scholarly journals Global potential distribution prediction of Xanthium italicum based on Maxent model

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Zhang ◽  
Jieshi Tang ◽  
Gang Ren ◽  
Kaixin Zhao ◽  
Xianfang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Invasive Plant ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Total Contribution ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Average Annual Temperature ◽  
Alien Invasive Plants ◽  
The Cost ◽  
And Control

AbstractAlien invasive plants pose a threat to global biodiversity and the cost of control continues to rise. Early detection and prediction of potential risk areas are essential to minimize ecological and socio-economic costs. In this study, the Maxent model was used to predict current and future climatic conditions to estimate the potential global distribution of the invasive plant Xanthium italicum. The model consists of 366 occurrence records (10 repeats, 75% for calibration and 25% for verification) and 10 climate prediction variables. According to the model forecast, the distribution of X. italicum was expected to shrink in future climate scenarios with human intervention, which may be mainly caused by the rise in global average annual temperature. The ROC curve showed that the AUC values of the training set and the test set are 0.965 and 0.906, respectively, indicating that the prediction result of this model was excellent. The contribution rates of annual mean temperature, monthly mean diurnal temperature range, standard deviation of temperature seasonal change and annual average precipitation to the geographical distribution of X. italicum were 65.3%, 11.2%, 9.0%, and 7.7%, respectively, and the total contribution rate was 93.2%. These four variables are the dominant environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of X. italicum, and the influence of temperature is greater than that of precipitation. Through our study on the potential distribution prediction of X. italicum under the future climatic conditions, it has contribution for all countries to strengthen its monitoring, prevention and control, including early warning.

scholarly journals Influence of natural and climatic factors on the organization of construction

2020 ◽  
Vol 164 ◽  
pp. 08006
Author(s):  
Marat Kuzhin ◽  
Ekaterina Chepik ◽  
Angelina Baranova
Keyword(s):  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Technical Documentation ◽  
Construction Work ◽  
Natural Conditions ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Monolithic Structures ◽  
Cost Of Construction

In this research the influence of natural and climatic conditions on the organization of construction production are examined. Our purpose was to identify the nature of the dependence of the duration of construction work on natural and climatic factors. The analysis of normative and technical documentation in terms of accounting for the influence of natural and climatic factors was made. The system of estimation of influence of natural conditions on preparatory, ground, facade, roofing works, and also the appliance of monolithic structures, installation of prefabricated ferroconcrete items, and on works – implementation of internal finishing is offered. It was estimated, that the norms of construction production take into account a certain number of natural and climatic factors affecting the performance of work, but most of these factors have not yet been given in the normative and technical documentation. It is necessary to study this issue more comprehensively and to establish exact dependences on natural and climatic conditions, which will allow to quantify these factors already while calculating. This is necessary to compile more accurate calendar plans and schedules of production of works, as close as possible to real conditions. The study of this issue is one of the most important issues in the design of construction production. With insufficient consideration of these factors, the final actual figures are very different from the projected ones, which also lead to an increase in the cost of construction and installation work and the duration of their implementation. Taking into consideration the influence of natural and climatic factors will allow planning construction production more accurate.

scholarly journals Habitat Suitability Study of Hylomecon Japonica Based on Maxent Model in China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cao Zhen ◽  
Zhang Xiaoyan ◽  
Xue Xuanji ◽  
Zhang Lei ◽  
Zhan Guanqun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Jackknife Test ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Growth Area ◽  
The Mean

Abstract Background: To understand the potential distribution and habitat suitability of H. japonica in China. And to provide guidance for the wild cultivation and standardized planting of H. japonica. Methods: The maximum entropy model (Maxent) and geographic information system (ArcGIS) were applied to predict the potential suitable habitat of H. japonica species, and the contribution of variables were evaluated by using the jackknife test. Results: The AUC value confirmed the accuracy of the model prediction based on 101 occurrence records. The potential distributions of H. japonica were mainly concentrated in Jilin, Liaoning, Shaanxi and other provinces (adaptability index>0.6). Jackknife experiment showed that the precipitation of driest month (35.6%), precipitation of wettest quarter (13.4%), the mean annual temperature (7.8%) and the subclass of soil (7.8%) were the most important factors affecting the potential distribution of H. japonica. Conclusion: The niche parameters of the most suitable growth area (adaptability index>0.8) for H. japonica were precipitation of driest month (5 mm), precipitation of wettest quarter (400-490 mm), the mean annual temperature (-2-4 °C) and the subclass of soil (Glossy Chernozem, Gleyic Lime, Haplic Gypsisols).

scholarly journals Predicting the Potential Distribution of Hylomecon japonica in China under Current and Future Climate Change Based on Maxent Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (20) ◽  
pp. 11253
Author(s):  
Zhen Cao ◽  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Xinxin Zhang ◽  
Zengjun Guo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Jackknife Test ◽  
Maxent Model

Hylomecon japonica is considered a natural medicinal plant with anti-inflammatory, anticancer and antibacterial activity. The assessment of climate change impact on its habitat suitability is important for the wild cultivation and standardized planting of H. japonica. In this study, the maximum entropy model (Maxent) and geographic information system (ArcGIS) were applied to predict the current and future distribution of H. japonica species, and the contributions of variables were evaluated by using the jackknife test. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value confirmed the accuracy of the model prediction based on 102 occurrence records. The predicted potential distributions of H. japonica were mainly concentrated in Jilin, Liaoning, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Henan, Heilongjiang and other provinces (adaptability index > 0.6). The jackknife experiment showed that the precipitation of driest month (40.5%), mean annual temperature (12.4%), the precipitation of wettest quarter (11.6%) and the subclass of soil (9.7%) were the most important factors affecting the potential distribution of H. japonica. In the future, only under the shared socioeconomic Pathway 245 (SSP 245) scenario model in 2061–2080, the suitable habitat area for H. japonica is expected to show a significant upward trend. The area under other scenarios may not increase or decrease significantly.

scholarly journals Predicting the Distribution of the Invasive Species Leptocybe invasa: Combining MaxEnt and Geodetector Models

Insects ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 92
Author(s):  
Hua Zhang ◽  
Jinyue Song ◽  
Haoxiang Zhao ◽  
Ming Li ◽  
Wuhong Han
Keyword(s):  
Roc Curve ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Distribution Range ◽  
Invasive Pest ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Total Contribution ◽  
Actual Distribution ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Leptocybe Invasa

Leptocybe invasa is a globally invasive pest of eucalyptus plantations, and is steadily spread throughout China. Predicting the growth area of L. invasa in China is beneficial to the establishment of early monitoring, forecasting, and prevention of this pest. Based on 194 valid data points and 21 environmental factors of L. invasa in China, this study simulated the potential distribution area of L. invasa in China under three current and future climate scenarios (SSPs1–2.5, SSPs2–3.5, and SSPs5–8.5) via the MaxEnt model. The study used the species distribution model (SDM) toolbox in ArcGIS software to analyze the potential distribution range and change of L. invasa. The importance of crucial climate factors was evaluated by total contribution rate, knife-cut method, and environmental variable response curve, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to test and evaluate the accuracy of the model. The results showed that the simulation effect of the MaxEnt model is excellent (area under the ROC curve (AUC) = 0.982). The prediction showed that L. invasa is mainly distributed in Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, and surrounding provinces, which is consistent with the current actual distribution range. The distribution area of the potential high fitness zone of L. invasa in the next three scenarios increases by between 37.37% and 95.20% compared with the current distribution. Climate change affects the distribution of L. invasa, with the annual average temperature, the lowest temperature of the coldest month, the average temperature of the driest season, the average temperature of the coldest month, and the precipitation in the wettest season the most important. In the future, the core areas of the potential distribution of L. invasa in China will be located in Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, and Hainan. They tend to spread to high latitudes (Hubei, Anhui, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and other regions).

Analysis of Potential Distribution of Spodoptera Frugiperda In Northwest

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao Li ◽  
Jianghua Liao ◽  
Yuke Ya ◽  
Juan Liu ◽  
Jun Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spodoptera Frugiperda ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Maize Production ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Production Area ◽  
Auc Value ◽  
And Control ◽  
Lepidoptera Noctuidae

Abstract Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), a newly invaded pest that breaks out fast and severely, causes a serious threat to the national security of food production. In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the potentially suitable distribution area of S. frugiperda in Northwest China. The potential distribution of S. frugiperda was predicted using meteorological factors from the correlation analysis. According to the result, a satisfactory AUC value in the MaxEnt model indicates that the prediction model has good accuracy, which is sufficient for predicting the fitness zone of S. frugiperda in Northwest China. The prediction results show that the potential distribution risk of S. frugiperda is high in western Gansu, eastern Qinghai, Shaanxi, most regions of Ningxia, and part regions of Tibetan, and it also exists in Hami, Yili, Bozhou, Urumqi, Hotan, and Aksu in Xinjiang, and more than 60% of Northwest China are suitable distribution areas for S. frugiperda. As China's major wheat and maize production area, Northwest China is a crucial prevention area for S. frugiperda. Clarifying the potential geographical distribution of S. frugiperda in Northwest China is essential for early warning as well as prevention and control.

scholarly journals Predicting the Potential Distribution of Two Varieties of Litsea coreana (Leopard-Skin Camphor) in China under Climate Change

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1159
Author(s):  
Jinwen Pan ◽  
Xin Fan ◽  
Siqiong Luo ◽  
Yaqin Zhang ◽  
Shan Yao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Vegetation Growth ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Diurnal Range ◽  
Huai River ◽  
Suitable Area

Climate change considerably affects vegetation growth and may lead to changes in vegetation distribution. Leopard-skin camphor is an endangered species, and the main raw material for hawk tea, and has various pharmacodynamic functions. Studying the potential distribution of two leopard-skin camphor varieties under climate change should assist in the effective protection of these species. We collected the distribution point data for 130 and 89 Litsea coreana Levl. var. sinensis and L. coreana Levl. var. lanuginosa, respectively, and data for 22 environmental variables. We also predicted the potential distribution of the two varieties in China using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and analyzed the key environmental factors affecting their distribution. Results showed that the two varieties are mainly located in the subtropical area south of the Qinling Mountains–Huai River line in the current and future climate scenarios, and the potentially suitable area for L. coreana Levl. var. lanuginosa is larger than that of L. coreana Levl. var. sinensis. Compared with current climatic conditions, the potentially suitable areas of the two leopard-skin camphor varieties will move to high-latitude and -altitude areas and the total suitable area will increase slightly, while moderately and highly suitable areas will be significantly reduced under future climatic scenarios. For example, under a 2070-RCP8.5 (representative of a high greenhouse gas emission scenario in the 2070s) climatic scenario, the highly suitable areas of L. coreana Levl. var. sinensis and L. coreana Levl. var. lanuginosa are 6900 and 300 km2, and account for only 10.27% and 0.21% of the current area, respectively. Temperature is the key environmental factor affecting the potential distribution of the two varieties, especially the mean daily diurnal range (Bio2) and the min temperature of the coldest month (Bio6). The results can provide a reference for relevant departments in taking protective measures to prevent the decrease or extinction of the species under climate change.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Apocheima cinerarius (Erschoff) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae)

Insects ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 59
Author(s):  
Weicheng Ding ◽  
Hongyu Li ◽  
Junbao Wen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Insect Pests ◽  
Growth Index ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Temperate Zone ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
And Control

Among the impacts of ongoing and projected climate change are shifts in the distribution and severity of insect pests. Projecting those impacts is necessary to ensure effective pest management in the future. Apocheima cinerarius (Erschoff) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) is an important polyphagous forest pest in China where causes huge economic and ecological losses in 20 provinces. Under historical climatic conditions, the suitable areas for A. cinerarius in China are mainly in the northern temperate zone (30–50° N) and the southern temperate zone (20–60° S). Using the CLIMEX model, the potential distribution of the pest in China and globally, both historically and under climate change, were estimated. Suitable habitats for A. cinerarius occur in parts of all continents. With climate change, its potential distribution extends northward in China and generally elsewhere in the northern hemisphere, although effects vary depending on latitude. In other areas of the world, some habitats become less suitable for the species. Based on the simulated growth index in CLIMEX, the onset of A. cinerarius would be earlier under climate change in some of its potential range, including Spain and Korea. Measures should anticipate the need for prevention and control of A. cinerarius in its potential extended range in China and globally.

scholarly journals Study on the Potential Distribution of Leptinotarsa decemlineata and Its Natural Enemy Picromerus bidens Under Climate Change

2022 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinyue Gao ◽  
Qing Zhao ◽  
Jiufeng Wei ◽  
Hufang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Natural Enemy ◽  
Leptinotarsa Decemlineata ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Plant Production ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Monitoring And Control ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Climatic Scenarios ◽  
And Control

The Colorado potato beetle (CPB), scientifically known as Leptinotarsa decemlineata, is a destructive quarantine pest that has invaded more than 40 countries and regions worldwide. It causes a 20–100% reduction in plant production, leading to severe economic losses. Picromerus bidens L. is a predatory insect that preys on CPB. This study used the MaxEnt model to predict the current and future potential distribution areas of CPB and P. bidens under different climatic scenarios to determine the possibility of using P. bidens as a natural enemy to control CPB. The possible introduction routes of CPB and P. bidens were subsequently predicted by combining their potential distribution with the current distribution of airports and ports. Notably, the potential distribution area of P. bidens was similar to that of CPB, suggesting that P. bidens could be used as a natural enemy to control CPB. Future changes in the suitable growth areas of CPB under different climate scenarios increased and decreased but were insignificant, while those of P. bidens decreased. Consequently, a reduction of the suitable habitats of P. bidens may cause a decrease in its population density, leading to a lack of adequate and timely prevention and control of invasive pests. Active measures should thus be enacted to minimize global warming and protect biodiversity. This study provides a theoretical basis and data support for early warning, monitoring, and control of the CPB spread.

scholarly journals Modeling and mapping the habitat suitability and the potential distribution of Arboviruses vectors in Morocco

Parasite ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 28 ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Outammassine Abdelkrim ◽  
Boussaa Samia ◽  
Zouhair Said ◽  
Loqman Souad
Keyword(s):  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Vector Competence ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Vector Surveillance ◽  
Potential Vector ◽  
Potential Habitat ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
And Control

Mosquitoes transmit several agents of diseases and the presence of different species represents a threat to animal and public health. Aedes and Culex mosquitoes are of particular concern giving their potential vector competence for Arbovirus transmission. In Morocco, the lack of detailed information related to their spatial distribution raises major concerns and hampers effective vector surveillance and control. Using maximum entropy (Maxent) modeling, we generated prediction models for the potential distribution of Arboviruses vectors (Aedes aegypti, Ae. vexans, Ae. caspius, Ae. detritus, and Culex pipiens) in Morocco, under current climatic conditions. Also, we investigated the habitat suitability for the potential occurrence and establishment of Ae. albopictus and Ae. vittatus recorded only once in the country. Prediction models for these last two species were generated considering occurrence datasets from close countries of the Mediterranean Basin, where Ae. albopictus is well established, and from a worldwide database for the case of Ae. vittatus (model transferability). With the exception of Ae. vittatus, the results identify potential habitat suitability in Morocco for all mosquitos considered. Existing areas with maximum risk of establishment and high potential distribution were mainly located in the northwestern and central parts of Morocco. Our results essentially underline the assumption that Ae. albopictus, if not quickly controlled, might find suitable habitats and has the potential to become established, especially in the northwest of the country. These findings may help to better understand the potential distribution of each species and enhance surveillance efforts in areas identified as high risk.

Green peach aphid and potato leafroll virus: transmission and control

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
R.A. Bagrov ◽  
◽  
V.I. Leunov
Keyword(s):  
Myzus Persicae ◽  
Green Peach Aphid ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Potato Leafroll Virus ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Potato Viruses ◽  
Tuber Necrosis ◽  
Aphid Vectors ◽  
Leafroll Virus ◽  
And Control

The mechanisms of transmission of potato viruses from plants to aphid vectors and from aphids to uninfected plants are described, including the example of the green peach aphid (Myzus persicae, GPA). Factors affecting the spreading of tuber necrosis and its manifestation on plants infected with potato leafroll virus (PLRV) are discussed. Recommendations for PLRV and GPA control in the field are given.

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