scholarly journals A New Method to Estimate Heat Exposure Days and Its Impacts in China

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 1294
Author(s):  
Guizhen Guo ◽  
Dandan Wang ◽  
Zhoupeng Ren ◽  
Qian Yin ◽  
Yunbing Gao
Keyword(s):  
Heat Exposure ◽  
New Method ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Climate Zones ◽  
The Past ◽  
Spatiotemporal Trends ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Minimum Mortality Temperature ◽  
Population Ratio ◽  
Related Mortality

Understanding the spatiotemporal trends of temperature in the context of global warming is significant for public health. Although many studies have examined changes in temperature and the impacts on human health over the past few decades in many regions, they have often been carried out in data-rich regions and have rarely considered acclimatization explicitly. The most frequent temperature (MFT) indicator provides us with the ability to solve this problem. MFT is defined as the longest period of temperature throughout the year to which a human is exposed and therefore acclimates. In this study, we propose a new method to estimate the number of heat exposure days from the perspective of temperature distribution and MFT, based on the daily mean temperature readings of 2142 weather stations in eight major climate zones in China over the past 20 years. This method can be used to calculate the number of heat exposure days in terms of heat-related mortality risk without the need for mortality data. We estimated the distribution and changes of annual mean temperature (AMT), minimum mortality temperature (MMT), and the number of heat exposure days in different climate zones in China. The AMT, MMT, and number of heat exposure days vary considerably across China. They all tend to decrease gradually from low to high latitudes. Heat exposure days are closely related to the risk of heat-related mortality. In addition, we utilized multiple linear regression (MLR) to analyze the association between the risk of heat-related mortality and the city and its climatic characteristics. Results showed that the number of heat exposure days, GDP per capita, urban population ratio, proportion of elderly population, and climate zone were found to modify the estimate on heat effect, with an R2 of 0.71. These findings will be helpful for the creation of public policies protecting against high-temperature-induced mortalities.

scholarly journals Recent Trends in Heat-Related Mortality in the United States: An Update through 2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-106
Author(s):  
Scott C. Sheridan ◽  
P. Grady Dixon ◽  
Adam J. Kalkstein ◽  
Michael J. Allen
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
The Past ◽  
Extreme Heat Event ◽  
Excess Heat Factor ◽  
Heat Events ◽  
Related Mortality

AbstractMuch research has shown a general decrease in the negative health response to extreme heat events in recent decades. With a society that is growing older, and a climate that is warming, whether this trend can continue is an open question. Using eight additional years of mortality data, we extend our previous research to explore trends in heat-related mortality across the United States. For the period 1975–2018, we examined the mortality associated with extreme-heat-event days across the 107 largest metropolitan areas. Mortality response was assessed over a cumulative 10-day lag period following events that were defined using thresholds of the excess heat factor, using a distributed-lag nonlinear model. We analyzed total mortality and subsets of age and sex. Our results show that in the past decade there is heterogeneity in the trends of heat-related human mortality. The decrease in heat vulnerability continues among those 65 and older across most of the country, which may be associated with improved messaging and increased awareness. These decreases are offset in many locations by an increase in mortality among men 45–64 (+1.3 deaths per year), particularly across parts of the southern and southwestern United States. As heat-warning messaging broadly identifies the elderly as the most vulnerable group, the results here suggest that differences in risk perception may play a role. Further, an increase in the number of heat events over the past decade across the United States may have contributed to the end of a decades-long downward trend in the estimated number of heat-related fatalities.

Children’s Lives and Deaths in Merovingian Gaul

2020 ◽  
pp. 185-213
Author(s):  
Émilie Perez
Keyword(s):  
Social Identity ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
New Method ◽  
Recent Analysis ◽  
Age And Gender ◽  
The Past ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Grave Goods

The role of children in Merovingian society has long been downplayed, and the study of their graves and bones has long been neglected. However, during the past fifteen years, archaeologists have shown growing interest in the place of children in Merovingian society. Nonetheless, this research has not been without challenges linked to the nature of the biological and material remains. Recent analysis of 315 children’s graves from four Merovingian cemeteries in northern Gaul (sixth to seventh centuries) allows us to understand the modalities of burial ritual for children. A new method for classifying children into social age groups shows that the type, quality, quantity, and diversity of grave goods were directly correlated with the age of the deceased. They increased from the age of eight and particularly around the time of puberty. This study discusses the role of age and gender in the construction and expression of social identity during childhood in the Merovingian period.

scholarly journals Impact of Relaxing Covid-19 Social Distancing Measures on Rural North Wales: A Simulation Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rhodri P. Hughes ◽  
Dyfrig A. Hughes
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Rural Regions ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
North Wales ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Sigmoidal Growth ◽  
Related Mortality

Background: Social distancing policies aimed to limit Covid-19 across the UK were gradually relaxed between May and August 2020, as peak incidences passed. Population density is an important driver of national incidence rates; however peak incidences in rural regions may lag national figures by several weeks. We aimed to forecast the timing of peak Covid-19 mortality rate in rural North Wales.Methods: Covid-19 related mortality data up to 7/5/2020 were obtained from Public Health Wales and the UK Government. Sigmoidal growth functions were fitted by non-linear least squares and model averaging used to extrapolate mortality to 24/8/2020. The dates of peak mortality incidences for North Wales, Wales and the UK; and the percentage of predicted mortality at 24/8/2020 were calculated.Results: The peak daily death rates in Wales and the UK were estimated to have occurred on the 14/04/2020 and 15/04/2020, respectively. For North Wales, this occurred on the 07/05/2020, corresponding to the date of analysis. The number of deaths reported in North Wales on 07/05/2020 represents 33% of the number predicted to occur by 24/08/2020, compared with 74 and 62% for Wales and the UK, respectively.Conclusion: Policies governing the movement of people in the gradual release from lockdown are likely to impact significantly on areas–principally rural in nature–where cases of Covid-19, deaths and immunity are likely to be much lower than in populated areas. This is particularly difficult to manage across jurisdictions, such as between England and Wales, and in popular holiday destinations.

scholarly journals Antiplatelet Agents for Cancer Prevention: Current Evidences and Continuing Controversies

Cancers ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1639 ◽  
Author(s):  
Corinne Frere ◽  
Manon Lejeune ◽  
Pierre Kubicek ◽  
Dorothée Faille ◽  
Zora Marjanovic ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Evidence ◽  
Task Force ◽  
Cardiovascular Prevention ◽  
Antiplatelet Agents ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Low Dose Aspirin ◽  
The Us ◽  
Secondary Analyses ◽  
Prevention Trials ◽  
Related Mortality

Over the past two decades, aspirin has emerged as a promising chemoprotective agent to prevent colorectal cancer (CRC). In 2016, the mounting evidence supporting its chemoprotective effect, from both basic science and clinical research, led the US Preventive Services Task Force to recommend regular use of low-dose aspirin in some subgroups of patients for whom the benefits are deemed to outweigh the risks. In contrast, data on the chemoprotective effect of aspirin against other cancers are less clear and remain controversial. Most data come from secondary analyses of cardiovascular prevention trials, with only a limited number reporting cancer outcomes as a prespecified endpoint, and overall unclear findings. Moreover, the potential chemoprotective effect of aspirin against other cancers has been recently questioned with the publication of 3 long-awaited trials of aspirin in the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases reporting no benefit of aspirin on overall cancer incidence and cancer-related mortality. Data on the chemoprotective effects of other antiplatelet agents remain scarce and inconclusive, and further research to examine their benefit are warranted. In this narrative review, we summarize current clinical evidence and continuing controversies on the potential chemoprotective properties of antiplatelet agents against cancer.

scholarly journals Toward Resolving the Challenges of Sepsis Diagnosis

2004 ◽  
Vol 50 (8) ◽  
pp. 1301-1314 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shawn D Carrigan ◽  
George Scott ◽  
Maryam Tabrizian
Keyword(s):  
Medical Diagnosis ◽  
Delayed Diagnosis ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Immune Monitoring ◽  
Diagnostic Methods ◽  
Magic Bullet ◽  
Sepsis Diagnosis ◽  
The Past ◽  
Related Mortality

Abstract Sepsis in the United States has an estimated annual healthcare cost of $16.7 billion and leads to 120 000 deaths. Insufficient development in both medical diagnosis and treatment of sepsis has led to continued growth in reported cases of sepsis over the past two decades with little improvement in mortality statistics. Efforts over the last decade to improve diagnosis have unsuccessfully sought to identify a “magic bullet” proteic biomarker that provides high sensitivity and specificity for infectious inflammation. More recently, genetic methods have made tracking regulation of the genes responsible for these biomarkers possible, giving current research new direction in the search to understand how host immune response combats infection. Despite the breadth of research, inadequate treatment as a result of delayed diagnosis continues to affect approximately one fourth of septic patients. In this report we review past and present diagnostic methods for sepsis and their respective limitations, and discuss the requirements for more timely diagnosis as the next step in curtailing sepsis-related mortality. We also present a proposal toward revision of the current diagnostic paradigm to include real-time immune monitoring.

scholarly journals The spatial epidemiology of alcohol-related mortality among the Czech adult population

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
L Kazmer ◽  
I Kulhanova ◽  
M Lustigova
Keyword(s):  
Local Community ◽  
Spatial Epidemiology ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Health Determinants ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Inequalities In Health ◽  
Related Mortality

Abstract Background In Czechia, alcohol-induced deaths account for a significant portion of preventable mortality. As inequalities in health are both socially and spatially determined, the paper aims at the detailed examination of socio-geographic inequalities of this phenomenon. Methods The 2011-2015 annual data on both ICD-10 cause-specific deaths (K70; F10; X45/64; Y15) and mid-year population were obtained from the official Czech registries - the data were cross-classified by gender, 5-year age-groups, and permanent residence (N = 6,302 small area spatial units). The selected socio-demographic indicators (education, unemployment, religious population) from the Czech 2011 Census were spatially merged to the mortality dataset. From the data on education and unemployment, composite deprivation index (DI) was derived. In the adult population aged 25+, the age-standardised mortality ratios (SMR) were computed for each of the spatial units, separately by genders. The SMRs were spatially modelled by the Besag-York-Mollié (BYM) autoregressive approach, applying a fully bayesian framework integrated within the INLA R-package. The study applied cross-sectional design and employed ecological regression conducted on observational data. Results Compared to the Czech average, the highest SMRs were located in the historical regions of Moravia [SMR=1.15; 95%CI: 1.11-1.19] and Silesia [SMR=1.59; 95%CI: 1.52-1.66]. The SMRs were significantly correlated with DI among males [Rel.Risk=1.15; 95%CI: 1.11-1.19], and with religiousness rate among females [Rel.Risk=0.83; 95%CI: 0.77-0.90]. Conclusions Significant socio-geographic inequalities were detected, particularly with respect to the Czech historical regions. Among males, higher mortality was associated with a structural deprivation. Among females, protective effect of religiousness rate was found to be significant. The results highlight an importance of both socially and spatially integrated efforts for public health promotion. Key messages The inequalities in health are both socially and spatially contextualised. The paper presents robust empirical evidence in favour of the proposition, as examined on alcohol-related mortality data. The health determinants may be gender sensitive. Males might be more responsive to a structural disadvantage. Among females, cultural factors related to a local community might be more relevant.

Biases in the estimation of size-dependent mortality models: advantages of a semiparametric approach

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (8) ◽  
pp. 1430-1443 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ghislain Vieilledent ◽  
Benoît Courbaud ◽  
Georges Kunstler ◽  
Jean-François Dhôte ◽  
James S. Clark
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Picea Abies ◽  
Abies Alba ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Strongly Nonlinear ◽  
Semiparametric Approach ◽  
Mortality Models ◽  
Large Trees ◽  
Parametric Functions ◽  
Related Mortality

Mortality rate is thought to show a U-shape relationship to tree size. This shape could result from a decrease of competition-related mortality as diameter increases, followed by an increase of senescence and disturbance-related mortality for large trees. Modeling mortality rate as a function of diameter is nevertheless difficult, first because this relationship is strongly nonlinear, and second because data can be unbalanced, with few observations for large trees. Parametric functions, which are inflexible and sensitive to the distribution of observations, tend to introduce biases in mortality rate estimates. In this study we use mortality data for Abies alba Mill. and Picea abies (L.) Karst. to demonstrate that mortality rate estimates for extreme diameters were biased when using classical parametric functions. We then propose a semiparametric approach allowing a more flexible relationship between mortality and diameter. We show that the relatively shade-tolerant A. alba has a lower annual mortality rate (2.75%) than P. abies (3.78%) for small trees (DBH <15 cm). Picea abies, supposedly more sensitive to bark beetle attacks and windthrows, had a higher mortality rate (up to 0.46%) than A. alba (up to 0.30%) for large trees (DBH ≥50 cm).

scholarly journals The Integration of Radiocarbon Dating in Archaeology

Radiocarbon ◽  
1983 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 639-644 ◽  
Author(s):  
H T Waterbolk
Keyword(s):  
Radiocarbon Dating ◽  
The Other ◽  
New Method ◽  
Time Range ◽  
Traditional Methods ◽  
Radiocarbon Dates ◽  
Fully Integrated ◽  
Expected Time ◽  
The Past

In the past 30 years many hundreds of archaeologic samples have been dated by radiocarbon laboratories. Yet, one cannot say that 14C dating is fully integrated into archaeology. For many archaeologists, a 14C date is an outside expertise, for which they are grateful, when it provides the answer to an otherwise insoluble chronologic problem and when it falls within the expected time range. But if a 14C date contradicts other chronologic evidence, they often find the ‘solution’ inexplicable. Some archaeologists are so impressed by the new method, that they neglect the other evidence; others simply reject problematic 14C dates as archaeologically unacceptable. Frequently, excavation reports are provided with an appendix listing the relevant 14C dates with little or no discussion of their implication. It is rare, indeed, to see in archaeologic reports a careful weighing of the various types of chronologic evidence. Yet, this is precisely what the archaeologist is accustomed to do with the evidence from his traditional methods for building up a chronology: typology and stratigraphy. Why should he not be able to include radiocarbon dates in the same way in his considerations?

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