scholarly journals Evaluating the Impact of Fossil Fuel Vehicle Exit on the Oil Demand in China

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (14) ◽  
pp. 2771
Author(s):  
Ziru Feng ◽  
Tian Cai ◽  
Kangli Xiang ◽  
Chenxi Xiang ◽  
Lei Hou
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Gompertz Model ◽  
Environmental Crisis ◽  
Vehicle Ownership ◽  
Fuel Demand ◽  
New Energy ◽  
Oil Demand ◽  
Ownership Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
New Energy Vehicles

Vehicle ownership is one of the most important factors affecting fuel demand. Based on the forecast of China’s vehicle ownership, this paper estimates China’s fuel demand in 2035 and explores the impact of new energy vehicles replacing fossil fuel vehicles. The paper contributes to the existing literature by taking into account the heterogeneity of provinces when using the Gompertz model to forecast future vehicle ownership. On that basis, the fuel demand of each province in 2035 is calculated. The results show that: (1) The vehicle ownership rate of each province conforms to the S-shape trend with the growth of real GDP per capita. At present, most provinces are at a stage of accelerating growth. However, the time for the vehicle ownership rate of each province to reach the inflection point is quite different. (2) Without considering the replacement of new energy vehicles, China’s auto fuel demand is expected to be 746.69 million tonnes (Mt) in 2035. Guangdong, Henan, and Shandong are the top three provinces with the highest fuel demand due to economic and demographic factors. The fuel demand is expected to be 76.76, 64.91, and 63.95 Mt, respectively. (3) Considering the replacement of new energy vehicles, China’s fuel demand in 2035 will be 709.35, 634.68, and 560.02 Mt, respectively, under the scenarios of slow, medium, and fast substitution—and the replacement levels are 37.34, 112.01, and 186.67 Mt, respectively. Under the scenario of rapid substitution, the reduction in fuel demand will reach 52.2% of China’s net oil imports in 2016. Therefore, the withdrawal of fuel vehicles will greatly reduce the oil demand and the dependence on foreign oil of China. Faced with the dual pressure of environmental crisis and energy crisis, the forecast results of this paper provide practical reference for policy makers to rationally design the future fuel vehicle exit plan and solve related environmental issues.

scholarly journals The impact of the reduction of consumption subsidies on the industrial chain of new energy vehicles

2021 ◽  
Vol 235 ◽  
pp. 01002
Author(s):  
Xiaohua Mao
Keyword(s):  
Chinese Government ◽  
Industry Chain ◽  
Industrial Chain ◽  
New Energy ◽  
New Energy Vehicle ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
D Investment ◽  
Vehicle Market ◽  
New Energy Vehicles

In recent years, in order to promote the independent development of the new energy vehicle industry, Chinese government has decided to reduce the consumption subsidies for new energy vehicles until the subsidies are completely withdrawn. The reduction of consumption subsidy has a great impact on the production and sales of new energy vehicles in the whole vehicle market. However, does the reduction of this subsidy also have an impact on other enterprises in the new energy vehicles industry chain? This paper tests this problem using data from 2016 to 2018, and finds, through empirical analysis, that during the period of subsidy decline, the profitability of component enterprises is significantly positively correlated with this subsidies, while the r&d investment of enterprises is significantly negatively correlated with this subsidies. The results show that in terms of profitability, the reduction of consumer subsidies not only has an impact on the whole vehicle industry of new energy vehicles, but also has an adverse impact on the core component companies in the industrial chain. However, in terms of r&d, the reduction of subsidies has more negatively strengthened the input and attention of R&D in component companies.

scholarly journals China’s Provincial Vehicle Ownership Forecast and Analysis of the Causes Influencing the Trend

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (14) ◽  
pp. 3928 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Ma ◽  
Manhua Wu ◽  
Xiujuan Tian ◽  
Guanheng Zheng ◽  
Qinchuan Du ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Gompertz Model ◽  
Sustainable Transportation ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Employment Rate ◽  
Vehicle Ownership ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Transport Problems ◽  
The Impact

The growth of vehicle ownership not only brings opportunity for the economy, but also brings environment and transport problems, which is not good for sustainable transportation. It is of great significance to build supporting infrastructure and other services based on accurate forecasts of vehicle ownership in various provinces because of the variance of economic development stages, the carrying capacity of resources, and different degrees of transport planning in each province. We used the Gompertz model in order to predict China’s provincial vehicle ownership from 2018 to 2050. Considering the impact of the population structure, we summed up the growth rate of GDP per labor, the growth rate of population and the growth rate of employment rate to get the growth rate of GDP and then the GDP per capita of each province. We found that the vehicle ownership in each province will grow rapidly in the next 30 years; however, the change in the ranking of vehicle ownership among provinces varies. The ranking of some provinces with high or middle ranking now will decline in the following years, especially Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Xinjiang. While the ranking of some provinces that locates in the middle and low ranking now will increase, such as Chongqing, Hubei, Anhui, Sichuan, Heilongjiang, Jiangxi, Hunan and Guangxi. We also investigate the reasons that affect the trend in each province and we find that the suitable vehicle growth pattern of each province, the stage of economic development and government policy, which are related to the growth rate of GDP per labor, employment rate, and GDP per capita, can affect vehicle ownership in the future.

scholarly journals Research on electric vehicle ownership prediction based on BASS model: A case study of Yunnan Province

2021 ◽  
Vol 293 ◽  
pp. 03032
Author(s):  
Shi Su ◽  
Jiaxin Jiang ◽  
Chunlin Yin ◽  
Jian Hu ◽  
Ting Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Yunnan Province ◽  
High Potential ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Bass Model ◽  
Vehicle Ownership ◽  
Potential Development ◽  
New Energy ◽  
Q Model ◽  
New Energy Vehicles

In order to forecast the number of electric vehicles in Yunnan Province, based on BASS model, this paper uses extensive analogy method to explore the acquisition of m, p and q model parameters, forecasts the purchasing power of the market, and estimates the innovation coefficient and imitation coefficient from three aspects of high potential scenario, base potential scenario and low potential scenario. The number of new energy electric vehicles in Yunnan Province in three scenarios from 2022 to 2035 is predicted. The forecast results show that under the condition of high potential development, the number of new energy vehicles in Yunnan Province will reach 409,600 in 2022; in the case of benchmark potential development, the number of new energy vehicles will reach 291,400 in 2022; in the case of low potential development, the number of new energy vehicles in Yunnan Province will reach 155,400 in 2022.

scholarly journals Characteristics Numerical Research on Power Battery Impact Strength of New Energy Vehicle

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (08) ◽  
pp. 1950042
Author(s):  
Zhuhai Tao ◽  
Yang Jialin ◽  
Zhang Xianglei ◽  
Zhang Bing
Keyword(s):  
Impact Strength ◽  
Crash Test ◽  
Test Conditions ◽  
Power Battery ◽  
Average Impact ◽  
New Energy ◽  
Strength Curve ◽  
New Energy Vehicle ◽  
The Impact ◽  
New Energy Vehicles

Based on the crash test of new energy vehicles, the mechanical response data of power batteries during the collision process were collected, and the average impact strength curve of power batteries of typical new energy vehicles in China was obtained. The average impact strength curve was mathematically processed to obtain the impact strength characteristic value and tolerance by using the equivalent trapezoidal wave and the least square method, thereby determining the test conditions of the dynamic strength of the domestic new energy vehicle power battery. The differences are analyzed by comparing with ISO 12405-3 test conditions, which provides an important reference for the revision of power battery test standards in the future.

scholarly journals The Impact of Purchase Subsidy on Enterprises’ R&D Efforts: Evidence from China’s New Energy Vehicle Industry

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 1105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cailou Jiang ◽  
Ying Zhang ◽  
Qun Zhao ◽  
Chong Wu
Keyword(s):  
Positive Impact ◽  
Government Procurement ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Subsidy Rate ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
New Energy ◽  
New Energy Vehicle ◽  
The Impact ◽  
New Energy Vehicles

Purchase subsidy has been adopted to accelerate the diffusion of New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China. With a Multi-stage Difference-in-Differences (DID) method, this research investigates the impact of purchase subsidy on Research and Development (R&D) efforts of NEV enterprises. The results indicate that purchase subsidy for NEVs has a positive and significant impact on R&D efforts of NEV enterprises. The impact increases when the purchase subsidy rate decreases. When considering the influences of government procurement and exemption on purchase tax, the positive impact of purchase subsidy still remains significant. The policy implications are that the purchase subsidy rate should be reduced, and stricter technological requirements should be set to couple with the purchase subsidy.

scholarly journals Screening Contract Excitation Models Involving Closed-Loop Supply Chains Under Asymmetric Information Games: A Case Study with New Energy Vehicle Power Battery

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaodong Zhu ◽  
Lingfei Yu
Keyword(s):  
Closed Loop ◽  
High Capacity ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Power Battery ◽  
New Energy ◽  
The Impact ◽  
New Energy Vehicles

In closed-loop supply chain systems for power battery remanufacturing, recycling and dismantling tasks will be relegated to third-party recyclers. This has significant disadvantages, inasmuch as the asymmetric exchange of information regarding the level of recycling capacity and effort after signing a contract fiscal risks to the manufacturers. The purpose of this paper is to study the “adverse selection” of recyclers and “moral hazards” hidden in their purported effort levels, based on Information Screening Models in the principal-agent theory. Our information screening model for revenue sharing will be presented, and subsequently verified using numerical simulation to demonstrate the impact of the screening contract on the expected returns of both parties. Our results show that the sharing coefficient of the remanufacturing revenue for low-capability recyclers is distorted downwards, and only truthful reporting can retain profits. High-capacity recyclers will obtain additional information while retaining profit. At the same time, as the proportion of high-capacity recyclers in the market increases, the expected return of the entrusting party increases. One critical area where this will impact the Chinese economy is in the area of new energy vehicles. We investigate a case study of our approach in new energy vehicles, which are being used to reduced CO 2 emissions, but have environmentally hazardous batteries that must be recycled safely and economically.

scholarly journals Consumers’ Purchase Intention of New Energy Vehicles: Do Product-Life-Cycle Policy Portfolios Matter?

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1711
Author(s):  
Jizi Li ◽  
Yuping Zhou ◽  
Dengke Yu ◽  
Chunling Liu
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Purchase Intention ◽  
Product Life Cycle ◽  
Perceived Usefulness ◽  
Product Life ◽  
Production Policy ◽  
Financial Benefits ◽  
New Energy ◽  
The Impact ◽  
New Energy Vehicles

New energy vehicles have been recognized as a sustainable alternative to lower gasoline consumption and emissions in the transportation sector. To alleviate environmental pressure, a spectrum of government policies has been introduced to inspire the production and penetration of new energy vehicles (NEVs). Meanwhile, some of the incentive policies are facing renewals and modifications to meet consumers’ demand of purchase and the present growth of the NEV industry. This means that the understanding of what the current and upcoming policies are, how to formulate policy portfolios, and consumers’ purchasing NEV behavior in a response to these policies and its adjustment are of practical and academic importance for the NEV sector. Different from prior research which analyzed the role of government policy as a whole, we here separately examined the impact of policy portfolios (i.e., production policy, purchase/usage policy and recycle policy) on NEV adoption from the product life cycle perspective. The hypotheses were empirically tested by analyzing data collected from 299 respondents in China. The results showed that production policy has a significantly positive impact on financial benefits, esteem needs and infrastructure, whereas it insignificantly influences NEV performance; similarly, purchase/usage policy positively affects esteem needs and infrastructure, yet its effect on financial benefits is found to be insignificant; meanwhile, recycle policy has a significantly positive effect on financial benefits, and esteem needs as well as NEV performance. Furthermore, financial benefits, esteem needs, NEV performance and infrastructure are found to significantly and positively impact on consumers’ purchase intention. Parallel to this, we observed perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use play partially mediating relations between policy portfolios and consumers’ adoption intent. Hints for decision-makers and avenues for future study are discussed in this research.

scholarly journals Impact of Technology Innovation on Air Quality—An Empirical Study on New Energy Vehicles in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (8) ◽  
pp. 4025
Author(s):  
Haoxuan Hu ◽  
Yuchen Zhang ◽  
Xi Rao ◽  
Yinghua Jin
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Technology Innovation ◽  
Fixed Effect Model ◽  
Mediating Effect ◽  
Mediating Role ◽  
New Energy ◽  
Impact Of Technology ◽  
The Impact ◽  
New Energy Vehicles

China’s high economic growth has been accompanied by deteriorating air quality in recent decades. This paper aims to explore the relation between technology innovation (defined as the invention patent counts of each region) of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China and air quality. A panel fixed effect model is used to analyze this relation and the mediating effect methods are used to examine the role of the output of NEVs (defined as the annual production quantity of NEVs in each region (unit: thousand)). The results of our study show: (1) the impact of the technology innovation of NEVs on air quality is positive and statistically significant; (2) the mediating role of the output of NEVs is confirmed in the relation between NEVs innovation and air quality improvement; (3) the technology innovation of NEVs has a more notable impact on the air quality in the regions with higher vehicle and vessel tax (VVT). The present study implicates for the first time that the technology innovation of NEVs can enhance air quality with the mediating role of the output of NEVs and the moderating role of VVT.

scholarly journals Economic Cost Analysis of New Energy Vehicle Policy -Empirical Research Based on Beijing’s Data

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 153
Author(s):  
Xuenan Ju ◽  
Baowen Sun ◽  
Jieying Jin
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Motor Vehicle ◽  
Municipal Government ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Vehicle Exhaust ◽  
New Energy ◽  
Implementation Period ◽  
New Energy Vehicle ◽  
The Impact ◽  
New Energy Vehicles

In recent years, in order to improve Beijing's air quality and reduce vehicle emissions, the Beijing Municipal Government promotes the popularization of new energy vehicles through purchase subsidies, plate lottery, and driving restriction policy. However, the increase in the number of new energy vehicles and the increase in the number of vehicles travelling on roads have intensified the traffic pressure in Beijing. Traffic congestion has increased the emissions of motor vehicle exhaust in turn, resulting in higher socio-economic costs. Based on the actual data of Beijing, this paper quantitatively analyzes the economic cost of new energy vehicle policies by discussing the impact of current new energy vehicle policies on time, energy consumption and tail gas cost. Empirical results show that during the implementation period of the new energy vehicle policy, time cost and tail gas cost increase, energy consumption cost decreases, and the overall economic cost of the policy implementation period increases from 50 million yuan to 321 million yuan.

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