scholarly journals The Relationship between Yield Curve and Economic Activity: An Analysis of G7 Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 62
Author(s):  
Ronald Ravinesh Kumar ◽  
Peter Josef Stauvermann ◽  
Hang Thi Thu Vu
Keyword(s):  
Term Structure ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
G7 Countries ◽  
Term Spread ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Macro Finance ◽  
The Relationship

The yield curve is an important tool to assess the economic progress of a country. In this study, we examine the strength of the relationship between term spread and economic activity, and between the components of the yield curve and economic activity in the G7 countries using monthly data on yield rates and seasonally adjusted data on the industrial production index (IPI). After matching the start and end date of the IPI with the yield rates, the data used and respective time period are as follows: Canada: March-1994 to December-2018, France: January-1999 to December-2018, Germany: October-2005 to December-2018, Italy: July-2009 to December-2018, Japan: July-1994 to January-2019, the UK: January-1994 to December-2018, and the US: February-1990 to January-2019. The results show positive associations between term spread and economic activity for Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the UK, and the US. For Italy, a negative association is noted. All three empirical factors could predict economic activity for France and Germany at the 12-month horizon only. For all other horizons, the factors’ ability to predict economic activity varies. We observe that by including additional macro-finance variables such as the current economic growth rate and the 3-month yield rate to capture the term structure level effects, the relationship between term spread and economic activity becomes stronger. This implies that the usefulness of yield curve and its decomposed components for the purpose of predicting economic activity should be cautiously modelled and employed for policy.

scholarly journals Are stock returns an inflation hedge for the UK? Evidence from a wavelet analysis using over three centuries of data

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aviral Kumar Tiwari ◽  
Juncal Cunado ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Mark E. Wohar
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Wavelet Analysis ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
The Us ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract This paper analyzes the relationship between stock returns and the inflation rates for the UK over a long time period (February 1790–February 2017) and at different frequencies, by employing a wavelet analysis. We also compare the results for the UK economy with those for the US and two developing countries (India and South Africa). Overall, our results tend to suggest that, while the relationship between stock returns and inflation rates varies across frequencies and time periods, there is no evidence of stock returns acting as an inflation hedge, irrespective of whether we look at the two developed or the two developing markets in our sample.

Archaeologists and the Dead

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Historical Context ◽  
Ethical Considerations ◽  
International Context ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Dead ◽  
The Many ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Experience Effect

This volume addresses the relationship between archaeologists and the dead, through the many dimensions of their relationships: in the field (through practical and legal issues), in the lab (through their analysis and interpretation), and in their written, visual and exhibitionary practice--disseminated to a variety of academic and public audiences. Written from a variety of perspectives, its authors address the experience, effect, ethical considerations, and cultural politics of working with mortuary archaeology. Whilst some papers reflect institutional or organizational approaches, others are more personal in their view: creating exciting and frank insights into contemporary issues that have hitherto often remained "unspoken" among the discipline. Reframing funerary archaeologists as "death-workers" of a kind, the contributors reflect on their own experience to provide both guidance and inspiration to future practitioners, arguing strongly that we have a central role to play in engaging the public with themes of mortality and commemoration, through the lens of the past. Spurred by the recent debates in the UK, papers from Scandinavia, Austria, Italy, the US, and the mid-Atlantic, frame these issues within a much wider international context that highlights the importance of cultural and historical context in which this work takes place.

scholarly journals Inflation and the steeplechase between economic activity variables: evidence for G7 countries

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaromír Baxa ◽  
Miroslav Plašil ◽  
Bořek Vašíček
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
G7 Countries ◽  
Real Activity ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Us ◽  
Activity Measures ◽  
Dynamic Model Averaging

AbstractA sharp increase in unemployment accompanied by a relatively muted response of inflation during the Great Recession and a consecutive inflationless recovery cast further doubts on the very existence of the Phillips curve as a systemic relation between real activity and inflation. With the aid of dynamic model averaging, this paper aims to highlight that this relation resurfaces if (i) inflationary pressures are captured by a richer set of real activity measures, and (ii) one accounts for the existence of a non-linear response of inflation to the driving variable. Based on data for the US and other G7 countries, our results show that the relation between economic activity and inflation is quite sturdy when one allows for more complex assessment of the former. We find that measures of economic activity describe inflation developments to a varying degree across time and space. This can blur the picture of inflation–real economy comovements in models where only a single variable of economic activity is considered. The output gap is often outperformed by unemployment-related variables. Our results also confirm a weakening of the inflation–activity relationship (i.e. a flattening of the Phillips curve) in the last decade that is robust both across activity measures and across countries.

scholarly journals MAPPING LEGAL RESEARCH

2012 ◽  
Vol 71 (3) ◽  
pp. 651-676 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathias M. Siems ◽  
Daithí Mac Síthigh
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Social Science ◽  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
General Result ◽  
Law Schools ◽  
Legal Research ◽  
The Us ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Relationship

This article aims to map the position of academic legal research, using a distinction between “law as a practical discipline”, “law as humanities” and “law as social sciences” as a conceptual framework. Having explained this framework, we address both the “macro” and “micro” level of legal research in the UK. For this purpose, we have collected information on the position of all law schools within the structure of their respective universities. We also introduce “ternary plots” as a new way of explaining individual research preferences. Our general result is that all three categories play a role within the context of UK legal academia, though the relationship between the “macro” and the “micro” level is not always straight-forward. We also provide comparisons with the US and Germany and show that in all three countries law as an academic tradition has been constantly evolving, raising questions such as whether the UK could or should move further to a social science model already dominant in the US.

Covered interest parity in cross-currency swap bases and demand for US treasuries

2020 ◽  
Vol 07 (02) ◽  
pp. 2050018
Author(s):  
Cho-Hoi Hui ◽  
Chi-Fai Lo ◽  
Chin-To Fung
Keyword(s):  
Term Structure ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Term Structure Model ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
The Us ◽  
Covered Interest Parity ◽  
Interest Parity ◽  
Us Dollar

This paper studies the dynamic relationship between demand for the US Treasury yields and cross-currency swap (CCS) bases since the 2008 global financial crisis. Using a three-factor non-Gaussian-term structure model for the US Treasuries, an estimated short-rate premium in the yield curve tends to move in tandem with and lead the euro and Japanese yen CCS bases against the US dollar. The dynamics between the premium and CCS bases are found to be co-integrated, suggesting a long-run equilibrium between them. Empirically, the premium is found to be positively related to demand for Treasuries. This is consistent with recent studies in which factors including the strength of the US dollar, the demand for dollar funding and banks’ balance-sheet structures play important roles in determining the CCS bases. These factors increase demand for US Treasuries (high-quality US dollar assets) by investors searching for safe dollar assets and banks with higher leverages due to increased demand for dollar funding. The findings in this paper contribute to explaining the widespread failure of covered interest parity in foreign exchange swap markets.

scholarly journals Rip current related drowning deaths and rescues in Australia 2004–2011

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 1069-1075 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Brighton ◽  
S. Sherker ◽  
R. Brander ◽  
M. Thompson ◽  
A. Bradstreet
Keyword(s):  
Incident Report ◽  
Anecdotal Evidence ◽  
Rip Current ◽  
Rip Currents ◽  
Actual Number ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Life Saving ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Uk

Abstract. Rip currents are a common hazard to beachgoers found on many beaches around the world, but it has proven difficult to accurately quantify the actual number of rip current related drowning deaths in many regions and countries. Consequently, reported estimates of rip current drowning can fluctuate considerably and are often based on anecdotal evidence. This study aims to quantify the incidence of rip current related drowning deaths and rescues in Australia from 2004 to 2011. A retrospective search was undertaken for fatal and non-fatal rip-related drowning incidents from Australia's National Coronial Information System (NCIS), Surf Life Saving Australia's (SLSA, 2005–2011) SurfGuard Incident Report Database (IRD), and Media Monitors for the period 1 July 2004 to 30 June 2011. In this time, rip currents were recorded as a factor in 142 fatalities of a total of 613 coastal drowning deaths (23.2%), an average of 21 per year. Rip currents were related to 44% of all beach-related drowning deaths and were involved in 57.4% of reported major rescues in Australian locations where rips occur. A comparison with international operational statistics over the same time period describes rip-related rescues as 53.7% of the total rescues in the US, 57.9% in the UK and 49.4% in New Zealand. The range 49–58% is much lower than 80–89% traditionally cited. The results reported are likely to underestimate the size of the rip current hazard, because we are limited by the completeness of data on rip-related events; however this is the most comprehensive estimate to date. Beach safety practitioners need improved data collection and standardized definitions across organisations. The collection of drowning data using consistent categories and the routine collection of rip current information will allow for more accurate global comparisons.

International relations and the International Criminal Court

2020 ◽  
pp. 561-575
Author(s):  
Njoki Wamai
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
International Criminal Court ◽  
International Criminal ◽  
International Community ◽  
Criminal Court ◽  
The West ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Relationship

The tensions generated by the International Criminal Court’s (ICC’s) indictment of four prominent Kenyans—including Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, who went on to become president and deputy president of the Kenyan Republic, respectively—in 2013 promised to reorder the relationship between Kenya and the international community. This chapter discusses the ICC’s intervention and its impact on both local Kenyan politics and Kenya’s relationship with its regional and international partners including its traditional Western partners, such as Europe, the UK, and the US. The chapter also discusses how tensions between Kenya and the West influenced Kenya’s relationship with the East including China, India, and Japan.

An Analysis of EU Growth Trends, with a Particular Focus on Germany, France, Italy and the UK

2007 ◽  
Vol 199 ◽  
pp. 82-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kieran McMorrow ◽  
Werner Roger
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Potential Growth ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Us ◽  
Good Individual ◽  
The Uk

Since the mid-1990s the growth performance of the Euro Area as a whole, despite some good individual country performances, has failed to keep pace with developments elsewhere in the EU (including the UK) and also in the US. This is especially the case for a number of the larger Euro Area economies. Despite an encouraging performance in terms of its labour input trends, there has been a significant, offsetting, deterioration in the Euro Area's underlying productivity performance. This is driven in large part, worryingly, by a marked downward shift in the growth rate of total factor productivity. Looking to the future, no significant recovery is predicted in the Euro Area's underlying economic performance over the period 2007–11. While the policy challenge is a serious one, the Euro Area as a whole can take comfort from the fact that the gains from a successful refocusing of its overall reform agenda could be considerable. For example, the progressive introduction of the five key measures linked to the Lisbon strategy (i.e. the services directive; reduction of the administrative burden; improving human capital; 3 per cent R&D target; and increases in the employment rate) could boost the Euro Area's economic and employment growth rates by more than ½ a percentage point annually for more than a decade. Such an outturn would give the Euro Area a potential growth rate of around 2½ per cent, a rate of growth which in per capita terms would be broadly comparable to that of the US over the 2007–15 time period and, on the basis of current trends and policies, slightly better than that of the UK.

Dance Your PhD: Embodied Animations, Body Experiments, and the Affective Entanglements of Life Science Research

2012 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 151-189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natasha Myers
Keyword(s):  
Scientific Inquiry ◽  
Life Science ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Body Work ◽  
Biological Phenomena ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Differential Relations ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Science Magazine

In 2008 Science Magazine and the American Academy for the Advancement of Science hosted the first ever Dance Your PhD Contest in Vienna, Austria. Calls for submission to the second, third, and fourth annual Dance Your PhD contests followed suit, attracting hundreds of entries and featuring scientists based in the US, Canada, Australia, Europe and the UK. These contests have drawn significant media attention. While much of the commentary has focused on the novelty of dancing scientists and the function of dance as an effective distraction for overworked researchers, this article takes seriously the relationship between movement and scientific inquiry and draws on ethnographic research among structural biologists to examine the ways that practitioners use their bodies to animate biological phenomena. It documents how practitioners transform their bodies into animating media and how they conduct body experiments to test their hypotheses. This ‘body-work’ helps them to figure out how molecules move and interact, and simultaneously offers a medium through which they can communicate the nuanced details of their findings among students and colleagues. This article explores the affective and kinaesthetic dexterities scientists acquire through their training, and it takes a close look at how this body-work is tacitly enabled and constrained through particular pedagogical techniques and differential relations of gender and power. This article argues that the Dance Your PhD contests, as well as other performative modalities, can expand and extend what it is possible for scientific researchers to see, say, imagine and feel.

Derivatives, Money, Finance and Imperialism: A Response to Bryan and Rafferty

2013 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 149-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tony Norfield
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Financial Trading ◽  
The Us ◽  
Commodity Money ◽  
Financial Derivative ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Derivatives Markets ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract This paper contributes to the debate on the role of financial derivatives for capitalism. It responds to Bryan and Rafferty’s defence of their analysis and their critique of my own. The paper argues that their analysis confuses what a financial derivative does, and mixes together different kinds of derivative – and non-derivative – that play very different roles. After detailing these points, the paper discusses the relationship between gold, money and derivatives, rejecting their notion that derivatives are some kind of new ‘commodity money’. An important theme absent from Bryan and Rafferty’s analysis is the relationship of financial trading and derivatives markets to parasitism in the imperialist world economy. To illustrate this, the paper notes advantages enjoyed by the major financial powers – the US and the UK – that are the main centres for the origination of derivatives and for derivatives trading.

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