scholarly journals Microgrid-Level Energy Management Approach Based on Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Speed and Solar Irradiance

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 1487 ◽  
Author(s):  
Musaed Alhussein ◽  
Syed Irtaza Haider ◽  
Khursheed Aurangzeb
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Energy Resources ◽  
Level Energy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Smart Community ◽  
Different Climates

Background: The Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) are beneficial in reducing the electricity bills of the end customers in a smart community by enabling them to generate electricity for their own use. In the past, various studies have shown that owing to a lack of awareness and connectivity, end customers cannot fully exploit the benefits of DERs. However, with the tremendous progress in communication technologies, the Internet of Things (IoT), Big Data (BD), machine learning, and deep learning, the potential benefits of DERs can be fully achieved, although a significant issue in forecasting the generated renewable energy is the intermittent nature of these energy resources. The machine learning and deep learning models can be trained using BD gathered over a long period of time to solve this problem. The trained models can be used to predict the generated energy through green energy resources by accurately forecasting the wind speed and solar irradiance. Methods: We propose an efficient approach for microgrid-level energy management in a smart community based on the integration of DERs and the forecasting wind speed and solar irradiance using a deep learning model. A smart community that consists of several smart homes and a microgrid is considered. In addition to the possibility of obtaining energy from the main grid, the microgrid is equipped with DERs in the form of wind turbines and photovoltaic (PV) cells. In this work, we consider several machine learning models as well as persistence and smart persistence models for forecasting of the short-term wind speed and solar irradiance. We then choose the best model as a baseline and compare its performance with our proposed multiheaded convolutional neural network model. Results: Using the data of San Francisco, New York, and Los Vegas from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) as a case study, the results show that our proposed model performed significantly better than the baseline model in forecasting the wind speed and solar irradiance. The results show that for the wind speed prediction, we obtained 44.94%, 46.12%, and 2.25% error reductions in root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE), respectively. In the case of solar irradiance prediction, we obtained 7.68%, 54.29%, and 0.14% error reductions in RMSE, mean bias error (MBE), and sMAPE, respectively. We evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model on different time horizons and different climates. The results indicate that for wind speed forecast, different climates do not have a significant impact on the performance of the proposed model. However, for solar irradiance forecast, we obtained different error reductions for different climates. This discrepancy is certainly due to the cloud formation processes, which are very different for different sites with different climates. Moreover, a detailed analysis of the generation estimation and electricity bill reduction indicates that the proposed framework will help the smart community to achieve an annual reduction of up to 38% in electricity bills by integrating DERs into the microgrid. Conclusions: The simulation results indicate that our proposed framework is appropriate for approximating the energy generated through DERs and for reducing the electricity bills of a smart community. The proposed framework is not only suitable for different time horizons (up to 4 h ahead) but for different climates.

scholarly journals Short-Term Firm-Level Energy-Consumption Forecasting for Energy-Intensive Manufacturing: A Comparison of Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models

Algorithms ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 274 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Maria N. C. Ribeiro ◽  
Pedro Rafael X. do Carmo ◽  
Iago Richard Rodrigues ◽  
Djamel Sadok ◽  
Theo Lynn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Level Energy ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Case Site

To minimise environmental impact, to avoid regulatory penalties, and to improve competitiveness, energy-intensive manufacturing firms require accurate forecasts of their energy consumption so that precautionary and mitigation measures can be taken. Deep learning is widely touted as a superior analytical technique to traditional artificial neural networks, machine learning, and other classical time-series models due to its high dimensionality and problem-solving capabilities. Despite this, research on its application in demand-side energy forecasting is limited. We compare two benchmarks (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and an existing manual technique used at the case site) against three deep-learning models (simple Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)) and two machine-learning models (Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Random Forest) for short-term load forecasting (STLF) using data from a Brazilian thermoplastic resin manufacturing plant. We use the grid search method to identify the best configurations for each model and then use Diebold–Mariano testing to confirm the results. The results suggests that the legacy approach used at the case site is the worst performing and that the GRU model outperformed all other models tested.

scholarly journals Short-Term Firm-Level Energy Consumption Forecasting for Energy-Intensive Manufacturing: A Comparison of Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea MariaN.C. Ribeiro ◽  
Pedro RafaelX.do Carmo ◽  
Iago Rodrigues ◽  
Djamel Sadok ◽  
Theo Lynn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Level Energy ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Case Site

To minimise environmental impact, avoid regulatory penalties, and improve competitiveness, energy-intensive manufacturing firms require accurate forecasts of their energy consumption so that precautionary and mitigation measures can be taken. Deep learning is widely touted as a superior analytical technique to traditional artificial neural networks, machine learning, and other classical time series models due to its high dimensionality and problem solving capabilities. Despite this, research on its application in demand-side energy forecasting is limited. We compare two benchmarks (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and an existing manual technique used at the case site) against three deep learning models (simple Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)) and three machine learning models (Support Vector Regression (SVM), Random Forest, and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN)) for short term load forecasting (STLF) using data from a Brazilian thermoplastic resin manufacturing plant. We use the grid search method to identify the best configurations for each model, and then use Diebold-Mariano testing to confirm the results. Results suggests that the legacy approach used at the case site is the worst performing, and that the GRU model outperformed all other models tested.

scholarly journals Application of Rough and Fuzzy Set Theory for Prediction of Stochastic Wind Speed Data Using Long Short-Term Memory

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 924
Author(s):  
Moslem Imani ◽  
Hoda Fakour ◽  
Wen-Hau Lan ◽  
Huan-Chin Kao ◽  
Chi Ming Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Set Theory ◽  
Rough Set ◽  
Fuzzy Set Theory ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Deep Learning Model

Despite the great significance of precisely forecasting the wind speed for development of the new and clean energy technology and stable grid operators, the stochasticity of wind speed makes the prediction a complex and challenging task. For improving the security and economic performance of power grids, accurate short-term wind power forecasting is crucial. In this paper, a deep learning model (Long Short-term Memory (LSTM)) has been proposed for wind speed prediction. Knowing that wind speed time series is nonlinear stochastic, the mutual information (MI) approach was used to find the best subset from the data by maximizing the joint MI between subset and target output. To enhance the accuracy and reduce input characteristics and data uncertainties, rough set and interval type-2 fuzzy set theory are combined in the proposed deep learning model. Wind speed data from an international airport station in the southern coast of Iran Bandar-Abbas City was used as the original input dataset for the optimized deep learning model. Based on the statistical results, the rough set LSTM (RST-LSTM) model showed better prediction accuracy than fuzzy and original LSTM, as well as traditional neural networks, with the lowest error for training and testing datasets in different time horizons. The suggested model can support the optimization of the control approach and the smooth procedure of power system. The results confirm the superior capabilities of deep learning techniques for wind speed forecasting, which could also inspire new applications in meteorology assessment.

scholarly journals Air pollution forecasting application based on deep learning model and optimization algorithm

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Azim Heydari ◽  
Meysam Majidi Nezhad ◽  
Davide Astiaso Garcia ◽  
Farshid Keynia ◽  
Livio De Santoli
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Combined Cycle ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

AbstractAir pollution monitoring is constantly increasing, giving more and more attention to its consequences on human health. Since Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) are the major pollutants, various models have been developed on predicting their potential damages. Nevertheless, providing precise predictions is almost impossible. In this study, a new hybrid intelligent model based on long short-term memory (LSTM) and multi-verse optimization algorithm (MVO) has been developed to predict and analysis the air pollution obtained from Combined Cycle Power Plants. In the proposed model, long short-term memory model is a forecaster engine to predict the amount of produced NO2 and SO2 by the Combined Cycle Power Plant, where the MVO algorithm is used to optimize the LSTM parameters in order to achieve a lower forecasting error. In addition, in order to evaluate the proposed model performance, the model has been applied using real data from a Combined Cycle Power Plant in Kerman, Iran. The datasets include wind speed, air temperature, NO2, and SO2 for five months (May–September 2019) with a time step of 3-h. In addition, the model has been tested based on two different types of input parameters: type (1) includes wind speed, air temperature, and different lagged values of the output variables (NO2 and SO2); type (2) includes just lagged values of the output variables (NO2 and SO2). The obtained results show that the proposed model has higher accuracy than other combined forecasting benchmark models (ENN-PSO, ENN-MVO, and LSTM-PSO) considering different network input variables. Graphic abstract

Classification of plant diseases using machine and deep learning

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 491-508
Author(s):  
Monika Lamba ◽  
Yogita Gigras ◽  
Anuradha Dhull
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Plant Disease ◽  
Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Early Recognition ◽  
Activation Function ◽  
Plant Diseases ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Specificity And Sensitivity ◽  
Proposed Model

Abstract Detection of plant disease has a crucial role in better understanding the economy of India in terms of agricultural productivity. Early recognition and categorization of diseases in plants are very crucial as it can adversely affect the growth and development of species. Numerous machine learning methods like SVM (support vector machine), random forest, KNN (k-nearest neighbor), Naïve Bayes, decision tree, etc., have been exploited for recognition, discovery, and categorization of plant diseases; however, the advancement of machine learning by DL (deep learning) is supposed to possess tremendous potential in enhancing the accuracy. This paper proposed a model comprising of Auto-Color Correlogram as image filter and DL as classifiers with different activation functions for plant disease. This proposed model is implemented on four different datasets to solve binary and multiclass subcategories of plant diseases. Using the proposed model, results achieved are better, obtaining 99.4% accuracy and 99.9% sensitivity for binary class and 99.2% accuracy for multiclass. It is proven that the proposed model outperforms other approaches, namely LibSVM, SMO (sequential minimal optimization), and DL with activation function softmax and softsign in terms of F-measure, recall, MCC (Matthews correlation coefficient), specificity and sensitivity.

Short Term Wind Speed Forecasting : A Machine Learning Based Predictive Analytics

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annael J. Domingo ◽  
Felan Carlo Garcia ◽  
Mary Lai Salvana ◽  
Nathaniel J. C. Libatique ◽  
Gregory L. Tangonan
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Predictive Analytics ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting

scholarly journals Content Noise Detection Model Using Deep Learning in Web Forums

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 5074
Author(s):  
Jiyoung Woo ◽  
Jaeseok Yun
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Detection Model ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Web Forum ◽  
Web Forums ◽  
Conventional Machine ◽  
Text Features ◽  
Deep Learning Model

Spam posts in web forum discussions cause user inconvenience and lower the value of the web forum as an open source of user opinion. In this regard, as the importance of a web post is evaluated in terms of the number of involved authors, noise distorts the analysis results by adding unnecessary data to the opinion analysis. Here, in this work, an automatic detection model for spam posts in web forums using both conventional machine learning and deep learning is proposed. To automatically differentiate between normal posts and spam, evaluators were asked to recognize spam posts in advance. To construct the machine learning-based model, text features from posted content using text mining techniques from the perspective of linguistics were extracted, and supervised learning was performed to distinguish content noise from normal posts. For the deep learning model, raw text including and excluding special characters was utilized. A comparison analysis on deep neural networks using the two different recurrent neural network (RNN) models of the simple RNN and long short-term memory (LSTM) network was also performed. Furthermore, the proposed model was applied to two web forums. The experimental results indicate that the deep learning model affords significant improvements over the accuracy of conventional machine learning associated with text features. The accuracy of the proposed model using LSTM reaches 98.56%, and the precision and recall of the noise class reach 99% and 99.53%, respectively.

scholarly journals Forecasting Day-Ahead Hourly Photovoltaic Power Generation Using Convolutional Self-Attention Based Long Short-Term Memory

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 4017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dukhwan Yu ◽  
Wonik Choi ◽  
Myoungsoo Kim ◽  
Ling Liu
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Local Context ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Pv Power Generation

The problem of Photovoltaic (PV) power generation forecasting is becoming crucial as the penetration level of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) increases in microgrids and Virtual Power Plants (VPPs). In order to improve the stability of power systems, a fair amount of research has been proposed for increasing prediction performance in practical environments through statistical, machine learning, deep learning, and hybrid approaches. Despite these efforts, the problem of forecasting PV power generation remains to be challenging in power system operations since existing methods show limited accuracy and thus are not sufficiently practical enough to be widely deployed. Many existing methods using long historical data suffer from the long-term dependency problem and are not able to produce high prediction accuracy due to their failure to fully utilize all features of long sequence inputs. To address this problem, we propose a deep learning-based PV power generation forecasting model called Convolutional Self-Attention based Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). By using the convolutional self-attention mechanism, we can significantly improve prediction accuracy by capturing the local context of the data and generating keys and queries that fit the local context. To validate the applicability of the proposed model, we conduct extensive experiments on both PV power generation forecasting using a real world dataset and power consumption forecasting. The experimental results of power generation forecasting using the real world datasets show that the MAPEs of the proposed model are much lower, in fact by 7.7%, 6%, 3.9% compared to the Deep Neural Network (DNN), LSTM and LSTM with the canonical self-attention, respectively. As for power consumption forecasting, the proposed model exhibits 32%, 17% and 44% lower Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) than the DNN, LSTM and LSTM with the canonical self-attention, respectively.

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