scholarly journals Simulation and prediction of Shanghai urban spatial change based on random forest and CA-Markov model

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Xuewei Dang ◽  
Liang Zhou ◽  
Xiaoen Li ◽  
Haowei Mu ◽  
Lei Che ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Planning ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Urban Land Use ◽  
City Center ◽  
Urban Simulation ◽  
The City ◽  
Red Line

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> In the context of rapid urbanization, accurate assessment of urban expansion has become increasingly important for urban sustainable development, and smart growth theory has been put forward to avoid urban sprawl. Previous studies about urban expansion simulation focused only on ecological constrain which prevent urban growth from developing in specific regions. However, government decision-making and urban planning greatly influence urban development and limit the disorderly expansion of the urban. In this paper, we consider planning policies into urban simulation and uses the ecological protection red line, farmland protection red line and cultural protection control line as limiting factors for future urban simulation. Choosing Shanghai as the study area, we integrated Random Forests Algorithm (RFA), Markov chain and Cellular Automata (CA) to simulate urban expansion in 2015, and further predict the urban expansion in 2020, 2025 and 2030. The results show that the overall accuracy of urban land use simulation in 2015 is 93.86%, and the kappa coefficient is 0.8577. The model has a good simulation effect. Furthermore, the predicted results in 2020, 2025 and 2030 show that the urban land area in Shanghai is still increasing, and the spatial distribution of urban land has obvious circle structure and regional differences. The urban areas within 10km from the city center are growing slowly, and the region within 30km from the city center is growing faster, and there are more new urban points from 2025 to 2030. But in the area 30km away from the city center, different administrative areas show different urban growth phenomena. Among them, there are a large number of new urban points in the junction area between Songjiang District and Jinshan District, which may be the focus of future urban development planning in Shanghai. The proposed model and the results can help planners study the evolution of urban patterns and develop further urban planning.</p>

HISTORICAL FORTIFICATIONS IN THE ARCHITECTURAL AND URBAN PLANNING STRUCTURE OF LVIV (ON MARGINES DOCUMENTATION "HISTORICAL AND ARCHITECTURAL REFERENCE PLAN OF LVIV")

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-125
Author(s):  
Bevz M ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Planning ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Residential Development ◽  
Development Projects ◽  
City Center ◽  
Military Engineer ◽  
Ancient City ◽  
Special Scientific ◽  
Design Documentation ◽  
The City

Ancient city fortifications are one of the specific types of defensive architecture. Along with the buildings of castles, blocks of urban residential development, monastery complexes and field defensive structures, they formed a special type of architectural and urban planning objects. During their construction, the skills of both an architect, builder, and military engineer were often combined. Not so many objects of urban defense architecture have come down to our time. Therefore, every fragment of the city's defensive walls and earthen fortifications preserved today, as a rule, is a valuable document of its era and needs careful protection and preservation. Urban fortifications (as opposed to fortifications of castles or fortresses) were the objects of priority liquidation in the process of urban development. There are very few of them preserved in Ukraine, so their preservation and study is a matter of extreme importance. Lviv is a unique city on the map of Ukraine in terms of the development of urban fortifications. The article analyzes the reflection of objects and monuments of defense construction in the scientific and design documentation "Historical and Architectural Reference Plan of the City of Lviv". Data on the stages of development of Lviv fortifications are highlighted. Special attention is paid to the remains of fortifications that have been preserved in the archaeological form. Their identification, conservation and identification is important task for modern urban development projects. The paper makes hypotheses about some hitherto unidentified elements of fortifications of the XVII-XVIII centuries. Special emphasis is placed on the need for a special scientific study on the detailed reconstruction of all stages of the development of defense belts around the city center and suburbs of Lviv

scholarly journals Dynamic simulation of urban expansion based on cellular automata and logistic regression model: Case study of Hyrcanian region of Iran

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meisam Jafari ◽  
Seyed Masoud Monavari ◽  
Hamid Majedi ◽  
Ali Asghar Alesheikh ◽  
Mirmasoud Kheirkhah Zarkesh
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Urban Land Use ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Hyrcanian Forests

Although, promotion of urbanization culture in recent decades has made inevitable development of cities in the world, however, the development can be guided in a direction that leave, to the extent possible, minimum socioeconomic and environmental impacts. For this, it is required to first forecast auto-spreading orientation of cities and suburbs in rural areas over time and then avoid shapeless growth of cities. This paper is an attempt to develop a dynamic hybrid model based on logistic regression (LR), Markov chain (MC), and cellular automata (CA) for prediction of future urban sprawl in fast-growing cities. The model was developed using 12 widely-used urban development criteria, whose significant coefficient was determined by logistic regression, and validated by relative operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The validated model was run in Guilan, a tourist province in northern Iran with a very high rate of urban development. For this, changes in the area of urban land use were detected over the period of 1989 to 2013 and then, future sprawl of the province was forecasted by the years 2025 and 2037. The analysis results revealed that the area of urban land use was increased by more than 1.7 % from 36012.5 ha in 1989 to 59754.8 ha in 2013, and the area of Caspian Hyrcanian forestland was reduced by 31628 ha. The results also predicted an alarming increase in the rate of urban development in the province by the years 2025 and 2037, during which urban land use is predicted to develop 0.9 % and 1.38 %, respectively. The development pattern is expected to be uneven and scattered, without following any particular direction. The development will occur close to the existing or newly-formed urban basements as well as around major roads and commercial areas. This development, if not controlled, will lead to the loss of 13863 ha of Hyrcanian forests and if the trend continues, 21013 ha of Hyrcanian forests and 20208 ha of Barren/open lands are expected to be destroyed by the year 2037. In general, the proposed model is an efficient tool for the support of urban planning decisions and facilitates the process of sustainable development of cities by providing decision-makers with an overview on future development of cities where the growth rate is very fast.

scholarly journals Comprehensive environmental evaluation of an urbanized territory (using the example of Zavodoukovsk city, Russia)

2019 ◽  
Vol 110 ◽  
pp. 02114
Author(s):  
Marina Podkovyrova ◽  
Olga Volobueva ◽  
Larisa Gilyova
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Urban Land Use ◽  
Land Resources ◽  
Environmental Evaluation ◽  
Urbanized Territory ◽  
The City

The article presents the technique and the result of a comprehensive evaluation of urban land use, ensuring the receipt of complete and reliable information about the urban development, socio-economic and environmental conditions of urban land resources that allows forming the maximum possible sustainable development of the city for the future.

scholarly journals SUSTAINABLE LAND USE EVALUATION BASED ON PRESERVATIVE APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol XLII-2/W11 ◽  
pp. 653-660
Author(s):  
S. Khademi ◽  
M. Norouzi ◽  
M. Hashemi
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Urban Planning ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Sustainability Indicators ◽  
Urban Land Use ◽  
Sustainable Land Use ◽  
Ancient Monuments ◽  
The City

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Determining the manner of land-use and the spatial structure of cities on the one hand, and the economic value of each piece of land on the other hand, land-use planning is always considered as the main part of urban planning. In this regard, emphasizing the efficient use of land, the sustainable development approach has presented a new perspective on urban planning and consequently on its most important pillar, i.e. land-use planning. In order to evaluate urban land-use, it has been attempted in this paper to select the most significant indicators affecting urban land-use and matching sustainable development indicators. Due to the significance of preserving ancient monuments and the surroundings as one of the main pillars of achieving sustainability, in this research, sustainability indicators have been selected emphasizing the preservation of ancient monuments and historical observance of the city of Susa as one of the historical cities of Iran. It has also been attempted to integrate these criteria with other land-use sustainability indicators. For this purpose, Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) and the AHP model have been used for providing maps displaying spatial density and combining layers as well as providing final maps respectively. Moreover, the rating of sustainability will be studied in different districts of the city of Shush so as to evaluate the status of land sustainability in different parts of the city. The results of the study show that different neighborhoods of Shush do not have the same sustainability in land-use such that neighborhoods located in the eastern half of the city, i.e. the new neighborhoods, have a higher sustainability than those of the western half. It seems that the allocation of a high percentage of these areas to arid lands and historical areas is one of the main reasons for their sustainability.</p>

scholarly journals Urban growth dynamics based on surface Albedo changes in Petrolina, Brazil

2020 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
pp. e46270
Author(s):  
Michele Laurentino de Oliveira ◽  
Iana Alexandra Alves Rufino ◽  
John Elton de Brito Leite Cunha ◽  
Rochele Sheila Vasconcelos ◽  
Higor Costa de Brito
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Urban Land Use

Cities keep growing, and in most of the cases this expansion process is hard to model and describe for planning actions. Quantitative methods are increasingly used to help planning, monitoring, and regulating urban land-use processes. Remote sensing images series are making possible different types of spatial-temporal analysis of the Earth surface. Surface albedo is a remote sensing product acquired in a long series of satellite images such as Landsat (more than 40 years of observation). Those analyses allow measuring waterproofed areas for urban drainage studies, as well as monitoring urban spreading patterns, growth vectors, and issues related to comfort and environmental quality, as well as about land use and land-use planning (directives for master plans) among others. This article shows the direct applicability of surface albedo changes as an indicator of urban land-cover changes. The current study analyzed the urban area of Petrolina County (PE) in the following periods: 2001 and 2006, 2006 and 2011, and 2011 and 2017. Such analysis uses the surface albedo variation along the time and results showed a strong correlation between increased surface albedo and urban expansion. Besides, it enabled to observe the relation between the high urban growth in the 2011-2017 period and the urban spot expansion by 14% (approximately 590 thousand square meters of territorial extension). The Urban development stood out in the Northern and Southwestern regions of Petrolina County.

scholarly journals Urban Fire Dynamics and Its Association with Urban Growth: Evidence from Nanjing, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoxiang Zhang ◽  
Jing Yao ◽  
Katarzyna Sila-Nowicka ◽  
Yuhao Jin
Keyword(s):  
Urban Growth ◽  
Hot Spots ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Fire Dynamics ◽  
Fire Incident ◽  
Urban Fire ◽  
Spatial Analytics ◽  
The City

Many Chinese cities currently are facing increased urban fire risks particularly at places such as urban villages, high-rise buildings and large warehouses. Using a unique historical fire incident dataset (2002–2013), this paper is intended to explore the urban fire dynamics and its association with urban growth in Nanjing, China, with a geographical information system (GIS)-based spatial analytics and remote sensing (RS) techniques. A new method is proposed to define a range of fire hot spots characterizing different phases of fire incident evolution, which are compared with the urban growth in the same periods. The results suggest that the fire events have been largely concentrated in the city proper and meanwhile expanding towards the suburbs, which has a similar temporal trend to the growth of population and urban land at the city level particularly since 2008. Most intensifying and persistent fire hot spots are found in the central districts, which have limited urban expansion but high population densities. Most new hot spots are located in the suburban districts, which have seen both rapid population growth and urban expansion in recent years. However, the analysis at a finer spatial scale (500 m × 500 m) shows no evidences of an explicit connection between the locations of new fire hot spots and recently developed urban land. The findings can inform future urban and emergency planning with respect to the deployment of fire and rescue resources, ultimately improving urban fire safety.

scholarly journals Multi-Scenario Simulation of Urban Growth Under Integrated Urban Spatial Planning: A Case Study of Wuhan, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (20) ◽  
pp. 11279
Author(s):  
Haofeng Wang ◽  
Yaolin Liu ◽  
Guangxia Zhang ◽  
Yiheng Wang ◽  
Jun Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Urban Planning ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Simulation Accuracy ◽  
Ca Model ◽  
Development Area ◽  
The Impact

Although many publications have noted the impact of urban planning on urban development and land-use change, the incorporation of planning constraints into urban growth simulation has not been adequately addressed so far. This study aims to develop a planning-constrained cellular automata (CA) model by combining cell-based trade-off between urban growth and natural conservation with a zoning-based planning implementation mechanism. By adjusting the preference parameters of different planning zones, multiple planning-constrained scenarios can be generated. Taking the Wuhan Urban Development Area (WUDA), China as a case study, the planning-constrained CA model was applied to simulate current and future urban scenarios. The results show a higher simulation accuracy compared to the model without planning constraints. With the weakening of planning constraints, urban growth tends to occupy more ecological and agricultural land with high conservation priority. With the increase in preference on urban growth or natural conservation, the future urban land pattern will become more fragmented. Furthermore, new urban land beyond the planned urban development area can be captured in future urban scenarios, which will provide certain early warning. The simulation of the current urban spatial pattern should help planners and decisionmakers to evaluate the past implementation of urban planning, and scenarios simulation can provide effective support for future urban planning by evaluating the consequences.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Fairness of Urban Lakes’ Distribution Based on Spatialization of Population Data: A Case Study of Wuhan Urban Development Zone

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (24) ◽  
pp. 4994 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Wu ◽  
Shen Yang ◽  
Xu Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Urban Development ◽  
Spatial Data ◽  
Central City ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Population Data ◽  
City Center ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
Development Zone ◽  
Urban Lakes ◽  
The City

Lake reclamation for urban construction has caused serious damage to lakes in cities undergoing rapid urbanization. This process affects urban ecological environment and leads to inconsistent urban expansion, population surge, and uneven distribution of urban lakes. This study measured the fairness of urban lakes’ distribution and explored the spatial matching relationship between service supply and user group demand. The interpretation and analysis of Wuhan’s remote sensing images, population, administrative area, traffic network, and other data in 2018 were used as the basis. Specifically, the spatial distribution pattern and fairness of lakes’ distribution in Wuhan urban development zone were investigated. This study establishes a geographic weighted regression (GWR) model of land cover types and population data based on a spatialization method of population data based on land use, and uses population spatial data and network accessibility analysis results to evaluate lake service levels in the study area. Macroscopically, the correlation analysis of sequence variables and Gini coefficient analysis method are used to measure the fairness of the Wuhan lake distribution problem and equilibrium degree, and the location entropy analysis is used to quantitatively analyze the fairness of lakes and Wuhan streets from the perspective of supply and demand location entropy. Levels improve the accuracy of the research. Results showed that (1) the area covered by lakes in Wuhan urban development zone is 1007.96 km2 within 60-min of walking, accounting for 30.6% of the total area of the study area. This area can house 5,050,275 people, accounting for 60.8% of Wuhan’s total population. (2) The lakes in the central city area are less fair than the lakes outside the Third Ring Road. (3) The service level of North Lake is the highest among all the lakes in the study area, and that of Hou Lake is the lowest. (4) The spatial layout of the fairness of the lakes’ distribution is roughly distributed in circles. The fairness level collapses toward the city center, indicating that the closer to the city center, the lower the fairness level.

scholarly journals Implications of Present Land Use Plan on Urban Growth and Environmental Sustainability in a Sub Saharan Africa City

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zakka Solomon Dyachia ◽  
Ariva Sugandi Permana ◽  
Chin Siong Ho ◽  
Adams Ndalai Baba ◽  
Oluwagbemiga Paul Agboola
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Modern Concept ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The City

Land use, urban development and environmental sustainability have become an interesting research arena as urban development would change the city landscape as well as generate environmental degradation. This paper looks at the missing link between land use planning and urban growth, and it implications for environmental sustainability in a selected sub Saharan Africa city of Kaduna, Nigeria. We assessed urban growth from historical GIS data of the city to evaluate the urban expansion. At the same time, regression analysis was used to established relationship between carbon emission and traffic volume in the city. A city characterized by weak land use planning has created a gap leading to uncoordinated land use planning and uncontrolled physical growth. A steady increase of built up area of 8,400.31 hectares in 1982 to an area of 17,120.5 hectares in 2015 can be a reflection of the presence of uncontrolled urban expansion. The lack of coordination between land use planning and urban growth has resulted to environmental ills within the city. One among the ills, is ubiquitous traffic congestion within the city leading to high carbon (CO2) emission. Findings shows a strong connection between emission and volume of traffic. In addition to findings, is the decline of green areas in the city. By this findings, it is suggested that the modern concept of land use planning which embraces flexibility, public participation and integration of environmental issues should be entrenched and allow to take the lead in the process of urban growth.

Urban Development Strategies of City Centers: The Case of Rafah City, Palestinian Territories

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 195
Author(s):  
Omar S. Asfour ◽  
Samar Abu Ghali
Keyword(s):  
Urban Development ◽  
Gaza Strip ◽  
Geographic Location ◽  
Development Strategies ◽  
Functional Requirements ◽  
City Center ◽  
Palestinian Territories ◽  
The Gaza Strip ◽  
The City ◽  
Commercial Center

City centers worldwide are perceived as essential parts of the city, where city memories are preserved and its identity is expressed. They are planned to satisfy the functional requirements and pleasurable qualities of the city. Under the accelerating urbanization of the modern city, several challenges face these centers including demographic, economic, and environmental challenges. This requires a continuous and incremental urban development process based on clear strategy and action plans. Thus, this study focuses on urban development strategies of city centers, with a focus on Rafah city located in the Gaza Strip, Palestinian Territories. The geographic location of this city near the Palestinian-Egyptian borders makes it a promising commercial city at local and regional levels. Thus, the current situation of Rafah city center has been analyzed, and several development strategies have been proposed. This has been done through a field survey based on observation and a questionnaire directed to city center users. It has been found that there is a great potential of Rafah city center to be developed as a commercial center. In this regard, several strategies and required actions have been proposed in the fields of transportation, environmental quality, shopping activities, investment opportunities, and visual perception.

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