scholarly journals Predicting the Global Distribution of Solenopsis geminata (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) under Climate Change Using the MaxEnt Model

Insects ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 229
Author(s):  
Cheol Min Lee ◽  
Dae-Seong Lee ◽  
Tae-Sung Kwon ◽  
Mohammad Athar ◽  
Young-Seuk Park
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Global Distribution ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Solenopsis Geminata ◽  
Proactive Management ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables

The tropical fire ant Solenopsis geminata (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) is a serious invasive species that causes a decline in agricultural production, damages infrastructure, and harms human health. This study was aimed to develop a model using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to predict the current and future distribution of S. geminata on a global scale for effective monitoring and management. In total, 669 occurrence sites of S. geminata and six bioclimatic variables of current and future climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2100 were used for the modeling. The annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and precipitation in the driest quarter were the key influential factors for determining the distribution of S. geminata. Although the potential global distribution area of S. geminata is predicted to decrease slightly under global warming, the distribution of favorable habitats is predicted to expand to high latitudes under climate scenarios. In addition, some countries in America and East Asia, such as Brazil, China, South Korea, the USA, and Uruguay, are predicted to be threatened by S. geminata invasion under future climate change. These findings can facilitate the proactive management of S. geminata through monitoring, surveillance, and quarantine measures.

Predictions of future grazing season length for European dairy, beef and sheep farms based on regression with bioclimatic variables

2015 ◽  
Vol 154 (5) ◽  
pp. 765-781 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. PHELAN ◽  
E. R. MORGAN ◽  
H. ROSE ◽  
J. GRANT ◽  
P. O'KIELY
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Season Length ◽  
The West ◽  
Grazing Season ◽  
North East ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYGrazing season length (GSL) on grassland farms with ruminant production systems can influence farm economics, livestock disease transmission, environmental impact, milk and meat quality, and consumer choice. Bioclimatic variables are biologically meaningful climate variables that may enable predictions of the impact of future climate change on GSL on European farms. The present study investigated the spatial relationship between current GSL (months) measured by EUROSTAT on dairy, beef and sheep farms in 706, 774 and 878 regions, respectively, and bioclimatic variables. A stepwise multiple regression model revealed a highly significant association between observed GSL and bioclimatic variables across Europe. Mean GSL was positively associated with the mean temperature of the coldest quarter and isothermality, and negatively associated with precipitation in the wettest month. Extrapolating these relationships to future climate change scenarios, most European countries were predicted to have a net increase in GSL with the increase being largest (up to 2·5 months) in the north-east of Europe. However, there were also predictions of increased variability between regions and decreases in GSL of up to 1·5 months in some areas such as the west of France, the south-west of Norway and the west coast of Britain. The study quantified and mapped the potential impact of climate change on GSL for dairy, beef and sheep farms across Europe.

The suitable distribution area of Tsuga longibracteata revealed by a climate and spatial constraint model under future climate change scenarios

2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (24) ◽  
Author(s):  
谭雪 TAN Xue ◽  
张林 ZHANG Lin ◽  
张爱平 ZHANG Aiping ◽  
王毅 WANG Yi ◽  
黄丹 HUANG Dan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Spatial Constraint ◽  
Constraint Model

scholarly journals Potential changes in the distribution of Delphinium bolosii and related taxa of the series Fissa from the Iberian Peninsula under future climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. 147-166
Author(s):  
Rubén Ramírez-Rodríguez ◽  
Manuel Melendo-Luque ◽  
Juan Diego Rus-Moreno ◽  
Francisco Amich
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climatic Scenarios

A particular threat posed by climate change for biodiversity conservation, one which has scarcely been studied, is the overlap of the potential distribution areas in phylogenetically closely related species. In this study, Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) was used to investigate the potential changes in the distribution of Delphinium bolosii and D. fissum subsp. sordidum under future climatic scenarios. These two closely related and endangered endemic species from the Iberian Peninsula do not have complete reproductive barriers between them. The two models selected different predictors with a similar effect in the biological cycle. Both taxa need low winter temperatures to break seed dormancy and sufficient rainfall to complete the flowering and fruiting stages. The current potential distribution areas of both taxa do not currently overlap. However, the results showed that potential changes may take place in the species’ distribution range under future climate scenarios. The models predict a reduction of the potential distribution area of D. bolosii while, conversely, the potential distribution area of D. fissum subsp. sordidum increased. In both cases, the predicted contraction in range is very high, and loss of habitat suitability in some current localities is worrying. Notwithstanding, the models do not predict overlaps of potential areas under climate change scenarios. Our findings can be used to define areas and populations of high priority for conservation or to take action against the impacts of climate change on these endangered species.

scholarly journals Mapping current and potential future distributions of the oak tree (Quercus aegilops) in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabaz R. Khwarahm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Oak Tree

Abstract Background The oak tree (Quercus aegilops) comprises ~ 70% of the oak forests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Besides its ecological importance as the residence for various endemic and migratory species, Q. aegilops forest also has socio-economic values—for example, as fodder for livestock, building material, medicine, charcoal, and firewood. In the KRI, Q. aegilops has been degrading due to anthropogenic threats (e.g., shifting cultivation, land use/land cover changes, civil war, and inadequate forest management policy) and these threats could increase as climate changes. In the KRI and Iraq as a whole, information on current and potential future geographical distributions of Q. aegilops is minimal or not existent. The objectives of this study were to (i) predict the current and future habitat suitability distributions of the species in relation to environmental variables and future climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070); and (ii) determine the most important environmental variables controlling the distribution of the species in the KRI. The objectives were achieved by using the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) algorithm, available records of Q. aegilops, and environmental variables. Results The model demonstrated that, under the RCP2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070 climate change scenarios, the distribution ranges of Q. aegilops would be reduced by 3.6% (1849.7 km2) and 3.16% (1627.1 km2), respectively. By contrast, the species ranges would expand by 1.5% (777.0 km2) and 1.7% (848.0 km2), respectively. The distribution of the species was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. Under future climate change scenarios, the centroid of the distribution would shift toward higher altitudes. Conclusions The results suggest (i) a significant suitable habitat range of the species will be lost in the KRI due to climate change by 2070 and (ii) the preference of the species for cooler areas (high altitude) with high annual precipitation. Conservation actions should focus on the mountainous areas (e.g., by establishment of national parks and protected areas) of the KRI as climate changes. These findings provide useful benchmarking guidance for the future investigation of the ecology of the oak forest, and the categorical current and potential habitat suitability maps can effectively be used to improve biodiversity conservation plans and management actions in the KRI and Iraq as a whole.

scholarly journals Predicted Future Benefits for an Endemic Rodent in the Irano-Turanian Region

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Suzanna Meeussen ◽  
Anouschka Hof
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Ranges ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is expected to have an impact on the geographical distribution ranges of species. Endemic species and those with a restricted geographic range may be especially vulnerable. The Persian jird (Meriones persicus) is an endemic rodent inhabiting the mountainous areas of the Irano-Turanian region, where future desertification may form a threat to the species. In this study, the species distribution modelling algorithm MaxEnt was used to assess the impact of future climate change on the geographic distribution range of the Persian jird. Predictions were made under two Representative Concentration Pathways and five different climate models for the years 2050 and 2070. It was found that both bioclimatic variables and land use variables were important in determining potential suitability of the region for the species to occur. In most cases, the future predictions showed an expansion of the geographic range of the Persian jird which indicates that the species is not under immediate threat. There are however uncertainties with regards to its current range. Predictions may therefore be an over or underestimation of the total suitable area. Further research is thus needed to confirm the current geographic range of the Persian jird to be able to improve assessments of the impact of future climate change.

Selection of models to describe the temperature-dependent development of Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) and its application to predict the species voltinism under future climate conditions

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Hevellyn Talissa dos Santos ◽  
Cesar Augusto Marchioro
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Linear Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Dependent Development ◽  
Degree Day ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The small tomato borer, Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée, 1854) is a multivoltine pest of tomato and other cultivated solanaceous plants. The knowledge on how N. elegantalis respond to temperature may help in the development of pest management strategies, and in the understanding of the effects of climate change on its voltinism. In this context, this study aimed to select models to describe the temperature-dependent development rate of N. elegantalis and apply the best models to evaluate the impacts of climate change on pest voltinism. Voltinism was estimated with the best fit non-linear model and the degree-day approach using future climate change scenarios representing intermediary and high greenhouse gas emission rates. Two out of the six models assessed showed a good fit to the observed data and accurately estimated the thermal thresholds of N. elegantalis. The degree-day and the non-linear model estimated more generations in the warmer regions and fewer generations in the colder areas, but differences of up to 41% between models were recorded mainly in the warmer regions. In general, both models predicted an increase in the voltinism of N. elegantalis in most of the study area, and this increase was more pronounced in the scenarios with high emission of greenhouse gases. The mathematical model (74.8%) and the location (9.8%) were the factors that mostly contributed to the observed variation in pest voltinism. Our findings highlight the impact of climate change on the voltinism of N. elegantalis and indicate that an increase in its population growth is expected in most regions of the study area.

Study on runoff simulation of the upstream of Minjiang River under future climate change scenarios

2014 ◽  
Vol 75 (S2) ◽  
pp. 139-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shifeng Huang ◽  
Wenbin Zang ◽  
Mei Xu ◽  
Xiaotao Li ◽  
Xuecheng Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Runoff Simulation ◽  
Minjiang River ◽  
Upstream Of Minjiang River

scholarly journals Current and future suitable habitat areas for Nasuella olivacea (Gray, 1865) in Colombia and Ecuador and analysis of its distribution across different land uses

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Medrano-Vizcaíno ◽  
Patricia Gutiérrez-Salazar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Wildlife Conservation ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ecological Niche Models

Nasuella olivacea is an endemic mammal from the Andes of Ecuador and Colombia. Due to its rarity, aspects about its natural history, ecology and distribution patterns are not well known, therefore, research is needed to generate knowledge about this carnivore and a first step is studying suitable habitat areas. We performed Ecological Niche Models and applied future climate change scenarios (2.6 and 8.5 RCP) to determine the potential distribution of this mammal in Colombia and Ecuador, with current and future climate change conditions; furthermore, we analysed its distribution along several land covers. We found that N. olivacea is likely to be found in areas where no records have been reported previously; likewise, climate change conditions would increase suitable distribution areas. Concerning land cover, 73.4% of N. olivacea potential distribution was located outside Protected Areas (PA), 46.1% in Forests and 40.3% in Agricultural Lands. These findings highlight the need to further research understudied species, furthering our understanding about distribution trends and responses to changing climatic conditions, as well as informig future PA designing. These are essential tools for supporting wildlife conservation plans, being applicable for rare species whose biology and ecology remain unknown.

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