scholarly journals Lagrangian Data Assimilation for Improving Model Estimates of Velocity Fields and Residual Currents in a Tidal Estuary

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (22) ◽  
pp. 11006
Author(s):  
Neda Mardani ◽  
Mohammadreza Khanarmuei ◽  
Kabir Suara ◽  
Richard Brown ◽  
Adrian McCallum ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Hydrodynamic Model ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Velocity Fields ◽  
Moving Frame ◽  
Residual Currents ◽  
Lagrangian Data ◽  
Flow Variables ◽  
Lagrangian Drifter

Numerical models are associated with uncertainties that can be reduced through data assimilation (DA). Lower costs have driven a recent tendency to use Lagrangian instruments such as drifters and floats to obtain information about water bodies. However, difficulties emerge in their assimilation, since Lagrangian data are set out in a moving frame of reference and are not compatible with the fixed grid locations used in models to predict flow variables. We applied a pseudo-Lagrangian approach using OpenDA, an open-source DA tool to assimilate Lagrangian drifter data into an estuarine hydrodynamic model. Despite inherent challenges with using drifter datasets, the work showed that low-cost, low-resolution drifters can provide a relatively higher improvement over the Eulerian dataset due to the larger area coverage of the drifter. We showed that the assimilation of Lagrangian data obtained from GPS-tracked drifters in a tidal channel for a few hours can significantly improve modelled velocity fields (up to 30% herein). A 40% improvement in residual current direction was obtained when assimilating both Lagrangian and Eulerian data. We conclude that the best results are achieved when both Lagrangian and Eulerian datasets are assimilated into the hydrodynamic model.

scholarly journals Improving the Accuracy of Hydrodynamic Model Predictions Using Lagrangian Calibration

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 575 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neda Mardani ◽  
Kabir Suara ◽  
Helen Fairweather ◽  
Richard Brown ◽  
Adrian McCallum ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hydrodynamic Model ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Hydrodynamic Models ◽  
Lagrangian Drifters ◽  
Lagrangian Velocity ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Lagrangian Data ◽  
Lagrangian Drifter ◽  
Recent Attention

While significant studies have been conducted in Intermittently Closed and Open Lakes and Lagoons (ICOLLs), very few have employed Lagrangian drifters. With recent attention on the use of GPS-tracked Lagrangian drifters to study the hydrodynamics of estuaries, there is a need to assess the potential for calibrating models using Lagrangian drifter data. Here, we calibrated and validated a hydrodynamic model in Currimundi Lake, Australia using both Eulerian and Lagrangian velocity field measurements in an open entrance condition. The results showed that there was a higher level of correlation (R2 = 0.94) between model output and observed velocity data for the Eulerian calibration compared to that of Lagrangian calibration (R2 = 0.56). This lack of correlation between model and Lagrangian data is a result of apparent difficulties in the use of Lagrangian data in Eulerian (fixed-mesh) hydrodynamic models. Furthermore, Eulerian and Lagrangian devices systematically observe different spatio-temporal scales in the flow with larger variability in the Lagrangian data. Despite these, the results show that Lagrangian calibration resulted in optimum Manning coefficients (n = 0.023) equivalent to those observed through Eulerian calibration. Therefore, Lagrangian data has the potential to be used in hydrodynamic model calibration in such aquatic systems.

scholarly journals Model parameter estimation using coherent structure colouring

2018 ◽  
Vol 861 ◽  
pp. 886-900 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristy L. Schlueter-Kuck ◽  
John O. Dabiri
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Coherent Structure ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Spatial Uncertainty ◽  
Chaotic Advection ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Model Parameter ◽  
Lagrangian Data

Lagrangian data assimilation is a complex problem in oceanic and atmospheric modelling. Tracking drifters in large-scale geophysical flows can involve uncertainty in drifter location, complex inertial effects and other factors which make comparing them to simulated Lagrangian trajectories from numerical models extremely challenging. Temporal and spatial discretisation, factors necessary in modelling large scale flows, also contribute to separation between real and simulated drifter trajectories. The chaotic advection inherent in these turbulent flows tends to separate even closely spaced tracer particles, making error metrics based solely on drifter displacements unsuitable for estimating model parameters. We propose to instead use error in the coherent structure colouring (CSC) field to assess model skill. The CSC field provides a spatial representation of the underlying coherent patterns in the flow, and we show that it is a more robust metric for assessing model accuracy. Through the use of two test cases, one considering spatial uncertainty in particle initialisation, and one examining the influence of stochastic error along a trajectory and temporal discretisation, we show that error in the coherent structure colouring field can be used to accurately determine single or multiple simultaneously unknown model parameters, whereas a conventional error metric based on error in drifter displacement fails. Because the CSC field enhances the difference in error between correct and incorrect model parameters, error minima in model parameter sweeps become more distinct. The effectiveness and robustness of this method for single and multi-parameter estimation in analytical flows suggest that Lagrangian data assimilation for real oceanic and atmospheric models would benefit from a similar approach.

scholarly journals Urban Air Quality Modeling Using Low-Cost Sensor Network and Data Assimilation in the Aburrá Valley, Colombia

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 91
Author(s):  
Santiago Lopez-Restrepo ◽  
Andres Yarce ◽  
Nicolás Pinel ◽  
O.L. Quintero ◽  
Arjo Segers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Cost Model ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Monitoring Network ◽  
Correlation Factor ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
High Quality

The use of low air quality networks has been increasing in recent years to study urban pollution dynamics. Here we show the evaluation of the operational Aburrá Valley’s low-cost network against the official monitoring network. The results show that the PM2.5 low-cost measurements are very close to those observed by the official network. Additionally, the low-cost allows a higher spatial representation of the concentrations across the valley. We integrate low-cost observations with the chemical transport model Long Term Ozone Simulation-European Operational Smog (LOTOS-EUROS) using data assimilation. Two different configurations of the low-cost network were assimilated: using the whole low-cost network (255 sensors), and a high-quality selection using just the sensors with a correlation factor greater than 0.8 with respect to the official network (115 sensors). The official stations were also assimilated to compare the more dense low-cost network’s impact on the model performance. Both simulations assimilating the low-cost model outperform the model without assimilation and assimilating the official network. The capability to issue warnings for pollution events is also improved by assimilating the low-cost network with respect to the other simulations. Finally, the simulation using the high-quality configuration has lower error values than using the complete low-cost network, showing that it is essential to consider the quality and location and not just the total number of sensors. Our results suggest that with the current advance in low-cost sensors, it is possible to improve model performance with low-cost network data assimilation.

scholarly journals An Alternative Statistical Model for Predicting Salinity Variations in Estuaries

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (24) ◽  
pp. 10677
Author(s):  
Ronghui Ye ◽  
Jun Kong ◽  
Chengji Shen ◽  
Jinming Zhang ◽  
Weisheng Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Model ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
River Estuary ◽  
Pearl River Estuary ◽  
Large River ◽  
Physical Models ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Salinity Variations

Accurate salinity prediction can support the decision-making of water resources management to mitigate the threat of insufficient freshwater supply in densely populated estuaries. Statistical methods are low-cost and less time-consuming compared with numerical models and physical models for predicting estuarine salinity variations. This study proposes an alternative statistical model that can more accurately predict the salinity series in estuaries. The model incorporates an autoregressive model to characterize the memory effect of salinity and includes the changes in salinity driven by river discharge and tides. Furthermore, the Gamma distribution function was introduced to correct the hysteresis effects of river discharge, tides and salinity. Based on fixed corrections of long-term effects, dynamic corrections of short-term effects were added to weaken the hysteresis effects. Real-world model application to the Pearl River Estuary obtained satisfactory agreement between predicted and measured salinity peaks, indicating the accuracy of salinity forecasting. Cross-validation and weekly salinity prediction under small, medium and large river discharges were also conducted to further test the reliability of the model. The statistical model provides a good reference for predicting salinity variations in estuaries.

scholarly journals Multivariate Error Covariance Estimates by Monte Carlo Simulation for Assimilation Studies in the Pacific Ocean

2005 ◽  
Vol 133 (8) ◽  
pp. 2310-2334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Borovikov ◽  
Michele M. Rienecker ◽  
Christian L. Keppenne ◽  
Gregory C. Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Independent Set ◽  
Velocity Fields ◽  
Optimal Interpolation ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Error Statistics ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
Monte Carlo Techniques

Abstract One of the most difficult aspects of ocean-state estimation is the prescription of the model forecast error covariances. The paucity of ocean observations limits our ability to estimate the covariance structures from model–observation differences. In most practical applications, simple covariances are usually prescribed. Rarely are cross covariances between different model variables used. Here a comparison is made between a univariate optimal interpolation (UOI) scheme and a multivariate OI algorithm (MvOI) in the assimilation of ocean temperature profiles. In the UOI case only temperature is updated using a Gaussian covariance function. In the MvOI, salinity, zonal, and meridional velocities as well as temperature are updated using an empirically estimated multivariate covariance matrix. Earlier studies have shown that a univariate OI has a detrimental effect on the salinity and velocity fields of the model. Apparently, in a sequential framework it is important to analyze temperature and salinity together. For the MvOI an estimate of the forecast error statistics is made by Monte Carlo techniques from an ensemble of model forecasts. An important advantage of using an ensemble of ocean states is that it provides a natural way to estimate cross covariances between the fields of different physical variables constituting the model-state vector, at the same time incorporating the model’s dynamical and thermodynamical constraints as well as the effects of physical boundaries. Only temperature observations from the Tropical Atmosphere–Ocean array have been assimilated in this study. To investigate the efficacy of the multivariate scheme, two data assimilation experiments are validated with a large independent set of recently published subsurface observations of salinity, zonal velocity, and temperature. For reference, a control run with no data assimilation is used to check how the data assimilation affects systematic model errors. While the performance of the UOI and MvOI is similar with respect to the temperature field, the salinity and velocity fields are greatly improved when the multivariate correction is used, as is evident from the analyses of the rms differences between these fields and independent observations. The MvOI assimilation is found to improve upon the control run in generating water masses with properties close to the observed, while the UOI fails to maintain the temperature and salinity structure.

Ensemble-based data assimilation of volcanic aerosols using FALL3D+PDAF

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo Mingari ◽  
Andrew Prata ◽  
Federica Pardini
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Information Transfer ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Column Height ◽  
Eruption Column ◽  
Operational Environment ◽  
Assimilation System

<p>Modelling atmospheric dispersion and deposition of volcanic ash is becoming increasingly valuable for understanding the potential impacts of explosive volcanic eruptions on infrastructures, air quality and aviation. The generation of high-resolution forecasts depends on the accuracy and reliability of the input data for models. Uncertainties in key parameters such as eruption column height injection, physical properties of particles or meteorological fields, represent a major source of error in forecasting airborne volcanic ash. The availability of nearly real time geostationary satellite observations with high spatial and temporal resolutions provides the opportunity to improve forecasts in an operational context. Data assimilation (DA) is one of the most effective ways to reduce the error associated with the forecasts through the incorporation of available observations into numerical models. Here we present a new implementation of an ensemble-based data assimilation system based on the coupling between the FALL3D dispersal model and the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF). The implementation is based on the last version release of FALL3D (versions 8.x) tailored to the extreme-scale computing requirements, which has been redesigned and rewritten from scratch in the framework of the EU Center of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth (ChEESE). The proposed methodology can be efficiently implemented in an operational environment by exploiting high-performance computing (HPC) resources. The FALL3D+PDAF system can be run in parallel and supports online-coupled DA, which allows an efficient information transfer through parallel communication. Satellite-retrieved data from recent volcanic eruptions were considered as input observations for the assimilation system.</p>

scholarly journals REGIONAL NETWORK FOR COASTAL ENGINEERING DATA

1976 ◽  
Vol 1 (15) ◽  
pp. 5
Author(s):  
Richard J. Seymour ◽  
Meredith H. Sessions
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Models ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Data Gathering ◽  
Monitoring Network ◽  
Beach Erosion ◽  
Direct Result ◽  
Ocean Engineering ◽  
California Department ◽  
La Jolla

The California Department of Navigation and Ocean Development (DNOD), responsible for shoreline protection within the state, was particularly aware of the lack of coastal wave statistics to support their beach erosion program. As a direct result of the 1974 ASCE-sponsored New Orleans Conference on Ocean Wave Measurement and Analysis, discussion was initiated within DNOD and then with the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) at La Jolla, on the feasibility o"f establishing a regional wave monitoring network for California. The initial specification presented by DNOD was for a 200-station network reporting directional wave spectra twice daily for a period of ten years. SIO ocean engineering personnel responded with a system concept employing low-cost pressure transducers hardwired to shore with a dialup telephone data gathering link to a central station. The initial cost estimates appeared attractive when compared with Corps of Engineers experience as reported in Peacock (1974). As a result, a small program was funded in February 1975 at Scripps to demonstrate critical hardware items through the breadboard stage. With the successful completion of this work, additional funds were allocated by DNOD as matching funds for a California Sea Grant Project. Th_e first station in the network began operation on 3 December 1975 at Imperial Beach, California. A second station was added at Ocean Beach (San Diego) on 27 March 1976, a third at SIO (La Jolla) on 18 May 1976 and the fourth at Oceanside, California on 2 June 1976. The locations of these initial stations are shown in Figure 1. Considerable effort has been directed during the past 10 years toward the development of numerical models to predict deep-water wave conditions from meteorological data. Reasonable results have been obtained and sufficient accuracy achieved to allow routing of both commercial and military ship traffic.

scholarly journals Variational data assimilation with superparameterization

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 513-536 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Grooms ◽  
Y. Lee
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Variational Data Assimilation ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
New Applications ◽  
Lorenz 96

Abstract. Superparameterization (SP) is a multiscale computational approach wherein a large scale atmosphere or ocean model is coupled to an array of simulations of small scale dynamics on periodic domains embedded into the computational grid of the large scale model. SP has been successfully developed in global atmosphere and climate models, and is a promising approach for new applications. The authors develop a 3D-Var variational data assimilation framework for use with SP; the relatively low cost and simplicity of 3D-Var in comparison with ensemble approaches makes it a natural fit for relatively expensive multiscale SP models. To demonstrate the assimilation framework in a simple model, the authors develop a new system of ordinary differential equations similar to the two-scale Lorenz-'96 model. The system has one set of variables denoted {Yi}, with large and small scale parts, and the SP approximation to the system is straightforward. With the new assimilation framework the SP model approximates the large scale dynamics of the true system accurately.

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