scholarly journals Can Forest-Related Adaptive Capacity Reduce Landslide Risk Attributable to Climate Change?—Case of Republic of Korea

Forests ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 49
Author(s):  
Chul-Hee Lim ◽  
Hyun-Jun Kim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Landslide Risk ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
Climate Disasters ◽  
Very High

Recent cases of climate disasters such as the European floods in 2021 and Korea’s longest rainy season in 2020 strongly imply the importance of adaptation to climate change. In this study, we performed a numerical prediction on how much climate change adaptation factors related to forest policy can reduce climate disasters such as landslides. We focused on the landslide in Korea and applied a machine learning model reflecting adaptive indicators in the representative concentration pathway 8.5 climate scenario. The changes in the landslide probability were estimated using the Random Forest model, which estimated the landslide probability in the baseline period (2011) with excellent performance, and the spatial adaptation indicators used in this study contributed approximately 20%. The future landslide risk predicting indicated a significant increase in the Very High and High risk areas, especially in 2092. The application of the forest-related adaptation indices based on the policy scenario showed that in 2050, the effect was not pronounced, but in 2092, when the risk of landslides was much higher, the effect increased significantly. In particular, the effect was remarkable in the Seoul metropolitan and southern coastal regions. Even with the same adaptive capacity, it exerted a larger effect on the enhanced disasters. Our results suggest that the enhancement of adaptive capacity can reduce landslide risk up to 70% in a Very High risk region. In conclusion, it implies an importance to respond to the intensifying climate disasters, and abundant follow-up studies are expected to appear in the future.

scholarly journals Methodology of an Analysis of Snow Disaster Risk for Establishing Climate Change Adaptation Measures

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 351-364
Author(s):  
Yu Insang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Spatial Information ◽  
Average Risk ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Very High

This study applies the concept of risk defined by IPCC’s fifth assessment report to Daegu City, Ulsan City, Gyeongsangbuk Province, and Gangwon Province to assess and analyze snow disaster risks. Sub-indicators of three hazards, six exposures, four vulnerabilities, and five adaptive capacities were selected, and spatial information based on grids or administrative districts was constructed. The weight of each indicator was calculated with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and the maximum inconsistency of the expert survey result was 9.86%, indicating high consistency. The results show that administrative districts with an space average risk of “very high” are Ulleung, Gangneung, Sokcho, Yangyang, Pyeongchang, Goseong, Donghae, Samcheok, and Jeongseon, accounting for 16.7% of the entire administrative district. One region has a “high” risk, Taebaek (1.9%), and those with a “moderately high” risk were Uljin and Inje (3.8%). These regions have very high levels of hazards, very low exposure, very high vulnerability, and low adaptive capacity; hence, hazard, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity had a significant effect on the increased risk. Pyeongchang had the highest standard deviation of gridded risk among the 12 regions with a risk above moderately high. The standard deviation of gridded risk for Pyeongchang was estimated to be 1.0 with the highest value, followed by Inje, with 0.69, and Jeongseon, with 0.55; therefore, differentiated climate change adaptation measures should be established according to gridded risks.

scholarly journals Assessment of crop risk due to climate change in Sao Tome and Principe

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicole Costa Resende Ferreira ◽  
Minella Martins ◽  
Priscila da Silva Tavares ◽  
Sin Chan Chou ◽  
Armando Monteiro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Thermal Stress ◽  
Water Stress ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Piper Nigrum ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Sao Tome And Principe ◽  
The Future ◽  
Very High

AbstractSao Tome and Principe is a small insular country in the west coast of Central Africa. The small dimensions of the islands and the limited natural resources put these islands under highly vulnerable to climate change. To assess the possible future impacts and risks on their agricultural activities, the high-resolution 4-km downscaled climate change projections using Eta regional climate model are used. A crop risk index (CRI) is proposed to assess the risk of climate change on cocoa (Theobroma cacaoL.), pepper (Piper nigrumL. andPiper guinesseL.), taro (Colocasia esculenta(L.) Schott), and maize (Zea maysL.). The index takes into account the vulnerability to climate conditions and the crop yield in the future, and it is classified intovery-high,high,moderate,low, andvery-low. The climate change projections indicate increase in the risk of taro crop, partly due to thermal stress and partly due to the susceptibility to the leaf blight crop disease in taro. The risk of production of the pepper crop is very-high, mainly due to water stress. In mountain regions, the greater risk is due to the thermal stress caused by low temperatures. The cocoa crop is at risk due to water stress, mainly in the northwestern part of the Sao Tome Island, where major local production occurs. The projection indicates increase of the area with very-high risk to maize crops due to the increase of thermal stress and susceptibility to rust. In addition, in parts of the coastal regions, the risk changed from very-low to high risk, due to the low productivity potential. In general, the risks of the four major crops of Sao Tome and Principe increase in the future climate conditions.

scholarly journals Vietnam Climate Change and Health Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment, 2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 117863022092465
Author(s):  
Tran Thi Tuyet Hanh ◽  
Le Thi Thanh Huong ◽  
Nguyen Thi Lien Huong ◽  
Tran Nu Quy Linh ◽  
Nguyen Huu Quyen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Health Vulnerability ◽  
The World ◽  
Very High

Background: The Global Climate Risk Index 2020 ranked Vietnam as the sixth country in the world most affected by climate variability and extreme weather events over the period 1999-2018. Sea level rise and extreme weather events are projected to be more severe in coming decades, which, without additional action, will increase the number of people at risk of climate-sensitive diseases, challenging the health system. This article summaries the results of a health vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessment conducted in Vietnam as evidences for development of the National Climate Change Health Adaptation Plan to 2030. Methods: The assessment followed the first 4 steps outlined in the World Health Organization’s Guidelines in conducting “Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments.” A framework and list of indicators were developed for semi-quantitative assessment for the period 2013 to 2017. Three sets of indicators were selected to assess the level of (1) exposure to climate change and extreme weather events, (2) health sensitivity, and (3) adaptation capacity. The indicators were rated and analyzed using a scoring system from 1 to 5. Results: The results showed that climate-sensitive diseases were common, including dengue fever, diarrheal, influenza, etc, with large burdens of disease that are projected to increase. From 2013 to 2017, the level of “exposure” to climate change–related hazards of the health sector was “high” to “very high,” with an average score from 3.5 to 4.4 (out of 5.0). For “health sensitivity,” the scores decreased from 3.8 in 2013 to 3.5 in 2017, making the overall rating as “high.” For “adaptive capacity,” the scores were from 4.0 to 4.1, which meant adaptive capacity was “very low.” The overall V&A rating in 2013 was “very high risk” (score 4.1) and “high risk” with scores of 3.8 in 2014 and 3.7 in 2015 to 2017. Conclusions: Adaptation actions of the health sector are urgently needed to reduce the vulnerability to climate change in coming decades. Eight adaptation solutions, among recommendations of V&A assessment, were adopted in the National Health Climate Change Adaptation Plan.

Adaptive capacity and regional water governance in north-western Germany

Water Policy ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 794-815 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Grecksch
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Salt Water ◽  
Water Governance ◽  
Metropolitan Region ◽  
Salt Water Intrusion ◽  
Communication Tool ◽  
Coastal Zones ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Study Region

Successful adaptation to climate change requires flexible adaptation strategies which consider regional ecological, economic and social circumstances. Coastal zones are considered to be significantly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The projected impacts of climate change in the metropolitan region of Bremen–Oldenburg, Germany (a coastal area), are, for example, rising sea level, salt water intrusion, temporary groundwater scarcity in the summer and increased (heavy) rainfalls. This paper uses an existing framework, the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW), complemented by two additional dimensions: adaptation motivation and adaptation belief. The objectives were first, to assess the adaptive capacity of water governance in the study region, and second, to show how the ACW can be used as an approach and a communication tool with stakeholders to identify strengths and weaknesses. Based on this, a further objective was to discover what lessons and recommendations can be drawn that could help water experts and stakeholders in the future. The results show a high adaptive capacity and that the addition of the psychological dimensions was valuable. However, it is important to look closely at each dimension assessed by the ACW. The key recommendations are: to improve public participation; to ensure better coordination; to raise awareness; and to reduce the lack of political will to overcome adaptation barriers.

scholarly journals Asset management using a hybrid backcasting/forecasting approach

Facilities ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (11/12) ◽  
pp. 701-715 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith Jones ◽  
Api Desai ◽  
Mark Mulville ◽  
Aled Jones
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
Asset Management ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Alternative Pathways ◽  
Future State ◽  
The Future

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present an alternative approach to facilities and built asset management adaptation planning to climate change based on a hybrid backcasting/forecasting model. Backcasting envisions a future state and examines alternative “pathways of approach” by looking backwards from the future state to the present day. Each pathway is examined in turn to identify interventions required for that pathway to achieve the future state. Each pathway is reviewed using forecasting tools and the most appropriate is selected. This paper describes the application of this approach to the integration of climate change adaptation plans into facilities and built asset management. Design/methodology/approach – The researchers worked with various stakeholders as part of a participatory research team to identify climate change adaptations that may be required to ensure the continued performance of a new educational building over its life cycle. The team identified 2020, 2040 and 2080 year end-goals and assessed alternative pathways of approach. The most appropriate pathways were integrated into the facilities and built asset management plan. Findings – The paper outlines a conceptual framework for formulating long term facilities and built asset management strategies to address adaptation to climate change. Research limitations/implications – The conceptual framework is validated by a single research case study, and further examples are needed to ensure validity of the approach in different facilities management contexts. Originality/value – This is the first paper to explore backcasting principles as part of facilities and built asset management planning.

Helping the Helpless: Contribution of Rural Extension Services to Smallholder Farmers’ Climate Change Adaptive Capacity and Adaptation in Rural Ghana

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 244-268 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Asare-Nuamah ◽  
Ebo Botchway ◽  
Justina A. Onumah
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Active Role ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Extension Services ◽  
Farming Communities ◽  
Multiple Strategies ◽  
Transfer Of Skills

While there is no doubt that extension services play an active role in promoting smallholder farmers’ adaptive capacity and adaptation to climate change, there is a dearth of information and research on how this institution champions climate change adaptation in rural farming communities in Ghana. This study employed a qualitative case study design and interviewed 15 extension officers and 26 smallholder farmers to understand how extension services enhance smallholder farmers’ climate change adaptive capacity and adaptation in the rural Adansi North District in Ghana. The findings indicate that extension services adopt multiple strategies to build the adaptive capacity of farmers to climate change. Through the transfer of skills and knowledge, technology and innovations, supply of inputs, technical advice and liaison role with existing local institutions, farmers are able to adapt to climate change. The study further revealed that extension services are hindered by geographical, sociocultural and economic challenges which affect their alignment and fitness to effectively assist smallholder farmers. The study recommends strengthening the capacity of the extension institution. Moreover, more experts must be trained to provide special, targeted and important services to smallholder farmers in respect of climate change sensitization and adaptation.

scholarly journals Water-Centric Nexus Approach for the Agriculture and Forest Sectors in Response to Climate Change in the Korean Peninsula

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1657
Author(s):  
Chul-Hee Lim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
Spatial Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Agricultural Water ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
The Future

Climate change has inherent multidisciplinary characteristics, and predicting the future of a single field of work has a limit. Therefore, this study proposes a water-centric nexus approach for the agriculture and forest sectors for improving the response to climate change in the Korean Peninsula. Two spatial models, i.e., Environmental Policy Integrated Climate and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs, were used to assess the extent of changes in agricultural water demand, forest water supply, and their balance at the watershed level in the current and future climatic conditions. Climate changed has increased the agricultural water demand and forest water supply significantly in all future scenarios and periods. Comparing the results with RCP8.5 2070s and the baseline, the agricultural water demand and forest water supply increased by 35% and 28%, respectively. Water balance assessment at the main watershed level in the Korean Peninsula revealed that although most scenarios of the future water supply increases offset the demand growth, a risk to water balance exists in case of a low forest ratio or smaller watershed. For instance, the western plains, which are the granary regions of South and North Korea, indicate a higher risk than other areas. These results show that the land-use balance can be an essential factor in a water-centric adaptation to climate change. Ultimately, the water-centric nexus approach can make synergies by overcoming increasing water demands attributable to climate change.

scholarly journals Simulation of the impact of climate change on runoff and drought in an arid and semiarid basin (the Hablehroud, Iran)

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Morteza Lotfirad ◽  
Arash Adib ◽  
Jaber Salehpoor ◽  
Afshin Ashrafzadeh ◽  
Ozgur Kisi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis study evaluates the impact of climate change (CC) on runoff and hydrological drought trends in the Hablehroud river basin in central Iran. We used a daily time series of minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax), and precipitation (PCP) for the baseline period (1982–2005) analysis. For future projections, we used the output of 23 CMIP5 GCMs and two scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; then, PCP, Tmin, and Tmax were projected in the future period (2025–2048). The GCMs were weighed based on the K-nearest neighbors algorithm. The results indicated a rising temperature in all months and increasing PCP in most months throughout the Hablehroud river basin's areas for the future period. The highest increase in the Tmin and Tmax in the south of the river basin under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively, was 1.87 °C and 1.80 °C. Furthermore, the highest reduction in the PCP was 54.88% in August under the RCP 4.5 scenario. The river flow was simulated by the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model. The annual runoff under the scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 declined by 11.44% and 13.13%, respectively. The basin runoff had a downward trend at the baseline period; however, it will have a downward trend in the RCP 4.5 scenario and an upward trend in the RCP 8.5 scenario for the future period. This study also analyzed drought by calculating the streamflow drought index for different time scales. Overall, the Hablehroud river basin will face short-term and medium-term hydrological drought in the future period.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document