scholarly journals Predicting the Distribution of the Invasive Species Leptocybe invasa: Combining MaxEnt and Geodetector Models

Insects ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 92
Author(s):  
Hua Zhang ◽  
Jinyue Song ◽  
Haoxiang Zhao ◽  
Ming Li ◽  
Wuhong Han
Keyword(s):  
Roc Curve ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Distribution Range ◽  
Invasive Pest ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Total Contribution ◽  
Actual Distribution ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Leptocybe Invasa

Leptocybe invasa is a globally invasive pest of eucalyptus plantations, and is steadily spread throughout China. Predicting the growth area of L. invasa in China is beneficial to the establishment of early monitoring, forecasting, and prevention of this pest. Based on 194 valid data points and 21 environmental factors of L. invasa in China, this study simulated the potential distribution area of L. invasa in China under three current and future climate scenarios (SSPs1–2.5, SSPs2–3.5, and SSPs5–8.5) via the MaxEnt model. The study used the species distribution model (SDM) toolbox in ArcGIS software to analyze the potential distribution range and change of L. invasa. The importance of crucial climate factors was evaluated by total contribution rate, knife-cut method, and environmental variable response curve, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to test and evaluate the accuracy of the model. The results showed that the simulation effect of the MaxEnt model is excellent (area under the ROC curve (AUC) = 0.982). The prediction showed that L. invasa is mainly distributed in Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, and surrounding provinces, which is consistent with the current actual distribution range. The distribution area of the potential high fitness zone of L. invasa in the next three scenarios increases by between 37.37% and 95.20% compared with the current distribution. Climate change affects the distribution of L. invasa, with the annual average temperature, the lowest temperature of the coldest month, the average temperature of the driest season, the average temperature of the coldest month, and the precipitation in the wettest season the most important. In the future, the core areas of the potential distribution of L. invasa in China will be located in Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, and Hainan. They tend to spread to high latitudes (Hubei, Anhui, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and other regions).

scholarly journals Global potential distribution prediction of Xanthium italicum based on Maxent model

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Zhang ◽  
Jieshi Tang ◽  
Gang Ren ◽  
Kaixin Zhao ◽  
Xianfang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Invasive Plant ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Total Contribution ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Average Annual Temperature ◽  
Alien Invasive Plants ◽  
The Cost ◽  
And Control

AbstractAlien invasive plants pose a threat to global biodiversity and the cost of control continues to rise. Early detection and prediction of potential risk areas are essential to minimize ecological and socio-economic costs. In this study, the Maxent model was used to predict current and future climatic conditions to estimate the potential global distribution of the invasive plant Xanthium italicum. The model consists of 366 occurrence records (10 repeats, 75% for calibration and 25% for verification) and 10 climate prediction variables. According to the model forecast, the distribution of X. italicum was expected to shrink in future climate scenarios with human intervention, which may be mainly caused by the rise in global average annual temperature. The ROC curve showed that the AUC values of the training set and the test set are 0.965 and 0.906, respectively, indicating that the prediction result of this model was excellent. The contribution rates of annual mean temperature, monthly mean diurnal temperature range, standard deviation of temperature seasonal change and annual average precipitation to the geographical distribution of X. italicum were 65.3%, 11.2%, 9.0%, and 7.7%, respectively, and the total contribution rate was 93.2%. These four variables are the dominant environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of X. italicum, and the influence of temperature is greater than that of precipitation. Through our study on the potential distribution prediction of X. italicum under the future climatic conditions, it has contribution for all countries to strengthen its monitoring, prevention and control, including early warning.

Analysis of Potential Distribution of Spodoptera Frugiperda In Northwest

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao Li ◽  
Jianghua Liao ◽  
Yuke Ya ◽  
Juan Liu ◽  
Jun Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spodoptera Frugiperda ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Maize Production ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Production Area ◽  
Auc Value ◽  
And Control ◽  
Lepidoptera Noctuidae

Abstract Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), a newly invaded pest that breaks out fast and severely, causes a serious threat to the national security of food production. In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the potentially suitable distribution area of S. frugiperda in Northwest China. The potential distribution of S. frugiperda was predicted using meteorological factors from the correlation analysis. According to the result, a satisfactory AUC value in the MaxEnt model indicates that the prediction model has good accuracy, which is sufficient for predicting the fitness zone of S. frugiperda in Northwest China. The prediction results show that the potential distribution risk of S. frugiperda is high in western Gansu, eastern Qinghai, Shaanxi, most regions of Ningxia, and part regions of Tibetan, and it also exists in Hami, Yili, Bozhou, Urumqi, Hotan, and Aksu in Xinjiang, and more than 60% of Northwest China are suitable distribution areas for S. frugiperda. As China's major wheat and maize production area, Northwest China is a crucial prevention area for S. frugiperda. Clarifying the potential geographical distribution of S. frugiperda in Northwest China is essential for early warning as well as prevention and control.

scholarly journals Conservation guidelines for the endangered Brown-eared pheasant based on the geographic information system and the MaxEnt model

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yilin Li ◽  
Xinhai Li ◽  
Zitan Song ◽  
Changqing Ding
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Distribution Range ◽  
Shanxi Province ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Beijing City ◽  
Minimum Convex Polygon ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Historical Distribution ◽  
Forest Coverage

We analyzed the synchronous relationship between forest cover and species distribution to explain the contraction in the distribution range of the brown-eared pheasant (Crossoptilon mantchuricum) in China. We consulted ancient texts to determine this pheasant’s historical distribution from 25 to 1947 CE. Based on this species’ habitat selection criteria, the history of the forests, ancient climate change records, and fossil data, we determined that the brown-eared pheasant’s historical distribution included the three provinces of Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Hebei. It once inhabited an area of about 320,000 km2, as calculated by the minimum convex polygon method (MCP) in ArcGIS 10.0. The current species distribution covers 46,800 km2 of the Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Hebei provinces, as well as Beijing city, while Shanxi remains the center of the distribution area. This pheasant’s distribution range has decreased by 85% over the past 2,000 years. We used the Mean Decrease Accuracy (MDA) index to assess the importance of the evaluation of 13 environmental factors using the Random Forests (RF) measure from the R 3.0.2 software platform. The results showed that vegetation is the most important determinant influencing distribution. We built a corresponding correlative relationship between the presence/absence of brown-eared pheasant and forest coverage and found that forest coverage in the north, northeast, central, and southeast areas of the Shanxi province were all less than 10% at the end of the Qing Dynasty (1911 CE). Our MaxEnt model indicated that the brown-eared pheasant had retreated to the western regions of Shanxi (AUC = 0.753) and that the historical distribution area had reduced synchronously with the disappearance of local forest cover in Shanxi. Wild brown-eared pheasant populations are stable in the Luliang Mountains, where forest coverage reached 13.2% in 2000. Consequently, we concluded that the distribution of this species is primarily determined by vegetation conditions and that forest cover was the most significant determining factor. To guarantee stable growth in the population and consistent distribution of the brown-eared pheasant, we suggest that forest coverage should be at least 48% in the natural reserves where the brown-eared pheasant is currently distributed.

scholarly journals Conservation guidelines for the endangered Brown-eared pheasant based on the geographic information system and the MaxEnt model

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yilin Li ◽  
Xinhai Li ◽  
Zitan Song ◽  
Changqing Ding
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Distribution Range ◽  
Shanxi Province ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Beijing City ◽  
Minimum Convex Polygon ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Historical Distribution ◽  
Forest Coverage

We analyzed the synchronous relationship between forest cover and species distribution to explain the contraction in the distribution range of the brown-eared pheasant (Crossoptilon mantchuricum) in China. We consulted ancient texts to determine this pheasant’s historical distribution from 25 to 1947 CE. Based on this species’ habitat selection criteria, the history of the forests, ancient climate change records, and fossil data, we determined that the brown-eared pheasant’s historical distribution included the three provinces of Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Hebei. It once inhabited an area of about 320,000 km2, as calculated by the minimum convex polygon method (MCP) in ArcGIS 10.0. The current species distribution covers 46,800 km2 of the Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Hebei provinces, as well as Beijing city, while Shanxi remains the center of the distribution area. This pheasant’s distribution range has decreased by 85% over the past 2,000 years. We used the Mean Decrease Accuracy (MDA) index to assess the importance of the evaluation of 13 environmental factors using the Random Forests (RF) measure from the R 3.0.2 software platform. The results showed that vegetation is the most important determinant influencing distribution. We built a corresponding correlative relationship between the presence/absence of brown-eared pheasant and forest coverage and found that forest coverage in the north, northeast, central, and southeast areas of the Shanxi province were all less than 10% at the end of the Qing Dynasty (1911 CE). Our MaxEnt model indicated that the brown-eared pheasant had retreated to the western regions of Shanxi (AUC = 0.753) and that the historical distribution area had reduced synchronously with the disappearance of local forest cover in Shanxi. Wild brown-eared pheasant populations are stable in the Luliang Mountains, where forest coverage reached 13.2% in 2000. Consequently, we concluded that the distribution of this species is primarily determined by vegetation conditions and that forest cover was the most significant determining factor. To guarantee stable growth in the population and consistent distribution of the brown-eared pheasant, we suggest that forest coverage should be at least 48% in the natural reserves where the brown-eared pheasant is currently distributed.

scholarly journals Study on the Potential Distribution of Leptinotarsa decemlineata and Its Natural Enemy Picromerus bidens Under Climate Change

2022 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinyue Gao ◽  
Qing Zhao ◽  
Jiufeng Wei ◽  
Hufang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Natural Enemy ◽  
Leptinotarsa Decemlineata ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Plant Production ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Monitoring And Control ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Climatic Scenarios ◽  
And Control

The Colorado potato beetle (CPB), scientifically known as Leptinotarsa decemlineata, is a destructive quarantine pest that has invaded more than 40 countries and regions worldwide. It causes a 20–100% reduction in plant production, leading to severe economic losses. Picromerus bidens L. is a predatory insect that preys on CPB. This study used the MaxEnt model to predict the current and future potential distribution areas of CPB and P. bidens under different climatic scenarios to determine the possibility of using P. bidens as a natural enemy to control CPB. The possible introduction routes of CPB and P. bidens were subsequently predicted by combining their potential distribution with the current distribution of airports and ports. Notably, the potential distribution area of P. bidens was similar to that of CPB, suggesting that P. bidens could be used as a natural enemy to control CPB. Future changes in the suitable growth areas of CPB under different climate scenarios increased and decreased but were insignificant, while those of P. bidens decreased. Consequently, a reduction of the suitable habitats of P. bidens may cause a decrease in its population density, leading to a lack of adequate and timely prevention and control of invasive pests. Active measures should thus be enacted to minimize global warming and protect biodiversity. This study provides a theoretical basis and data support for early warning, monitoring, and control of the CPB spread.

scholarly journals DISTRIBUCIÓN, ECOLOGÍA Y ESTADO ACTUAL DEL TAPIR (Tapirus bairdii) EN HONDURAS

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
Héctor Orlando Portillo Reyes ◽  
Fausto Elvir ◽  
Marcio Martínez
Keyword(s):  
Habitat Loss ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Cloud Forest ◽  
Agricultural Landscapes ◽  
Distribution Range ◽  
Local Extinction ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Hunting Pressure ◽  
The Caribbean

ResumenSe modeló la distribución potencial del tapir en Honduras, utilizando el programa MaxEnt. Se identificaron las áreas de idoneidad con base en la correlación de los registros de la presencia de la especie y 19 variables climáticas. Los resultados predicen un área aproximada para Honduras de 19,751 km2, lo que representa el 17.55% del territorio hondureño. Se obtuvo un auc de 0.933 y se mostraron valores de 0.32 a 1 en la distribución potencial del tapir. El territorio de la especie se limita a los bosques nublados del caribe hondureño, a una pequeña porción del centro montañoso de Honduras, así como la región de la Moskitia. El hábitat de la distribución del tapir se encuentra fragmentado y aislado, dominado principalmente por paisajes agrícolas. Así mismo el tapir se encuentra amenazado por la presión de cacería y la pérdida de su hábitat por deforestación. De no implementar mayores esfuerzos en la conservación del tapir, esta especie está destinada a extirparse en gran parte de su rango de distribución en Honduras.Palabras clave: distribución potencial, extinción local, idoneidad, MaxEnt.AbstractPotential distribution for tapir in Honduras was modeled using the MaxEnt program. Suitable areas were identified for tapir, correlated and based on records of the presence of the species and 19 climatic variables. The results predicted a potential distribution area in Honduras of 19,751 km2 representing 17.55% of Honduran territory; showing an auc of 0.993 and values from 0.32 to 1 in the potential distribution of the tapir. The tapir territory is represented in the Caribbean by cloud forest and a few high lands in the central east of Honduras and the Moskitia region. The habitat of the tapir is fragmented and isolated, dominated by agricultural landscapes. The tapir is threatened by hunting pressure and habitat loss due to deforestation. If conservation efforts are not improved, this specie will disappear from its distribution range in Honduras.Key words: potential distribution, local extinction, adequacy, MaxEnt.

scholarly journals Potential distribution of the endangered endemic lizard Liolaemus lutzae Mertens, 1938 (Liolaemidae): are there other suitable areas for a geographically restricted species?

2014 ◽  
Vol 74 (2) ◽  
pp. 338-348 ◽  
Author(s):  
GR. Winck ◽  
P. Almeida-Santos ◽  
CFD. Rocha
Keyword(s):  
Geographic Distribution ◽  
Diurnal Temperature Range ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Sand Dune ◽  
Loss Rate ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Environmental Matrices ◽  
High Loss ◽  
Original Distribution ◽  
High Loss Rate

In this study we attempted to access further information on the geographical distribution of the endangered lizard Liolaemus lutzae, estimating its potential distribution through the maximum entropy algorithm. For this purpose, we related its points of occurrence with matrices of environmental variables. After examining the correlation between environmental matrices, we selected 10 for model construction. The main variables influencing the current geographic distribution of L. lutzae were the diurnal temperature range and altitude. The species endemism seemed to be a consequence of a reduction of the original distribution area. Alternatively, the resulting model may reflect the geographic distribution of an ancestral lineage, since the model selected areas of occurrence of the two other species of Liolaemus from Brazil (L. arambarensis and L. occipitalis), all living in sand dune habitats and having psamophilic habits. Due to the high loss rate of habitat occupied by the species, the conservation and recovery of the remaining areas affected by human actions is essential.

scholarly journals Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Xerophytic Shrub Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica) under Two Climate Change Scenarios

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 530 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gonzalo Vargas-Piedra ◽  
Ricardo David Valdez-Cepeda ◽  
Armando López-Santos ◽  
Arnoldo Flores-Hernández ◽  
Nathalie S. Hernández-Quiroz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Importance ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica Zucc.) is a shrub species distributed throughout the Chihuahuan Desert in northern Mexico and southern of the United States of America. Candelilla has an economic importance due to natural wax it produces. The economic importance and the intense harvest of the wax from candelilla seems to gradually reduce the natural populations of this species. The essence of this research was to project the potential distribution of candelilla populations under different climate change scenarios in its natural distribution area in North America. We created a spatial database with points of candelilla presence, according to the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). A spatial analysis to predict the potential distribution of the species using Maxent software was performed. Thirteen of 19 variables from the WorldClim database were used for two scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (4.5 as a conservative and 8.5 as extreme). We used climate projections from three global climate models (GCMs) (Max Planck institute, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and the Met Office Hadley), each simulating the two scenarios. The final predicted distribution areas were classified in five on-site possible candelilla habitat suitability categories: none (< 19%), low (20–38%), medium (39–57%), high (58–76%) and very high (> 77%). According to the area under the curve (0.970), the models and scenarios used showed an adequate fit to project the current and future distribution of candelilla. The variable that contributed the most in the three GCMs and the two RCPs was the mean temperature of the coldest quarter with an influence of 45.7% (Jackknife test). The candelilla’s distribution area for North America was predicted as approximately 19.1 million hectares under the current conditions for the high habitat suitability; however, the projection for the next fifty years is not promising because the GCMs projected a reduction of more than 6.9 million hectares using either the conservative or extreme scenarios. The results are useful for conservation of the species in the area with vulnerable wild populations, as well as for the selection of new sites suitable for the species growth and cultivation while facing climate change.

scholarly journals The potential geographical distribution and phenology of Bemisia tabaci Middle East/Asia Minor 1, considering irrigation and glasshouse production

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (5) ◽  
pp. 567-576 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. J. Kriticos ◽  
P. J. De Barro ◽  
T. Yonow ◽  
N. Ota ◽  
R. W. Sutherst
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Open Field ◽  
Bemisia Tabaci ◽  
Species Complex ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Invasive Pest ◽  
Asia Minor ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Pest Species

AbstractThe Bemisia tabaci species complex is one of the most important pests of open field and protected cropping globally. Within this complex, one species (Middle East Asia Minor 1, B. tabaci MEAM1, formerly biotype B) has been especially problematic, invading widely and spreading a large variety of plant pathogens, and developing broad spectrum pesticide resistance. Here, we fit a CLIMEX model to the distribution records of B. tabaci MEAM1, using experimental observations to calibrate its temperature responses. In fitting the model, we consider the effects of irrigation and glasshouses in extending its potential range. The validated niche model estimates its potential distribution as being considerably broader than its present known distribution, especially in the Americas, Africa and Asia. The potential distribution of the fitted model encompasses the known distribution of B. tabaci sensu lato, highlighting the magnitude of the threat posed globally by this invasive pest species complex and the viruses it vectors to open field and protected agriculture.

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