scholarly journals Urban Fire Dynamics and Its Association with Urban Growth: Evidence from Nanjing, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoxiang Zhang ◽  
Jing Yao ◽  
Katarzyna Sila-Nowicka ◽  
Yuhao Jin
Keyword(s):  
Urban Growth ◽  
Hot Spots ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Fire Dynamics ◽  
Fire Incident ◽  
Urban Fire ◽  
Spatial Analytics ◽  
The City

Many Chinese cities currently are facing increased urban fire risks particularly at places such as urban villages, high-rise buildings and large warehouses. Using a unique historical fire incident dataset (2002–2013), this paper is intended to explore the urban fire dynamics and its association with urban growth in Nanjing, China, with a geographical information system (GIS)-based spatial analytics and remote sensing (RS) techniques. A new method is proposed to define a range of fire hot spots characterizing different phases of fire incident evolution, which are compared with the urban growth in the same periods. The results suggest that the fire events have been largely concentrated in the city proper and meanwhile expanding towards the suburbs, which has a similar temporal trend to the growth of population and urban land at the city level particularly since 2008. Most intensifying and persistent fire hot spots are found in the central districts, which have limited urban expansion but high population densities. Most new hot spots are located in the suburban districts, which have seen both rapid population growth and urban expansion in recent years. However, the analysis at a finer spatial scale (500 m × 500 m) shows no evidences of an explicit connection between the locations of new fire hot spots and recently developed urban land. The findings can inform future urban and emergency planning with respect to the deployment of fire and rescue resources, ultimately improving urban fire safety.

scholarly journals Simulation and prediction of Shanghai urban spatial change based on random forest and CA-Markov model

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Xuewei Dang ◽  
Liang Zhou ◽  
Xiaoen Li ◽  
Haowei Mu ◽  
Lei Che ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Planning ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Urban Land Use ◽  
City Center ◽  
Urban Simulation ◽  
The City ◽  
Red Line

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> In the context of rapid urbanization, accurate assessment of urban expansion has become increasingly important for urban sustainable development, and smart growth theory has been put forward to avoid urban sprawl. Previous studies about urban expansion simulation focused only on ecological constrain which prevent urban growth from developing in specific regions. However, government decision-making and urban planning greatly influence urban development and limit the disorderly expansion of the urban. In this paper, we consider planning policies into urban simulation and uses the ecological protection red line, farmland protection red line and cultural protection control line as limiting factors for future urban simulation. Choosing Shanghai as the study area, we integrated Random Forests Algorithm (RFA), Markov chain and Cellular Automata (CA) to simulate urban expansion in 2015, and further predict the urban expansion in 2020, 2025 and 2030. The results show that the overall accuracy of urban land use simulation in 2015 is 93.86%, and the kappa coefficient is 0.8577. The model has a good simulation effect. Furthermore, the predicted results in 2020, 2025 and 2030 show that the urban land area in Shanghai is still increasing, and the spatial distribution of urban land has obvious circle structure and regional differences. The urban areas within 10km from the city center are growing slowly, and the region within 30km from the city center is growing faster, and there are more new urban points from 2025 to 2030. But in the area 30km away from the city center, different administrative areas show different urban growth phenomena. Among them, there are a large number of new urban points in the junction area between Songjiang District and Jinshan District, which may be the focus of future urban development planning in Shanghai. The proposed model and the results can help planners study the evolution of urban patterns and develop further urban planning.</p>

scholarly journals The multi-criteria analysis for sustainable urban growth by using Fuzzy Method: case study Trikomo, Cyprus

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 623-636
Author(s):  
Can Kara ◽  
◽  
Nuhcan Akçit ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Growth ◽  
Geographical Information Systems ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Multi Criteria Evaluation ◽  
Multi Criteria Analysis ◽  
Gis Environment ◽  
The City

<abstract> <p>The Urban growth in Trikomo (Yeni İskele) region in Cyprus has dramatically increased recently. The unorganized and uncontrolled development process has started to consume land resources; loss of landcover, valuable agricultural lands, and change of wetlands of stream beds or ponds occurred. In addition, partial and fragmented housing development projects bring only housing and second housing to the coastal region. As a result, environmental and economic problems occurred in sustainable urban growth (SUG) in the Trikomo (Yeni İskele) region. Due to the lack of planning instruments in Trikomo, urban expansion policies and alternatives have been ignored. In this regard, this research tries to investigate spatial SUG and expansion alternatives by using Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) and fuzzy logic within geographical information systems (GIS). Compact growth, environmental protection, and equal accessibility to local services were used for multi-criteria analysis to construct spatial SUG problems. Then they were converted to spatial layers within the (GIS) environment. Results show that; 6 percent of the study area is in a shallow suitability zone. Forty-four percent of it has very low and low suitability for SUG. Also, 41 percent of the area is suitable. Only 12 percent of the area has high and very high suitability values. These findings showed that approximately 118 square kilometers (56 percent) of the city is within the same level appropriate for urban development.</p> </abstract>

scholarly journals Urban Growth, Real Estate Development and Indigenous Property: Simulating the Expansion Process in the City of Temuco, Chile

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 101
Author(s):  
Francisco Maturana ◽  
Mauricio Morales ◽  
Fernando Peña-Cortés ◽  
Marco A. Peña ◽  
Carlos Vielma
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Indigenous Communities ◽  
Objective Evaluation ◽  
Real Estate Development ◽  
Territorial Planning ◽  
The Future ◽  
Urban Scenario ◽  
The City

Urbanization is spreading across the world and beyond metropolitan areas. Medium-sized cities have also undergone processes of accelerated urban expansion, especially in Latin America, thanks to scant regulation or a complete lack thereof. Thus, understanding urban growth in the past and simulating it in the future has become a tool to raise its visibility and challenge territorial planners. In this work, we use Markov chains, cellular automata, multi-criteria multi-objective evaluation, and the determination of land use/land cover (LULC) to model the urban growth of the city of Temuco, Chile, a paradigmatic case because it has experienced powerful growth, where real estate development pressures coexist with a high natural value and the presence of indigenous communities. The urban scenario is determined for the years 2033 and 2049 based on the spatial patterns between 1985 and 2017, where the model shows the trend of expansion toward the northeast and significant development in the western sector of the city, making them two potential centers of expansion and conflict in the future given the heavy pressure on lands that are indigenous property and have a high natural value, aspects that need to be incorporated into future territorial planning instruments.

scholarly journals Цифровізація розвитку міст: Urban Atlas на основі відкритих даних для міст України

2021 ◽  
pp. 19-28
Author(s):  
Андрій Юрійович Шелестов ◽  
Алла Миколаївна Лавренюк ◽  
Богдан Ялкапович Яйлимов ◽  
Ганна Олексіївна Яйлимова
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Project Smart ◽  
Unified Algorithm ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

Ukraine is an associate member of the European Union and in the coming years it is expected that all data and services already used by EU countries will be available to Ukraine. The lack of quality national products for assessing the development and planning of urban growth makes it impossible to assess the impact of cities on the environment and human health. The first steps to create such products for the cities of Ukraine were initiated within the European project "SMart URBan Solutions for air quality, disasters and city growth" (SMURBS), in which specialists from the Space Research Institute of NAS of Ukraine and SSA of Ukraine received the first city atlas for the Kyiv city, which was similar to the European one. However, the resulting product had significantly fewer types of land use than the European one and therefore the question of improving the developed technology arose. The main purpose of the work is to analyze the existing technology of European service Urban Atlas creation and its improvement by developing a unified algorithm for building an urban atlas using all available open geospatial and satellite data for the cities of Ukraine. The development of such technology is based on our own technology for classifying satellite time series with a spatial resolution of 10 meters to build a land cover map, as well as an algorithm for unifying open geospatial data to urban atlases Copernicus. The technology of construction of the city atlas developed in work, based on the intellectual model of classification of a land cover, can be extended to other cities of Ukraine. In the future, the creation of such a product on the basis of data for different years will allow to assess changes in land use and make a forecast for further urban expansion. The proposed information technology for constructing the city atlas will be useful for assessing the dynamics of urban growth and closely related social and economic indicators of their development. Based on it, it is also possible to assess indicators of achieving the goals of sustainable development, such as 11.3.1 "The ratio of land consumption and population growth." The study shows that the city atlas obtained for the Kyiv city has a high level of quality and has comparable land use classes with European products. It indicates that such a product can be used in government decision-making services.

Geographical Analysis of Entertainment Services in the City of Daratu Using Geographical Information Systems (GIS)

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 618-644
Author(s):  
Hoshmand Jawhar Abbas ◽  
Sanger Ahmed Hussein ◽  
Fatimah Qader Mustafa
Keyword(s):  
Geographical Information Systems ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Recreational Facilities ◽  
Financial Gain ◽  
Recreational Services ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

 The impact of the recreational services that exist within the group of services that are practiced within the geographical framework of the city, is not limited to the lives of its residents and their activities, but also on the residents of the surrounding areas. Recreational services contribute to providing diversified investment opportunities for leisure time, so that they are appropriate and beneficial to the health, comfort and well-being of the population at the lowest possible cost, without the goal of their establishment being financial gain, as they lead to the creation of mental, psychological and physical balance on the level of one individual and on the basis of society in a way. In general, recreational services are an integral part of urban activities in most cities of the world. Rather, the concept of modernity and urbanization in contemporary urban centers is measured to some extent by the availability of recreational facilities for their inhabitants, and the study also showed the low level of efficiency of recreational services in terms of their spatial distribution and numbers. As it is concentrated in some neighborhoods of the city, while it is less or absent in other neighborhoods, as well as not taking into account the planning standards in its distribution and during its construction in line with the population increase, urban expansion and the residents' needs for these services. The success in providing these different types of recreational facilities depends on how they are distributed geographically. The balanced distribution of these activities determines the success of the adopted plans in achieving the required goals and policies.

scholarly journals Using building types and demographic data to improve our understanding and use of urban sprawl simulation

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Mojtaba Eslahi ◽  
Rani El Meouche ◽  
Anne Ruas
Keyword(s):  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Geographical Information Systems ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Sleuth Model

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Many studies, using various modeling approaches and simulation tools have been made in the field of urban growth. A multitude of models, with common or specific features, has been developed to reconstruct the spatial occupation and changes in land use. However, today most of urban growth techniques just use the historical geographic data such as urban, road and excluded maps to simulate the prospective urban maps. In this paper, adding buildings and population data as urban fabric factors, we define different urban growth simulation scenarios. Each simulation corresponds to policies that are more or less restrictive of space considering what these territories can accommodate as a type of building and as a global population.</p><p>Among the urban growth modeling techniques, dynamic models, those based on Cellular Automata (CA) are the most common for their applications in urban areas. CA can be integrated with Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to have a high spatial resolution model with computational efficiency. The SLEUTH model is one of the cellular automata models, which match the dynamic simulation of urban expansion and could be adapted to morphological model of the urban configuration and fabric.</p><p>Using the SLEUTH model, this paper provides different simulations that correspond to different land priorities and constraints. We used common data (such as topographic, buildings and demography data) to improve the realism of each simulation and their adequacy with the real world. The findings allow having different images of the city of tomorrow to choose and reflect on urban policies.</p>

scholarly journals Salinas en la Provincia de Santa Elena, Ecuador. Caracterización e impactos por la expansión urbana = Salt Flats in Santa Elena’s province, Ecuador. Characterization and impacts of urban expansion

2018 ◽  
pp. 40
Author(s):  
Yadira Henríquez Tigrero
Keyword(s):  
Plant Communities ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Endemic Species ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
State Policies ◽  
Salt Extraction ◽  
Salt Flats ◽  
The City ◽  
Santa Elena

ResumenLa extracción de la sal en la puntilla se ha venido desarrollando desde 1763, y ha sido un motor económico y medio para proveer de recursos a familias que artesanalmente se dedicaban a ella. Las salinas de la Provincia de Santa Elena conforman un ecosistema en el que convivencomunidades vegetales y especies endémicas y constituyen uno de los paisajes naturales más singulares de la provincia.En la actualidad el paisaje salinero se ha visto reducido en las últimas décadas por la expansión urbana y la carencia de políticas de estado que contemplen su conservación. El presente trabajo de investigación muestra el análisis de la situación de las salinas marinas, emplazadas en la costa de la ciudad de Salinas, centrándose en los cambios que han presentadoen los últimos años, debido a los procesos de urbanización. Desde una perspectiva histórica y etnográfica se describe el funcionamiento y  métodos de extracción de la sal; para la identificación y clasificación de las salinas tanto industriales como artesanales. El estudio comprende lavariación en la extensión de las salinas, y si son contempladas en las estrategias de protección frente al crecimiento urbano en los instrumentos normativos municipales.AbstractSalt extraction in The Salinas has been developing since 1763 and has been an economic and an engine to provide resources to families who were handcrafted engaged in it. The Salina’s municipality make up an ecosystem in which plant communities and endemic species coexist andconstitute one of the most unique provinces’s natural landscapes.Today the salt landscape has been reduced in recent decades by urban expansion and the lack of State Policies that contemplate its conservation. This research paper shows the analysis of the the salt marshes’s situation, located on the coast of the city of Salinas, focusing on the changes theyhave presented in recent years, due to urbanization processes. From a historical and ethnographic perspective, the operation and methods of salt extraction are described, for the identification and classification of both industrial and handcrafted salt flats. The study comprises the variation in the extension of the Salinas, and if they are contemplated in the strategies of protection against the urban growth in the normative instruments of the municipality.Salinas as a city its contemplating the implementation of strategies for protection of these ecosystems against the urban growth in the normative instruments of the municipality.

scholarly journals Mapping and Characterizing the Green Belt of Córdoba: Land Dynamics and the Urban-Rural Transformation Process

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolás A. Mari ◽  
Nicolás A. Mari ◽  
Beatriz Giobellina ◽  
Beatriz Giobellina ◽  
Alejandro Benitez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Transformation Process ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Green Belt ◽  
Urban And Rural Areas ◽  
The City

In Córdoba, Argentina, the peri-urban horticulture is in conflict with industrial agriculture and urban development. This problem is partly due to urban expansion to rural areas occurred in the last years and to monoculture farming, which has replaced traditional fruit and vegetable cropping in the region. This transformation process has raised concern about the current and future availability of productive sectors that can sustain food supply within the city boundaries and its immediate surroundings as well as about the loss of ecosystem services associated with peri-urban natural environments. Although these dynamic processes are well known, they have not been described or quantified in Córdoba. Baseline information about land use and its dynamics in productive areas or about number of producers is insufficient and/or out of date. At O-AUPA (Spanish acronym for Observatory of Urban and Peri-urban Agriculture and Agroecology) different mapping strategies are developed to contribute to the understanding of the land dynamics in the Green Belt of Córdoba (GBC) and the rural environments surrounding the city. In this work, we present a method based on the use of remote sensing and geographical information systems to characterize urban, peri-urban and rural areas of Córdoba city with the aim of evaluating the temporal dynamics of urban growth and the current state of land use and cover. We mapped and quantified the urban growth between 1974 and 2014, and evaluated land use in peri-urban and rural areas in 2015. We used satellite information from Landsat TM 5 to map the urban growth via a principal component analysis (PCA) and SPOT 5 imagery to characterize the current land use and land cover with the support vector machine classification algorithm. The results show an urban area growth of 46.5% over almost 40 years within the boundaries of the Capital department. Farm plot size increased, showing a concentration of land ownership, implying a reduced number of producers. Evidence indicates the importance of defining land planning guidelines that limit the advance of the urban frontier to valuable agricultural systems, ensure diversification of productive activities and protect and develop the fresh food production systems at the local level.

scholarly journals Integrating Data-Driven and Participatory Modeling to Simulate Future Urban Growth Scenarios: Findings from Monastir, Tunisia

Urban Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Mostapha Harb ◽  
Matthias Garschagen ◽  
Davide Cotti ◽  
Elke Krätzschmar ◽  
Hayet Baccouche ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Growth ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Sustainable Urban Development ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
Participatory Modeling ◽  
Urban Growth Scenarios ◽  
Business As Usual ◽  
The City

Current rapid urbanization trends in developing countries present considerable challenges to local governments, potentially hindering efforts towards sustainable urban development. To effectively anticipate the challenges posed by urbanization, participatory modeling techniques can help to stimulate future-oriented decision-making by exploring alternative development scenarios. With the example of the coastal city of Monastir, we present the results of an integrated urban growth analysis that combines the SLEUTH (slope, land use, exclusion, urban extent, transportation, and hill shade) cellular automata model with qualitative inputs from relevant local stakeholders to simulate urban growth until 2030. While historical time-series of Landsat data fed a business-as-usual prediction, the quantification of narrative storylines derived from participatory scenario workshops enabled the creation of four additional urban growth scenarios. Results show that the growth of the city will occur at different rates under all scenarios. Both the “business-as-usual” (BaU) prediction and the four scenarios revealed that urban expansion is expected to further encroach on agricultural land by 2030. The various scenarios suggest that Monastir will expand between 127–149 hectares. The information provided here goes beyond simply projecting past trends, giving decision-makers the necessary support for both understanding possible future urban expansion pathways and proactively managing the future growth of the city.

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