scholarly journals The Impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation on the Number of Visitors to Natural Attractions: The Moderating Effect of Disposable Personal Income, per Capita GDP and Population

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 1189
Author(s):  
Li Xiong ◽  
Ke Gong ◽  
Qingyun Tang ◽  
Yuanxiang Dong ◽  
Wei Xu
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Gaussian Mixture ◽  
The United States ◽  
Disposable Income ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Income Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

Analyzing the impact of El Nilo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the number of tourists is essential in realizing the sustainable development of natural scenic spots. From the current research results, research on the effects of ENSO on tourism focuses on the impact of the formation of the natural environment. However, there is a lack of ENSO-related research on the number of people arriving at natural attractions. This paper considers the adjustment effects of personal disposable income, per capita GDP, and population size and constructs a new framework of ENSO’s influence on tourism. This paper builds a system GMM (Gaussian Mixture Model) and analyzes the impact of ENSO on tourist flow by using Google Trend data (big data technology) to obtain annual passenger flow data of 48 natural scenic spots in the United States (mainly national parks and national forests). The empirical results show that the increase in ENSO has led to a significant decrease in visitors to natural attractions in the United States. Moreover, the increase in personal disposable income, per capita GDP, and population size can weaken the relationship between ENSO and the number of tourists. This research expands and enriches the theoretical perspective of ENSO and outdoor tourism.

scholarly journals COVID-19 scenarios for the United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Simon I Hay
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Reference Scenario ◽  
Level Model ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact

The United States (US) has not been spared in the ongoing pandemic of novel coronavirus disease. COVID-19, caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), continues to cause death and disease in all 50 states, as well as significant economic damage wrought by the non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) adopted in attempts to control transmission. We use a deterministic, Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered (SEIR) compartmental framework to model possible trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the impact of NPI at the state level. Model performance was tested against reported deaths from 01 February to 04 July 2020. Using this SEIR model and projections of critical driving covariates (pneumonia seasonality, mobility, testing rates, and mask use per capita), we assessed some possible futures of the COVID-19 pandemic from 05 July through 31 December 2020. We explored future scenarios that included feasible assumptions about NPIs including social distancing mandates (SDMs) and levels of mask use. The range of infection, death, and hospital demand outcomes revealed by these scenarios show that action taken during the summer of 2020 will have profound public health impacts through to the year end. Encouragingly, we find that an emphasis on universal mask use may be sufficient to ameliorate the worst effects of epidemic resurgences in many states. Masks may save as many as 102,795 (55,898-183,374) lives, when compared to a plausible reference scenario in December. In addition, widespread mask use may markedly reduce the need for more socially and economically deleterious SDMs.

scholarly journals Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes

2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (5) ◽  
pp. 50-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carmen M. Reinhart ◽  
Kenneth S. Rogoff
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
The United States ◽  
Banking Crises ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Post War

We examine the evolution of real per capita GDP around 100 systemic banking crises. Part of the costs of these crises owes to the protracted nature of recovery. On average, it takes about 8 years to reach the pre-crisis level of income; the median is about 6.5 years. Five to six years after the onset of crisis, only Germany and the United States (out of 12 systemic cases) have reached their 2007-2008 peaks in real income. Forty-five percent of the episodes recorded double dips. Post-war business cycles are not the relevant comparator for the recent crises in advanced economies.

The Road Not Taken: Pre-Revolutionary Cuban Living Standards in Comparative Perspective

2012 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 104-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
MARIANNE WARD ◽  
JOHN DEVEREUX
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
The United States ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Income Per Capita ◽  
The Road ◽  
World Income ◽  
World Income Distribution ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Revolution

We examine Cuban GDP over time and across space. We find that Cuba was once a prosperous middle-income economy. On the eve of the revolution, incomes were 50 to 60 percent of European levels. They were among the highest in Latin America at about 30 percent of the United States. In relative terms, Cuba was richer earlier on. Income per capita during the 1920s was in striking distance of Western Europe and the Southern United States. After the revolution, Cuba slipped down the world income distribution. Current levels of income per capita appear below their pre-revolutionary peaks.

scholarly journals COVID-19 and Regional Income Inequality in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianfu Shen ◽  
Wai Yan Shum ◽  
Tsun Se Cheong ◽  
Lafang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Disposable Income ◽  
Rural Residents ◽  
Regional Income ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Income Per Capita ◽  
Regional Income Inequality ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of COVID-19 and social distancing policies on regional income inequality. We base our study on a sample of 295 prefecture (and above) cities in 31 provinces in China. A distribution dynamics approach is employed to reveal the trend and movement of disposable income per capita in each city before the COVID-19 pandemic, during the COVID-19 pandemic, and in the period when the COVID-19 was under the control. The findings reveal significant negative economic consequences of the COVID-19 in the first quarter of 2020 and show that most cities will converge to a level of disposable income which is much less than the Pre-COVID level if the COVID pandemic persists. Regional income inequality has intensified in the cities that have a longer duration of stringent social distancing policies during the COVID-19 pandemic and disappeared in the cities with policies of short duration. Disposable income per capita for urban residents recovered quickly when the transmission of coronavirus was effectively contained; and yet the impact of the pandemic on rural residents remains unresolved, if not intensified. This study demonstrates a significant divergence of the trend of disposable income across cities with different durations of social distancing policies and between urban and rural residents. It also highlights the importance of stringent social distancing policies in containing the spread of virus in a short time and calls for special policy attention for rural regions in the recovery from the COVID-19.

Geographic Dispersion of Economic Shocks: Evidence from the Fracking Revolution: Reply

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (6) ◽  
pp. 1914-1920 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Feyrer ◽  
Erin Mansur ◽  
Bruce Sacerdote
Keyword(s):  
Energy Production ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
New Production ◽  
Oil And Gas Production ◽  
Income Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

Measuring the geographic spillovers from an economic shock remains a challenging econometric problem. In Feyrer, Mansur, and Sacerdote (2017) we study the propagation of positive shocks from the recent boom in oil and gas production in the United States. We regress changes in income per capita on new energy production per capita within increasingly larger geographic circles. James and Smith (2020) proposes instead a single regression of county income per capita on energy production from successively larger donuts around the county. This method controls for production outside of the circle of interest and is likely the appropriate estimation method for estimating the impact of within-county production. Their results suggest that FMS overestimates the impact of new production. We show that we can incorporate similar controls using our basic estimation method and that (unlike James and Smith) these controls do not significantly change our results. To explore these differences, we perform simulation exercises which show that the James-Smith estimation method is biased downward with the heterogeneous population distributions across counties that we observe in the data. (JEL E24, E32, J31, Q35, Q43, R11, R23)

scholarly journals ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE: THE CASE OF CANADA, SPAIN AND INDONESIAN ON CO2EMISSION

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 366-372
Author(s):  
Erwinsyah
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Environmental Kuznets Curve ◽  
Research Output ◽  
Education Quality ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Income Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The Environmental Kuznets Curve is used to investigate the relationship between various indicators of environmental degradation and income per capita. The economic growth measured from the change of income per capita contributes negative externalities to nature, and education contributes to better knowledge for sustainable development. The purpose of this research was to apply the Environmental Kuznets Curve to see the impact of income per capita and education on environmental degradation. The objective of this research was to examine how GDP per capita and education contribute to per capita CO2emission in Canada, Spain, and Indonesia. The research output showed a relationship between per capita GDP with per capita CO2emission in Canada and Spain. Contribution of per capita GDP to per capita CO2emission of Canada higher than Spain. The higher per capita GDP will rise per capita CO2emission. The per capita GDP of Indonesia does did contribute significantly to per capita CO2emission. The was also a significant relationship between education quality and per capita CO2emission in Canada, Spain, and Indonesia. The better education quality in Canada and Spain contribute to lower per capita CO2 emissions. Education quality in Indonesia contributed to the higher per capita CO2emission. Keywords:Environmental Kuznets Curve, Per Capita CO2 Emission, Per Capita GDP, Education

scholarly journals Relative U.K./U.S. Output Reconsidered: A Reply to Professor Broadberry

2004 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 879-891 ◽  
Author(s):  
MARIANNE WARD ◽  
JOHN DEVEREUX
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Price Indices ◽  
Income Per Capita ◽  
Long Span ◽  
Sectoral Productivity ◽  
Per Capita

In the September 2003 issue of this JOURNAL, we provided benchmark comparisons of U.K./U.S. income from 1870 to 1990. In contrast to long-span projections from Angus Maddison and others, our estimates show the United States leading from 1870 in terms of income per capita and output per worker. In a 12-page comment that accompanies our article, Professor Stephen Broadberry criticizes our work on three grounds. First, he charges our estimates are inconsistent with his U.K./U.S. sectoral productivity comparisons. Second, he chastises us on the grounds that our price benchmarks conflict with standard U.S. and U.K. price indices. Finally, he queries our nominal GDP estimates.

scholarly journals The Impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Winter and Early Spring U.S. Tornado Outbreaks

2017 ◽  
Vol 56 (9) ◽  
pp. 2455-2478 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashton Robinson Cook ◽  
Lance M. Leslie ◽  
David B. Parsons ◽  
Joseph T. Schaefer
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Early Spring ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Tornado Outbreaks

AbstractIn recent years, the potential of seasonal outlooks for tornadoes has attracted the attention of researchers. Previous studies on this topic have focused mainly on the influence of global circulation patterns [e.g., El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation, or Pacific decadal oscillation] on spring tornadoes. However, these studies have yielded conflicting results of the roles of these climate drivers on tornado intensity and frequency. The present study seeks to establish linkages between ENSO and tornado outbreaks over the United States during winter and early spring. These linkages are established in two ways: 1) statistically, by relating raw counts of tornadoes in outbreaks (defined as six or more tornadoes in a 24-h period in the United States east of the Rocky Mountains), and their destructive potential, to sea surface temperature anomalies observed in the Niño-3.4 region, and 2) qualitatively, by relating ENSO to shifts in synoptic-scale atmospheric phenomena that contribute to tornado outbreaks. The latter approach is critical for interpreting the statistical relationships, thereby avoiding the deficiencies in a few of the previous studies that did not provide physical explanations relating ENSO to shifts in tornado activity. The results suggest that shifts in tornado occurrence are clearly related to ENSO. In particular, La Niña conditions consistently foster more frequent and intense tornado activity in comparison with El Niño, particularly at higher latitudes. Furthermore, it is found that tornado activity changes are tied not only to the location and intensity of the subtropical jet during individual outbreaks but also to the positions of surface cyclones, low-level jet streams, and instability axes.

scholarly journals A U.S. CLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (19) ◽  
pp. 5251-5272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siegfried Schubert ◽  
David Gutzler ◽  
Hailan Wang ◽  
Aiguo Dai ◽  
Tom Delworth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Signal To Noise ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Precipitation Response ◽  
Sst Forcing ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land–atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) and one coupled atmosphere–ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This paper provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all of the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the United States tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite signs. Further highlights of the response over the United States to the Pacific forcing include precipitation signal-to-noise ratios that peak in spring, and surface temperature signal-to-noise ratios that are both lower and show less agreement among the models than those found for the precipitation response. The response to the positive SST trend forcing pattern is an overall surface warming over the world’s land areas, with substantial regional variations that are in part reproduced in runs forced with a globally uniform SST trend forcing. The precipitation response to the trend forcing is weak in all of the models. It is hoped that these early results, as well as those reported in the other contributions to this special issue on drought, will serve to stimulate further analysis of these simulations, as well as suggest new research on the physical mechanisms contributing to hydroclimatic variability and change throughout the world.

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