scholarly journals Spatial Prediction of Aftershocks Triggered by a Major Earthquake: A Binary Machine Learning Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 462 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sadra Karimzadeh ◽  
Masashi Matsuoka ◽  
Jianming Kuang ◽  
Linlin Ge
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Spatial Prediction ◽  
Synthetic Aperture ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Coulomb Stress Change ◽  
K Nearest Neighbors ◽  
Radar Imagery

Small earthquakes following a large event in the same area are typically aftershocks, which are usually less destructive than mainshocks. These aftershocks are considered mainshocks if they are larger than the previous mainshock. In this study, records of aftershocks (M > 2.5) of the Kermanshah Earthquake (M 7.3) in Iran were collected from the first second following the event to the end of September 2018. Different machine learning (ML) algorithms, including naive Bayes, k-nearest neighbors, a support vector machine, and random forests were used in conjunction with the slip distribution, Coulomb stress change on the source fault (deduced from synthetic aperture radar imagery), and orientations of neighboring active faults to predict the aftershock patterns. Seventy percent of the aftershocks were used for training based on a binary (“yes” or “no”) logic to predict locations of all aftershocks. While untested on independent datasets, receiver operating characteristic results of the same dataset indicate ML methods outperform routine Coulomb maps regarding the spatial prediction of aftershock patterns, especially when details of neighboring active faults are available. Logistic regression results, however, do not show significant differences with ML methods, as hidden information is likely better discovered using logistic regression analysis.

scholarly journals Machine Learning Outperforms Logistic Regression Analysis to Predict Next-Season NHL Player Injury: An Analysis of 2322 Players From 2007 to 2017

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. 232596712095340
Author(s):  
Bryan C. Luu ◽  
Audrey L. Wright ◽  
Heather S. Haeberle ◽  
Jaret M. Karnuta ◽  
Mark S. Schickendantz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Injury Risk ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
National Hockey League ◽  
K Nearest Neighbors ◽  
Machine Learning Model

Background: The opportunity to quantitatively predict next-season injury risk in the National Hockey League (NHL) has become a reality with the advent of advanced computational processors and machine learning (ML) architecture. Unlike static regression analyses that provide a momentary prediction, ML algorithms are dynamic in that they are readily capable of imbibing historical data to build a framework that improves with additive data. Purpose: To (1) characterize the epidemiology of publicly reported NHL injuries from 2007 to 2017, (2) determine the validity of a machine learning model in predicting next-season injury risk for both goalies and position players, and (3) compare the performance of modern ML algorithms versus logistic regression (LR) analyses. Study Design: Descriptive epidemiology study. Methods: Professional NHL player data were compiled for the years 2007 to 2017 from 2 publicly reported databases in the absence of an official NHL-approved database. Attributes acquired from each NHL player from each professional year included age, 85 performance metrics, and injury history. A total of 5 ML algorithms were created for both position player and goalie data: random forest, K Nearest Neighbors, Naïve Bayes, XGBoost, and Top 3 Ensemble. LR was also performed for both position player and goalie data. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) primarily determined validation. Results: Player data were generated from 2109 position players and 213 goalies. For models predicting next-season injury risk for position players, XGBoost performed the best with an AUC of 0.948, compared with an AUC of 0.937 for LR ( P < .0001). For models predicting next-season injury risk for goalies, XGBoost had the highest AUC with 0.956, compared with an AUC of 0.947 for LR ( P < .0001). Conclusion: Advanced ML models such as XGBoost outperformed LR and demonstrated good to excellent capability of predicting whether a publicly reportable injury is likely to occur the next season.

scholarly journals Obtención de un modelo de minería de datos aplicado a la deserción universitaria del programa de Ingeniería de Sistemas de la Universidad de Cundinamarca

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Holmes Yesid Ayala-Yaguara ◽  
Gina Maribel Valenzuela-Sabogal ◽  
Alexander Espinosa-García
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Support Vector Machines ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Nearest Neighbors ◽  
Knowledge Discovery In Databases ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
K Nearest Neighbors ◽  
Vector Machines ◽  
Feature Importance

En el presente artículo se describe la obtención de un modelo de minería de datos aplicado al problema de la deserción universitaria en el programa de Ingeniería de Sistemas de la Universidad de Cundinamarca, extensión Facatativá. El modelo se estructuró mediante la metodología de minería de datos KDD (knowledge discovery in databases) haciendo uso del lenguaje de programación Python, la librería de procesamiento de datos Pandas y de machine learning Sklearn. Para el proceso se tuvieron en cuenta problemas adicionales al proceso de minería, como, por ejemplo, la alta dimensionalidad, por lo cual se aplicaron los métodos de selección de las variables estadístico univariado, feature importance y SelectFromModel (Sklearn). En el proyecto se seleccionaron cinco técnicas de minería de datos para evaluarlas: vecinos más cercanos (K nearest neighbors, KNN), árboles de decisión (decision tree, DT), árboles aleatorios (random forest, RF), regresión logística (logistic regression, LR) y máquinas de vectores soporte (support vector machines, SVM). Respecto a la selección del modelo final se evaluaron los resultados de cada modelo en las métricas de precisión, matriz de confusión y métricas adicionales de la matriz de confusión. Por último, se ajustaron los parámetros del modelo seleccionado y se evaluó la generalización del modelo al graficar su curva de aprendizaje.

scholarly journals Use of Machine Learning to Investigate the Quantitative Checklist for Autism in Toddlers (Q-CHAT) towards Early Autism Screening

Diagnostics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 574
Author(s):  
Gennaro Tartarisco ◽  
Giovanni Cicceri ◽  
Davide Di Pietro ◽  
Elisa Leonardi ◽  
Stefania Aiello ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Behavioral Science ◽  
Autistic Traits ◽  
Classification Performance ◽  
Recursive Feature Elimination ◽  
Diagnostic Tools ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
K Nearest Neighbors ◽  
Autism Screening

In the past two decades, several screening instruments were developed to detect toddlers who may be autistic both in clinical and unselected samples. Among others, the Quantitative CHecklist for Autism in Toddlers (Q-CHAT) is a quantitative and normally distributed measure of autistic traits that demonstrates good psychometric properties in different settings and cultures. Recently, machine learning (ML) has been applied to behavioral science to improve the classification performance of autism screening and diagnostic tools, but mainly in children, adolescents, and adults. In this study, we used ML to investigate the accuracy and reliability of the Q-CHAT in discriminating young autistic children from those without. Five different ML algorithms (random forest (RF), naïve Bayes (NB), support vector machine (SVM), logistic regression (LR), and K-nearest neighbors (KNN)) were applied to investigate the complete set of Q-CHAT items. Our results showed that ML achieved an overall accuracy of 90%, and the SVM was the most effective, being able to classify autism with 95% accuracy. Furthermore, using the SVM–recursive feature elimination (RFE) approach, we selected a subset of 14 items ensuring 91% accuracy, while 83% accuracy was obtained from the 3 best discriminating items in common to ours and the previously reported Q-CHAT-10. This evidence confirms the high performance and cross-cultural validity of the Q-CHAT, and supports the application of ML to create shorter and faster versions of the instrument, maintaining high classification accuracy, to be used as a quick, easy, and high-performance tool in primary-care settings.

scholarly journals Structural Health Monitoring Using Machine Learning and Cumulative Absolute Velocity Features

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 5727
Author(s):  
Sifat Muin ◽  
Khalid M. Mosalam
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Structural Health Monitoring ◽  
Health Monitoring ◽  
Degree Of Freedom ◽  
Absolute Velocity ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Damage State ◽  
Structural Health ◽  
Cumulative Absolute Velocity

Machine learning (ML)-aided structural health monitoring (SHM) can rapidly evaluate the safety and integrity of the aging infrastructure following an earthquake. The conventional damage features used in ML-based SHM methodologies face the curse of dimensionality. This paper introduces low dimensional, namely, cumulative absolute velocity (CAV)-based features, to enable the use of ML for rapid damage assessment. A computer experiment is performed to identify the appropriate features and the ML algorithm using data from a simulated single-degree-of-freedom system. A comparative analysis of five ML models (logistic regression (LR), ordinal logistic regression (OLR), artificial neural networks with 10 and 100 neurons (ANN10 and ANN100), and support vector machines (SVM)) is performed. Two test sets were used where Set-1 originated from the same distribution as the training set and Set-2 came from a different distribution. The results showed that the combination of the CAV and the relative CAV with respect to the linear response, i.e., RCAV, performed the best among the different feature combinations. Among the ML models, OLR showed good generalization capabilities when compared to SVM and ANN models. Subsequently, OLR is successfully applied to assess the damage of two numerical multi-degree of freedom (MDOF) models and an instrumented building with CAV and RCAV as features. For the MDOF models, the damage state was identified with accuracy ranging from 84% to 97% and the damage location was identified with accuracy ranging from 93% to 97.5%. The features and the OLR models successfully captured the damage information for the instrumented structure as well. The proposed methodology is capable of ensuring rapid decision-making and improving community resiliency.

scholarly journals Predicting hospitalization following psychiatric crisis care using machine learning

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthijs Blankers ◽  
Louk F. M. van der Post ◽  
Jack J. M. Dekker
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Nearest Neighbors ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
K Nearest Neighbors ◽  
Crisis Care

Abstract Background Accurate prediction models for whether patients on the verge of a psychiatric criseis need hospitalization are lacking and machine learning methods may help improve the accuracy of psychiatric hospitalization prediction models. In this paper we evaluate the accuracy of ten machine learning algorithms, including the generalized linear model (GLM/logistic regression) to predict psychiatric hospitalization in the first 12 months after a psychiatric crisis care contact. We also evaluate an ensemble model to optimize the accuracy and we explore individual predictors of hospitalization. Methods Data from 2084 patients included in the longitudinal Amsterdam Study of Acute Psychiatry with at least one reported psychiatric crisis care contact were included. Target variable for the prediction models was whether the patient was hospitalized in the 12 months following inclusion. The predictive power of 39 variables related to patients’ socio-demographics, clinical characteristics and previous mental health care contacts was evaluated. The accuracy and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the machine learning algorithms were compared and we also estimated the relative importance of each predictor variable. The best and least performing algorithms were compared with GLM/logistic regression using net reclassification improvement analysis and the five best performing algorithms were combined in an ensemble model using stacking. Results All models performed above chance level. We found Gradient Boosting to be the best performing algorithm (AUC = 0.774) and K-Nearest Neighbors to be the least performing (AUC = 0.702). The performance of GLM/logistic regression (AUC = 0.76) was slightly above average among the tested algorithms. In a Net Reclassification Improvement analysis Gradient Boosting outperformed GLM/logistic regression by 2.9% and K-Nearest Neighbors by 11.3%. GLM/logistic regression outperformed K-Nearest Neighbors by 8.7%. Nine of the top-10 most important predictor variables were related to previous mental health care use. Conclusions Gradient Boosting led to the highest predictive accuracy and AUC while GLM/logistic regression performed average among the tested algorithms. Although statistically significant, the magnitude of the differences between the machine learning algorithms was in most cases modest. The results show that a predictive accuracy similar to the best performing model can be achieved when combining multiple algorithms in an ensemble model.

scholarly journals Machine learning for identification of surgeries with high risks of cancellation

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 141-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Luo ◽  
Fengyi Zhang ◽  
Yao Yao ◽  
RenRong Gong ◽  
Martina Fu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Sampling Methods ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Stable Performance ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve

Surgery cancellations waste scarce operative resources and hinder patients’ access to operative services. In this study, the Wilcoxon and chi-square tests were used for predictor selection, and three machine learning models – random forest, support vector machine, and XGBoost – were used for the identification of surgeries with high risks of cancellation. The optimal performances of the identification models were as follows: sensitivity − 0.615; specificity − 0.957; positive predictive value − 0.454; negative predictive value − 0.904; accuracy − 0.647; and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve − 0.682. Of the three models, the random forest model achieved the best performance. Thus, the effective identification of surgeries with high risks of cancellation is feasible with stable performance. Models and sampling methods significantly affect the performance of identification. This study is a new application of machine learning for the identification of surgeries with high risks of cancellation and facilitation of surgery resource management.

scholarly journals Predicting Hospitalization following Psychiatric Crisis Care using Machine Learning

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthijs Blankers ◽  
Louk F. M. van der Post ◽  
Jack J. M. Dekker
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Nearest Neighbors ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Predictor Variables ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
K Nearest Neighbors ◽  
Psychiatric Crisis ◽  
Crisis Care

Abstract Background: It is difficult to accurately predict whether a patient on the verge of a potential psychiatric crisis will need to be hospitalized. Machine learning may be helpful to improve the accuracy of psychiatric hospitalization prediction models. In this paper we evaluate and compare the accuracy of ten machine learning algorithms including the commonly used generalized linear model (GLM/logistic regression) to predict psychiatric hospitalization in the first 12 months after a psychiatric crisis care contact, and explore the most important predictor variables of hospitalization. Methods: Data from 2,084 patients with at least one reported psychiatric crisis care contact included in the longitudinal Amsterdam Study of Acute Psychiatry were used. The accuracy and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the machine learning algorithms were compared. We also estimated the relative importance of each predictor variable. The best and least performing algorithms were compared with GLM/logistic regression using net reclassification improvement analysis. Target variable for the prediction models was whether or not the patient was hospitalized in the 12 months following inclusion in the study. The 39 predictor variables were related to patients’ socio-demographics, clinical characteristics and previous mental health care contacts. Results: We found Gradient Boosting to perform the best (AUC=0.774) and K-Nearest Neighbors performing the least (AUC=0.702). The performance of GLM/logistic regression (AUC=0.76) was above average among the tested algorithms. Gradient Boosting outperformed GLM/logistic regression and K-Nearest Neighbors, and GLM outperformed K-Nearest Neighbors in a Net Reclassification Improvement analysis, although the differences between Gradient Boosting and GLM/logistic regression were small. Nine of the top-10 most important predictor variables were related to previous mental health care use. Conclusions: Gradient Boosting led to the highest predictive accuracy and AUC while GLM/logistic regression performed average among the tested algorithms. Although statistically significant, the magnitude of the differences between the machine learning algorithms was modest. Future studies may consider to combine multiple algorithms in an ensemble model for optimal performance and to mitigate the risk of choosing suboptimal performing algorithms.

scholarly journals Predicting Student’s Performance Using Machine Learning Algorithm

2021 ◽  
pp. 53-58
Author(s):  
Sheela Rani P ◽  
Dhivya S ◽  
Dharshini Priya M ◽  
Dharmila Chowdary A
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Naive Bayes ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Naïve Bayes ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
K Nearest Neighbors

Machine learning is a new analysis discipline that uses knowledge to boost learning, optimizing the training method and developing the atmosphere within which learning happens. There square measure 2 sorts of machine learning approaches like supervised and unsupervised approach that square measure accustomed extract the knowledge that helps the decision-makers in future to require correct intervention. This paper introduces an issue that influences students' tutorial performance prediction model that uses a supervised variety of machine learning algorithms like support vector machine , KNN(k-nearest neighbors), Naïve Bayes and supplying regression and logistic regression. The results supported by various algorithms are compared and it is shown that the support vector machine and Naïve Bayes performs well by achieving improved accuracy as compared to other algorithms. The final prediction model during this paper may have fairly high prediction accuracy .The objective is not just to predict future performance of students but also provide the best technique for finding the most impactful features that influence student’s while studying.

scholarly journals Machine Learning-based in-hospital Mortality Prediction Models for Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Ke ◽  
Yiwei Chen ◽  
Xiaoping Wang ◽  
Zhiyong Wu ◽  
qiongyao Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Hdl Cholesterol ◽  
Coronary Syndrome

Abstract BackgroundThe purpose of this study is to identify the risk factors of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and to evaluate the performance of traditional regression and machine learning prediction models.MethodsThe data of ACS patients who entered the emergency department of Fujian Provincial Hospital from January 1, 2017 to March 31, 2020 for chest pain were retrospectively collected. The study used univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify risk factors for in-hospital mortality of ACS patients. The traditional regression and machine learning algorithms were used to develop predictive models, and the sensitivity, specificity, and receiver operating characteristic curve were used to evaluate the performance of each model.ResultsA total of 7810 ACS patients were included in the study, and the in-hospital mortality rate was 1.75%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis found that age and levels of D-dimer, cardiac troponin I, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, and calcium channel blockers were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. The study found that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the models developed by logistic regression, gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), random forest, and support vector machine (SVM) for predicting the risk of in-hospital mortality were 0.963, 0.960, 0.963, and 0.959, respectively. Feature importance evaluation found that NT-proBNP, LDH, and HDL cholesterol were top three variables that contribute the most to the prediction performance of the GBDT model and random forest model.ConclusionsThe predictive model developed using logistic regression, GBDT, random forest, and SVM algorithms can be used to predict the risk of in-hospital death of ACS patients. Based on our findings, we recommend that clinicians focus on monitoring the changes of NT-proBNP, LDH, and HDL cholesterol, as this may improve the clinical outcomes of ACS patients.

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