scholarly journals ALARP Criteria to Estimate Acceptability and Tolerability Thresholds of the Investment Risk

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (19) ◽  
pp. 9086
Author(s):  
Gabriella Maselli ◽  
Maria Macchiaroli ◽  
Antonio Nesticò
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Threshold Values ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Limit Values ◽  
Innovative Methodology ◽  
Company Sector ◽  
First Time

Assessing the riskiness of investments in civil works is an integral part of the decision-making process. The main limitation is the absence, both in the regulatory landscape and in the literature of the sector, of threshold values that can guide the analyst in expressing an assessment on the acceptance of the investment risk. The aim of the paper is to define a risk management model that overcomes this gap by introducing acceptability and tolerability thresholds for project risk. The idea is to jointly use: (i) the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) logic, from which the concepts threshold of acceptability and tolerability of risk derive, for the first time applied to assess the project risk in the civil field; (ii) the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and statistical methods to define an innovative methodology for estimating the aforementioned threshold values. According to the proposed approach, these risk limit values can be specified according to both the investment sector and the socio-economic context of the project. The implementation of the methodology in the civil company sector in Europe allows to validate the described model. The elaborations show that the financial performance of the project is widely acceptable if the Expected Internal Rate of Return is greater than 7.8%; unacceptable if the expected rate of return is less than 5.6%; and tolerable as an ALARP if the expected rate is between 5.6% and 7.8%. The estimated acceptability and tolerability thresholds can provide the economic operator with a more immediate and consistent evaluation of the triangular balance of risks, costs, and benefits. This allows the decision-making process to become more rational and transparent.

THE EVALUATION OF AN ORE DEPOSIT DEVELOPMENT PROSPECT THROUGH APPLICATION OF THE "GAMES AGAINST NATURE" APPROACH

2013 ◽  
Vol 30 (06) ◽  
pp. 1350029 ◽  
Author(s):  
MARIUSZ KRZAK
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Mineral Deposit ◽  
Ore Deposits ◽  
Supplementary Information ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Final Decision ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Economic Market ◽  
Ore Deposit ◽  
Mining Projects

Geological-mining projects are usually associated with relatively high risk and uncertainty in many aspects, including geological, mining, ecologic, economic, market, legal and social conditions. A mineral deposit is an underground natural resource and hence it is difficult to unequivocally predict the actual results of its discovery. Depending on the extent of the resource, the operation of the mine can extend to a few decades. It is necessary to conduct investment actions in successive stages and to evaluate the results of the work stage by stage. This reduces the investment risk and facilitates the decision-making process. In this paper, the use of a specific kind of game, the so-called "game against Nature," is suggested before a final decision on deposit development is made. This methodology was tested on the example of one of the zinc-lead ore deposits in the Silesia-Cracow region. Apart from supporting the decision-making process, this methodology offers the means to evaluate further research and costs which may be incurred for obtaining supplementary information related to the ore deposit parameters, specifically its reserves.

scholarly journals Women and the Family in Lebanon: Figures and Facts

1970 ◽  
pp. 9-10
Author(s):  
Hassan Hammoud
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Development Program ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
United Nations Development Program ◽  
Occupational Characteristics ◽  
The Family ◽  
The Status ◽  
Post War ◽  
First Time ◽  
Nations Development

In collaboration with the United Nations Development Program, the Lebanese Ministry of Social Affairs has completed a survey ' that provides for the first time in 65 years a comprehensive profile of the population in post-war Lebanon. One of its several objectives was to identify the demographic, educational, social, and occupational characteristics of Lebanese society. If properly considered, such information could play a major role in the decision-making process over several public policies in the country. The data of the survey are presented in 187 statistical tables . I will analyse selected tables related to the status and characteristics of women and the family.

Using threshold values for cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained in healthcare decisions

2011 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irina Cleemput ◽  
Mattias Neyt ◽  
Nancy Thiry ◽  
Chris De Laet ◽  
Mark Leys
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Healthcare Systems ◽  
Quality Adjusted Life Year ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Threshold Values ◽  
Social Security Systems ◽  
Policy Makers

Background: In many countries, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) is used to assess whether an intervention is worth its costs. At the same time, policy makers often feel uncomfortable with refusing reimbursement of any intervention purely on the basis of the fact that the ICER exceeds a specific threshold value. Reluctance to define a single threshold value for the ICER seems to have been stronger in social security systems than in national healthcare services systems. This study explores how basic differences between healthcare systems impact upon the potential usefulness of an ICER threshold value.Methods: This study is a narrative review of literature about the theoretical foundations of the ICER threshold value approach and its practical relevance in different types of healthcare systems.Results: A single ICER threshold value cannot be maintained, defined, or measured and should not be used as a policy-making tool. None of the solutions presented up until now to make the ICER threshold approach a valuable policy-making tool overcome the important weaknesses of the approach.Conclusions: ICERs and ICER threshold values are insufficient for assessing interventions' value for money. Rather, they should be considered as one element in the decision-making process. Complete rationalization of the decision-making process by means of quantitative decision criteria is undesirable and not feasible. Increasing transparency in the criteria used for a decision and explicitness about the relative importance of each criterion should, therefore, be the major goal.

Ainu Landowners’ Struggle for Justice and the Illegitimacy of the Nibutani Dam Project in Hokkaido Japan

2012 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroshi Maruyama
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Indigenous People ◽  
Legal System ◽  
Public Works ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Japanese History ◽  
Fait Accompli ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
The Right ◽  
First Time

Abstract In 2008 the Ainu were officially recognized as an indigenous people by the Japanese Government. The recognition arose from the 1997 court’s decision on the Nibutani Dam case which concluded, for the first time in Japanese history, that the Ainu people have the right to enjoy their own culture and that they fit the definition of indigenous people. The plaintiffs were Ainu landowners from the Nibutani Community who claimed the revocation of the expropriation decision. However, the Nibutani Dam was completed before the court’s decision, with the court acknowledging the completion as fait accompli on the grounds that the revocation of the expropriation decision would not be in the public’s interest. This article reveals the flawed legal system in the decision making process for public works as well as a brief history and some cultural background of the Ainu through those plaintiffs’ struggle for justice. Further, the illegitimacy of the Nibutani Dam project is discussed in light of publicness based on the complaint of those plaintiffs, and lastly, publicness of public works is explored in the context of studies on publicness in Japan.

Verfassungsgerichtliche Entscheidungsfindung und ihre Folgen

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Abad Andrade
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Theoretical Models ◽  
Case Law ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
Institutional Autonomy ◽  
Constitutional Courts ◽  
Law And Politics ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
First Time

How do constitutional courts decide and how do institutional factors affect decision-making processes and their outcomes? This book answers these questions—in a way that is relevant for law and politics—in two steps. In the first place, it develops possible theoretical models of constitutional courts’ decision-making. Thereafter, they are applied to the politically significant Turkish Constitutional Court (1962–2012) for the first time. Using interviews with former judges and analyses of court rulings, the author proposes that ‘unfavourable coupling’ takes place at the Turkish Constitutional Court in the form of a decision-making logic that follows majority principles combined with a process that requires a willingness to compromise and seek consensus for the court to function appropriately. This coupling affects the court’s decision-making process, its case law and, indirectly, even its ability to gain institutional autonomy and authority.

scholarly journals A combined compromise solution (CoCoSo) method for multi-criteria decision-making problems

2019 ◽  
Vol 57 (9) ◽  
pp. 2501-2519 ◽  
Author(s):  
Morteza Yazdani ◽  
Pascale Zarate ◽  
Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas ◽  
Zenonas Turskis
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Distance Measure ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
High Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multiplication Rule ◽  
Grey Relational Coefficient ◽  
Grey Relational ◽  
First Time

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to discuss the advantage of a combinatory methodology presented in this study. The paper suggests that the comparison with results of previously developed methods is in high agreement.Design/methodology/approachThis paper introduces a combined compromise decision-making algorithm with the aid of some aggregation strategies. The authors have considered a distance measure, which originates from grey relational coefficient and targets to enhance the flexibility of the results. Hence, the weight of the alternatives is placed in the decision-making process with three equations. In the final stage, an aggregated multiplication rule is employed to release the ranking of the alternatives and end the decision process.FindingsThe authors described a real case of choosing logistics and transportation companies in France from a supply chain project. Some comparisons such as sensitivity analysis approach and comparing to other studies and methods provided to validate the performance of the proposed algorithm.Originality/valueThe algorithm has a unique structure among MCDM methods which is presented for the first time in this paper.

scholarly journals PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN, SIKAP DAN KEPUASAN KONSUMEN TERHADAP PAKET NASI LIWET DI RMSASA BANDAR LAMPUNG

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 325
Author(s):  
Erin Apriani ◽  
Yaktiworo Indriani ◽  
Rabiatul Adawiyah
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Performance Analysis ◽  
Research Data ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Satisfaction Index ◽  
Side Dish ◽  
Attribute Model ◽  
First Time

The study aims to know the decision making, attitude, and satisfaction of consumers towards steam rice package at The Sambel Alu Sultan Agung (RMSASA) Restaurant. The attributes studied consisted of price, scent, taste, size, benefit, side dish variation, dish appearance, cleanliness, location, parking area, comfort and safety place. This research was conducted by survey method.  The respondents of this study consisted of 48 consumers who purchased liwet rice package for the first time. The research data was analyzed by description, Fishbein Multi-attribute Model, Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI,) and Importance Performance Analysis (IPA).  The results showed that the consumer's decision-making process of purchasing steam rice package was influenced by consumers' desire to try liwet rice package besides their hunger.  Sources of information obtained by consumers were mostly from people stories.  Alternatives chosen by consumers when the liwet rice package ran out was switching to another menu. The calculation of attitude of consumers showed that consumers like the liwet rice package with multi-atribute value of 182.06.  The highest score of attitude was taste, followed by cleanliness, comfort and safety place.  The results of CSI analysis showed that consumers were satisfied with the liwet rice package with CSI value of 77.54.  Meanwhile, based on IPA analysis, the attributes laid in quadrant I were aroma and location; quadrant II were cleanliness, taste, comfort and safety place; quadrant III were parking areas, price, size, and benefit; and quadrant IV were menu variation and dish appearance. Key words: attitude, CSI, IPA, steam rice, the decision making

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