scholarly journals Epidemiological Trends of Malaria in Five Years and under Children of Nsanje District in Malawi, 2015–2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (23) ◽  
pp. 12784
Author(s):  
Theodore Gondwe ◽  
Yongi Yang ◽  
Simeon Yosefe ◽  
Maisa Kasanga ◽  
Griffin Mulula ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
District Hospital ◽  
Malaria Incidence ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Morbidity And Mortality ◽  
Major Public Health Problem ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Malaria Morbidity ◽  
Moving Average Model ◽  
Predicted Values

Background: Malaria continues to be a major public health problem in Malawi and the greatest load of mortality and morbidity occurs in children five years and under. However, there is no information yet regarding trends and predictions of malaria incidence in children five years and under at district hospital level, particularly at Nsanje district hospital. Aim: Therefore, this study aimed at investigating the trends of malaria morbidity and mortality in order to design appropriate interventions on the best approach to contain the disease in the near future. Methodology: Trend analysis of malaria morbidity and mortality together with time series analysis using the SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model was used to predict malaria incidence in Nsanje district. Results: The SARIMA model used malaria cases from 2015 to 2019 and created the best model to forecast the malaria cases in Nsanje from 2020 to 2022. An SARIMA (0, 1, 2) (0,1,1)12 was suitable for forecasting the incidence of malaria for Nsanje. Conclusion: The mortality and morbidity trend showed that malaria cases were growing at a fluctuating rate at Nsanje district hospital. The relative errors between the actual values and predicted values indicated that the predicted values matched the actual values well. Therefore, the model proved that it was adequate to forecast monthly malaria cases and it had a good fit, hence, was appropriate for this study

scholarly journals Ten year cardio-cerebro-vascular mortality and morbidity in a Southern Italy cohort: the VIP Project data

2015 ◽  
Vol 80 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincenzo Capuano ◽  
Norman Lamaida ◽  
Sergio Torre ◽  
Ernesto Capuano ◽  
Maria Immacolata Borrelli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Diseases ◽  
Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Geographical Area ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Local Analysis ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Major Public Health Problem ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
European Standard Population

Rationale: In Italy the mortality data were obtained almost exclusively from the data RENCAM (Name Causes of Death Register), while there are few prospective surveys. In order to assess whether there are particular epidemiological conditions in the geographical area of Mercato S. Severino, in Southern Italy, we have studied, and reassessed at ten years (1998/99 - 2008/09), a cohort of adult general population in a project of cardiovascular epidemiology and prevention. Materials and Methods: We calculated the rates of mortality and morbidity from cardiovascular events covering the period 1998/99 - 2008/09, in a cohort of 1200 persons (600 men and 600 women) aged 25 to 74 years. Data were standardized using the European standard population. Results: Mortality from cardiovascular causes was 46,5% in men and 48,7% in women; it was mainly concentrated in the age group 65-74 years where it occurred on 62,9% of deaths in men and 66,7% in women. Regarding morbidity, the incidence of events to ten years of non-fatal myocardial infarction was 2,2% in men and of 1,8% in women. PTCA interventions to ten year have been 3,3% in men and 3,4% in women, the interventions of aorto-coronary bypass have been 2,4% and 0,5% for men and women respectively. While all major cardiovascular events have been more frequent in men, in women there was a higher incidence of stroke (1,6% vs 0,9%). Conclusions: Although by comparison with other European countries Italy is among the countries considered at low-risk of coronary heart disease, in Campania cardiovascular diseases reach higher rates than the rest of the country. Our results are in line with the literature data and confirm that cardiovascular diseases are a major public health problem. Local analysis to propose means to provide useful information for planning prevention interventions targeted to their own territory.

scholarly journals Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on the Incidence of Respiratory Infections During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in Korea: A Nationwide Surveillance Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyungmin Huh ◽  
Jaehun Jung ◽  
Jinwook Hong ◽  
MinYoung Kim ◽  
Jong Gyun Ahn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Respiratory Infections ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Intervention Period ◽  
Moving Average Model ◽  
Nationwide Surveillance ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Government ◽  
Predicted Values ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract Background Many countries have implemented nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to slow the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We aimed to determine whether NPIs led to the decline in the incidences of respiratory infections. Methods We conducted a retrospective, ecological study using a nationwide notifiable diseases database and a respiratory virus sample surveillance collected from January 2016 through July 2020 in the Republic of Korea. Intervention period was defined as February–July 2020, when the government implemented NPIs nationwide. Observed incidences in the intervention period were compared with the predicted incidences by an autoregressive integrated moving average model and the 4-year mean cumulative incidences (CuIs) in the same months of the preintervention period. Results Five infectious diseases met the inclusion criteria: chickenpox, mumps, invasive pneumococcal disease, scarlet fever, and pertussis. The incidences of chickenpox and mumps during the intervention period were significantly lower than the prediction model. The CuIs (95% confidence interval) of chickenpox and mumps were 36.4% (23.9–76.3%) and 63.4% (48.0–93.3%) of the predicted values. Subgroup analysis showed that the decrease in the incidence was universal for chickenpox, while mumps showed a marginal reduction among those aged <18 years, but not in adults. The incidence of respiratory viruses was significantly lower than both the predicted incidence (19.5%; 95% confidence interval, 11.8–55.4%) and the 4-year mean CuIs in the preintervention period (24.5%; P < .001). Conclusions The implementation of NPIs was associated with a significant reduction in the incidences of several respiratory infections in Korea.

scholarly journals Participatory Research for Preventing Pesticide-Related DSH and Suicide in Sundarban, India: A Brief Report

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arabinda N. Chowdhury ◽  
Sohini Banerjee ◽  
Arabinda Brahma ◽  
Mrinal K. Biswas
Keyword(s):  
Participatory Research ◽  
Community Based Participatory Research ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Local Context ◽  
Major Public Health Problem ◽  
Group Discussions ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Agricultural Community ◽  
Admission Data ◽  
And Training

Deliberate self-harm (DSH) is a major public health problem in the Sundarban region, India. This study is aimed to develop a DSH-suicide prevention programme based on the principles of community-based participatory research (CBPR). Perception and opinion of community about the problem of pesticide-related DSH and suicide were elicited in a series of facilitated focus group discussions in Namkhana block of Sundarban region. Based on their suggestion, a broad preventive programme was launched involving the development of information, education, and communication (IEC) and training modules and training of the stakeholders of the block. Most of the members of each target group found that the IEC materials were culture fair (message is acceptable, understandable, and meaningful in the local context) and very useful. Analysis of Dwariknagar BPHC, DSH admission data showed a definite reduction of DSH incidents after this CBPR approach to prevention was initiated. Similar model of DSH prevention in the other blocks of Sundarban region or in agricultural community may help to reduce the enormous mortality and morbidity from pesticide-related DSH and suicide.

scholarly journals Statistical Methods for Predicting Malaria Incidences Using Data from Sudan

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid H. Hussien ◽  
Fathy H. Eissa ◽  
Khidir E. Awadalla
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Malaria Incidence ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Transformation Method ◽  
Transformation Model ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Moving Average Model ◽  
Using Data

Malaria is the leading cause of illness and death in Sudan. The entire population is at risk of malaria epidemics with a very high burden on government and population. The usefulness of forecasting methods in predicting the number of future incidences is needed to motivate the development of a system that can predict future incidences. The objective of this paper is to develop applicable and understood time series models and to find out what method can provide better performance to predict future incidences level. We used monthly incidence data collected from five states in Sudan with unstable malaria transmission. We test four methods of the forecast: (1) autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA); (2) exponential smoothing; (3) transformation model; and (4) moving average. The result showed that transformation method performed significantly better than the other methods for Gadaref, Gazira, North Kordofan, and Northern, while the moving average model performed significantly better for Khartoum. Future research should combine a number of different and dissimilar methods of time series to improve forecast accuracy with the ultimate aim of developing a simple and useful model for producing reasonably reliable forecasts of the malaria incidence in the study area.

scholarly journals O enfermeiro na assistência à mulher com câncer de colo uterino

2015 ◽  
pp. 19
Author(s):  
Carla Monteiro Santos ◽  
Doralice De Almeida Nascimento Silva ◽  
Gleise Gonçalves Passos da Silva ◽  
Tatiana Santana de Oliveira ◽  
Luiz Faustino dos Santos Maia
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Care ◽  
Cervical Cancer ◽  
Health Problem ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Morbidity And Mortality ◽  
Major Public Health Problem ◽  
Care Practices ◽  
Multiple Health

O Câncer de Colo Uterino apresenta nos dias atuais um grande problema de saúde pública no Brasil, necessitando cada vez mais de profissionais capacitados para o combate a essa doença maligna, minimizando sua morbimortalidade. Neste âmbito podemos destacar o Papel do enfermeiro como fundamental na transformação dessa realidade que vivemos hoje. O enfermeiro atua tanto no sentido de assistir, coordenar as práticas de cuidado, quanto no sentido de educar, promover, proteger, reabilitar essas mulheres, de forma autônoma, criativa e ativa nos múltiplos níveis de atenção à saúde, através do levantamento de hipóteses analíticas e intervenções sistematizadas de rotinas de cuidados, subsidiando falhas e promovendo continuidade e resolutividade do cuidado em saúde.Descritores: Câncer de Colo Uterino, Mulher, Enfermagem. Nurses in care woman with cervical cancerAbstract: The Cancer Cervical presents nowadays a major public health problem in Brazil, requiring more and more trained professionals to combat this evil disease, minimizing morbidity and mortality. In this context we can highlight the nurse's role as fundamental in transforming this reality we live in today. The nurse acts both to assist coordinate care practices, as to educate, promote, protect, rehabilitate these women in an autonomous, creative and active in multiple health care levels, through the lifting of analytical assumptions systematized and interventions care routines, subsidizing failure and promoting continuity and resolution of health care. Descriptors: Cervical Cancer, Women, Nursing. Enfermero en la atención la mujer con cáncer de cuello uterinoResumen: Los regalos del cáncer de cuello uterino hoy en día un importante problema de salud pública en Brasil, lo que requiere cada vez más capacitados profesionales para combatir esta enfermedad mal, lo que minimiza la morbilidad y la mortalidad. En este contexto cabe destacar el papel de la enfermera tan fundamental en la transformación de esta realidad que vivimos hoy. La enfermera actúa tanto para ayudar, coordinar las prácticas de atención, como para educar, promover, proteger, rehabilitar a estas mujeres en un autónomas, creativas y activas en múltiples niveles de atención de salud, a través de la elevación de supuestos analíticos rutinas sistematizados y las intervenciones de atención, subsidiando el fracaso y la promoción de la continuidad y de la resolución de la atención sanitaria. Descriptores: Cáncer de Cuello Uterino, Mujer, Enfermería.

scholarly journals Forecasting of salmonellosis epidemic proces in Ukraine using autoregressive integrated moving average model

2020 ◽  
pp. 346-354
Author(s):  
Serhii Bohdanov ◽  
Yulia Polyvianna ◽  
Tetyana Chumachenko ◽  
Dmytro Chumachenko
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Average Model ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average Model ◽  
Moving Average Model ◽  
Complex Models ◽  
Optimal Values ◽  
Predicted Values

The article highlights the problem of salmonellosis among the population of the Kharkov region, Ukraine. Three time series were used for calculations: a series of incidence rates for men, a series of incidence rates for women and a series of incidence rates for the general population, each of the series was an ordered set of monthly values from December 2015 to December 2018. It was revealed that the most effective tool for analyzing these statistical data is the use of the autoregressive moving average model (ARIMA). The following steps were used: identification and replacement of outliers, the use of smoothing and decomposition of the series. The developed model allows you to explicitly indicate the order of the model using the arima () function or automatically generate a set of optimal values (p, d, q) using the auto.arima () function. The validated model allows to calculate the predicted values of the incidence of salmonellosis for 50 days. In certain cases, models of exponential smoothing are able to give forecasts that are not inferior in accuracy to forecasts obtained using more complex models.

scholarly journals Predictability of Scrub Typhus Incidences Time Series in Thailand

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 44
Author(s):  
Valeria Bondarenko ◽  
Pierre Mazzega ◽  
Claire Lajaunie
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Long Memory ◽  
Scrub Typhus ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Reference Level ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Motion Models ◽  
Moving Average Model

Scrub typhus, an infectious disease caused by a bacterium transmitted by “chigger” mites, constitutes a public health problem in Thailand. Predicting epidemic peaks would allow implementing preventive measures locally. This study analyses the predictability of the time series of incidence of scrub typhus aggregated at the provincial level. After stationarizing the time series, the evaluation of the Hurst exponents indicates the provinces where the epidemiological dynamics present a long memory and are predictable. The predictive performances of ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average model), ARFIMA (autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average) and fractional Brownian motion models are evaluated. The results constitute the reference level for the predictability of the incidence data of this zoonosis.

scholarly journals Six Year Trend Analysis of Malaria Prevalence in Bati District, Northeastern Ethiopia: A Retrospective Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chala Daba ◽  
Edosa Kebede ◽  
Amanuel Atamo ◽  
Semere Reda
Keyword(s):  
Retrospective Study ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Malaria Incidence ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Malaria Prevalence ◽  
Major Public Health Problem ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background: Malaria is still the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in developing countries including Ethiopia. Ethiopia is planned to minimize forty percent of malaria incidence at the end of 2020 by applying different prevention and control method. There is limited information about trend of malaria in the study area. Therefore, this study was designed to address this gap. Methods: Institutional based retrospective study was conducted from to determine a six-year trend analysis of malaria prevalence in the Bati district. All malaria cases were carefully reviewed by trained laboratory technologists from the laboratory record books of Bati hospital and health center. The data was entered in to excel 2013 and descriptive statistics were used to determine frequencies and percentages of malaria cases, trends of malaria transmission in terms of years and seasonal distribution. Result: A total of 84,269 and 22,185 malaria suspected patients were requested for blood films and Rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) respectively. Of this, 12,032 (11.3%) malaria cases were microscopically confirmed. Plasmodium falciparum were the most dominant parasite detected, which accounted for 57.6 %. The highest peak of malaria cases was reported during the summer season. The majority of the cases (57.2%) were reported among the >15 years age groupConclusion: Malaria is still a major public health problem in the study area. In order to decrease the number of malaria cases further, government, all healthcare workers, and community should strengthen and scale up malaria prevention and control strategies in the study area.

scholarly journals Temporal Modeling of Dengue Fever: A Comprehensive Literature Review

2019 ◽  
Vol 967 ◽  
pp. 15-21
Author(s):  
Aswi ◽  
Susanna Cramb ◽  
Gentry White ◽  
Wen Biao Hu ◽  
Kerrie Mengersen
Keyword(s):  
Dengue Fever ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Web Of Science ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Major Public Health Problem ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Temporal Modeling ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

Dengue fever has become a major public health problem in several countries. This paper aims to review and compare a number of temporal modeling approaches that have been proposed for predicting or forecasting the occurrence of dengue fever. This review also examines influential covariates considered in these studies. A comprehensive literature search was undertaken in September 2018, using Medline (via Ebscohost), ProQuest, Scopus, and Web of Science electronic databases. The search was confined to articles in English, published in refereed journals between January 2000 and September 2018. The most popular approach to temporal modeling of dengue was found to be an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. A limited number of studies applied Bayesian hierarchical dynamic generalized linear models. Climatic variables were most commonly associated with dengue incidence for temporal modeling.

scholarly journals Deforestation and malaria incidence in the legal Amazon Region between 1996 and 2012

2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raphael Mendonça Guimarães ◽  
Bárbara Campos Valente ◽  
Priscila Almeida Faria ◽  
Lásaro Linhares Stephanelli ◽  
Juliana Valentim Chaiblich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Problem ◽  
Malaria Incidence ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Amazon Region ◽  
Great Variability ◽  
Major Public Health Problem ◽  
Crude Rate ◽  
Deforestation Rate ◽  
Historical Series

Abstract Malaria is a major public health problem, and Brazil is the largest contributor in America to the number of cases. In the country, the Amazon concentrates around 99.5% of the cases. This article aims to compare trends in deforestation rate and the parasite index of malaria in the Amazon region between 1996 and 2012. The annual crude rate of deforestation and the Annual Parasite Index (API) of malaria between 1996 and 2012 were estimated. The rate of deforestation has great variability among the states every year, and a similar situation is observed for malaria API over the studied period. There are important variations across the states within this period. The historical series of crude deforestation rate and malaria API have markedly similar trends; with a 1-2 years lag between them, suggesting that the occurrence of fluctuations in deforestation numbers impacts malaria numbers in a period immediately following. The mapping of deforested areas and the analysis of temporal series are therefore useful in the analysis of malaria.

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