Projecting the Potential Distribution Areas of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) Driven by Climate Change

Ixodes scapularis is a vector of tick-borne diseases. Climate change is frequently invoked as an important cause of geographic expansions of tick-borne diseases. Environmental variables such as temperature and precipitation have an important impact on the geographical distribution of disease vectors. We used the maximum entropy model to project the potential geographic distribution and future trends of I. scapularis. The main climatic variables affecting the distribution of potential suitable areas were screened by the jackknife method. Arc Map 10.5 was used to visualize the projection results to better present the distribution of potential suitable areas. Under climate change scenarios, the potential suitable area of I. scapularis is dynamically changing. The largest suitable area of I. scapularis is under SSP3-7.0 from 2081 to 2100, while the smallest is under SSP5-8.5 from 2081 to 2100, even smaller than the current suitable area. Precipitation in May and September are the main contributing factors affecting the potential suitable areas of I. scapularis. With the opportunity to spread to more potential suitable areas, it is critical to strengthen surveillance to prevent the possible invasion of I. scapularis.

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Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Euscaphis japonica (Staphyleaceae) Trees

Forests ◽

10.3390/f11050525 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (5) ◽

pp. 525

Author(s):

Keliang Zhang ◽

Lanping Sun ◽

Jun Tao

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Policy Development ◽

Performance Metrics ◽

Southern China ◽

Eastern China ◽

Individual Species ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

The North ◽

Temperature And Precipitation

Analyzing the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems and individual species is of great significance for incorporating management responses to conservation policy development. Euscaphis japonica (Staphyleaceae), a small tree or deciduous shrub, is distributed among the open forests or mountainous valleys of Vietnam, Korea, Japan, and southern China. Meanwhile, it is also used as a medicinal and ornamental plant. Nonetheless, the extents of E. japonica forest have gradually shrunk as a result of deforestation, together with the regional influence of climate change. The present study employed two methods for modeling species distribution, Maxent and Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP), to model the potential distribution of this species and the effects of climate change on it. Our results suggest that both models performed favorably, but GARP outperformed Maxent for all performance metrics. The temperate and subtropical regions of eastern China where the species had been recorded was very suitable for E. japonica growth. Temperature and precipitation were two primary environmental factors affecting the distribution of E. japonica. Under climate change scenarios, the range of suitable habitats for E. japonica will expand geographically toward the north. Our findings may be used in several ways such as identifying currently undocumented locations of E. japonica, sites where it may occur in the future, or potential locations where the species could be introduced and so contribute to the conservation and management of this species.

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Simulation of Potential Suitable Distribution of Original Species of Fritillariae Cirrhosae Bulbus in China Under Climate Change Scenarios

10.21203/rs.3.rs-742744/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Lei Liu ◽

Yuanyuan Zhang ◽

Yi Huang ◽

Jindong Zhang ◽

Qiuyu Mou ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tibet Plateau ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Entropy Model ◽

Western Sichuan ◽

Activity Intensity ◽

Rare And Endangered ◽

Original Species ◽

Suitable Area

Abstract Fritillariae Cirrhosae Bulbus (FCB) is a famous traditional Chinese medicine, mainly used for relieving cough and resolving phlegm. According to Chinese Pharmacopoeia (2020), the medicine comes from dried bulbs of five species and one variety in Fritillaria. Due to climate change and human disturbance, the wild resources have become critically endangered in recent years. Following three climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) under 2050s and 2070s, geographic information technology (GIS) and maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) were used to simulate the ecological suitability of FCB, a third-grade rare and endangered medicinal plant species. The results showed that the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of were altitude, human activity intensity, and mean temperature of coldest quarter. Under current climate situation, the highly suitable areas were mainly located in the east of Qinghai Tibet Plateau, including Western Sichuan, southeastern Tibet, southern Gansu, Northwestern Yunnan and Eastern Qinghai, with a total area of 31.47×104 km2, the area within the nature reserve was 7.13×104 km2, indicating that there was a large protection gap. Under the future climate change scenarios, the areas of the highly and poorly suitable areas of FCB showed a decreasing trend, while the areas of the moderately and total suitable areas showed a increasing trend. The geometric center of the total suitable area of the medicine will move to the northwest. The results could provide a strategic guidance for protection，development and utilization of FCB though its prediction of potential distribution based on the key variables of climate change.

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Modeling the Climate Suitability of Northernmost Mangroves in China under Climate Change Scenarios

Forests ◽

10.3390/f13010064 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 64

Author(s):

Yuyu Wang ◽

Peng Dong ◽

Wenjia Hu ◽

Guangcheng Chen ◽

Dian Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Habitat Management ◽

Scientific Basis ◽

Horizontal Resolution ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Entropy Model ◽

Wetland Ecosystems ◽

Suitable Area

Mangroves are important wetland ecosystems on tropical and subtropical coasts. There is an urgent need to better understand how the spatial distribution of mangroves varies with climate change factors. Species distribution models can be used to reveal the spatial change of mangroves; however, global models typically have a horizontal resolution of hundreds of kilometers and more than 1 km, even after downscaling. In the present study, a maximum entropy model was used to predict suitable areas for the northernmost mangroves in China in the 2050s. An approach was proposed to improve the resolution and credibility of suitability predictions by incorporating land-use potential. Predictions were made based on two CMIP6 scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). The results show that the northern edge of the natural mangrove distribution in China would migrate from 27.20° N to 27.39° N–28.15° N, and the total extent of suitable mangrove habitats would expand. By integrating 30 m resolution land-use data to refine the model’s predictions, under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the suitable habitats of mangroves are predicted to be 13,435 ha, which would increase by 33.9% compared with the current scenario. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the suitable area would be 23,120 ha, with an increased rate of 96.5%. Approximately 40–44% of the simulated mangrove patches would be adjacent to aquacultural ponds, cultivated, and artificial land, which may restrict mangrove expansion. Collectively, our results showed how climate change and land use could influence mangrove distributions, providing a scientific basis for adaptive mangrove habitat management despite climate change.

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Predicting the Potential Distribution of Perennial Plant Coptis chinensis Franch. in China under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12111464 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (11) ◽

pp. 1464

Author(s):

Qian Zhao ◽

Yuan Zhang ◽

Wen-Na Li ◽

Bang-Wen Hu ◽

Jia-Bin Zou ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Distribution Patterns ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Sustainable Utilization ◽

Maximum Entropy Model ◽

Perennial Species ◽

Coptis Chinensis ◽

Entropy Model ◽

Perennial Plant ◽

Medicinal Value

Coptis chinensis Franch. (Ranales: Ranunculaceae) is a perennial species with high medicinal value. Predicting the potentially geographical distribution patterns of C. chinensis against the background of climate change can facilitate its protection and sustainable utilization. This study employed the optimized maximum entropy model to predict the distribution patterns and changes in potentially suitable C. chinensis’ regions in China under multiple climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) across different time periods (1970–2000, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s). The results revealed that the currently potentially suitable regions of C. chinensis span an area of 120.47 × 104 km2, which accounts for 12.54% of China’s territory. Among these areas, the low, moderate, and highly suitable regions are 80.10 × 104 km2, 37.16 × 104 km2, and 3.21 × 104 km2, respectively. The highly suitable regions are primarily distributed in Chongqing, Guizhou, Zhejiang, Hubei, and Hunan Provinces. Over time, the potentially suitable regions of C. chinensis are predicted to shrink. Furthermore, our study revealed that the relatively low impact areas of C. chinensis were mainly distributed in Yunnan, Guizhou, Hubei, Chongqing, and other Provinces. Centroid transfer analysis indicated that except for SSP1-2.6, the center of the potentially suitable region of C. chinensis showed a trend of gradual transfer to the northwest and high-altitude areas.

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Projections for Mexico’s Tropical Rainforests Considering Ecological Niche and Climate Change

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12020119 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 119

Author(s):

Antonio Fidel Santos-Hernández ◽

Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas ◽

Diódoro Granados-Sánchez ◽

Antonio Villanueva-Morales ◽

Malinali Santacruz-Carrillo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ecological Niche ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Tropical Rainforest ◽

Statistical Significance ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Tropical Regions ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Ecological Importance

The tropical rainforest is one of the lushest and most important plant communities in Mexico’s tropical regions, yet its potential distribution has not been studied in current and future climate conditions. The aim of this paper was to propose priority areas for conservation based on ecological niche and species distribution modeling of 22 species with the greatest ecological importance at the climax stage. Geographic records were correlated with bioclimatic temperature and precipitation variables using Maxent and Kuenm software for each species. The best Maxent models were chosen based on statistical significance, complexity and predictive power, and current potential distributions were obtained from these models. Future potential distributions were projected with two climate change scenarios: HADGEM2_ES and GFDL_CM3 models and RCP 8.5 W/m2 by 2075–2099. All potential distributions for each scenario were then assembled for further analysis. We found that 14 tropical rainforest species have the potential for distribution in 97.4% of the landscape currently occupied by climax vegetation (0.6% of the country). Both climate change scenarios showed a 3.5% reduction in their potential distribution and possible displacement to higher elevation regions. Areas are proposed for tropical rainforest conservation where suitable bioclimatic conditions are expected to prevail.

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Climate Change Influences Basidiome Emergence of Leaf-Cutting Ant Cultivars

Journal of Fungi ◽

10.3390/jof7110912 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 7 (11) ◽

pp. 912

Author(s):

Rodolfo Bizarria ◽

Pepijn W. Kooij ◽

Andre Rodrigues

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Nest Architecture ◽

Historical Records ◽

Climate Data ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Data Analyses ◽

Symbiotic Mutualism ◽

Leaf Cutting

Maintaining symbiosis homeostasis is essential for mutualistic partners. Leaf-cutting ants evolved a long-term symbiotic mutualism with fungal cultivars for nourishment while using vertical asexual transmission across generations. Despite the ants’ efforts to suppress fungal sexual reproduction, scattered occurrences of cultivar basidiomes have been reported. Here, we review the literature for basidiome occurrences and associated climate data. We hypothesized that more basidiome events could be expected in scenarios with an increase in temperature and precipitation. Our field observations and climate data analyses indeed suggest that Acromyrmex coronatus colonies are prone to basidiome occurrences in warmer and wetter seasons. Even though our study partly depended on historical records, occurrences have increased, correlating with climate change. A nest architecture with low (or even the lack of) insulation might be the cause of this phenomenon. The nature of basidiome occurrences in the A. coronatus–fungus mutualism can be useful to elucidate how resilient mutualistic symbioses are in light of climate change scenarios.

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Evaluation of factors affecting gully headcut location using summary statistics and the maximum entropy model: Golestan Province, NE Iran

The Science of The Total Environment ◽

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.306 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 677 ◽

pp. 281-298 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Narges Kariminejad ◽

Mohsen Hosseinalizadeh ◽

Hamid Reza Pourghasemi ◽

Anita Bernatek-Jakiel ◽

Giandiego Campetella ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Maximum Entropy ◽

Summary Statistics ◽

Maximum Entropy Model ◽

Entropy Model ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

Golestan Province ◽

Ne Iran

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Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yield and Irrigation in the Monocacy River Watershed, USA

Climate ◽

10.3390/cli8120139 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (12) ◽

pp. 139

Author(s):

Manashi Paul ◽

Sijal Dangol ◽

Vitaly Kholodovsky ◽

Amy R. Sapkota ◽

Masoud Negahban-Azar ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Crop Yield ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Swat Model ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

River Watershed ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

The Impact

Crop yield depends on multiple factors, including climate conditions, soil characteristics, and available water. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of projected temperature and precipitation changes on crop yields in the Monocacy River Watershed in the Mid-Atlantic United States based on climate change scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate watershed hydrology and crop yield. To evaluate the effect of future climate projections, four global climate models (GCMs) and three representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5, 6, and 8.5) were used in the SWAT model. According to all GCMs and RCPs, a warmer climate with a wetter Autumn and Spring and a drier late Summer season is anticipated by mid and late century in this region. To evaluate future management strategies, water budget and crop yields were assessed for two scenarios: current rainfed and adaptive irrigated conditions. Irrigation would improve corn yields during mid-century across all scenarios. However, prolonged irrigation would have a negative impact due to nutrients runoff on both corn and soybean yields compared to rainfed condition. Decision tree analysis indicated that corn and soybean yields are most influenced by soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation as well as the water management practice used (i.e., rainfed or irrigated). The computed values from the SWAT modeling can be used as guidelines for water resource managers in this watershed to plan for projected water shortages and manage crop yields based on projected climate change conditions.

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Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw

Biogeosciences ◽

10.5194/bg-13-6229-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 13 (22) ◽

pp. 6229-6245 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Henk-Jan van der Kolk ◽

Monique M. P. D. Heijmans ◽

Jacobus van Huissteden ◽

Jeroen W. M. Pullens ◽

Frank Berendse

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

The Arctic ◽

Soil Conditions ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Vegetation Shifts ◽

Permafrost Thaw ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Tundra Vegetation ◽

Tundra Ecosystem ◽

Wide Range

Abstract. Over the past decades, vegetation and climate have changed significantly in the Arctic. Deciduous shrub cover is often assumed to expand in tundra landscapes, but more frequent abrupt permafrost thaw resulting in formation of thaw ponds could lead to vegetation shifts towards graminoid-dominated wetland. Which factors drive vegetation changes in the tundra ecosystem are still not sufficiently clear. In this study, the dynamic tundra vegetation model, NUCOM-tundra (NUtrient and COMpetition), was used to evaluate the consequences of climate change scenarios of warming and increasing precipitation for future tundra vegetation change. The model includes three plant functional types (moss, graminoids and shrubs), carbon and nitrogen cycling, water and permafrost dynamics and a simple thaw pond module. Climate scenario simulations were performed for 16 combinations of temperature and precipitation increases in five vegetation types representing a gradient from dry shrub-dominated to moist mixed and wet graminoid-dominated sites. Vegetation composition dynamics in currently mixed vegetation sites were dependent on both temperature and precipitation changes, with warming favouring shrub dominance and increased precipitation favouring graminoid abundance. Climate change simulations based on greenhouse gas emission scenarios in which temperature and precipitation increases were combined showed increases in biomass of both graminoids and shrubs, with graminoids increasing in abundance. The simulations suggest that shrub growth can be limited by very wet soil conditions and low nutrient supply, whereas graminoids have the advantage of being able to grow in a wide range of soil moisture conditions and have access to nutrients in deeper soil layers. Abrupt permafrost thaw initiating thaw pond formation led to complete domination of graminoids. However, due to increased drainage, shrubs could profit from such changes in adjacent areas. Both climate and thaw pond formation simulations suggest that a wetter tundra can be responsible for local shrub decline instead of shrub expansion.

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Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-12-449-2008 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 449-463 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

M. Posch ◽

J. Aherne ◽

M. Forsius ◽

S. Fronzek ◽

N. Veijalainen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Surface Water ◽

Emission Reduction ◽

General Circulation ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Chemical Recovery ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Sulphur Deposition ◽

Temperature And Precipitation

Abstract. The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC) was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically) feasible reductions (MFR). Future climate (temperature and precipitation) was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and B2). The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3 (highest predicted change) and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted change). Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and sulphate deposition. Surprisingly, current emission reduction policies hardly show any future recovery; however, significant chemical recovery of soil and surface water from acidification was predicted under the MFR emission scenario. The direct influence of climate change (temperate and precipitation) on recovery was negligible, as runoff hardly changed; greater precipitation is offset by increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. However, two exploratory empirical DOC models indicated that changes in sulphur deposition or temperature could have a confounding influence on the recovery of surface waters from acidification, and that the corresponding increases in DOC concentrations may offset the recovery in pH due to reductions in acidifying depositions.

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