scholarly journals Predicting the Potential Distribution of Perennial Plant Coptis chinensis Franch. in China under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1464
Author(s):  
Qian Zhao ◽  
Yuan Zhang ◽  
Wen-Na Li ◽  
Bang-Wen Hu ◽  
Jia-Bin Zou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Sustainable Utilization ◽  
Maximum Entropy Model ◽  
Perennial Species ◽  
Coptis Chinensis ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Perennial Plant ◽  
Medicinal Value

Coptis chinensis Franch. (Ranales: Ranunculaceae) is a perennial species with high medicinal value. Predicting the potentially geographical distribution patterns of C. chinensis against the background of climate change can facilitate its protection and sustainable utilization. This study employed the optimized maximum entropy model to predict the distribution patterns and changes in potentially suitable C. chinensis’ regions in China under multiple climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) across different time periods (1970–2000, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s). The results revealed that the currently potentially suitable regions of C. chinensis span an area of 120.47 × 104 km2, which accounts for 12.54% of China’s territory. Among these areas, the low, moderate, and highly suitable regions are 80.10 × 104 km2, 37.16 × 104 km2, and 3.21 × 104 km2, respectively. The highly suitable regions are primarily distributed in Chongqing, Guizhou, Zhejiang, Hubei, and Hunan Provinces. Over time, the potentially suitable regions of C. chinensis are predicted to shrink. Furthermore, our study revealed that the relatively low impact areas of C. chinensis were mainly distributed in Yunnan, Guizhou, Hubei, Chongqing, and other Provinces. Centroid transfer analysis indicated that except for SSP1-2.6, the center of the potentially suitable region of C. chinensis showed a trend of gradual transfer to the northwest and high-altitude areas.

scholarly journals Modeling the Potential Distribution of Three Taxa of Akebia Decne. under Climate Change Scenarios in China

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1710
Author(s):  
Xiuting Wang ◽  
Wenwen Zhang ◽  
Xin Zhao ◽  
Huiqin Zhu ◽  
Limiao Ma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Habitat Destruction ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Sustainable Utilization ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Diurnal Range ◽  
The Impact

Akebia trifoliata (Thunb.) Koidz., Akebia trifoliata subsp. australis (Diels) T. Shimizu and Akebia quinata (Houtt.) Decne. are the source plants of the traditional Chinese medicines AKEBIAE CAULIS and AKEBIAE FRUCTUS, and have high pharmaceutical value. However, the resource reserve of these plants has dramatically declined due to habitat destruction, which has seriously affected their adequate supply and sustainable utilization. A poor knowledge of the potential distribution of these medicinal materials would seriously constrain the protective exploitation of wild resources and the establishment of new cultivations. In this study, based on the scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, the maximum entropy model was used to predict the potential distribution of these three Akebia taxa under current and future (2030s, 2050s, 2070s and 2090s) climate conditions. Our findings showed that the potentially suitable areas of these three Akebia taxa were mainly distributed in China at 101.8–121.9° E and 23.5–34.6° N. Temperature played a more significant role than precipitation in affecting the distribution. The dominant bioclimatic variable that affected the distribution of A. trifoliata and A. quinata in China was the minimum temperature of the coldest month (BIO06). For A. trifoliata subsp. australis, the mean diurnal range (BIO02) was the dominant variable influencing its distribution. Compared with current conditions, the moderate- and high-suitability areas of these three Akebia taxa were predicted to shrink towards the core areas, while the low-suitability areas were all observed to increase from the 2030s to the 2090s. With the increase in radiative forcing of SSP, the low-impact areas of these three Akebia taxa showed a decreasing trend as a whole. Our results illustrate the impact of climate change on the distribution of Akebia, and would provide references for the sustainable utilization of Akebia’s resources.

scholarly journals Projecting the Potential Distribution Areas of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) Driven by Climate Change

Biology ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Lu Zhang ◽  
Delong Ma ◽  
Chao Li ◽  
Ruobing Zhou ◽  
Jun Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ixodes Scapularis ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Maximum Entropy Model ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Jackknife Method ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Suitable Area

Ixodes scapularis is a vector of tick-borne diseases. Climate change is frequently invoked as an important cause of geographic expansions of tick-borne diseases. Environmental variables such as temperature and precipitation have an important impact on the geographical distribution of disease vectors. We used the maximum entropy model to project the potential geographic distribution and future trends of I. scapularis. The main climatic variables affecting the distribution of potential suitable areas were screened by the jackknife method. Arc Map 10.5 was used to visualize the projection results to better present the distribution of potential suitable areas. Under climate change scenarios, the potential suitable area of I. scapularis is dynamically changing. The largest suitable area of I. scapularis is under SSP3-7.0 from 2081 to 2100, while the smallest is under SSP5-8.5 from 2081 to 2100, even smaller than the current suitable area. Precipitation in May and September are the main contributing factors affecting the potential suitable areas of I. scapularis. With the opportunity to spread to more potential suitable areas, it is critical to strengthen surveillance to prevent the possible invasion of I. scapularis.

scholarly journals Current and future suitable habitat areas for Nasuella olivacea (Gray, 1865) in Colombia and Ecuador and analysis of its distribution across different land uses

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Medrano-Vizcaíno ◽  
Patricia Gutiérrez-Salazar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Wildlife Conservation ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ecological Niche Models

Nasuella olivacea is an endemic mammal from the Andes of Ecuador and Colombia. Due to its rarity, aspects about its natural history, ecology and distribution patterns are not well known, therefore, research is needed to generate knowledge about this carnivore and a first step is studying suitable habitat areas. We performed Ecological Niche Models and applied future climate change scenarios (2.6 and 8.5 RCP) to determine the potential distribution of this mammal in Colombia and Ecuador, with current and future climate change conditions; furthermore, we analysed its distribution along several land covers. We found that N. olivacea is likely to be found in areas where no records have been reported previously; likewise, climate change conditions would increase suitable distribution areas. Concerning land cover, 73.4% of N. olivacea potential distribution was located outside Protected Areas (PA), 46.1% in Forests and 40.3% in Agricultural Lands. These findings highlight the need to further research understudied species, furthering our understanding about distribution trends and responses to changing climatic conditions, as well as informig future PA designing. These are essential tools for supporting wildlife conservation plans, being applicable for rare species whose biology and ecology remain unknown.

scholarly journals Adaptive diversity of beech seedlings under climate change scenarios

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgios Varsamis ◽  
Aristotelis C Papageorgiou ◽  
Theodora Merou ◽  
Ioannis Takos ◽  
Chrisovalantis Malesios ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Seedling Survival ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Growth Chamber ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Southeastern Part ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Adaptive Diversity

The ability of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) populations to adapt to the ongoing climate change is crucial for the maintenance of economic and social benefits and for the conservation of biodiversity in Europe and especially in the southeastern part of the continent, where environmental change is expected to be more intense. Beech populations in the region cover multiple ecological conditions at a small geographical range and have a complex biogeographical background involving several postglacial lineages originating from distant or local refugia. In this study, we tested the existing adaptive potential of eight beech populations from two provenances in N.E. Greece (Evros and Drama), under simulated controlled climate change conditions in a growth chamber and in the field. In the growth chamber, simulated conditions of temperature and precipitation for the year 2050 were applied for three years, under two different irrigation schemes, a non-frequent (A1) and a frequent one (A2). Seedling survival, growth and leaf phenological traits were used as adaptive traits. The results showed that beech seedlings were generally able to survive under climate change conditions and showed adaptive differences among provenances and populations. Furthermore, beech genotypes demonstrated an impressive phenotypic plasticity by changing the duration of their growing season allowing them to avoid environmental stress and high selection pressure. Different populations and provenances were connected with different adaptation strategies, that relate mainly to the temporal distribution patterns of precipitation and temperature, rather than the average annual or monthly values of these measures. Additionally, different adaptive strategies appeared among beech seedlings when the same amount of water was distributed differently within each month. This indicates that the physiological response mechanisms of beech individuals are very complex and depend on several interacting parameters. For this reason, the choice of beech provenances for translocation and use in afforestation or reforestation projects should consider the small scale ecotypic diversity of the species and view multiple environmental and climatic parameters in connection to each other.

scholarly journals Simulation of the Potential Distribution of the Glacier Based on Maximum Entropy Model in the Tianshan Mountains, China

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1541
Author(s):  
Tongxia Wang ◽  
Zhengyong Zhang ◽  
Lin Liu ◽  
Zhongqin Li ◽  
Puyu Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Pattern ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Tianshan Mountains ◽  
Glacier Area ◽  
Maximum Entropy Model ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
High Emission ◽  
High Emission Scenario

Under the background of global climate change, the variation in the spatial distribution and ice volume of mountain glaciers have a profound influence on regional economic development and ecological security. The development of glaciers is like biological succession; when climate change approaches or exceeds the threshold of suitable conditions for glacier development, it will lead to changes in potential distribution pattern. Therefore, from the perspective of the "biological" characteristics of glaciers, it is a beneficial exploration and attempt in the field of glaciology to explore its potential distribution law with the help of the niche model. The maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) can explain the environmental conditions suitable for the survival of things by analyzing the mathematical characteristics and distribution laws of samples in space. According to glacier samples and the geographical environment data screened by correlation analysis and iterative calculation, the potential distribution pattern of Tianshan glaciers in China in reference years (1970–2000) was simulated by MaxEnt. This paper describes the contribution of geographical environmental factors to distribution of glaciers in Tianshan Mountains, quantifies the threshold range of factors affecting the suitable habitat of glaciers, and predicts the area variation and distribution pattern of glaciers under different climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) in the future (2040–2060, 2080–2100). The results show that the MaxEnt model has good adaptability to simulate the distribution of glaciers. The spatial heterogeneity of potential distribution of glaciers is caused by the spatio-temporal differences of hydrothermal combination and topographic conditions. Among the environmental variables, precipitation during the wettest month, altitude, annual mean temperature, and temperature seasonality have more significant effects on the potential distribution of glaciers. There is significant spatial heterogeneity in the potential distribution of glaciers in different watersheds, altitudes, and aspects. From the forecast results of glacier in various climatic scenarios in the future, about 18.16–27.62% of the total reference year glacier area are in an alternating change of melting and accumulation, among which few glaciers are increasing, but this has not changed the overall retreat trend of glaciers in the study area. Under the low emission scenario, the glacier area of the Tianshan Mountains in China decreased by 18.18% and 23.73% respectively in the middle and end of the 21st century compared with the reference years and decreased by 20.04% and 27.63%, respectively, under the high emission scenario, which showed that the extent of glacier retreat is more intense under the high emission scenario. Our study offers momentous theoretical value and practical significance for enriching and expanding the theories and analytical methods of the glacier change.

scholarly journals Adaptive diversity of beech seedlings under climate change scenarios

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgios Varsamis ◽  
Aristotelis C Papageorgiou ◽  
Theodora Merou ◽  
Ioannis Takos ◽  
Chrisovalantis Malesios ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Seedling Survival ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Growth Chamber ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Southeastern Part ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Adaptive Diversity

The ability of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) populations to adapt to the ongoing climate change is crucial for the maintenance of economic and social benefits and for the conservation of biodiversity in Europe and especially in the southeastern part of the continent, where environmental change is expected to be more intense. Beech populations in the region cover multiple ecological conditions at a small geographical range and have a complex biogeographical background involving several postglacial lineages originating from distant or local refugia. In this study, we tested the existing adaptive potential of eight beech populations from two provenances in N.E. Greece (Evros and Drama), under simulated controlled climate change conditions in a growth chamber and in the field. In the growth chamber, simulated conditions of temperature and precipitation for the year 2050 were applied for three years, under two different irrigation schemes, a non-frequent (A1) and a frequent one (A2). Seedling survival, growth and leaf phenological traits were used as adaptive traits. The results showed that beech seedlings were generally able to survive under climate change conditions and showed adaptive differences among provenances and populations. Furthermore, beech genotypes demonstrated an impressive phenotypic plasticity by changing the duration of their growing season allowing them to avoid environmental stress and high selection pressure. Different populations and provenances were connected with different adaptation strategies, that relate mainly to the temporal distribution patterns of precipitation and temperature, rather than the average annual or monthly values of these measures. Additionally, different adaptive strategies appeared among beech seedlings when the same amount of water was distributed differently within each month. This indicates that the physiological response mechanisms of beech individuals are very complex and depend on several interacting parameters. For this reason, the choice of beech provenances for translocation and use in afforestation or reforestation projects should consider the small scale ecotypic diversity of the species and view multiple environmental and climatic parameters in connection to each other.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Lime (16srii-B) and Alfalfa (16srii-D) Phytoplasma Disease Using MaxEnt

Plants ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 460
Author(s):  
Amna M. Al Ruheili ◽  
Alaba Boluwade ◽  
Ali M. Al Subhi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Entire Country ◽  
Climatic Scenarios ◽  
Broom Disease ◽  
The Impact

Witches’ broom disease has led to major losses in lime and alfalfa production in Oman. This paper identifies bioclimatic variables that contribute to the prediction of distribution of witches’ broom disease in current and future climatic scenarios. It also explores the expansion, reduction, or shift in the climatic niche of the distribution of the disease across the different geographical areas of the entire country (309,501 km²). The maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and geographical information system were used to investigate the potential suitability of habitats for the phytoplasma disease. This study used current (1970–2000) and future projected climatic scenarios (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100) to model the distribution of phytoplasma for lime trees and alfalfa in Oman. Bioclimatic variables were downloaded from WorldClim with ± 60 occurrence points for lime trees and alfalfa. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the model’s performance. Quantitatively, the results showed that the mean of the AUC values for lime (16SrII-B) and alfalfa (16SrII-D) future distribution for the periods of 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100 were rated as “excellent”, with the values for the specified time periods being 0.859, 0.900, 0.931, and 0.913 for 16SrII-B; and 0.826, 0.837, 08.58, and 0.894 for 16SrII-D respectively. In addition, this study identified the hotspots and proportions of the areas that are vulnerable under the projected climate-change scenarios. The area of current (2021–2040) highly suitable distribution within the entire country for 16SrII-D was 19474.2 km2 (7.1%), while for 16SrII-B, an area of 8835 km2 (3.2%) was also highly suitable for the disease distribution. The proportions of these suitable areas are very significant from the available arable land standpoint. Therefore, the results from this study will be of immense benefit and will also bring significant contributions in mapping the areas of witches’ broom diseases in Oman. The results will equally aid the development of new strategies and the formulation of agricultural policies and practices in controlling the spread of the disease across Oman.

scholarly journals Simulation of Potential Suitable Distribution of Original Species of Fritillariae Cirrhosae Bulbus in China Under Climate Change Scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Liu ◽  
Yuanyuan Zhang ◽  
Yi Huang ◽  
Jindong Zhang ◽  
Qiuyu Mou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Western Sichuan ◽  
Activity Intensity ◽  
Rare And Endangered ◽  
Original Species ◽  
Suitable Area

Abstract Fritillariae Cirrhosae Bulbus (FCB) is a famous traditional Chinese medicine, mainly used for relieving cough and resolving phlegm. According to Chinese Pharmacopoeia (2020), the medicine comes from dried bulbs of five species and one variety in Fritillaria. Due to climate change and human disturbance, the wild resources have become critically endangered in recent years. Following three climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) under 2050s and 2070s, geographic information technology (GIS) and maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) were used to simulate the ecological suitability of FCB, a third-grade rare and endangered medicinal plant species. The results showed that the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of were altitude, human activity intensity, and mean temperature of coldest quarter. Under current climate situation, the highly suitable areas were mainly located in the east of Qinghai Tibet Plateau, including Western Sichuan, southeastern Tibet, southern Gansu, Northwestern Yunnan and Eastern Qinghai, with a total area of 31.47×104 km2, the area within the nature reserve was 7.13×104 km2, indicating that there was a large protection gap. Under the future climate change scenarios, the areas of the highly and poorly suitable areas of FCB showed a decreasing trend, while the areas of the moderately and total suitable areas showed a increasing trend. The geometric center of the total suitable area of the medicine will move to the northwest. The results could provide a strategic guidance for protection，development and utilization of FCB though its prediction of potential distribution based on the key variables of climate change.

scholarly journals Modeling the Climate Suitability of Northernmost Mangroves in China under Climate Change Scenarios

Forests ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 64
Author(s):  
Yuyu Wang ◽  
Peng Dong ◽  
Wenjia Hu ◽  
Guangcheng Chen ◽  
Dian Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Habitat Management ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Wetland Ecosystems ◽  
Suitable Area

Mangroves are important wetland ecosystems on tropical and subtropical coasts. There is an urgent need to better understand how the spatial distribution of mangroves varies with climate change factors. Species distribution models can be used to reveal the spatial change of mangroves; however, global models typically have a horizontal resolution of hundreds of kilometers and more than 1 km, even after downscaling. In the present study, a maximum entropy model was used to predict suitable areas for the northernmost mangroves in China in the 2050s. An approach was proposed to improve the resolution and credibility of suitability predictions by incorporating land-use potential. Predictions were made based on two CMIP6 scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). The results show that the northern edge of the natural mangrove distribution in China would migrate from 27.20° N to 27.39° N–28.15° N, and the total extent of suitable mangrove habitats would expand. By integrating 30 m resolution land-use data to refine the model’s predictions, under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the suitable habitats of mangroves are predicted to be 13,435 ha, which would increase by 33.9% compared with the current scenario. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the suitable area would be 23,120 ha, with an increased rate of 96.5%. Approximately 40–44% of the simulated mangrove patches would be adjacent to aquacultural ponds, cultivated, and artificial land, which may restrict mangrove expansion. Collectively, our results showed how climate change and land use could influence mangrove distributions, providing a scientific basis for adaptive mangrove habitat management despite climate change.

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