scholarly journals An Integrated Neural Network and SEIR Model to Predict COVID-19

Algorithms ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 94
Author(s):  
Sharif Noor Zisad ◽  
Mohammad Shahadat Hossain ◽  
Mohammed Sazzad Hossain ◽  
Karl Andersson
Keyword(s):  
Integrated Model ◽  
Reproduction Rate ◽  
Large Contribution ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Basic Reproduction Rate ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
The World ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

A novel coronavirus (COVID-19), which has become a great concern for the world, was identified first in Wuhan city in China. The rapid spread throughout the world was accompanied by an alarming number of infected patients and increasing number of deaths gradually. If the number of infected cases can be predicted in advance, it would have a large contribution to controlling this pandemic in any area. Therefore, this study introduces an integrated model for predicting the number of confirmed cases from the perspective of Bangladesh. Moreover, the number of quarantined patients and the change in basic reproduction rate (the R0-value) can also be evaluated using this model. This integrated model combines the SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Removed) epidemiological model and neural networks. The model was trained using available data from 250 days. The accuracy of the prediction of confirmed cases is almost between 90% and 99%. The performance of this integrated model was evaluated by showing the difference in accuracy between the integrated model and the general SEIR model. The result shows that the integrated model is more accurate than the general SEIR model while predicting the number of confirmed cases in Bangladesh.

Treatment Options in COVID-19: The Role of Bioavailable Antiviral Ribonucleoside Analog on NHC in vitro

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lara Bittmann
Keyword(s):  
World Health Organization ◽  
Clinical Picture ◽  
Treatment Options ◽  
World Health ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

On December 31, 2019, WHO was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan City, China. A novel coronavirus was identified as the cause by Chinese authorities on January 7, 2020 and was provisionally named "2019-nCoV". This new Coronavirus causes a clinical picture which has received now the name COVID-19. The virus has spread subsequently worldwide and was explained on the 11th of March, 2020 by the World Health Organization to the pandemic.

scholarly journals INDEPENDENT ASSOCIATION OF METEOROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH INITIAL SPREAD OF COVID-19 IN INDIA

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hemant Kulkarni ◽  
Harshwardhan Vinod Khandait ◽  
Uday Wasudeorao Narlawar ◽  
Pragati G Rathod ◽  
Manju Mamtani
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Reproduction Rate ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Total N ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Basic Reproduction Rate ◽  
Independent Association ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Whether weather plays a part in the transmissibility of the novel COronaVIrus Disease-19 (COVID-19) is still not established. We tested the hypothesis that meteorological factors (air temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, wind speed and rainfall) are independently associated with transmissibility of COVID-19 quantified using the basic reproduction rate (R0). We used publicly available datasets on daily COVID-19 case counts (total n = 108,308), three-hourly meteorological data and community mobility data over a three-month period. Estimated R0 varied between 1.15-1.28. Mean daily air temperature (inversely) and wind speed (positively) were significantly associated with time dependent R0, but the contribution of countrywide lockdown to variability in R0 was over three times stronger as compared to that of temperature and wind speed combined. Thus, abating temperatures and easing lockdown may concur with increased transmissibility of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Early epidemiological assessment of the transmission potential and virulence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan City: China, January-February, 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenji Mizumoto ◽  
Katsushi Kagaya ◽  
Gerardo Chowell
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Public Health Intervention ◽  
Ecological Modelling ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Epidemiological Parameters

AbstractBackgroundSince the first cluster of cases was identified in Wuhan City, China, in December, 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rapidly spread around the world. Despite the scarcity of publicly available data, scientists around the world have made strides in estimating the magnitude of the epidemic, the basic reproduction number, and transmission patterns. Accumulating evidence suggests that a substantial fraction of the infected individuals with the novel coronavirus show little if any symptoms, which highlights the need to reassess the transmission potential of this emerging disease. In this study, we derive estimates of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China, by reconstructing the underlying transmission dynamics using multiple data sources.MethodsWe employ statistical methods and publicly available epidemiological datasets to jointly derive estimates of transmissibility and severity associated with the novel coronavirus. For this purpose, the daily series of laboratory–confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in Wuhan City together with epidemiological data of Japanese repatriated from Wuhan City on board government–chartered flights were integrated into our analysis.ResultsOur posterior estimates of basic reproduction number (R) in Wuhan City, China in 2019–2020 reached values at 3.49 (95%CrI: 3.39–3.62) with a mean serial interval of 6.0 days, and the enhanced public health intervention after January 23rd in 2020 was associated with a significantly reduced R at 0.84 (95%CrI: 0.81–0.88), with the total number of infections (i.e. cumulative infections) estimated at 1906634 (95%CrI: 1373500–2651124) in Wuhan City, elevating the overall proportion of infected individuals to 19.1% (95%CrI: 13.5–26.6%). We also estimated the most recent crude infection fatality ratio (IFR) and time–delay adjusted IFR at 0.04% (95% CrI: 0.03%–0.06%) and 0.12% (95%CrI: 0.08–0.17%), respectively, estimates that are several orders of magnitude smaller than the crude CFR estimated at 4.06%ConclusionsWe have estimated key epidemiological parameters of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China during January-February, 2020 using an ecological modelling approach. The power of this approach lies in the ability to infer epidemiological parameters with quantified uncertainty from partial observations collected by surveillance systems.

scholarly journals Wellness Constraints Among International University Students Transitioning Through Covid 19

2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (3) ◽  
pp. 3444-3456
Author(s):  
Mr J Dorasamy, Et. al.
Keyword(s):  
World Health Organization ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
World Health ◽  
Social Emotional ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
The World ◽  
International University ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

The World Health Organization (Who) In March 2020 Declared Covid 19 A Pandemic, Due To The  Global And Rapid Spread Of A Novel Coronavirus (Who, 2020). The Covid 19 Pandemic Being Highly Infectious And Unpredictable, Has  Disrupted  Social, Economic, Environmental And Political Spheres Of Life. Globally, People Have Ventured Into A “Lockdown World”, Increasing Uncertainty About Their Future Amidst The Covid 19 Pandemic. As A Result Of The Pandemic, Social Alteration Has Taken The Form Of Social Distancing, Self-Isolation And Self-Quarantine.  Many Were Unprepared For The Shift From The “Normal”, Propelling  Undue  Stress Under The New Normal Way Of Doing Things During The Current Global Pandemic Crisis. This Has Been Accompanied By Social, Emotional And Mental Effects, As The Ongoing And Fluid Nature Of The Pandemic Has Created Uncertainty For Many People. The Covid 19 Pandemic, As A Multidimensional Stressor Affecting Wellbeing, Has Affected Individuals, Families, Educational, Occupational, And Broader Societal Systems.  

scholarly journals Molecular Docking Study of the Potential Relevance of the Natural Compounds Isoflavone and Myricetin to COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 271-282
Author(s):  
Didik Priyandoko ◽  
◽  
Wahyu Widowati ◽  
Mawar Subangkit ◽  
Diana Jasaputra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Molecular Docking ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Active Sites ◽  
Docking Study ◽  
Binding Mode ◽  
Molecular Docking Study ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Proteins Interactions

The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) or severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread rapidly from its origin in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, to the rest of the world. The efficacy of herbal treatment in the control of contagious disease was demonstrated during the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Natural compound used for this study were isoflavone and myricetin. Molecular docking was performed to analyze binding mode of the compounds towards 12 proteins related to COVID-19. The prediction shows that isoflavone and myricetin have moderate probability of antiviral activity. All of the docked compounds occupied the active sites of the proteins related to COVID-19. Based on QSAR and molecular docking, interactions were predicted with 10 out of 12 potential COVID-19 proteins for myricetin and with 9 out of 12 proteins interactions for isoflavone. A potential disease alleviating action is suggested for isoflavone and myricetin in the context of COVID-19 infection.

scholarly journals Oral aspects related to SARS-CoV-2

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-160
Author(s):  
Akram Belmehdi ◽  
Saliha Chbicheb
Keyword(s):  
Oral Cavity ◽  
Diagnostic Value ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
The World ◽  
Spanish Flu ◽  
Taste Disorders ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Relationship

The pandemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is considered as the biggest global health crisis for the world since the Spanish flu, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic. Driven by the SARS-CoV-2 novel coronavirus infection, the rapid spread of this disease and the related pneumonia COVID-19 are a challenge for healthcare systems in over the world, and it is a constantly evolving situation with new symptoms and prognostic factors. SARS-CoV-2 has lately been detected in infected patient’s oral cavity; the COVID-19 outbreak is an alert that all dental and other health professionals must be vigilant in defending against the infectious disease spread. This review summarizes an update from current medical literature about the relationship between oral cavity and coronavirus disease by presenting some oral aspects which was detected in infected patients such as the oral lesions related to this virus and its therapeutic protocol, taste disorders and also the diagnostic value of saliva for SARS-CoV-2.

COVID-19: Pakistan’s Preparedness and response

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. e207
Author(s):  
Sahrish Khan ◽  
Atiq ur Rahman ◽  
Muhammad Imran
Keyword(s):  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Awareness Campaign ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

At the end of December 2019 in the Wuhan City of China, a novel coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak has been proclaimed. Several cases have arisen in other cities of China. It spread simultaneously worldwide in 209 countries of Europe, Australia, America, Asia, and Pakistan. Mortality is high; millions of people have been affected while cases are rapidly increasing in the world. Different controlling strategies have been adopted for COVID-19. Pakistan took rigorous measures like the hospital, specific laboratories for testing, centres for quarantine, awareness campaign, Ehsaas Emergency Cash Programme and lockdown for controlling this virus. There is no antiviral and vaccine based treatment only preventive measures are taken.

scholarly journals Viral and host factors related to the clinic outcome of the SARS-CoV-2 infection

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaonan Zhang ◽  
Yun Tan ◽  
Yun Ling ◽  
Gang Lu ◽  
Feng Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Host Factors ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Cell Counts ◽  
Disease Outcomes ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Differential Exposure ◽  
Critical Patients ◽  
Global Initiative ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
High Level

Abstract At least three months have been passed since the outbreak of the severe acute respiratory disease, COVID-19 in Wuhan city, China in December 2019, caused by the infection of a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2.1,2. Due to its rapid spread throughout China and abroad, knowledge sharing for both its epidemiology and clinic manifestations is urgently need. Here we analyzed the clinical, molecular and immunological data from 326 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Shanghai. Genomic sequences assembled from 112 quality samples together with uploaded sequences in Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) showed a stable evolution and suggested two major lineages with differential exposure history during the earliest outbreak in Wuhan. Nevertheless, they exhibited similar virulence and clinical outcomes. Lymphocytopenia, especially the reduced CD4+ and CD8+ T cell counts upon admission, was predictive of disease progression. High level of IL-6 and IL-8 during treatment was observed in severe and critical patients and correlated with decreased lymphocyte count. The determinants of disease severity seemed to stem mostly from host factors such age, lymphocytopenia and its associated cytokine storm whereas viral genetic variation did not significantly affect the outcomes. This comprehensive analysis on the molecular, immunological and clinical data provides a panorama of the key determinants related to the disease outcomes which should be helpful for improving the current combat against this extremely aggressive pandemic.Authors Xiaonan Zhang, Yun Tan, Yun Ling, Gang Lu, Feng Liu, and Zhigang Yi contributed equally to this work.

scholarly journals The effects of the clinical symptoms pneumonia-confirmation strategy of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanjin Wang ◽  
Pei Wang ◽  
Shudao Zhang ◽  
Hao Pan
Keyword(s):  
Turning Point ◽  
Clinical Symptoms ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Start Date ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract Motivated by the quick control in Wuhan, China, and the rapid spread in other countries of COVID-19, we investigate the questions that what is the turning point in Wuhan by quantifying the variety of basic reproductive number after the lockdown city. The answer may help the world to control the COVID-19 epidemic. A modified SEIR model is used to study the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan city. Our model is calibrated by the hospitalized cases. The modeling result gives out that the means of basic reproductive numbers are 1.5517 (95% CI 1.1716-4.4283) for the period from Jan 25 to Feb 11, 2020, and 0.4738(95% CI 0.0997-0.8370) for the period from Feb 12 to Mar 10. The transmission rate fell after Feb 12, 2020 as a result of China’s COVID-19 strategy of keeping society distance and the medical support from all China, but principally because of the clinical symptoms to be used for the novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) confirmation in Wuhan since Feb 12, 2020. Clinical diagnosis can quicken up NCP-confirmation such that the COVID-19 patients can be isolated without delay. So the clinical symptoms pneumonia-confirmation is the turning point of the COVID-19 battle of Wuhan. The measure of clinical symptoms pneumonia-confirmation in Wuhan has delayed the growth and reduced size of the COVID-19 epidemic, decreased the peak number of the hospitalized cases by 96% in Wuhan. Our modeling also indicates that the earliest start date of COVID-19 in Wuhan may be Nov 2, 2019.

scholarly journals Homology Models of the Papain-Like Protease PLpro from Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Stoermer
Keyword(s):  
Viral Genome ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
World Health ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
3Cl Protease ◽  
Bat Coronavirus ◽  
Homology Models

The December 2019 outbreak of pneumonia in Wuhan, Hubei Province of China was rapidly linked to a novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV. The rapid spread and severity of the virus has led the World Health Organization to declare it a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. We recently described the first homology models of the main 3CL protease from 2019-nCoV, and now present models of the other viral protease, the papain-like protease or PLpro. Whilst the overall viral genome is most closely associated with bat coronaviruses, no bat PLpro crystal structures are known. Wuhan 2019-nCoV PLpro is most closely related to a bat coronavirus PLpro (97% identity), then SARS (80 %) and MERS (29%) and the most promising models presented here are prepared from SARS crystal structure templates.

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