scholarly journals Use of Mamdani Fuzzy Algorithm for Multi-Hazard Susceptibility Assessment in a Developing Urban Settlement (Mamak, Ankara, Turkey)

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tugce Yanar ◽  
Sultan Kocaman ◽  
Candan Gokceoglu
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Susceptibility Assessment ◽  
Urban Settlement ◽  
Fuzzy Algorithm ◽  
Flood Susceptibility ◽  
Susceptibility Maps ◽  
Integrated Hazard

Urban areas may be affected by multiple hazards, and integrated hazard susceptibility maps are needed for suitable site selection and planning. Furthermore, geological–geotechnical parameters, construction costs, and the spatial distribution of existing infrastructure should be taken into account for this purpose. Up-to-date land-use and land-cover (LULC) maps, as well as natural hazard susceptibility maps, can be frequently obtained from high-resolution satellite sensors. In this study, an integrated hazard susceptibility assessment was performed for a developing urban settlement (Mamak District of Ankara City, Turkey) considering landslide and flood potential. The flood susceptibility map of Ankara City was produced in a previous study using modified analytical hierarchical process (M-AHP) approach. The landslide susceptibility map was produced using the logistic regression technique in this study. Sentinel-2 images were employed for generating LULC data with the random forest classification method. Topographical derivatives obtained from a high-resolution digital elevation model and lithological parameters were employed for the production of landslide susceptibility maps. For the integrated hazard susceptibility assessment, the Mamdani fuzzy algorithm was considered, and the results are discussed in the present study. The results demonstrate that multi-hazard susceptibility assessment maps for urban planning can be obtained by combining a set of expert-based and ensemble learning methods.

scholarly journals Zonation of Landslide Susceptibility in Ruijin, Jiangxi, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 5906
Author(s):  
Xiaoting Zhou ◽  
Weicheng Wu ◽  
Ziyu Lin ◽  
Guiliang Zhang ◽  
Renxiang Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Landslide Occurrence ◽  
Better Than

Landslides are one of the major geohazards threatening human society. The objective of this study was to conduct a landslide hazard susceptibility assessment for Ruijin, Jiangxi, China, and to provide technical support to the local government for implementing disaster reduction and prevention measures. Machine learning approaches, e.g., random forests (RFs) and support vector machines (SVMs) were employed and multiple geo-environmental factors such as land cover, NDVI, landform, rainfall, lithology, and proximity to faults, roads, and rivers, etc., were utilized to achieve our purposes. For categorical factors, three processing approaches were proposed: simple numerical labeling (SNL), weight assignment (WA)-based and frequency ratio (FR)-based. Then 19 geo-environmental factors were respectively converted into raster to constitute three 19-band datasets, i.e., DS1, DS2, and DS3 from three different processes. Then, 155 observed landslides that occurred in the past decades were vectorized, among which 70% were randomly selected to compose a training set (TS1) and the remaining 30% to form a validation set (VS1). A number of non-landslide (no-risk) samples distributed in the whole study area were identified in low slope (<1–3°) zones such as urban areas and croplands, and also added to the TS1 and VS1 in the same ratio. For comparison, we used the FR approach to identify the no-risk samples in both flat and non-flat areas, and merged them into the field-observed landslides to constitute another pair of training and validation sets (TS2 and VS2) using the same ratio of 7:3. The RF algorithm was applied to model the probability of the landslide occurrence using DS1, DS2, and DS3 as predictive variables and TS1 and TS2 for training to obtain the SNL-based, WA-based, and FR-based RF models, respectively. Verified against VS1 and VS2, the three models have similar overall accuracy (OA) and Kappa coefficient (KC), which are 89.61%, 91.47%, and 94.54%, and 0.7926, 0.8299, and 0.8908, respectively. All of them are much better than the three models obtained by SVM algorithm with OA of 81.79%, 82.86%, and 83%, and KC of 0.6337, 0.655, and 0.660. New case verification with the recent 26 landslide events of 2017–2020 revealed that the landslide susceptibility map from WA-based RF modeling was able to properly identify the high and very high susceptibility zones where 23 new landslides had occurred, and performed better than the SNL-based and FR-based RF modeling, though the latter has a slightly higher OA and KC. Hence, we concluded that all three RF models achieve reasonable risk prediction, but WA-based and FR-based RF modeling deserves a recommendation for application elsewhere. The results of this study may serve as reference for the local authorities in prevention and early warning of landslide hazards.

Fractal analysis of rain gauges’ inhomogeneous distribution and the associated hydrological impacts: the case study of Muriaé River basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Priscila Celebrini de O. Campos ◽  
Igor Paz ◽  
Maria Esther Soares Marques ◽  
Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia ◽  
Daniel Schertzer
Keyword(s):  
Fractal Dimension ◽  
Spatial Analysis ◽  
Fractal Analysis ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Flood Susceptibility ◽  
Susceptibility Maps ◽  
Cross Tabulation ◽  
The Cross

&lt;p&gt;The urban population growth requires an improvement in the resilient behavior of these areas to extreme weather events, especially heavy rainfall. In this context, well-developed urban planning should address the problems of infrastructure, sanitation, and installation of communities, primarily related to insufficiently gauged locations. The main objectives of this study were to analyze the impacts of in-situ rain gauges&amp;#8217; distribution associated with the elaboration of a spatial diagnosis of the occurrence of floods in the municipality of Itaperuna, Rio de Janeiro &amp;#8211; Brazil. The methodology consisted of the spatial analysis of rain gauges&amp;#8217; distribution with the help of the fractal dimension concept and investigation of flood susceptibility maps prepared by the municipality based on transitory factors (which consider precipitation in the modeling) and on permanent factors (natural flood susceptibility). Both maps were validated by the cross-tabulation method, crossing each predictive map with the recorded data of flood spots measured during a major rainfall event. The results pointed that the fractal analysis of the rain gauges&amp;#8217; distribution presented a scaling break behavior with a low fractal dimension at the small-scale range, mostly concerned in (semi-)urban catchments, highlighting the incapacity of the local instrumentation to capture the spatial rainfall variability. Thereafter, the cross-tabulation validation method indicated that the flood susceptibility map based on transitory factors presented an unsatisfactory probability of detection of floods when compared to the map based on permanent factors. These results allowed us to take into account the hydrological uncertainties concerning the insufficient gauge network and the impacts of the sparse distribution on the choice and elaboration of flood susceptibility maps that use rainfall data as input. Finally, we performed a spatial analysis to estimate the population and habitations that can be affected by floods using the flood susceptibility map based on permanent factors.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Flash Flood Susceptibility Assessment Based on Geodetector, Certainty Factor, and Logistic Regression Analyses in Fujian Province, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 748
Author(s):  
Yifan Cao ◽  
Hongliang Jia ◽  
Junnan Xiong ◽  
Weiming Cheng ◽  
Kun Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Susceptibility Assessment ◽  
Certainty Factor ◽  
Fujian Province ◽  
Flood Susceptibility ◽  
Susceptibility Maps

Flash floods are one of the most frequent natural disasters in Fujian Province, China, and they seriously threaten the safety of infrastructure, natural ecosystems, and human life. Thus, recognition of possible flash flood locations and exploitation of more precise flash flood susceptibility maps are crucial to appropriate flash flood management in Fujian. Based on this objective, in this study, we developed a new method of flash flood susceptibility assessment. First, we utilized double standards, including the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) and Geodetector to screen the assessment indicator. Second, in order to consider the weight of each classification of indicator and the weights of the indicators simultaneously, we used the ensemble model of the certainty factor (CF) and logistic regression (LR) to establish a frame for the flash flood susceptibility assessment. Ultimately, we used this ensemble model (CF-LR), the standalone CF model, and the standalone LR model to prepare flash flood susceptibility maps for Fujian Province and compared their prediction performance. The results revealed the following. (1) Land use, topographic relief, and 24 h precipitation (H24_100) within a 100-year return period were the three main factors causing flash floods in Fujian Province. (2) The area under the curve (AUC) results showed that the CF-LR model had the best precision in terms of both the success rate (0.860) and the prediction rate (0.882). (3) The assessment results of all three models showed that between 22.27% and 29.35% of the study area have high and very high susceptibility levels, and these areas are mainly located in the east, south, and southeast coastal areas, and the north and west low mountain areas. The results of this study provide a scientific basis and support for flash flood prevention in Fujian Province. The proposed susceptibility assessment framework may also be helpful for other natural disaster susceptibility analyses.

scholarly journals Improving Voting Feature Intervals for Spatial Prediction of Landslides

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Binh Thai Pham ◽  
Tran Van Phong ◽  
Mohammadtaghi Avand ◽  
Nadhir Al-Ansari ◽  
Sushant K. Singh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Spatial Prediction ◽  
Susceptibility Assessment ◽  
Improve Performance ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Assessment ◽  
Ensemble Techniques ◽  
Susceptibility Maps ◽  
Quantitative Validation ◽  
Two Hybrid

In this study, the main aim is to improve performance of the voting feature intervals (VFIs), which is one of the most effective machine learning models, using two robust ensemble techniques, namely, AdaBoost and MultiBoost for landslide susceptibility assessment and prediction. For this, two hybrid models, namely, AdaBoost-based Voting Feature Intervals (ABVFIs) and MultiBoost-based Voting Feature Intervals (MBVFIs) were developed and validated using landslide data collected from one of the landslide affected districts of Vietnam, namely, Muong Lay. Quantitative validation methods including area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate model performance. The results indicated that both the newly developed ensemble models ABVFI (AUC = 0.859) and MBVFI (AUC = 0.839) outperformed the single VFI (AUC = 0.824) model. Thus, ensemble framework-based VFI algorithms can be used for the accurate spatial prediction of landslides, which can also be applied in other landslide prone regions of the world. Landslide susceptibility maps developed by ensemble VFI models can be used for better landslide prevention and risk management of the area.

Application of Airborne LiDAR-Derived Parameters and Probabilistic-Based Frequency Ratio Model in Landslide Susceptibility Mapping

2012 ◽  
Vol 225 ◽  
pp. 442-447 ◽  
Author(s):  
Biswajeet Pradhan ◽  
Zulkiflee Abd. Latif ◽  
Siti Nur Afiqah Aman
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Frequency Ratio ◽  
Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Airborne Lidar ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Ratio Model ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Map ◽  
Frequency Ratio Model

The escalating number of occurrences of natural hazards such as landslides has raised a great interest among the geoscientists. Due to the extremely high number of point’s returns, airborne LiDAR permits the formation of more accurate DEM compared to other space borne and airborne remote sensing techniques. This study aims to assess the capability of LiDAR derived parameters in landslide susceptibility mapping. Due to frequent occurrence of landslides, Ulu Klang in Selangor state in Malaysia has been considered as application site. A high resolution of airborne LiDAR DEM was constructed to produce topographic attributes such as slope, curvature and aspect. These data were utilized to derive secondary deliverables of landslide parameters such as topographic wetness index (TWI), surface area ratio (SAR) and stream power index (SPI). A probabilistic based frequency ratio model was applied to establish the spatial relationship between the landslide locations and each landslide related factors. Subsequently, factor ratings were summed up to yield Landslide Susceptibility Index (LSI) and finally a landslide susceptibility map was prepared. To test the model performance, receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was carried out together with area under curve (AUC) analysis. The produced landslide susceptibility map demonstrated that high resolution airborne LiDAR data has huge potential in landslide susceptibility mapping.

scholarly journals EVALUATING THE VARIATIONS IN THE FLOOD SUSCEPTIBILITY MAPS ACCURACIES DUE TO THE ALTERATIONS IN THE TYPE AND EXTENT OF THE FLOOD INVENTORY

2017 ◽  
Vol XLII-4/W5 ◽  
pp. 209-214 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Sh. Tehrany ◽  
S. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Area Under Curve ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Inventory Data ◽  
Flood Susceptibility ◽  
Susceptibility Maps ◽  
Rapid Processing ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Measurement Approach

This paper explores the influence of the extent and density of the inventory data on the final outcomes. This study aimed to examine the impact of different formats and extents of the flood inventory data on the final susceptibility map. An extreme 2011 Brisbane flood event was used as the case study. LR model was applied using polygon and point formats of the inventory data. Random points of 1000, 700, 500, 300, 100 and 50 were selected and susceptibility mapping was undertaken using each group of random points. To perform the modelling Logistic Regression (LR) method was selected as it is a very well-known algorithm in natural hazard modelling due to its easily understandable, rapid processing time and accurate measurement approach. The resultant maps were assessed visually and statistically using Area under Curve (AUC) method. The prediction rates measured for susceptibility maps produced by polygon, 1000, 700, 500, 300, 100 and 50 random points were 63&amp;thinsp;%, 76&amp;thinsp;%, 88&amp;thinsp;%, 80&amp;thinsp;%, 74&amp;thinsp;%, 71&amp;thinsp;% and 65&amp;thinsp;% respectively. Evidently, using the polygon format of the inventory data didn’t lead to the reasonable outcomes. In the case of random points, raising the number of points consequently increased the prediction rates, except for 1000 points. Hence, the minimum and maximum thresholds for the extent of the inventory must be set prior to the analysis. It is concluded that the extent and format of the inventory data are also two of the influential components in the precision of the modelling.

scholarly journals A landslide susceptibility assessment in urban areas based on existing data: an example from the Iguaná Valley, Medellín City, Colombia

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 2067-2079 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Klimeš ◽  
V. Rios Escobar
Keyword(s):  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Disaster Response ◽  
Developmental Process ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Susceptibility Maps ◽  
Existing Data ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Maps

Abstract. Fast urbanization and the morphological conditions of the Iguaná River Basin, Medellín, Colombia have forced many people to settle on landslide prone slopes as evidenced by extensive landslide induced damage. In this study we used existing disaster databases (inventories) in order to examine the spatial and temporal variability of landsliding within this watershed. The spatial variability of landsliding was examined using "expert-based" and "weighted" landslide susceptibility models. The constructed landslide susceptibility maps demonstrate consistent results irrespective of the underlying method. These show that at least 55.9% of the watershed is highly or very highly susceptible to landsliding. In addition, the temporal distribution of landsliding was analyzed and compared with climatic data. Results show that the area has a distinct bimodal rainfall distribution, and it is clear that landsliding is particularly frequent during the later rainy season between October and November. Moreover, landslides are more common during La Niña years. It is recommended that the existing landslide inventories are improved so as to be of greater use in the future land use planning of the watershed. The construction of landslide susceptibility maps based on existing data represents a significant step towards landslide mitigation in the area. Using susceptibility and hazard assessment during the developmental process should lessen the need for disaster response at a later stage.

scholarly journals Landslide susceptibility maps of Santiago city Andean foothills, Chile

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 433
Author(s):  
Marisol Lara ◽  
Sergio A. Sepúlveda ◽  
Constanza Celis ◽  
Sofía Rebolledo ◽  
Pablo Ceballos
Keyword(s):  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Rock Falls ◽  
Susceptibility Maps ◽  
Geological Conditions ◽  
Landslide Processes ◽  
The City ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Maps

The urban expansion of Santiago city includes areas with geomorphological and geological conditions with potential to be affected by landslide processes. This work presents compiled landslide susceptibility maps for the Andean foothills of Santiago city, between Maipo and Mapocho rivers. The maps identify the areas prone to the generation of slides, falls and flows. The results show that the oriental foothills of Santiago city have moderate to high susceptibility of rock falls, rock and soil slides and debris flows. The most important of these landslide types are debris flows, due to the runout of this processes that may reach urban areas posing a risk for the city, for which detailed hazard studies are required.

scholarly journals Retrospective evaluation of landslide susceptibility maps and review of validation practice

2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (15) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Fleuchaus ◽  
Philipp Blum ◽  
Martina Wilde ◽  
Birgit Terhorst ◽  
Christoph Butscher
Keyword(s):  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Retrospective Evaluation ◽  
Widespread Application ◽  
Evaluation Approach ◽  
Susceptibility Maps ◽  
Landslide Event ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Maps

AbstractDespite the widespread application of landslide susceptibility analyses, there is hardly any information about whether or not the occurrence of recent landslide events was correctly predicted by the relevant susceptibility maps. Hence, the objective of this study is to evaluate four landslide susceptibility maps retrospectively in a landslide-prone area of the Swabian Alb (Germany). The predictive performance of each susceptibility map is evaluated based on a landslide event triggered by heavy rainfalls in the year 2013. The retrospective evaluation revealed significant variations in the predictive accuracy of the analyzed studies. Both completely erroneous as well as very precise predictions were observed. These differences are less attributed to the applied statistical method and more to the quality and comprehensiveness of the used input data. Furthermore, a literature review of 50 peer-reviewed articles showed that most landslide susceptibility analyses achieve very high validation scores. 73% of the analyzed studies achieved an area under curve (AUC) value of at least 80%. These high validation scores, however, do not reflect the high uncertainty in statistical susceptibility analysis. Thus, the quality assessment of landslide susceptibility maps should not only comprise an index-based, quantitative validation, but also an additional qualitative plausibility check considering local geomorphological characteristics and local landslide mechanisms. Finally, the proposed retrospective evaluation approach cannot only help to assess the quality of susceptibility maps and demonstrate the reliability of such statistical methods, but also identify issues that will enable the susceptibility maps to be improved in the future.

scholarly journals The performance of using an autoencoder for prediction and susceptibility assessment of landslides: A case study on landslides triggered by the 2018 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi earthquake in Japan

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kounghoon Nam ◽  
Fawu Wang
Keyword(s):  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Susceptibility Assessment ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Susceptibility Maps ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Index ◽  
High Possibility ◽  
Northern Japan

Abstract Background Thousands of landslides were triggered by the Hokkaido Eastern Iburi earthquake on 6 September 2018 in Iburi regions of Hokkaido, Northern Japan. Most of the landslides (5627 points) occurred intensively between the epicenter and the station that recorded the highest peak ground acceleration. Hundreds of aftershocks followed the major shocks. Moreover, in Iburi region, there is a high possibility of earthquakes occurring in the future. Effective prediction and susceptibility assessment methods are required for sustainable management and disaster mitigation in the study area. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of an autoencoder framework based on deep neural network for prediction and susceptibility assessment of regional landslides triggered by earthquakes. Results By applying 12 sampling sizes and 12 landslide-influencing factors, 12 landslide susceptibility maps were produced using an autoencoder framework. The results of the model were evaluated using qualitative and quantitative assessment methods. The ratios of the sampling sizes on the non-landslide points randomly generated from the combination zone including plain and mountain (PM) and a mountainous only zone (M) affected different prediction abilities of the model’s performance. Conclusions The 12 susceptibility maps, including the landslide susceptibility index, indicated the various spatial distributions of the landslide susceptibility values in both PM and the M. The highly accurate models explicitly distinguished the potential areas of landslide from stable areas without expanding the spatial extent of the potential landslide areas. The autoencoder is proved to be an effective and efficient method for extracting spatial patterns through unsupervised learning for the prediction and susceptibility assessment of landslide areas.

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