scholarly journals The Heterogeneous Interconnections between Supply or Demand Side and Oil Risks

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 2226 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaoke Liao ◽  
Zhenghui Li ◽  
Ziqing Du ◽  
Yue Liu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Wavelet Coherence ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Demand Side ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Space Capacity ◽  
Over Time

Due to the crucial implication of oil risks for economic growth and policy making, the aim of this paper is to explore the heterogeneous interconnections of supply or demand in oil risks over time horizons and different countries. Specifically, we first examine the correlation of supply or demand in oil return risks and show the relationships in different countries based on wavelet coherence. Furthermore, we explore the time-varying interconnections between supply- or demand-side and oil return risks, as well as oil producers and demand countries. The empirical results show that the correlation between supply and oil return risks is relatively stable, whereas the linkage between demand and oil return risks shows greater volatility due to the impact of specific events. Further study indicates that there are heterogeneous interconnections between supply- or demand-side and oil return risks over sample periods. Specifically, the sign of response could be divided into four phases, i.e., 1997–2002, 2002–2010, 2010–2013 and 2014–2018. In addition, the interconnections of the demand side could be divided into three phases due to the sign of it. What is more, the dynamic interconnections of oil producers’ or countries’ demands behave quite heterogeneously in different countries. Thus policymakers should focus on the coordination level and space capacity in the global crude oil market.

Poverty under Planning

2021 ◽  
pp. 254-295
Author(s):  
K. L. Datta
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
State Level ◽  
The State ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Methodological Issues ◽  
Poor Households ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

Describing the manner in which poverty is incorporated as a parameter in planning, this chapter delineates the use of poverty estimates in policy-making, and in tracking progress of development over time and space. It dwells on the methodological issues related to measurement of poverty, and identification of poor households, comprehensively summarizing the debates surrounding it. Viewing the pace of poverty reduction as the ultimate test of planning, it quantifies the level and change in poverty since the 1970s. It analyses the state of poverty at national and state level, and assesses the impact of economic growth and income redistributive measures on poverty reduction. It brings out that the phenomenal decline in poverty in the reforms-era took place exclusively due to increase in income, eventuated by high rate of economic growth. Finally, it states that despite the decline, poverty remains a major concern.

Has Aid Helped in Pakistan?

1997 ◽  
Vol 36 (4II) ◽  
pp. 947-957 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahrukh Rafi Khan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Negative Association ◽  
Causal Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

This paper has a two-fold objective: first, to examine the terms on which Pakistan receives aid and whether its debt situation is sustainable, and second, to examine the impact of aid and debt on economic growth. It is found that there is little encouraging that can be said about how the terms on which Pakistan has received aid over time have changed, and its current debt situation is not sustainable. Also reported is the analysis done elsewhere which shows that aid has a negative (Granger) causal impact on GDP, and aid has a robust negative impact on economic growth after controlling for supplyside shocks. We provide various reasons for this negative association.

scholarly journals Effects of Time-Varying Parent Input on Children’s Language Outcomes Differ for Vocabulary and Syntax

2021 ◽  
pp. 095679762097055
Author(s):  
Catriona Silvey ◽  
Özlem Ece Demir-Lira ◽  
Susan Goldin-Meadow ◽  
Stephen W. Raudenbush
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Tests ◽  
Child Outcomes ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Syntactic Complexity ◽  
Language Outcomes ◽  
Optimal Sequence ◽  
Linguistic Input ◽  
Language Input ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

Early linguistic input is a powerful predictor of children’s language outcomes. We investigated two novel questions about this relationship: Does the impact of language input vary over time, and does the impact of time-varying language input on child outcomes differ for vocabulary and for syntax? Using methods from epidemiology to account for baseline and time-varying confounding, we predicted 64 children’s outcomes on standardized tests of vocabulary and syntax in kindergarten from their parents’ vocabulary and syntax input when the children were 14 and 30 months old. For vocabulary, children whose parents provided diverse input earlier as well as later in development were predicted to have the highest outcomes. For syntax, children whose parents’ input substantially increased in syntactic complexity over time were predicted to have the highest outcomes. The optimal sequence of parents’ linguistic input for supporting children’s language acquisition thus varies for vocabulary and for syntax.

scholarly journals A TIME-VARYING MARKOV-SWITCHING MODEL FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH

2015 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 1550-1580 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno Morier ◽  
Vladimir Kühl Teles
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Transition Matrix ◽  
Markov Switching ◽  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Markov Switching Model ◽  
Investment Level ◽  
Stable Growth ◽  
Over Time

This paper investigates patterns of variation in economic growth across and within countries using a time-varying transition matrix Markov-switching approach. The model developed here explains the dynamics of growth based on a collection of different states that countries pass into and out of over time; in addition, these states are characterized by their own submodels and growth patterns. The transition matrix among the different states varies over time—depending on the conditioning variables of each country—with a linear dynamic for each state. We develop a generalization of Diebold's EM algorithm and estimate a sample model in a panel with a transition matrix conditioned on institutional quality and the investment level. We find three states of growth: stable growth, miraculous growth, and stagnation. The results show that institutional quality is an important determinant of long-term growth, whereas the investment level plays a variety of roles: it contributes positively in countries with high-quality institutions but is of little relevance in countries with medium- or low-quality institutions.

scholarly journals Inflation and Economic Growth: a Review of The International Literature

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 41-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Foluso A. Akinsola ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Country Specific

This paper surveys the existing literature on the relationship between inflation and economic growth in developed and developing countries, highlighting the theoretical and empirical indications. The study finds that the impact of inflation on economic growth varies from country to country and over time. The study also finds that the results from these studies depend on country‑specific characteristics, the data set used, and the methodology employed. On balance, the study finds overwhelming support in favour of a negative relationship between inflation and growth, especially in developed economies. However, there is still much controversy about the specific threshold level of inflation that is appropriate for growth. Most previous studies on this subject just assume a unidirectional causal relationsship between inflation and economic growth. To our knowledge, this may be the first review of its kind to survey, in detail, the existing research on the relationship between inflation and economic growth in developed and developing countries.

scholarly journals THE SAVINGS-TRADE-FISCAL GAP MODEL: APPLICATION IN SELECTED WEST AFRICAN STATES

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Efayena Oba Obukohwo ◽  
Buzugbe Patricia Ngozi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
West African ◽  
Gap Model ◽  
African Countries ◽  
The Impact

With most African economies experiencing adverse economic misalignment in recent times, the need of enhancing the growth process cannot be overemphasized. Using a typical Savings-Trade-Fiscal Gap Model, the paper employed panel data estimation method to examine the impact of savings, trade and fiscal gap on economic growth of 15 West African countries. The paper finds a negative relationship between net trade and economic growth, while savings and government expenditure impacts positively on economic performance. The paper thus, among recommended that it is appropriate for all countries to eliminate fiscal dominance from monetary policy-making, reduce public debt and establish institutions that promote and encourage counter-cyclical fiscal policy, develop their financial systems, establish credibility in fiscal and monetary policy-making as well as encourage trade.

scholarly journals Measuring the Dynamic Risk of Further Offending: A Feasibility Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen Hodges ◽  
Kevin Fahey
Keyword(s):  
Social Services ◽  
Feasibility Study ◽  
Justice System ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Criminal History ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Policy And Practice ◽  
The Core ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

BackgroundYoung people who have offended were, until recently, assessed using the Core ASSET Profile – a tool which determined their likelihood of reoffending based on their criminal history and practitioner scores across 12 domains. The repeated assessments provide a set of data for each individual which can be used to model how their risk of further offending varies over time. Having conducted an initial proof of concept study, this work explores the potential of extending the range of ‘risk’ and ‘protective’ factors using anonymised linked data held within the SAIL Databank. Main AimThe feasibility study is designed to establish the potential for using administrative data to develop a more sensitive assessment tool for use in the youth justice system. Specifically, the study explores the impact of being care experienced and of subsequent system contact in elevating the risk of further offending. ApproachA series of Bayesian hierarchical models will be generated which mimic the features of the Core ASSET Profile under the Scaled Approach. These include a range of time-varying and non-time varying variables matched to the individual, drawn from education, health and social services datasets as well as their court and offending records. ResultsThe anticipated findings will advance our understanding of how the likelihood of further offending varies over time for different groups, and how further system contact increases the risk. This will enable the complexity of young people’s real lives to be explored, and hence appropriate and timely interventions to be developed. ConclusionModelling under a Bayesian framework affords the opportunity to generate robust analysis based on smaller datasets. Findings have significant implications for policy and practice, particularly in the context of assessment processes across the justice system and social welfare.

scholarly journals Globalization and its Socio-Economic Impact on Pakistan

2018 ◽  
Vol I (I) ◽  
pp. 13-23
Author(s):  
Faria Zeeshan ◽  
Muhammad Ali Baig
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Focal Point ◽  
Moral Norms ◽  
Major Focus ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Norms And Values ◽  
Effective Policy ◽  
Socio Economic Impact ◽  
The Impact

The study involves a brief yet insightful discussion on the concept of globalization, covering different aspects of globalization. The focal point is to consider that globalization is not a new phenomenon. It further explains that globalization has taken new dimensions along with the impact that it has on the economy and society of Pakistan. The impact of globalization on every economy differs depending on its social, political and economic dimensions. The paper emphasizes on the fact that although Pakistan achieved certain gains from globalization, but the adverse effects outweighs the positive effects in certain areas. It clearly mentions how globalization has resulted in a degradation of moral norms and values of Pakistani society and how has globalization affected economic growth in Pakistan with a major focus has on trade. It concludes with how these challenges can be overcome by holding governments in charge of effective policy making.

scholarly journals The Dynamic Impacts of the Global Shipping Market under the Background of Oil Price Fluctuations and Emergencies

Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Zihan Chen ◽  
Xiaokong Zhang ◽  
Jian Chai
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Time Points ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time ◽  
China’S Economy

With growing uncertainty about the evolution of the global landscape, it is of great practical significance to explore the nonlinear dynamic adjustment relationship among the world oil market, the global bulk shipping market, the stock market, and economic growth in China. This paper applied the TVP-SV-VAR model and selected quarterly data from 1998 to 2020 to explore the dynamics. The results indicated that the impact intensity of BDI on China’s economy had a “positive” to “negative” change in different lag periods. This was mainly due to the fact that the negative impact of higher freight prices on China’s economy outweighed the positive impact of higher trade volumes on China’s economy. The impact intensity of BDI on GDP had a distinct medium- to long-term effect. A positive BDI shock had a dampening effect on stock prices in the short and medium term, while a positive BDI shock could promote stock market prosperity in the long-term perspective. The impulse responses of SSE and GDP to BDI showed that the external shipping market shocks to China’s stock market and economic growth gradually became smaller over time. For impulse response at three different time points, the impact intensity of the BDI to GDP varied at different time points, with the largest shock during the financial crisis in 2008, followed by the shock during the oil price crash in 2014, and the smallest during the COVID-19 epidemic. This demonstrated that the external shipping market’s influence on Chinese economic growth and stock market has gradually weakened over time, illustrating the enhancement of Chinese risk-resilience capacity.

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