scholarly journals Structural Panel Bayesian VAR with Multivariate Time-Varying Volatility to Jointly Deal with Structural Changes, Policy Regime Shifts, and Endogeneity Issues

Econometrics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 20
Author(s):  
Antonio Pacifico
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Unobserved Heterogeneity ◽  
Regime Shifts ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
International Spillovers ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Structural Panel ◽  
The Impact

This paper improves a standard Structural Panel Bayesian Vector Autoregression model in order to jointly deal with issues of endogeneity, because of omitted factors and unobserved heterogeneity, and volatility, because of policy regime shifts and structural changes. Bayesian methods are used to select the best model solution for examining if international spillovers come from multivariate volatility, time variation, or contemporaneous relationship. An empirical application among Central-Eastern and Western Europe economies is conducted to describe the performance of the methodology, with particular emphasis on the Great Recession and post-crisis periods. A simulated example is also addressed to highlight the performance of the estimating procedure. Findings from evidence-based forecasting are also addressed to evaluate the impact of an ongoing pandemic crisis on the global economy.

International trade: Research of the reasons for the fall

2019 ◽  
pp. 79-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. S. Nazarov ◽  
S. S. Lazaryan ◽  
I. V. Nikonov ◽  
A. I. Votinov
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Global Value Chains ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Negative Contribution ◽  
Basic Commodity ◽  
The Impact

The article assesses the impact of various factors on the growth rate of international trade. Many experts interpreted the cross-border flows of goods decline against the backdrop of a growing global economy as an alarming sign that indicates a slowdown in the processes of globalization. To determine the reasons for the dynamics of international trade, the decompositions of its growth rate were carried out and allowed to single out the effect of the dollar exchange rate, the commodities prices and global value chains on the change in the volume of trade. As a result, it was discovered that the most part of the dynamics of international trade is due to fluctuations in the exchange rate of the dollar and prices for basic commodity groups. The negative contribution of trade within global value chains in 2014 was also revealed. During the investigated period (2000—2014), such a picture was observed only in the crisis periods, which may indicate the beginning of structural changes in the world trade.

Women’s Activism in U.S. Labor Unions

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary Margaret Fonow ◽  
Suzanne Franzway
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Labor Movement ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Labor Rights ◽  
Women's Activism ◽  
Trade Union Movement ◽  
Labor Activism ◽  
Lgbt Community ◽  
The Impact

This chapter reviews the history and practices of women’s mobilization, within and through the trade union movement, aimed at the reconfiguration of structures and relations of power to achieve economic justice and labor rights for women. While there is a long history of women’s activism in the labor movement, the chapter focuses on the post–World War II period to the present in order to capture the impact of structural changes in the global economy on women’s work and labor activism. Women, the LGBT community, immigrants, and men of color are at the forefront of the activism that is revitalizing the U.S. labor movement. Activists are working to expand the scope of labor issues beyond the workplace by borrowing discourses from other social movements, developing new mobilizing networks, organizing strategies and repertories of action, and forging coalitions and alliances across movements and even across national boundaries.

Chinese OFDI in Europe under the Guidance of BRI — A Focus on China–CEE Economic Relations

2018 ◽  
Vol 01 (04) ◽  
pp. 1850022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Congcong Jiang ◽  
Christoph Lattemann
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Foreign Market ◽  
Economic Incentives ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Chinese Investment ◽  
Changing Patterns ◽  
Two Phases ◽  
The Impact

China has been actively integrating itself in the global economy through Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and increasing trade flows. In order to further expand its foreign market ambition and reinforce itself as a leader in the world economic system, China unleashed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). One of the main economic incentives behind this initiative is to strengthen China’s integration with Central and Eastern European (CEE) markets. In recent years, an emerging trend for Chinese investors to invest in CEE countries such as Poland can be observed. The aim of this research is to analyze the changing patterns and motives of Chinese Outbound FDI (OFDI) to Europe during the period of 2009–2017 under the guidance of BRI. To explore the heterogeneity of Chinese investments behavior within Europe, this paper summarizes the apparent characteristics of Chinese investment patterns in Western Europe and the CEE region. We show that BRI has — against all expectations — no impact on Chinese investment in the CEE region but — in line with expectations — Chinese investors have changed their motives to invest in CEE countries with a shift towards the service sector. To investigate the impact of BRI on Chinese investors, the period of study is divided into two phases: (1) 2009–2013: period before the proposal of BRI and (2) 2014–2017: period after the initiation of BRI. Then the rationale behind the observed differences is examined in detail.

scholarly journals Global Fiscal Consolidation

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 124-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Warwick J. McKibbin ◽  
Andrew B. Stoeckel
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Domestic Economies ◽  
The U.S

The buildup in government debt in response to the “great recession,” has raised a number of policy dilemmas for individual countries as well as the world as a whole. The recent need for a change of fiscal policy stance has fuelled debates about the impact of fiscal consolidation on domestic economies that are tightening, the flow-on effects to the world economy, and also about how much tightening there should be and how quickly it should happen. This paper explores these issues in a global framework focusing on the national and global consequences of coordinated fiscal consolidation. It explores the implications this fiscal adjustment might have on country risk premia and what happens if all countries coordinate their fiscal adjustment except the United States. A coordinated fiscal consolidation in the industrial world that is not accompanied by U.S. actions is likely to lead to a substantial worsening of trade imbalances globally as the release of capital in fiscally contracting economies flows into the U.S. economy, appreciates the U.S. dollar, and worsens the current account position of the United States. The scale of this change is likely to be sufficient to substantially increase the probability of a trade war between the United States and other economies. To avoid this outcome, a coordinated fiscal adjustment is clearly in the interest of the global economy.

scholarly journals Automation vs. Jobs

2012 ◽  
Vol 134 (04) ◽  
pp. 22-27
Author(s):  
Alan S. Brown
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Digital Technology ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
The United States ◽  
Information And Communications Technology ◽  
Communications Technology ◽  
Working Adults ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Impact

This article examines the impact of automation on jobs. Since the end of the Great Recession in June 2009, the GDP of the United States has grown 75% as fast as its average between 1948 and 2007. Ordinarily, such growth would spur companies to hire more workers. However, the fact is that overall unemployment has hovered above 9% for most of the past three years and remains stubbornly high. The percentage of working adults is at its lowest level since 1983, when women were still entering the workforce. Instead of hiring workers, companies are now investing in equipment and technology, which rebounded quickly after the recession. Some economists contend that advanced information and communications technology is transforming the economy by capturing jobs that only humans could have done before. They even consider digital technology when looking at the potential causes of unemployment. They also believe this is a sign of deeper structural changes in the economy.

scholarly journals Gender Pay Gap in the Banking Sector: Has the Great Recession changed the obvious?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nasiba Usmanova
Keyword(s):  
Organizational Performance ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Gender Discrimination ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Wage Gap ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Pay Gap ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTIn a highly competitive global economy, employee diversity offers a proven route for innovation and organizational performance. While it is generally accepted that the gender should be no barrier on equal pay for work requiring equal skills, efforts, responsibilities, and working conditions, women are still under-represented at all levels of the companies around the world. Furthermore, unequal pay for equal job implemented by both qualified men and women results in gender discrimination in the career development of women in the labor market. Gender discrimination holds capable women from further personal growth and contribution to economic development. This problem particularly revals itself in the banking and financial sector. This study examines the impact of the Great Recession on the gender wage gap. Using the U.S. Census American Community Survey microdata for bank employees from 2001 to 2017, the study will analyze the changes in the pay gap between male and female employees in the financial sector, before and after the Great Recession.

Occupational mobility, employment transitions and job quality in Europe: The impact of the Great Recession

2020 ◽  
pp. 0143831X2093193
Author(s):  
Martina Bisello ◽  
Vincenzo Maccarrone ◽  
Enrique Fernández-Macías
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Occupational Mobility ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Mobility Patterns ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Working Age ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

This article investigates employment and occupational transitions that are behind structural changes in European labour markets before, during and after the Great Recession. The study introduces a new methodological approach for studying labour market flows considering the quality of the jobs from and into which the flows are taking place by differentiating them into wage quintiles. The analysis compares six European countries that are usually associated with different institutional clusters – France, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden and the UK. It tracks the transitions of their working age populations into and out of inactivity, unemployment and employment (in five wage categories). The findings show the extent to which employment and occupational mobility patterns differ across European countries, resulting in very different outcomes in terms of employment opportunities and life chances. Results also suggest that the countries studied fall into three distinct categories based on the degree of occupational mobility characterising their economies.

Forecasting US movies box office performances in Turkey using machine learning algorithms

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (5) ◽  
pp. 6579-6590
Author(s):  
Sandy Çağlıyor ◽  
Başar Öztayşi ◽  
Selime Sezgin
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Box Office ◽  
Industry Forecast ◽  
The Impact

The motion picture industry is one of the largest industries worldwide and has significant importance in the global economy. Considering the high stakes and high risks in the industry, forecast models and decision support systems are gaining importance. Several attempts have been made to estimate the theatrical performance of a movie before or at the early stages of its release. Nevertheless, these models are mostly used for predicting domestic performances and the industry still struggles to predict box office performances in overseas markets. In this study, the aim is to design a forecast model using different machine learning algorithms to estimate the theatrical success of US movies in Turkey. From various sources, a dataset of 1559 movies is constructed. Firstly, independent variables are grouped as pre-release, distributor type, and international distribution based on their characteristic. The number of attendances is discretized into three classes. Four popular machine learning algorithms, artificial neural networks, decision tree regression and gradient boosting tree and random forest are employed, and the impact of each group is observed by compared by the performance models. Then the number of target classes is increased into five and eight and results are compared with the previously developed models in the literature.

Monetary policy and the effect of the transfer of oil prices to inflation

2020 ◽  
pp. 41-50
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
I. D. Medvedev
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
The Impact

The paper examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation, as well as the impact of the choice of the monetary policy regime on the strength of this influence. We used dynamic models on panel data for the countries of the world for the period from 2000 to 2017. It is shown that mainly the impact of changes in oil prices on inflation is carried out through the channel of exchange rate. The paper demonstrates the influence of the transition to inflation targeting on the nature of the relationship between oil price shocks and inflation. This effect is asymmetrical: during periods of rising oil prices, inflation targeting reduces the effect of the transfer of oil prices, limiting negative effects of shock. During periods of decline in oil prices, this monetary policy regime, in contrast, contributes to a stronger transfer, helping to reduce inflation.

The influence of inflation targeting on the pass-through effect of the exchange rate

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-84
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
Yu. I. Yakimova
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

The paper studies the impact of the transition to the inflation targeting regime on the magnitude of the pass-through effect of the exchange rate to prices. We analyze cross-country panel data on developed and developing countries. It is shown that the transition to this regime of monetary policy contributes to a significant reduction in both the short- and long-term pass-through effects. This decline is stronger in developing countries. We identify the main channels that ensure the influence of the monetary policy regime on the pass-through effect, and examine their performance. In addition, we analyze the data of time series for Russia. It was concluded that even there the transition to inflation targeting led to a decrease in the dependence of the level of inflation on fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document