scholarly journals Probability Risk of Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality to Temperature, Gender, and Age Using GAM Regression Analysis

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andri Pyrgou ◽  
Mattheos Santamouris
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Threshold Temperature ◽  
Smooth Functions ◽  
Covariate Data ◽  
Threshold Temperatures ◽  
Minimum Mortality Temperature ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Related Mortality

We have examined the heat and cold-related mortality risk subject to cold and heat extremes by using a generalized additive model (GAM) regression technique to quantify the effect of the stimulus of mortality in the presence of covariate data for 2007–2014 in Nicosia, Cyprus. The use of the GAM technique with multiple linear regression allowed for the continuous covariates of temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR) to be modeled as smooth functions and the lag period was considered to relate mortality to lagged values of temperature. Our findings indicate that the previous three days’ temperatures were strongly predictive of mortality. The mortality risk decreased as the minimum temperature (Tmin) increased from the coldest days to a certain threshold temperature about 20–21°C (different for each age group and gender), above which the mortality risk increased as Tmin increased. The investigated fixed factors analysis showed an insignificant association of gender-mortality, whereas the age-mortality association showed that the population over 80 was more vulnerable to temperature variations. It was recommended that the minimum mortality temperature is calculated using the minimum daily temperatures because it has a stronger correlation to the probability for risk of mortality. It is still undetermined as to what degree a change in existing climatic conditions will increase the environmental stress to humans as the population is acclimatized to different climates with different threshold temperatures and minimum mortality temperatures.

scholarly journals Evolution of the threshold temperature definition of a heat wave vs. evolution of the minimum mortality temperature: a case study in Spain during the 1983–2018 period

2021 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
J. A. López-Bueno ◽  
J. Díaz ◽  
F. Follos ◽  
J. M. Vellón ◽  
M. A. Navas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Evolution ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Threshold Temperature ◽  
Rate Of Evolution ◽  
Threshold Temperatures ◽  
Adaptation To Heat ◽  
Linear Fit ◽  
Minimum Mortality Temperature ◽  
Definition Of

Abstract Background An area of current study concerns analysis of the possible adaptation of the population to heat, based on the temporal evolution of the minimum mortality temperature (MMT). It is important to know how is the evolution of the threshold temperatures (Tthreshold) due to these temperatures provide the basis for the activation of public health prevention plans against high temperatures. The objective of this study was to analyze the temporal evolution of threshold temperatures (Tthreshold) produced in different Spanish regions during the 1983–2018 period and to compare this evolution with the evolution of MMT. The dependent variable used was the raw rate of daily mortality due to natural causes ICD X: (A00-R99) for the considered period. The independent variable was maximum daily temperature (Tmax) during the summer months registered in the reference observatory of each region. Threshold values were determined using dispersion diagrams (annual) of the prewhitened series of mortality temperatures and Tmax. Later, linear fit models were carried out between the different values of Tthreshold throughout the study period, which permitted detecting the annual rate of change in Tthreshold. Results The results obtained show that, on average, Tthreshold has increased at a rate of 0.57 ºC/decade in Spain, while Tmax temperatures in the summer have increased at a rate of 0.41 ºC/decade, suggesting adaptation to heat. This rate of evolution presents important geographic heterogeneity. Also, the rate of evolution of Tthreshold was similar to what was detected for MMT. Conclusions The temporal evolution of the series of both temperature measures can be used as indicators of population adaptation to heat. The temporal evolution of Tthreshold has important geographic variation, probably related to sociodemographic and economic factors, that should be studied at the local level.

scholarly journals BMI Trajectory In Relation to Cause-Specific Mortality In Taiwan’s Adult Population.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Po-Wei Chiu ◽  
Tsung Yu ◽  
Shikha Kukreti ◽  
Carol Strong
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Protective Factor ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
Dynamic Change ◽  
Normal Weight ◽  
Age And Gender ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Related Mortality

Abstract Background: A dynamic change in weight over time has been known as an important factor that impacts mortality risk. However, it is currently unknown how the dynamic change of body mass index (BMI) contributes to the cause-specific mortality risk.Methods: In this cohort study, we obtained data from a large prospective cohort study in Taiwan between 1998 and 2019, which was linked to National Death Registry for death information. The database accumulated 290,279 participants who were born before 1977. We excluded those who were less than 40 years old at 1998 (n=51,731), less than two waves follow-up (n=145,270), and who had ever been diagnosed at baseline with any of the following self-reported conditions: cancer, stroke (n=3392) with a final 89,886 participants.Results: This study shows that different trajectories are associated with mortality suggests that the mortality risk differs in each trajectory group and in each age and gender stratification. It appears that obesity is a protective factor in cancer-related mortality in females but not in males in the group of old age; low-normal weight is a risk factor in respiratory-related mortality in all participants.Conclusions: Our findings can be used to define the appropriate BMI in each age and gender groups and thereby earlier health interventions can be taken to avoid mortality.

scholarly journals Analysis on Effectiveness of Impact Based Heatwave Warning Considering Severity and Likelihood of Health Impacts in Seoul, Korea

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 2380
Author(s):  
Yeora Chae ◽  
Jongchul Park
Keyword(s):  
Additive Model ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Morbidity And Mortality ◽  
Health Impacts ◽  
Vulnerable Groups ◽  
Threshold Temperature ◽  
Threshold Temperatures ◽  
Level 1 ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Level 2

Many countries are operating a heatwave warning system (HWWS) to mitigate the impact of heatwaves on human health. The level of heatwave warning is normally determined by using the threshold temperature of heat-related morbidity or mortality. However, morbidity and mortality threshold temperatures have not been used together to account for the severity of health impacts. In this study, we developed a heatwave warning system with two different warning levels: Level-1 and Level-2, by analyzing the severity and likelihood of heat-related morbidity and mortality using the generalized additive model. The study particularly focuses on the cases in Seoul, South Korea, between 2011 and 2018. The study found that the threshold temperature for heat-related morbidity and mortality are 30 °C and 33 °C, respectively. Approximately 73.1% of heat-related patients visited hospitals when temperature was between 30 °C and 33 °C. We validated the developed HWWS by using both the threshold temperatures of morbidity and mortality. The area under curves (AUCs) of the proposed model were 0.74 and 0.86 at Level-1 and Level-2, respectively. On the other hand, the AUCs of the model using only the mortality threshold were 0.60 and 0.86 at Level-1 and Level-2, respectively. The AUCs of the model using only the morbidity threshold were 0.73 and 0.78 at Level-1 and Level-2, respectively. The results suggest that the updated HWWS can help to reduce the impact of heatwaves, particularly on vulnerable groups, by providing the customized information. This also indicates that the HWWS could effectively mitigate the risk of morbidity and mortality.

Elevated COVID-19 Related Mortality Risk Among Hospitalized Inpatients from Socially Vulnerable Census Tracts

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Avnish Sandhu ◽  
Steven J Korzeniewski ◽  
Jordan Polistico ◽  
Harshita Pinnamaneni ◽  
Sushmitha Nanja Reddy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Census Tracts ◽  
Related Mortality

scholarly journals Environmental Drivers and Age Trends in Site Productivity for Oak in Southern Poland

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 209
Author(s):  
Luiza Tymińska-Czabańska ◽  
Jarosław Socha ◽  
Marek Maj ◽  
Dominika Cywicka ◽  
Xo Viet Hoang Duong
Keyword(s):  
Nitrogen Deposition ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Environmental Indicators ◽  
Environmental Drivers ◽  
Site Productivity ◽  
Site Factors ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Si Model

Site productivity provides critical information for forest management practices and is a fundamental measure in forestry. It is determined using site index (SI) models, which are developed using two primary groups of methods, namely, phytocentric (plant-based) or geocentric (earth-based). Geocentric methods allow for direct site growth modelling, in which the SI is predicted using multiple environmental indicators. However, changes in non-static site factors—particularly nitrogen deposition and rising CO2 concentration—lead to an increase in site productivity, which may be visible as an age trend in the SI. In this study, we developed a geocentric SI model for oak. For the development of the SI model, we used data from 150 sample plots, representing a wide range of local topographic and site conditions. A generalized additive model was used to model site productivity. We found that the oak SI depended predominantly on physicochemical soil properties—mainly nitrogen, carbon, sand, and clay content. Additionally, the oak SI value was found to be slightly shaped by the topography, especially by altitude above sea level, and topographic position. We also detected a significant relationship between the SI and the age of oak stands, indicating the long-term increasing site productivity for oak, most likely caused by nitrogen deposition and changes in climatic conditions. The developed geocentric site productivity model for oak explained 77.2% of the SI variation.

scholarly journals Identification of Vulnerable Populations and Areas at Higher Risk of COVID-19-Related Mortality during the Early Stage of the Epidemic in the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (8) ◽  
pp. 4021
Author(s):  
Esteban Correa-Agudelo ◽  
Tesfaye B. Mersha ◽  
Adam J. Branscum ◽  
Neil J. MacKinnon ◽  
Diego F. Cuadros
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Vulnerable Populations ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
The United States ◽  
National Average ◽  
Health Determinants ◽  
White Population ◽  
Latino Population ◽  
Related Mortality

We characterized vulnerable populations located in areas at higher risk of COVID-19-related mortality and low critical healthcare capacity during the early stage of the epidemic in the United States. We analyze data obtained from a Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 database to assess the county-level spatial variation of COVID-19-related mortality risk during the early stage of the epidemic in relation to health determinants and health infrastructure. Overall, we identified highly populated and polluted areas, regional air hub areas, race minorities (non-white population), and Hispanic or Latino population with an increased risk of COVID-19-related death during the first phase of the epidemic. The 10 highest COVID-19 mortality risk areas in highly populated counties had on average a lower proportion of white population (48.0%) and higher proportions of black population (18.7%) and other races (33.3%) compared to the national averages of 83.0%, 9.1%, and 7.9%, respectively. The Hispanic and Latino population proportion was higher in these 10 counties (29.3%, compared to the national average of 9.3%). Counties with major air hubs had a 31% increase in mortality risk compared to counties with no airport connectivity. Sixty-eight percent of the counties with high COVID-19-related mortality risk also had lower critical care capacity than the national average. The disparity in health and environmental risk factors might have exacerbated the COVID-19-related mortality risk in vulnerable groups during the early stage of the epidemic.

Alcohol-Related Mortality Risk in Natural and Non-Natural Death Cases

2009 ◽  
Vol 54 (6) ◽  
pp. 1429-1432 ◽  
Author(s):  
Klára Törő ◽  
György Dunay ◽  
Kálmán Róna ◽  
Gabriella Klausz ◽  
Szilvia Fehér
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Natural Death ◽  
Death Cases ◽  
Related Mortality

scholarly journals The urban built environment and temperature-related mortality risk in a warming climate

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (8) ◽  
pp. e313
Author(s):  
Michail Zoumakis ◽  
Nikolaos Zoumakis ◽  
Michail Prevezanos
Keyword(s):  
Built Environment ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Related Mortality

Type 2 diabetes in patients with end‐stage kidney disease: influence on cardiovascular disease‐related mortality risk

2018 ◽  
Vol 209 (10) ◽  
pp. 440-446 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wai H Lim ◽  
David W Johnson ◽  
Carmel Hawley ◽  
Charmaine Lok ◽  
Kevan R Polkinghorne ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Type 2 Diabetes ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
End Stage Kidney Disease ◽  
End Stage ◽  
Related Mortality
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