scholarly journals The Impact of Individual Behaviors and Governmental Guidance Measures on Pandemic-Triggered Public Sentiment: Based on System Dynamics and Cross-Validation

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (8) ◽  
pp. 4245
Author(s):  
Hainan Huang ◽  
Weifan Chen ◽  
Tian Xie ◽  
Yaoyao Wei ◽  
Ziqing Feng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Positive Emotions ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Public Sentiment ◽  
Individual Behaviors ◽  
Positive Individual ◽  
Government Responsiveness ◽  
Negative Sentiment ◽  
The Impact

Negative online public sentiment generated by government mishandling of pandemics and other disasters can easily trigger widespread panic and distrust, causing great harm. It is important to understand the law of public sentiment dissemination and use it in a timely and appropriate way. Using the big data of online public sentiment during the COVID-19 period, this paper analyzes and establishes a cross-validation based public sentiment system dynamics model which can simulate the evolution processes of public sentiment under the effects of individual behaviors and governmental guidance measures. A concrete case of a violation of relevant regulations during COVID-19 epidemic that sparked public sentiment in China is introduced as a study sample to test the effectiveness of the proposed method. By running the model, the results show that an increase in government responsiveness contributes to the spread of positive social sentiment but also promotes negative sentiment. Positive individual behavior suppresses negative emotions while promoting the spread of positive emotions. Changes in the disaster context (epidemic) have an impact on the spread of sentiment, but the effect is mediocre.

A Simple Model for a Complex Issue

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 60-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan Qudrat-Ullah
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Treatment Programs ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Susceptible Population ◽  
Complex Issue ◽  
Biomedical Systems ◽  
Dynamic Simulation Model ◽  
Dynamics Models ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hiv Aids

System dynamics models can facilitate the understanding of complex and dynamic biomedical systems such as in HIV/AIDS. Untangling the dynamics among various population stocks (e.g., susceptible population, infected population, HIV population, AIDS population) can be used to investigate the effective points of interventions in the HIV/AIDS cycle. With that in mind, the authors have developed a system dynamics model that can be used to examine various policy decisions for the prevention and the treatment of HIV/AIDS. The specific objectives of their study was to examine the growing number of AIDS-related deaths in Canada. They used the authors’ dynamic simulation model to evaluate the impact of various HIV/AIDS policy intervention scenarios centred on the reduction of the number of AIDS deaths in Canada. Their analysis suggests that more lives will be saved if effective preventive and treatment programs are implemented simultaneously. A simultaneous implementation of these programs will also result in a much smaller HIV-infected and AIDS populations.

scholarly journals An Integrated Global Food and Energy Security System Dynamics Model for Addressing Systemic Risk

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (14) ◽  
pp. 3995 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Pasqualino ◽  
Irene Monasterolo ◽  
Aled Jones
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Land Development ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Food

In 1972, The Limits to Growth, using the World3 System Dynamics model, modeled for the first time the long-term risk of food security, which would emerge from the complex relation between capital and population growth within the limits of the planet. In this paper, we present a novel system dynamics model to explore the short-term dynamics of the food and energy system within the wider global economic framework. By merging structures of the World3, Money, and Macroeconomy Dynamics (MMD) and the Energy Transition and the Economy (ETE) models, we present a closed system global economy model, where growth is driven by population growth and government debt. The agricultural sector is a general disequilibrium productive sector grounded on World3, where capital investment and land development decisions are made to meet population food need, thus generating cascade demands for the energy and capital sector. Energy and Capital Sectors employ a more standard economic approach in line with MMD and ETE. By taking into account the role of financial, real, and natural capital, the model can be used to explore alternative scenarios driven by uncertainty and risk, such as climate extreme events and their impacts on food production. The paper presents scenario analysis of the impact of an exogenous price, production, and subsidies shock in the food and/or energy dimensions on the economic system, understanding the sources of potential cascade effects, thus providing a systemic risk assessment tool to inform global food security policies.

scholarly journals A System Dynamics Model of Online Stores’ Sales: Positive and Negative E-WOM and Promotion Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (21) ◽  
pp. 6045 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang Yan ◽  
Simin Zhou ◽  
Xiaoyan Zhang ◽  
Ye Li
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Real Data ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Sustainable Operations ◽  
Main Research ◽  
Interaction Diagram ◽  
Online Stores ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, we build a causal interaction diagram between the factors that may influence the sales and profits of online stores. An online store’s real operation data were used to help determine the causal relationship between variables. Finally, we proposed a system dynamics model and conducted a simulation of the operation of an online store. In this model, we focused on the impact of promotion and positive/negative electronic word of mouth (e-WOM) on the sales and profits of the online stores. The simulation results showed a similar trend to the real data and the main research finding showed that promotion is not a long-term measure for the sustainable development of online stores. Excessive promotion effort may lead to consumers’ dissatisfaction leading the increase of negative e-WOM. The systematic simulation can help us understand better the long-term effect of promotion and e-WOM on the operation of online stores. Finally, we gave some management suggestions for online stores’ sustainable operations.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 on Port Production and Operation Based on System Dynamics: A Case Study of Shanghai Port in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Zili Tai ◽  
Ji Guo ◽  
Yeli Guan ◽  
Qingquan Shi
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Production Efficiency ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Logistics Network ◽  
Cargo Transport ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Production And Operation

Since the end of 2019, the outbreak of COVID-19 has severely affected port production and operation. There is little research on the systematic impact assessment. This study took Shanghai Port as an example and evaluated the impact under different scenarios through establishing a System Dynamics model. It is found that the epidemic mainly has a greater impact on passenger transport, but less on cargo transport. The ports with the function of transportation in highway, railway, and waterway were the key nodes in the international logistics network. More attention should be paid to the impact assessment of COVID-19 on ports’ production and operation. It is necessary to strengthen the port’s collection and distribution capabilities, improve port production efficiency, and further strengthen port modernization. This research method proposed in this paper can provide a reference for the impact assessment of similar events, and the empirical results can provide a reference for handling the epidemic shock for the port and shipping departments.

scholarly journals A System Dynamics Model of Employees’ Performance

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (16) ◽  
pp. 6511
Author(s):  
Mudhafar Alefari ◽  
Mohammed Almanei ◽  
Konstantinos Salonitis
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Employee Performance ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
Overall Performance ◽  
Flow Diagrams ◽  
Dynamics Models ◽  
The Impact

Employee performance is dynamic and can have great impact on the overall performance of any company and its sustainability. A number of factors that can be controlled by the company can affect the employees’ performance. The present paper starts with a thorough literature review for identifying these key driving in order to develop a system dynamics models that will be able to assess different improvement scenarios and initiatives. Based on causal loop diagrams, stock and flow diagrams are developed and solved using system dynamics theory. The model developed can be used for organizations to assess the impact of different improvement initiatives.

scholarly journals Research on Behavior Model of Rumor Maker Based on System Dynamics

Complexity ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoqian Zhu ◽  
Fengming Liu
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
Negative Attitude ◽  
Flow Diagram ◽  
Personal Factors ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Causal Diagram ◽  
Personal Learning ◽  
Stock Flow ◽  
The Impact

Laws of rumor makers’ behaviors are the root of curbing rumor and effective way to block rumor occurrence. Therefore, based on system dynamics model, this paper proposed the rumors behavior evolution model of rumor makers, aimed at discovering the laws of rumor makers’ behaviors to achieve rumors blocking. First, by refining the driving factors in disinformation behavior, we constructed causal diagram of disinformation behavior evolution; secondly, by means of causal diagram, we constructed stock-flow diagram for quantitative analysis; finally, simulation experiment was carried out by using Vensim Personal Learning Edition software (Vensim PLE). The results showed that negative attitude is a major factor in the occurrence of disinformation behavior; personal factors are more pronounced than the factors of social and government on the impact of disinformation propensity score.

Study on Urban Sustainable Development Based on System Dynamics

2014 ◽  
Vol 587-589 ◽  
pp. 171-175
Author(s):  
Jian Ping Li ◽  
Han Ming Duan ◽  
Min Qiu
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Urban Sustainable Development ◽  
The Status ◽  
City System ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

A system dynamics model of urban sustainable development is provided, and the impact of different development modes on the city system is explored. Statistical data of Yinchuan, a city in northwest China, is utilized to build the model which shows the population-economy- environment relationship. Four development modes are proposed, and they are maintaining the status quo, developing secondary industry, developing tertiary industry, developing economy and society together. The system dynamics model is employed to analyze the interaction between population, economy and environment. According to simulation of the system dynamics model, impact of development modes on the city system is predicted. Furthermore, suggestions on improving the sustainability of urban development are put forward. In a word, the paper presents a new idea for the study on urban sustainable development in northwest China.

scholarly journals The Impact of Price Subsidy on Rice Self-Sufficiency Level in Malaysia: A System Dynamics Approach

2018 ◽  
pp. 801-806
Author(s):  
Farah Hanim Abdul Rahim ◽  
Nurul Nazihahhawari ◽  
Norhaslinda Zainal Abidin
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Local Production ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Price Subsidy ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The Malaysian government had targeted for the rice industry in the country to achieve 100% rice self-sufficiency where Malaysia’s rice self-sufficiency level (SSL) is currently at 65% to 75%. Thus, the government had implemented few policies to increase the rice production in Malaysia to meet the growing demand of rice. This paper focus on analyzing the impact of price subsidy on the rice production system in Malaysia using a system dynamics modelling approach. Scenario analysis was conducted using the developed system dynamics model by making changes on the price subsidy and observe the impact of the changes on the rice production and rice SSL. The developed system dynamics model offers better understanding of the effect of price subsidy on the rice self-sufficiency level. Based on the scenario analysis, the result shows that a 50% increase in the price subsidy leads to a substantial increase in demand as the rice price drops. Accordingly, the local production increases by 15%. However, the SSL slightly decreases as the local production is insufficient to meet the large demand.

scholarly journals Examining budget policies for new and existing facilities: a system dynamics approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (6) ◽  
pp. 511-522 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roozbeh Rashedi ◽  
Tarek Hegazy
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Life Cycle Cost ◽  
Budget Allocation ◽  
Condition Index ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Impact

Sustaining acceptable service in large facility networks is a complex task, particularly under limited budgets, rapid deterioration, and increasing service demands. Policy-makers are, therefore, challenged to make efficient balance between the construction of new facilities and the renewal of existing ones to suit both the short and the long-term needs. To support policy-makers, this paper proposes an efficient decision support system using the system dynamics simulation technique to analyze the impact of various budget allocation policies and to optimize policy decisions. The proposed system dynamics model was tested using a case study from the Toronto District School Board involving more than 400 schools. It can find the optimum budgeting strategy that minimizes the overall facility condition index and total life cycle cost over a long-term strategic plan. The system dynamics model proved its ability to find a budget allocation policy with much better results than the typical enrolment-based approach.

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