scholarly journals Considerations for Developing Predictive Spatial Models of Crime and New Methods for Measuring Their Accuracy

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 597
Author(s):  
Chaitanya Joshi ◽  
Sophie Curtis-Ham ◽  
Clayton D’Ath ◽  
Deane Searle
Keyword(s):  
Expected Utility ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Spatial Models ◽  
Utility Measure ◽  
Multiple Measures ◽  
Accuracy Index ◽  
New Methods ◽  
Independent Evaluation ◽  
Crime Modeling ◽  
Further Development

A literature review of the important trends in predictive crime modeling and the existing measures of accuracy was undertaken. It highlighted the need for a robust, comprehensive and independent evaluation and the need to include complementary measures for a more complete assessment. We develop a new measure called the penalized predictive accuracy index (PPAI), propose the use of the expected utility function to combine multiple measures and the use of the average logarithmic score, which measures accuracy differently than existing measures. The measures are illustrated using hypothetical examples. We illustrate how PPAI could identify the best model for a given problem, as well as how the expected utility measure can be used to combine different measures in a way that is the most appropriate for the problem at hand. It is important to develop measures that empower the practitioner with the ability to input the choices and preferences that are most appropriate for the problem at hand and to combine multiple measures. The measures proposed here go some way towards providing this ability. Further development along these lines is needed.

Cartographic production in Russia: main stages and trends

2020 ◽  
Vol 963 (9) ◽  
pp. 30-43
Author(s):  
M.Yu. Orlov
Keyword(s):  
Chronological Order ◽  
Xviii Century ◽  
New Methods ◽  
Current State ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
The Future ◽  
History Of ◽  
State Enterprises ◽  
Further Development

Studying the current state of cartography and ways of further developing the industry, the role of the map in the future of the society, new methods of promoting cartographic products is impossible without a deep scientific analyzing all the paths, events and factors influencing its formation and development throughout all the historic steps of cartographic production in Russia. In the article, the history of cartographic production in Russia is considered together with the development of private, state and military cartography, since, despite some differences, they have a common technical, technological and production basis. The author describes the stages of originating, formation and growth of industrial cartographic production from the beginning of the XVIII century until now. The connection between the change of political formations and technological structures with the mentioned stages of maps and atlases production is considered. Each stage is studied in detail, a step-by-step analysis was carried out, and the characteristics of each stage are described. All the events and facts are given in chronological order, highlighting especially significant moments influencing the evolution of cartographic production. The data on the volumes of printing and sales of atlases and maps by commercial and state enterprises are presented. The main trends and lines of further development of cartographic production in Russia are studied.

CHARACTERISTICS OF ORGANIZING AND MANAGING SALES ACTIVITIES USING THE EXAMPLE OF “OOO LAMZUR”

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 1001-1015
Author(s):  
E.A. Leonenko ◽  
◽  
S.V. Kunev ◽  
N.N. Chindyaykina ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Visual Analysis ◽  
Distribution Channels ◽  
Enterprise Management ◽  
Competitive Advantages ◽  
New Methods ◽  
Confectionery Products ◽  
Marketing Activities ◽  
Further Development

In modern conditions, the further development of the market economy puts each subject of economic activity in very difficult conditions. For the survival and effective functioning of an organization, it is no longer enough to simply produce goods in the maximum possible volume, it is especially important to sell these goods. The significant role of sales activities in the enterprise management requires searching for new methods of improvement, one of which is the revision of existing and the development of new optimal distribution channels under conditions of environmental uncertainty. Currently, distribution channels for final products are a complex multi-structure system with active elements, operating in a dynamically developing market environment. Studies by economists show that the complexity (complexity) of this system is based not on the number of elements, but on the nature of the network structure (the complexity of the structure of the system and the interactions of its components). This article presents a visual analysis of the sales activities of one of the largest Russian confectionery manufacturers - “OOO Lamzur”. For this kind of enterprises, the organization of sales activities is very important in ensuring economic efficiency and achieving high competitive advantages. In the marketing activities of the investigated enterprise, a number of problem areas are identified that impede its development. In the process of analyzing sales activities, a number of shortcomings were noted, the key of which is the loss by the enterprise of such sales functions as establishing feedback with consumers. In the course of the study, the effectiveness of the marketing activities of “OOO Lamzur” was assessed based on the analysis of the dynamics of sales of confectionery products, as well as by interviewing customers.

scholarly journals End-to-End Game-Focused Learning of Adversary Behavior in Security Games

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (02) ◽  
pp. 1378-1386
Author(s):  
Andrew Perrault ◽  
Bryan Wilder ◽  
Eric Ewing ◽  
Aditya Mate ◽  
Bistra Dilkina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Expected Utility ◽  
Optimization Problem ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Experimental Results ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Security Games ◽  
End To End ◽  
Feature Values ◽  
Adversary Model

Stackelberg security games are a critical tool for maximizing the utility of limited defense resources to protect important targets from an intelligent adversary. Motivated by green security, where the defender may only observe an adversary's response to defense on a limited set of targets, we study the problem of learning a defense that generalizes well to a new set of targets with novel feature values and combinations. Traditionally, this problem has been addressed via a two-stage approach where an adversary model is trained to maximize predictive accuracy without considering the defender's optimization problem. We develop an end-to-end game-focused approach, where the adversary model is trained to maximize a surrogate for the defender's expected utility. We show both in theory and experimental results that our game-focused approach achieves higher defender expected utility than the two-stage alternative when there is limited data.

An Exploratory Study of the Discovery and Selection of Design Methods in Practice

2016 ◽  
Vol 138 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kilian Gericke ◽  
Julia Kramer ◽  
Celeste Roschuni
Keyword(s):  
Communities Of Practice ◽  
Professional Practice ◽  
Exploratory Study ◽  
Design Methods ◽  
Web Based ◽  
New Methods ◽  
Potential Link ◽  
The Rich ◽  
Further Development ◽  
Selection Of

This work seeks to understand how design practitioners discover, select, and adapt design methods and methodologies. Design methods and methodologies are mainly used for educational purposes and are not formally transferred into design practice and industry. This prevents design practitioners from accessing the rich body of research and knowledge posed by academia. Various web platforms and textbooks allow users to discover or search for design methods, but little support is provided to assess whether or not a method is appropriate for the context or the task at hand. In this exploratory study, interviews were conducted with practicing engineers and designers. Interview responses were coded and analyzed in an effort to understand the patterns in searching, selecting, assessing, and exchanging experiences with peers in professional practice. This analysis showed that interviewees would like to search for design methods based on their desired outcomes. Additionally, interviewees considered their personal contacts to be the most valuable source of new methods. These insights show that web-based communities of practice may be a potential link between academia and industry, but existing web repositories and communities require further development in order to better meet the needs of the design practitioner community.

scholarly journals Anthelmintic Resistance in Equine Nematodes – A Review on the Current Situation, with Emphasis in Europe

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (2) ◽  
pp. 132
Author(s):  
Pedro Afonso SILVA ◽  
Mihai CERNEA ◽  
Luís MADEIRA de CARVALHO
Keyword(s):  
Broad Spectrum ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Anthelmintic Resistance ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Diagnostic Methods ◽  
New Drugs ◽  
General Review ◽  
New Methods ◽  
Further Development ◽  
Horse Farm

Since the introduction of the last equine broad-spectrum anthelmintic group in the 1980’s, the investment in new drugs to control horse’s parasites did not result in new advancements. These drugs allowed a very effective and extensive control of equine nematodes through successful interval dosing programs, firstly introduced in the 1960’s. However, the widespread and indiscriminate use of anthelmintics in these intensive treatments have led to increasing resistance in the major equine nematodes. Reports of reduced effectiveness are virtually worldwide and repercussions in livestock production farms have already been seen.Based on recent questionnaires about horse farm practices, preventive measures and international recommendations, it is clear that most of them are still not being widely implemented. It is also clear that these recommendations are outdated and new approaches must be considered to correctly tackle this rapidly evolving issue in horse management, as more accurate diagnostic methods are currently available, such as Mini-FLOTAC. This article intends to do a general review of the history and current situation of anthelmintic resistance in horses, with emphasis in Europe, as well as, how to diagnose and delay or even prevent its further development, mentioning new methods of diagnostic and directions in which to develop research.

Personnel security in Police Forces

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (37) ◽  
pp. 21-30
Author(s):  
Robert Gwardyński ◽  
Agnieszka Winiarska
Keyword(s):  
Efficient Implementation ◽  
Public Order ◽  
New Methods ◽  
Police Personnel ◽  
Personnel Safety ◽  
State Of Affairs ◽  
Further Development ◽  
And Training ◽  
Police Forces

Personnel security in Police Forces is of utmost importance for this institution since it contributes to the efficient implementation by the latter of its statutory tasks related to protecting people, and to maintaining public order and security. In order to find new methods of further development and training of the police, researchers should take into account the issue of police personnel safety understood as a certain state of affairs and a process. The authors of this publication define the term of personnel safety and point out to the reader its importance for the efficiency of activities undertaken by the Police.

Pentelethen

1973 ◽  
Vol 68 ◽  
pp. 349-353 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. E. Wycherley
Keyword(s):  
Common Sense ◽  
Scientific Research ◽  
Coarse Grained ◽  
New Methods ◽  
The Common ◽  
Greek Sculpture ◽  
Further Development

One might give as sub-title ‘Attic Marble: Science and Common Sense’. The names by which Greek marbles are usually known have been gravely questioned in recent years. In a very important article in the Annual for 1968, Mr. Colin Renfrew and Mr. J. Springer Peacey emphasized the need for more scientific research and further development of new methods before one could safely attach the common labels—‘Pentelic’, ‘Hymettan,’ ‘Parian,’ ‘Naxian,’ or ‘Island’. ‘Most of the attributions hitherto made’, they said, ‘and hence the various observations based on them, are not well founded’; and later, ‘If “Hymettan” merely means “finegrained grey”, and “Naxian” simply “coarse-grained white” there seems little point in using the geographic terms. Such a usage denies the hope that the origin of the various marble used for Greek sculpture may one day be better understood.’

Effectiveness measure for TAO model of three-way decisions with interval set

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Chunmao Jiang ◽  
Doudou Guo ◽  
Lijuan Sun
Keyword(s):  
Utility Function ◽  
Expected Utility ◽  
Measurement Method ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Utility Measure ◽  
The Third ◽  
Effectiveness Measure ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Utility Measures

The basic idea of the three-way decisions (3WD) is ‘thinking in threes.’ The TAO (trisecting-acting-outcome) model of 3WD includes three components, trisect a whole into three reasonable regions, devise a corresponding strategy on the trisection, and measure the effectiveness of the outcome. By reviewing existing studies, we found that only a few papers touch upon the third component, i.e., measure the effect. This paper’s principal aim is to present an effectiveness measure framework consisting of three parts: a specific TAO model - Change-based TAO model, interval sets, and utility functions with unique characteristics. Specifically, the change-based TAO model provides a method to measure effectiveness based on the difference before and after applying a strategy or an action. First, we use interval sets to represent these changes when a strategy or an action is applied. These changes correspond to three different intervals. Second, we use the utility measurement method to figure out three change intervals. Namely, different utility measures correspond to the different intervals, concave utility metric, direct utility metric, and convex utility metric, respectively. Third, it aggregates the toll utility through the joint of the three utilities mentioned above. The weights among these three are adjusted by a dual expected utility function that conveys the decision-makers’ preferences. We give an example and experiment highlighting the validity and practicability of the utility measure method in the change-based TAO model of three-way decisions.

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