lake ◽

The Tibetan Plateau ◽

Climate Change Effects ◽

Water Level Variations ◽

Respective Contribution

Qinghai Lake is the largest inland saline lake on the Tibetan Plateau. Climate change and catchment modifications induced by human activities are the main drivers playing a significant role in the dramatic variation of water levels in the lake (Δh); hence, it is crucial to provide a better understanding of the impacts caused by these phenomena. However, their respective contribution to and influence on water level variations in Qinghai Lake are still unclear and without characterizing them, targeted measures for a more efficient conservation and management of the lake cannot be implemented. In this paper, data monitored during the period 1960–2016 (e.g., meteorological and land use data) have been analyzed by applying multiple techniques to fill this gap and estimate the contribution of each parameter recorded to water level variations (Δh). Results obtained have demonstrated that the water level of Qinghai Lake declined between 1960 and 2004, and since then has risen continuously and gradually, due to the changes in evaporation rates, precipitation and consequently surface runoff associated with climate change effects and catchment modifications. The authors have also pinpointed that climate change is the main leading cause impacting the water level in Qinghai Lake because results demonstrated that 93.13% of water level variations can be attributable to it, while the catchment modifications are responsible for 6.87%. This is a very important outcome in the view of the fact that global warming clearly had a profound impact in this sensitive and responsive region, affecting hydrological processes in the largest inland lake of the Tibetan Plateau.

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The effects of ENSO, climate change and human activities on the water level of Lake Toba, Indonesia: a critical literature review

Geoscience Letters ◽

10.1186/s40562-021-00191-x ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Hendri Irwandi ◽

Mohammad Syamsu Rosid ◽

Terry Mart

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Level ◽

Human Activities ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Water Levels ◽

Dominant Factor ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Continuous Increase ◽

The Future

AbstractThis research quantitatively and qualitatively analyzes the factors responsible for the water level variations in Lake Toba, North Sumatra Province, Indonesia. According to several studies carried out from 1993 to 2020, changes in the water level were associated with climate variability, climate change, and human activities. Furthermore, these studies stated that reduced rainfall during the rainy season due to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the continuous increase in the maximum and average temperatures were some of the effects of climate change in the Lake Toba catchment area. Additionally, human interventions such as industrial activities, population growth, and damage to the surrounding environment of the Lake Toba watershed had significant impacts in terms of decreasing the water level. However, these studies were unable to determine the factor that had the most significant effect, although studies on other lakes worldwide have shown these factors are the main causes of fluctuations or decreases in water levels. A simulation study of Lake Toba's water balance showed the possibility of having a water surplus until the mid-twenty-first century. The input discharge was predicted to be greater than the output; therefore, Lake Toba could be optimized without affecting the future water level. However, the climate projections depicted a different situation, with scenarios predicting the possibility of extreme climate anomalies, demonstrating drier climatic conditions in the future. This review concludes that it is necessary to conduct an in-depth, comprehensive, and systematic study to identify the most dominant factor among the three that is causing the decrease in the Lake Toba water level and to describe the future projected water level.

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Lake water level response to drought in a lake-rich region explained by lake and landscape characteristics

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences ◽

10.1139/cjfas-2019-0270 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 77 (11) ◽

pp. 1836-1845

Author(s):

K. Martin Perales ◽

Catherine L. Hein ◽

Noah R. Lottig ◽

M. Jake Vander Zanden

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Level ◽

Lake Water ◽

Water Levels ◽

Water Level Fluctuations ◽

Lake Area ◽

Lake Water Level ◽

Landscape Characteristics ◽

Lake Ecology ◽

Coarse Woody Habitat

Climate change is altering hydrologic regimes, with implications for lake water levels. While lakes within lake districts experience the same climate, lakes may exhibit differential climate vulnerability regarding water level response to drought. We took advantage of a recent drought (∼2005–2010) and estimated changes in lake area, water level, and shoreline position on 47 lakes in northern Wisconsin using high-resolution orthoimagery and hypsographic curves. We developed a model predicting water level response to drought to identify characteristics of the most vulnerable lakes in the region, which indicated that low-conductivity seepage lakes found high in the landscape, with little surrounding wetland and highly permeable soils, showed the greatest water level declines. To explore potential changes in the littoral zone, we estimated coarse woody habitat (CWH) loss during the drought and found that drainage lakes lost 0.8% CWH while seepage lakes were disproportionately impacted, with a mean loss of 40% CWH. Characterizing how lakes and lake districts respond to drought will further our understanding of how climate change may alter lake ecology via water level fluctuations.

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Impact of Climate Change on Nearshore Waves at a Beach Protected by a Barrier Reef

Water ◽

10.3390/w12061681 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (6) ◽

pp. 1681

Author(s):

Claude la Hausse de Lalouvière ◽

Vicente Gracia ◽

Joan Pau Sierra ◽

Jue Lin-Ye ◽

Manuel García-León

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Coral Reef ◽

Extreme Event ◽

Wave Climate ◽

Water Levels ◽

Barrier Reef ◽

Protective Capacity ◽

Protective Function ◽

Climate Change Effects ◽

Nearshore Waves

Barrier reefs dissipate most incoming wind-generated waves and, as a consequence, regulate the morphodynamics of its inbounded shorelines. The coastal protective capacity of reefs may nevertheless be compromised by climate change effects, such as reef degradation and sea-level rise. To assess the magnitude of these climate change effects, an analysis of the waves propagating across the barrier reef is carried out in Flic-en-Flac beach, Mauritius, based on scenarios of future sea levels and predicted coral reef condition. In the study, both the mean wave climate and extreme event conditions are considered. The results show that lower coral structure complexity jointly with higher water levels allow for higher waves to pass over the reef and, therefore, to reach the shoreline. In addition, modeling for cyclonic conditions showed that nearshore waves would also increase in height, which could lead to major coastal morphodynamic changes. Measures aimed at preserving the coral reef may allow the system to accommodate for the gradual climatic changes forecasted while keeping its coastal protective function.

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Sedimentary Cladocera as indicators of past water-level changes in shallow northern lakes

Quaternary Research ◽

10.1016/j.yqres.2011.02.007 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 75 (3) ◽

pp. 430-437 ◽

Cited By ~ 33

Author(s):

Liisa Nevalainen ◽

Kaarina Sarmaja-Korjonen ◽

Tomi P. Luoto

Keyword(s):

Water Level ◽

Lake Level ◽

Water Levels ◽

Sediment Record ◽

Inference Model ◽

Water Level Changes ◽

Long Term Changes ◽

Lower Water Level ◽

The Relationship

AbstractThe usability of subfossil Cladocera assemblages in reconstructing long-term changes in lake level was examined by testing the relationship between Cladocera-based planktonic/littoral (P/L) ratio and water-level inference model in a surface-sediment dataset and in a 2000-yr sediment record in Finland. The relationships between measured and inferred water levels and P/L ratios were significant in the dataset, implying that littoral taxa are primarily deposited in shallow littoral areas, while planktonic cladocerans accumulate abundantly mainly in deepwater locations. The 2000-yr water-level reconstructions based on the water-level inference model and P/L ratio corresponded closely with each other and with a previously available midge-inferred water-level reconstruction from the same core, showing a period of lower water level around AD 300–1000 and suggesting that the methods are valid for paleolimnological and -climatological use.

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Long-Term Tidal Water Level Measurements in Abu Dhabi Emirate

Volume 4: Ocean Engineering; Offshore Renewable Energy ◽

10.1115/omae2008-57903 ◽

2008 ◽

Author(s):

Khaled A. Mohamed

Keyword(s):

Water Level ◽

Water Levels ◽

Abu Dhabi ◽

Tidal Analysis ◽

Tidal Motion ◽

Tidal Water ◽

Abu Dhabi Emirate ◽

Tidal Constituents ◽

Water Level Measurements

Abu Dhabi Emirate, United Arab Emirates has a unique tidal system. Understanding the tidal hydrodynamics in Abu Dhabi waters is very important for the design of the hydraulic structures and in the marine environmental studies. The objective of this study is to investigate the tidal water levels and tidal motion in Abu Dhabi, making use of the long-term water levels available. To achieve the aim of the study, the National Energy and Water Research Center (NEWRC) of Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Authority installed tidal gauges at different locations in Abu Dhabi waters to obtain long-term water level measurements. At present, long-term water level measurements for at least 3 years period are available at different locations in Abu Dhabi waters. Tidal analysis was carried out on the available data to determine the characteristics of the tidal wave in Abu Dhabi Emirate and to get the main tidal constituents affecting the tidal motion. The obtained tidal constituents are used in updating and improving the boundary conditions of the numerical hydrodynamic models simulating the flow pattern in Abu Dhabi waters. The set up of the water level measurement program in Abu Dhabi waters and the results of the tidal analysis are presented and discussed in the paper.

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May long-term historical hydrological data be misleading for flood frequency analysis in current conditions of climate change?

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-1140 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Alexandra Fedorova ◽

Nataliia Nesterova ◽

Olga Makarieva ◽

Andrey Shikhov

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Level ◽

Frequency Analysis ◽

Flood Frequency ◽

Flood Frequency Analysis ◽

Economic Damage ◽

Irkutsk Region ◽

Extreme Flood ◽

The Town

In June 2019, the extreme flash flood was formed on the rivers of the Irkutsk region originating from the East Sayan mountains. This flood became the most hazardous one in the region in 80 years history of observations.The greatest rise in water level was recorded at the Iya River in the town of Tulun (more than 9 m in three days). The recorded water level was more than 5 m above the dangerous mark of 850 cm and more than 2.5 m above the historical maximum water level which was observed in 1984.The flood led to the catastrophic inundation of the town of Tulun, 25 people died and 8 went missing. According to preliminary assessment, economic damage from the flood in 2019 amounted up to half a billion Euro.Among the reasons for the extreme flood in June 2019 that are discussed are heavy rains as a result of climate change, melting of snow and glaciers in the mountains of the East Sayan, deforestation of river basins due to clearings and fires, etc.The aim of the study was to analyze the factors that led to the formation of a catastrophic flood in June 2019, as well as estimate the maximum discharge of at the Iya River. For calculations, the deterministic distributed hydrological model Hydrograph was applied. We used the observed data of meteorological stations and the forecast values &#226;&#128;&#139;&#226;&#128;&#139;of the global weather forecast model ICON. The estimated discharge has exceeded previously observed one by about 50%.The results of the study have shown that recent flood damage was caused mainly by unprepared infrastructure. The safety dam which was built in the town of Tulun just ten years ago was 2 meters lower than maximum observed water level in 2019. This case and many other cases in Russia suggest that the flood frequency analysis of even long-term historical data may mislead design engineers to significantly underestimate the probability and magnitude of flash floods. There are the evidences of observed precipitation regime transformations which directly contribute to the formation of dangerous hydrological phenomena. The details of the study for the Irkutsk region will be presented.

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Stratigraphy of the Sixteen Mile Creek lagoon, and its implications for Lake Ontario water levels

Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences ◽

10.1139/e88-115 ◽

1988 ◽

Vol 25 (8) ◽

pp. 1175-1183 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

J. E. Flint ◽

R. W. Dalrymple ◽

J. J. Flint

Keyword(s):

Water Level ◽

Lake Michigan ◽

Drainage Basin ◽

Average Rate ◽

Lake Ontario ◽

Open Water ◽

Water Levels ◽

Beach Sand ◽

Water Level Fluctuations ◽

Lake Outlet

The sequence of units (from the base up) in the Sixteen Mile Creek lagoon (Lake Ontario) mimics the longitudinal sequence of surficial environments: pink silt—overbank (flood plain – dry marsh); bottom sand—stream channel and beach; orange silt—marsh; gyttja—wet marsh and very shallow (deltaic) lagoon; and brown and grey clay—open-water lagoon. This entire sequence accumulated over the last 4200 years under slowly deepening, transgressive conditions caused by the isostatic rise of the lake outlet. Land clearing by European settlers dramatically increased the supply of clastic sediment and terminated the deposition of the organic-rich silty clays (gyttja) that make up most of the lagoon fill.Because the gyttja and beach sand are interpreted to have accumulated in water depths of less than 0.5 m, the elevation–time plot of 14C dates from these units can be used to reconstruct a very closely constrained lake-level curve. The data indicate that water levels have risen at an average rate of 0.25 cm/a over the last 3300 years as a result of differential, isostatic rebound. Superimposed on this trend are water-level oscillations with amplitudes on the order of 1 m and periods of several hundred years. These oscillations are synchronous and in phase with water-level fluctuations in Lake Michigan, and with a variety of other climatic variations in North America and Europe. We propose, therefore, that the water-level oscillations are a result of long-term, climatically produced variations in precipitation in the Great Lakes drainage basin.

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