Wildfires in Fennoscandia under changing climate and forest cover

In recent years, large forest fires in Fennoscandia have shown that wildfires can have a strong impact on society also in northern Europe. In the future, meteorological conditions are expected to become increasingly favorable for wildfires due to climate change. An important aspect in fire management are the national forest management strategies that play a crucial role in controlling e.g. fuel availability in forests, and further areal coverage of burned area. In addition, the effectiveness of rescue services is crucial. Thus, the development of fire risk prediction and fire detection systems, as well as, modeling of spread of fires and emissions of harmful ingredients, such as black carbon are urgently required to improve the societies preparedness to the increasing thread. In this presentation we synthetize the current state-of-the-art understanding of wildfires in Fennoscandia from a wide range of key perspectives: historical fire regimes, monitoring using in-situ and remote-sensing technologies, integrated modeling (e.g. climate models, spatial fire propagation models forced with operational weather forecast model) and fire suppression. In addition, we assess the amount of black carbon emissions released from recent wildfires in Fennoscandia. These results will help northern societies to tackle against the negative impacts of climate change and to support the development of efficient mitigation strategies. In the upcoming decades the effective management of wildfires is especially relevant, as wildfires greatly affect regional carbon budgets and mitigation efforts.&#160;

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A MODELING SYSTEM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT, MANAGEMENT AND HEDGING IN COASTAL AREAS

Proceedings of International Conference "Managinag risks to coastal regions and communities in a changinag world" (EMECS'11 - SeaCoasts XXVI) ◽

10.31519/conferencearticle_5b1b9398d1adf1.08545898 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Sergei Soldatenko ◽

Genrikh Alekseev ◽

Alexander Danilov ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

Coastal Areas ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

System Structure ◽

The Arctic ◽

Risk Modeling ◽

Wide Range ◽

Adverse Weather ◽

The Impact

Every aspect of human operations faces a wide range of risks, some of which can cause serious consequences. By the start of 21st century, mankind has recognized a new class of risks posed by climate change. It is obvious, that the global climate is changing, and will continue to change, in ways that affect the planning and day to day operations of businesses, government agencies and other organizations and institutions. The manifestations of climate change include but not limited to rising sea levels, increasing temperature, flooding, melting polar sea ice, adverse weather events (e.g. heatwaves, drought, and storms) and a rise in related problems (e.g. health and environmental). Assessing and managing climate risks represent one of the most challenging issues of today and for the future. The purpose of the risk modeling system discussed in this paper is to provide a framework and methodology to quantify risks caused by climate change, to facilitate estimates of the impact of climate change on various spheres of human activities and to compare eventual adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The system integrates both physical climate system and economic models together with knowledge-based subsystem, which can help support proactive risk management. System structure and its main components are considered. Special attention is paid to climate risk assessment, management and hedging in the Arctic coastal areas.

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Evolution of Burned Area in Forest Fires under Climate Change Conditions in Southern Spain Using ANN

Applied Sciences ◽

10.3390/app9194155 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (19) ◽

pp. 4155

Author(s):

Pérez-Sánchez ◽

Jimeno-Sáez ◽

Senent-Aparicio ◽

Díaz-Palmero ◽

de Dios Cabezas-Cerezo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Southern Spain ◽

Burned Area ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Absolute Deviation ◽

Average Temperature ◽

Mediterranean Regions ◽

Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽

Absolute Percent Error

Wildfires in Mediterranean regions have become a serious problem, and it is currently the main cause of forest loss. Numerous prediction methods have been applied worldwide to estimate future fire activity and area burned in order to provide a stable basis for future allocation of fire-fighting resources. The present study investigated the performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) in burned area size prediction and to assess the evolution of future wildfires and the area concerned under climate change in southern Spain. The study area comprised 39.41 km2 of land burned from 2000 to 2014. ANNs were used in two subsequential phases: classifying the size of the wildfires and predicting the burned surface for fires larger than 30,000 m2. Matrix of confusion and 10-fold cross-validations were used to evaluate ANN classification and mean absolute deviation, root mean square error, mean absolute percent error and bias, which were the metrics used for burned area prediction. The success rate achieved was above 60–70% depending on the zone. An average temperature increase of 3 °C and a 20% increase in wind speed during 2071–2100 results in a significant increase of the number of fires, up to triple the current figure, resulting in seven times the average yearly burned surface depending on the zone and the climate change scenario.

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Contrasting Perspectives Regarding Climate Risks and Adaptation Strategies in the New York Metropolitan Area after Superstorm Sandy

Journal of Extreme Events ◽

10.1142/s2345737614500055 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 01 (01) ◽

pp. 1450005 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Stephanie Miller ◽

Griffin Kidd ◽

Franco Montalto ◽

Patrick Gurian ◽

Cortney Worrall ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

New York ◽

Adaptation Strategies ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Strong Impact ◽

Structured Interviews ◽

Superstorm Sandy ◽

Climate Risks ◽

York Metropolitan Area

The purpose of this study was to examine stakeholder perceptions of climate change and local adaptation strategies in the New York City area. A side-by-side comparison of expert and resident opinions provided a clear picture of the region's climate change attitude in the year following Superstorm Sandy. Semi-structured interviews with regional environmental experts provided material for a structured survey, which was then distributed to 100 experts and 250 residents in coastal NY and northern NJ counties. In the survey both stakeholder groups were asked to choose the top three climate threats to the NYC region and rate adaptation and mitigation strategies on a 1–5 Likert scale regarding their ability to protect the region and their cost-effectiveness. Results show that experts and residents agree that sea level rise, coastal flooding and storm surge, and an increased frequency and intensity of extreme events pose the greatest threats to NYC over the next 25 years. While both groups showed a preference for long-term planning over immediate action, experts and residents could not agree on which specific strategies would best serve the region. The aftermath of Superstorm Sandy had a strong impact on both the expert and resident opinions and efforts to monitor stakeholder opinions continue.

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Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century

Biogeosciences ◽

10.5194/bg-18-5053-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (18) ◽

pp. 5053-5083

Author(s):

Jessica L. McCarty ◽

Juha Aalto ◽

Ville-Veikko Paunu ◽

Steve R. Arnold ◽

Sabine Eckhardt ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Black Carbon ◽

Biomass Burning ◽

Fire Regimes ◽

Future Climate ◽

The Arctic ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Fire Emissions ◽

Extreme Fire

Abstract. In recent years, the pan-Arctic region has experienced increasingly extreme fire seasons. Fires in the northern high latitudes are driven by current and future climate change, lightning, fuel conditions, and human activity. In this context, conceptualizing and parameterizing current and future Arctic fire regimes will be important for fire and land management as well as understanding current and predicting future fire emissions. The objectives of this review were driven by policy questions identified by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) Working Group and posed to its Expert Group on Short-Lived Climate Forcers. This review synthesizes current understanding of the changing Arctic and boreal fire regimes, particularly as fire activity and its response to future climate change in the pan-Arctic have consequences for Arctic Council states aiming to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the north. The conclusions from our synthesis are the following. (1) Current and future Arctic fires, and the adjacent boreal region, are driven by natural (i.e. lightning) and human-caused ignition sources, including fires caused by timber and energy extraction, prescribed burning for landscape management, and tourism activities. Little is published in the scientific literature about cultural burning by Indigenous populations across the pan-Arctic, and questions remain on the source of ignitions above 70∘ N in Arctic Russia. (2) Climate change is expected to make Arctic fires more likely by increasing the likelihood of extreme fire weather, increased lightning activity, and drier vegetative and ground fuel conditions. (3) To some extent, shifting agricultural land use and forest transitions from forest–steppe to steppe, tundra to taiga, and coniferous to deciduous in a warmer climate may increase and decrease open biomass burning, depending on land use in addition to climate-driven biome shifts. However, at the country and landscape scales, these relationships are not well established. (4) Current black carbon and PM2.5 emissions from wildfires above 50 and 65∘ N are larger than emissions from the anthropogenic sectors of residential combustion, transportation, and flaring. Wildfire emissions have increased from 2010 to 2020, particularly above 60∘ N, with 56 % of black carbon emissions above 65∘ N in 2020 attributed to open biomass burning – indicating how extreme the 2020 wildfire season was and how severe future Arctic wildfire seasons can potentially be. (5) What works in the boreal zones to prevent and fight wildfires may not work in the Arctic. Fire management will need to adapt to a changing climate, economic development, the Indigenous and local communities, and fragile northern ecosystems, including permafrost and peatlands. (6) Factors contributing to the uncertainty of predicting and quantifying future Arctic fire regimes include underestimation of Arctic fires by satellite systems, lack of agreement between Earth observations and official statistics, and still needed refinements of location, conditions, and previous fire return intervals on peat and permafrost landscapes. This review highlights that much research is needed in order to understand the local and regional impacts of the changing Arctic fire regime on emissions and the global climate, ecosystems, and pan-Arctic communities.

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Climate change and forest management affect forest fire risk in Fennoscandia

10.35614/isbn.9789523361355 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Forest Management ◽

Black Carbon ◽

Forest Fire ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Fire Risk ◽

The Arctic ◽

Large Fires ◽

Forest Fire Risk ◽

Fire Ignition

Forest and wildland fires are a natural part of ecosystems worldwide, but large fires in particular can cause societal, economic and ecological disruption. Fires are an important source of greenhouse gases and black carbon that can further amplify and accelerate climate change. In recent years, large forest fires in Sweden demonstrate that the issue should also be considered in other parts of Fennoscandia. This final report of the project “Forest fires in Fennoscandia under changing climate and forest cover (IBA ForestFires)” funded by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, synthesises current knowledge of the occurrence, monitoring, modelling and suppression of forest fires in Fennoscandia. The report also focuses on elaborating the role of forest fires as a source of black carbon (BC) emissions over the Arctic and discussing the importance of international collaboration in tackling forest fires. The report explains the factors regulating fire ignition, spread and intensity in Fennoscandian conditions. It highlights that the climate in Fennoscandia is characterised by large inter-annual variability, which is reflected in forest fire risk. Here, the majority of forest fires are caused by human activities such as careless handling of fire and ignitions related to forest harvesting. In addition to weather and climate, fuel characteristics in forests influence fire ignition, intensity and spread. In the report, long-term fire statistics are presented for Finland, Sweden and the Republic of Karelia. The statistics indicate that the amount of annually burnt forest has decreased in Fennoscandia. However, with the exception of recent large fires in Sweden, during the past 25 years the annually burnt area and number of fires have been fairly stable, which is mainly due to effective fire mitigation. Land surface models were used to investigate how climate change and forest management can influence forest fires in the future. The simulations were conducted using different regional climate models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Simulations, extending to 2100, indicate that forest fire risk is likely to increase over the coming decades. The report also highlights that globally, forest fires are a significant source of BC in the Arctic, having adverse health effects and further amplifying climate warming. However, simulations made using an atmospheric dispersion model indicate that the impact of forest fires in Fennoscandia on the environment and air quality is relatively minor and highly seasonal. Efficient forest fire mitigation requires the development of forest fire detection tools including satellites and drones, high spatial resolution modelling of fire risk and fire spreading that account for detailed terrain and weather information. Moreover, increasing the general preparedness and operational efficiency of firefighting is highly important. Forest fires are a large challenge requiring multidisciplinary research and close cooperation between the various administrative operators, e.g. rescue services, weather services, forest organisations and forest owners is required at both the national and international level.

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Economics of the disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ◽

10.1073/pnas.1814990116 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 116 (25) ◽

pp. 12261-12269 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

William Nordhaus

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Large Scale ◽

Social Cost ◽

Climate Models ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Reduced Form ◽

Small Contribution ◽

Wide Range ◽

The Impact

Concerns about the impact on large-scale earth systems have taken center stage in the scientific and economic analysis of climate change. The present study analyzes the economic impact of a potential disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS). The study introduces an approach that combines long-run economic growth models, climate models, and reduced-form GIS models. The study demonstrates that social cost–benefit analysis and damage-limiting strategies can be usefully extended to illuminate issues with major long-term consequences, as well as concerns such as potential tipping points, irreversibility, and hysteresis. A key finding is that, under a wide range of assumptions, the risk of GIS disintegration makes a small contribution to the optimal stringency of current policy or to the overall social cost of climate change. It finds that the cost of GIS disintegration adds less than 5% to the social cost of carbon (SCC) under alternative discount rates and estimates of the GIS dynamics.

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Forest Fire Regime in a Mediterranean Ecosystem: Unraveling the Mutual Interrelations between Rainfall Seasonality, Soil Moisture, Drought Persistence, and Biomass Dynamics

Fire ◽

10.3390/fire3030049 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 3 (3) ◽

pp. 49

Author(s):

Nunzio Romano ◽

Nadia Ursino

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Soil Water ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Fire Regime ◽

Fire Regimes ◽

Mediterranean Ecosystem ◽

Water Retention Capacity ◽

Soil Water Retention ◽

Retention Capacity ◽

Rainfall Frequency

Frequent and severe droughts typically intensify wildfires provided that there is enough fuel in situ. The extent to which climate change may influence the fire regime and long time-scale hydrological processes may soften the effect of inter-annual climate change and, more specifically, whether soil-water retention capacity can alleviate the harsh conditions resulting from droughts and affect fire regimes, are still largely unexplored matters. The research presented in this paper is a development of a previous investigation and shows in what way, and to what extent, rainfall frequency, dry season length, and hydraulic response of different soil types drive forest fires toward different regimes while taking into consideration the typical seasonality of the Mediterranean climate. The soil-water holding capacity, which facilitates biomass growth in between fire events and hence favors fuel production, may worsen the fire regime as long dry summers become more frequent, such that the ecosystem’s resilience to climate shifts may eventually be undermined.

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Do Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Models Improve Projections of Future Precipitation Change?

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society ◽

10.1175/bams-d-15-0004.1 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 98 (1) ◽

pp. 79-93 ◽

Cited By ~ 121

Author(s):

Elizabeth J. Kendon ◽

Nikolina Ban ◽

Nigel M. Roberts ◽

Hayley J. Fowler ◽

Malcolm J. Roberts ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Convective Storms ◽

Wide Range

Abstract Regional climate projections are used in a wide range of impact studies, from assessing future flood risk to climate change impacts on food and energy production. These model projections are typically at 12–50-km resolution, providing valuable regional detail but with inherent limitations, in part because of the need to parameterize convection. The first climate change experiments at convection-permitting resolution (kilometer-scale grid spacing) are now available for the United Kingdom; the Alps; Germany; Sydney, Australia; and the western United States. These models give a more realistic representation of convection and are better able to simulate hourly precipitation characteristics that are poorly represented in coarser-resolution climate models. Here we examine these new experiments to determine whether future midlatitude precipitation projections are robust from coarse to higher resolutions, with implications also for the tropics. We find that the explicit representation of the convective storms themselves, only possible in convection-permitting models, is necessary for capturing changes in the intensity and duration of summertime rain on daily and shorter time scales. Other aspects of rainfall change, including changes in seasonal mean precipitation and event occurrence, appear robust across resolutions, and therefore coarse-resolution regional climate models are likely to provide reliable future projections, provided that large-scale changes from the global climate model are reliable. The improved representation of convective storms also has implications for projections of wind, hail, fog, and lightning. We identify a number of impact areas, especially flooding, but also transport and wind energy, for which very high-resolution models may be needed for reliable future assessments.

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Contrasting dynamics of hydrological processes in the Volta River basin under global warming

10.5194/hess-2021-525 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Moctar Dembélé ◽

Mathieu Vrac ◽

Natalie Ceperley ◽

Sander J. Zwart ◽

Josh Larsen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

River Basin ◽

General Circulation ◽

Climate Models ◽

Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽

Local Population ◽

Hydrologic Model ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Low Flow

Abstract. A comprehensive evaluation of the impacts of climate change on water resources of the West Africa Volta River basin is conducted in this study, as the region is expected to be hardest hit by global warming. A large ensemble of twelve general circulation models (GCM) from CMIP5 that are dynamically downscaled by five regional climate models (RCM) from CORDEX-Africa is used. In total, 43 RCM-GCM combinations are considered under three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The reliability of each of the climate datasets is first evaluated with satellite and reanalysis reference datasets. Subsequently, the Rank Resampling for Distributions and Dependences (R2D2) multivariate bias correction method is applied to the climate datasets. The corrected simulations are then used as input to the fully distributed mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) for hydrological projections over the twenty-first century (1991–2100). Results reveal contrasting changes in the seasonality of rainfall depending on the selected greenhouse gas emission scenarios and the future projection periods. Although air temperature and potential evaporation increase under all RCPs, an increase in the magnitude of all hydrological variables (actual evaporation, total runoff, groundwater recharge, soil moisture and terrestrial water storage) is only projected under RCP8.5. High and low flow analysis suggests an increased flood risk under RCP8.5, particularly in the Black Volta, while hydrological droughts would be recurrent under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, particularly in the White Volta. Disparities are observed in the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic variables across climatic zones, with higher warming in the Sahelian zone. Therefore, climate change would have severe implications for future water availability with concerns for rain-fed agriculture, thereby weakening the water-energy-food security nexus and amplifying the vulnerability of the local population. The variability between climate models highlights uncertainties in the projections and indicates a need to better represent complex climate features in regional models. These findings could serve as a guideline for both the scientific community to improve climate change projections and for decision makers to elaborate adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the consequences of climate change and strengthen regional socio-economic development.

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The potential use of sedimentary pyrogenic biomarkers to quantitatively reconstruct wildfires occurrence and extension

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11080 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Maria Raja ◽

Pedro Rivas ◽

Gorka Muñoa ◽

Carles Moreu ◽

Nuria Penalva ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Spatial Distribution ◽

Polyaromatic Hydrocarbons ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

Regional Distribution ◽

Lacustrine Sediments ◽

Fire Regimes ◽

Burned Area ◽

Polycarboxylic Acids ◽

Wide Range ◽

Different Types

We have developed and applied new analytical methodologies to study the drivers of the spatial distribution of pyrogenic biomarkers throughout the Iberian Peninsula. The goal of the study is to develop a multiproxy pyrogenic biomarker approach to quantitatively reconstruct the paleo-occurrence and extension of biomass wildfires from sediments. For this purpose, we have compiled an extensive collection of lacustrine sediments throughout Spain. The sample suite is representative of a wide range of climates and ecosystems. We have quantified the abundance of different types of pyrogenic biomarkers such as BPCAs (benzene polycarboxylic acids derived from the chemical oxydation of pyrogenic carbon), MAS (monosaccharide anhydrides, namely levoglucosan) and PAHs (polyaromatic hydrocarbons namely with 4 or more rings). The data obtained, as concentrations or ratios, has been mapped and compared to the documented occurrence and extension of wildfires in Spain over the last 5 decades. Specifically, we have calculated the burned area within different radius around the lake, and correlated them against the biomarker data.&#160;The regional distribution of fires in Spain is the primary driver of the spatial distribution of pyrogenic biomarkers in lakes sediments. Thus, the sedimentary concentration of pyrogenic biomarkers, generally, correlates with the area of burned forest land within a radius of 10-20km. Work is still under way to decipher the meaning between the correlations of different types of pyrogenic biomarkers, and the relation between biomarker ratios and fire regimes and vegetation types. Our study shows that pyrogenic biomarkers in lakes can be used as paleoproxies to study regional fires, as opposed to those occurring at larger spatial scales. It remains to be seen, how our findings&#160; from Spanish lakes can be extrapolated &#160;to other continental regions.&#160; Nonetheless, our study validates their use to quantify the area of forest burned in the region surrounding the lake, in addition to the frequency of fires in the past.

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