scholarly journals Quantitative Risk Assessment for Deep Tunnel Failure Based on Normal Cloud Model: A Case Study at the ASHELE Copper Mine, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 5208
Author(s):  
Jianpo Liu ◽  
Hongxu Shi ◽  
Ren Wang ◽  
Yingtao Si ◽  
Dengcheng Wei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Geological Condition ◽  
Deep Tunnel ◽  
Entropy Weight ◽  
Copper Mine ◽  
Evaluation Indexes ◽  
Metal Mines

The spatial and temporal distribution of tunnel failure is very complex due to geologic heterogeneity and variability in both mining processes and tunnel arrangement in deep metal mines. In this paper, the quantitative risk assessment for deep tunnel failure was performed using a normal cloud model at the Ashele copper mine, China. This was completed by considering the evaluation indexes of geological condition, mining process, and microseismic data. A weighted distribution of evaluation indexes was determined by implementation of an entropy weight method to reveal the primary parameters controlling tunnel failure. Additionally, the damage levels of the tunnel were quantitatively assigned by computing the degree of membership that different damage levels had, based on the expectation normalization method. The methods of maximum membership principle, comprehensive evaluation value, and fuzzy entropy were considered to determine the tunnel damage levels and risk of occurrence. The application of this method at the Ashele copper mine demonstrates that it meets the requirement of risk assessment for deep tunnel failure and can provide a basis for large-scale regional tunnel failure control in deep metal mines.

Human-Water Relationship Evaluation Based on Cloud Model for Arid Area in Northwest China

2014 ◽  
Vol 1065-1069 ◽  
pp. 2942-2947
Author(s):  
Mei Wang ◽  
De Shan Tang ◽  
Wei Shan Hu ◽  
Yi Fan Bai
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Water System ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Arid Area ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Evaluation Index ◽  
Entropy Weight ◽  
Evaluation Indexes ◽  
Entropy Weight Method

Human-water relationship evaluation method based on cloud model is put forward to cope with the vagueness in evaluation language. With the intensive study of the specialty in human-water relationship in Northwest China arid area, three dimensions related to human-water relationship, natural water cycle’s health degree (NWHD), Social water cycle’s rationality degree (SWRD) and human-to-water fitness degree (HWFD) are selected to describe the harmony degree between water system and human system. The limit of evaluation index subordinate to each dimension corresponding to every harmony level is determined, and thus we can generate a comprehensive cloud model with evaluation index harmony level. When numeric values substitute for basic evaluation indexes, combined with the weights calculated from entropy weight method and AHP method, we get the certainty distributions of dimension indexes and integration objects among each harmony level. Case shows that human-water relationship evaluation method based on cloud model can effectively solve the vagueness and uncertainty in evaluation language. The evaluation results reflect the harmony degree in Northwest China arid area precisely.

scholarly journals The Risk Assessment of Debris Flow Hazards in Banshanmen Gully Based on the Entropy Weight-Normal Cloud Method

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
X. B. Gu ◽  
S. T. Wu ◽  
X. J. Ji ◽  
Y. H. Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Debris Flow ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Entropy Weight ◽  
Entropy Weight Method ◽  
Weight Method ◽  
Index Weight

The debris flow is one of the geological hazards; its occurrence is complex, fuzzy, and random. And it is affected by many indices; a new multi-index assessment method is proposed to analyze the risk level of debris flow based on the entropy weight-normal cloud model in Banshanmen gully. The index weight is calculated by using the entropy weight method. Then, the certainty degree of each index belonging to the corresponding cloud is obtained by using the cloud model. The final risk level of debris flow is determined according to the synthetic certainty degree. The conclusions are drawn that the method is feasible and accurate rate of risk estimation for debris flow is very high, so a new method and thoughts for the risk assessment of debris flow can be provided in the future.

scholarly journals A Critical Review of the Equivalent Stoichiometric Cloud Model Q9 in Gas Explosion Modelling

Eng ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 156-180
Author(s):  
Vincent Tam ◽  
Felicia Tan ◽  
Chris Savvides
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Gas Explosion ◽  
Full Account ◽  
Evaluation Protocol ◽  
Explosion Risk

Q9 is widely used in industries handling flammable fluids and is central to explosion risk assessment (ERA). Q9 transforms complex flammable clouds from pressurised releases to simple cuboids with uniform stoichiometric concentration, drastically reducing the time and resources needed by ERAs. Q9 is commonly believed in the industry to be conservative but two studies on Q9 gave conflicting conclusions. This efficacy issue is important as impacts of Q9 have real life consequences, such as inadequate engineering design and risk management, risk underestimation, etc. This paper reviews published data and described additional assessment on Q9 using the large-scale experimental dataset from Blast and Fire for Topside Structure joint industry (BFTSS) Phase 3B project which was designed to address this type of scenario. The results in this paper showed that Q9 systematically underpredicts this dataset. Following recognised model evaluation protocol would have avoided confusion and misinterpretation in previous studies. It is recommended that the modelling concept of Equivalent Stoichiometric Cloud behind Q9 should be put on a sound scientific footing. Meanwhile, Q9 should be used with caution; users should take full account of its bias and variance.

scholarly journals Research on Measurement and Application of China’s Regional Logistics Development Level under Low Carbon Environment

Processes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 2273
Author(s):  
Zixue Guo ◽  
Yu Tian ◽  
Xinmei Guo ◽  
Zefang He
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Model ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Numerical Characteristic ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Entropy Weight ◽  
Logistics Industry ◽  
Evaluation Indexes ◽  
Regional Logistics ◽  
Entropy Weight Method

To solve the problem of fuzziness and randomness in regional logistics decarbonization evaluation and accurately assess regional logistics decarbonization development, an evaluation model of regional logistics decarbonization development is established. First, the evaluation index of regional logistics decarbonization development is constructed from three dimensions: low-carbon logistics environment support, low-carbon logistics strength and low-carbon logistics potential. Second, the evaluation indexes are used as cloud model variables, and the cloud numerical characteristic values and cloud affiliation degrees are determined according to the cloud model theory. The entropy weight method is used to determine the index weights, and the comprehensive determination degree of the research object affiliated to the logistics decarbonization level is calculated comprehensively. Finally, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is used as an example for empirical evidence, analyzing the development logistics decarbonization and its and temporal variability in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei provinces and cities. The results of the study show that the development logistics decarbonization in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province has been improved to different degrees during 2013–2019, but the development is uneven. Developing to 2019, the three provinces and cities of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei still have significant differences in terms of economic environment, logistics industry scale, logistics industry inputs and outputs, and technical support.

scholarly journals Set pair analysis for karst waterlogging risk assessment based on AHP and entropy weight

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 1143-1155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiajun Zeng ◽  
Guoru Huang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Set Pair Analysis ◽  
Entropy Weight ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Evaluation Indexes ◽  
Indexing System ◽  
Disaster Assessment ◽  
Pair Analysis

Abstract Karst waterlogging is a natural disaster that occurs frequently and it adversely affects the social and economic development of affected areas. An analysis of the causes of karst waterlogging with respect to climate and topography can serve as a foundation for disaster assessment and prevention. In this study, a karst waterlogging risk assessment indexing system was established. The system was based on a comprehensive analysis of risk factors, including the severity of the disaster and the vulnerability of the affected area. DeBao County in GuangXi was used as the study area. Nine risk indicators were chosen as evaluation indexes and combination weights were divided into subjective and objective weights based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy weight. A geographical information system (GIS) was applied to help with the calculations of the set pair analysis (SPA) and to pile up the layers of the evaluation indicators. Then, a risk rating map was drawn using GIS techniques. The results showed that the high risk locations were mainly distributed in the center of DeBao County; therefore, the map could be used as reference for the prevention and management of karst waterlogging risk.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of the Large-Scale Hydrogen Storage in Salt Caverns

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (10) ◽  
pp. 2856
Author(s):  
Maria Portarapillo ◽  
Almerinda Di Benedetto
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Hydrogen Storage ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
High Energy ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Low Leakage ◽  
Riser Pipe ◽  
Salt Caverns

Salt caverns are accepted as an ideal solution for high-pressure hydrogen storage. As well as considering the numerous benefits of the realization of underground hydrogen storage (UHS), such as high energy densities, low leakage rates and big storage volumes, risk analysis of UHS is a required step for assessing the suitability of this technology. In this work, a preliminary quantitative risk assessment (QRA) was performed by starting from the worst-case scenario: rupture at the ground of the riser pipe from the salt cavern to the ground. The influence of hydrogen contamination by bacterial metabolism was studied, considering the composition of the gas contained in the salt caverns as time variable. A bow-tie analysis was used to highlight all the possible causes (basic events) as well as the outcomes (jet fire, unconfined vapor cloud explosion (UVCE), toxic chemical release), and then, consequence and risk analyses were performed. The results showed that a UVCE is the most frequent outcome, but its effect zone decreases with time due to the hydrogen contamination and the higher contents of methane and hydrogen sulfide.

Holistic geoethical slope portfolio risk assessment

2020 ◽  
pp. SP508-2019-157
Author(s):  
Franco Oboni ◽  
César Henri Oboni
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Ethical Issues ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Portfolio Risk ◽  
The Public ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Global Impacts ◽  
Environment And Development

AbstractLandslides of natural and man-made slopes represent hazardous geomorphological processes that contribute to highly variable risks. Their consequences generally include loss of life and infrastructural, environmental and cultural assets damage.Prioritizing and mitigating slope risks in a sustainable manner, while considering climate change, is related to geoethics, as any misallocation of resources will likely lead to increased risk to the public.Until recently there was little recognition of the causes and global impacts of human actions. Today, threat-denying humans can be identified as acting inappropriately and ultimately unethically. Sustainable risk management and ethical issues should be discussed simultaneously to avoid the ‘discipline silo trap’ and hazardous omissions.This contribution discusses slope risk management at various scales, i.e. how to ensure better allotment of mitigative funds while complying with sustainability goals and geoethical requirements. In 1987, the World Commission on Environment and Development published a report (also known as the Brundtland Report (Brundtland 1987. World Commission on Environment and Development Report)) that defined sustainable development as meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.The three case histories discussed in this contribution show how sustainability and ethics can be fostered by using rational, repeatable, transparent quantitative risk assessment applicable at the local scale as well as on a large scale.

scholarly journals Risk assessment of floodwater resources utilization in water transfer projects based on an improved cloud model

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 2517-2532 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianfeng Huang ◽  
Wanyu Li ◽  
Yingqin Chen ◽  
Guohua Fang ◽  
Wei Yan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Projection Pursuit ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Water Transfer ◽  
Water Diversion ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Membership Degree ◽  
Entropy Weight

Abstract The utilization of floodwater resources will produce benefits, but it will also pose risks; therefore, it is necessary to strengthen knowledge regarding risk assessment to minimize negative effects. In the present study, the risk factors for the utilization of floodwater resources in water diversion projects were identified, the index system was constructed, and the fuzziness and randomness of the risk were considered. Assessment was performed with respect to the following three projects: water storage, water conveyance, and water pumping. The specific methods to improve the cloud model are as follows: analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to calculate subjective weights, entropy weight method and projection pursuit method are used to calculate objective weights, X-conditional cloud is used to calculate index membership degree, and finally combination weight and membership degree are combined to obtain the risk level of flood resource utilization. The above methodology was applied to the risk assessment of floodwater resources utilization in the Jiangsu Province of the East Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project. The risk of floodwater resources utilization in high-flow, normal-flow, and low-flow years was evaluated, and the validity and applicability of the assessment method were verified.

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