scholarly journals Contribution of the Optimization of Financial Structure to the Real Economy: Evidence from China’s Financial System Using TVP-VAR Model

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (18) ◽  
pp. 2232
Author(s):  
Xiaoye Liu ◽  
Kedong Yin ◽  
Yun Cao

How the financial structure promotes the development of real economy has always been a research topic in academia. By analyzing the characteristics of China’s financial system, this paper constructs the Finance Structure Index (FSI) from the perspectives of structural efficiency, financing structure and industry structure, and interprets the trend of the FSI. Based on the quarterly data of China from 2004 to 2020, this paper constructs a time-varying parameter-vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model to study the dynamic impact of finance structure on the growth and optimization of the structure of the real economy. The empirical analysis results show that the response of the real economy has time-varying characteristics. Early on, financial structure has a promotion effect on the scale of the real economy, but the impact on the structure is not clear. In the middle, the effect of promoting the scale decreases slightly and then rebounds rapidly, while the optimization of the structure is inhibited. Later, it has a significant promoting effect and an obvious time-lag effect. Moreover, the impact of the financial structure is unstable. It is necessary to improve the efficiency and quality of the transmission of the optimization of the financial structure to the real economy.

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 449
Author(s):  
Chenlu Tao ◽  
Gang Diao ◽  
Baodong Cheng

China’s wood industry is vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic since wood raw materials and sales of products are dependent on the international market. This study seeks to explore the speed of log price recovery under different control measures, and to perhaps find a better way to respond to the pandemic. With the daily data, we utilized the time-varying parameter autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model, which can incorporate structural changes in emergencies into the model through time-varying parameters, to estimate the dynamic impact of the pandemic on log prices at different time points. We found that the impact of the pandemic on oil prices and Renminbi exchange rate is synchronized with the severity of the pandemic, and the ascending in the exchange rate would lead to an increase in log prices, while oil prices would not. Moreover, the impulse response in June converged faster than in February 2020. Thus, partial quarantine is effective. However, the pandemic’s impact on log prices is not consistent with changes of the pandemic. After the pandemic eased in June 2020, the impact of the pandemic on log prices remained increasing. This means that the COVID-19 pandemic has long-term influences on the wood industry, and the work resumption was not smooth, thus the imbalance between supply and demand should be resolved as soon as possible. Therefore, it is necessary to promote the development of the domestic wood market and realize a “dual circulation” strategy as the pandemic becomes a “new normal”.


VUZF Review ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 160-170
Author(s):  
Małgorzata Hala

The aim of the article is to present the role of the financial system in economic growth and development. The first part presents the traditional understanding of the relationship between the economic system and economic growth. The second part presents the experience of financial crises and their impact on the conversation on the mutual relations between the financial sector and the real sector. The third part shows the role of the state in the financial system. The article describes the arrangement of interrelated financial institutions, financial markets and elements of the financial system infrastructure.  It shows what part of the economic system the financial system is, and whether it enables the provision of services allowing the circulation of purchasing power throughout the economy. The article presents the important role of the financial system, the role related to the transfer of capital from entities with savings to entities that need capital for investments. It shows the financial system as a set of logically related organizational forms, legal acts, financial institutions and other elements enabling entities to establish financial relations in the real sector and the financial sector, and this system forms the basis of activity for entities using money, enabling the conclusion of various economic transactions, in which money performs various functions. The article also presents the concept of a financial crisis as a situation in which there are rapid changes in the financial market, usually associated with insufficient liquidity or insolvency of banks or financial institutions, and as a result, a decrease in production or its deepening. The article also includes issues related to the impact of public authorities (state and local authorities) on the financial system in the economy.


2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (13) ◽  
pp. 33-48
Author(s):  
Myroslava Khutorna

This paper is devoted to the consideration of the preconditions and results of the banking sector of Ukraine transforming, its influence on the sector’s productivity, stability and significance for the real economy. It’s grounded that banking sector of Ukraine has seriously weakened its potential for the economic development stimulation. On the one hand, due to the banking sector clearance from the bad and unscrupulous banks the system has become much more sensitive to the monetary instruments and its state is going to be more predictable and better controlled. But on the other hand, massive banks’ liquidations have caused the worsening of the confidence in financial system and radical increasing of the market concentration the highest degree of which is observed in the householders’ deposit market.


2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 715-746 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikiforos T. Laopodis ◽  
Andreas Papastamou

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to re-examine the relationship between a country’s aggregate stock market and general economic development for 14 emerging economies for the period from 1995 to 2014. Design/methodology/approach The methodological approach of the paper is multifold. First, the authors use cointegration analysis to determine the simple dynamics among the variables. Second, the authors utilize vector autoregression analysis to study the dynamics among the variables for the 14 countries. Third, the authors employ panel analysis to determine common variations among the variables and across countries. Findings When examining the linkage between the stock market and economic development, proxied by gross domestic product growth or with gross fixed capital formation growth, the authors did not find a meaningful relationship between them. However, when the authors included additional control variables strong, dynamic interactions between the two magnitudes surfaced. Specifically, it was found that the stock market is positively and robustly correlated with contemporaneous and future real economic development and, thus, it directly contributed to a country’s economic development either through the production of goods and services or the accumulation of real capital. Thus, it can be inferred that the stock market alone is not capable of boosting economic development in these countries unless being part of a comprehensive financial system (which includes banks) as well as investment in real capital. Research limitations/implications The policy implications are clear. Government authorities must recognize that the stock market alone is not a driver of economic development and that a sound, efficient financial system (which includes banks) must be present in order to contribute and foster economic development. Originality/value The study is original in the sense that it examines various financial and economic variables to determine the degree of (or dynamic interactions among) the stock market and the real economy for each and all emerging markets in the sample.


2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darrell Duffie

The financial crisis that began in 2007 was triggered by over-leveraged homeowners and a severe downturn in US housing markets. However, a reasonably well-supervised financial system would have been much more resilient to this and other types of severe shocks. Instead, the core of the financial system became a key channel of propagation and magnification of losses suffered in the housing market. Critical financial intermediaries failed, or were bailed out, or dramatically reduced their provision of liquidity and credit to the economy. In short, the core financial system ceased to perform its intended functions for the real economy at a reasonable level of effectiveness. As a result, the impact of the housing-market shock on the rest of the economy was much larger than necessary. In this essay, I will review the key sources of fragility in the core financial system. I discuss the weakly supervised balance sheets of the largest banks and investment banks; the run-prone designs and weak regulation of the markets for securities financing and over-the-counter derivatives; the undue reliance of regulators on “market discipline; and the interplay of too-big-to-fail and the failure of market discipline. Finally, I point to some significant positive strides that have been made since the crisis: improvements in the capitalization of the largest financial institutions, a reduction of unsafe practices and infrastructure in the markets for securities financing and derivatives, and a significantly reduced presumption that the largest financial firms will be bailed out by taxpayer money in the future. But I will also mention some remaining challenges to financial stability that could be addressed with better regulation and market infrastructure.


Author(s):  
Yakshup Chopra ◽  
Krishnamurthy Subramanian ◽  
Prasanna L Tantri

Abstract We examine the Indian bank asset quality review, which doubled the declared loan delinquency rate. Relative economic stability during the exercise and the absence of a capital backstop together make it unique. We find that the expected reduction in information asymmetry does not automatically lead to the recapitalization of banks by markets. The consequent undercapitalization leads to underinvestment and risk-shifting through zombie lending. The impact flows to the real economy through borrowers, including shadow banks, and adversely impacts growth. These findings show that bank cleanup exercises not accompanied by policies aimed at recapitalization may be insufficient even during normal times.


2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Charl Jooste ◽  
Kanyane Matlou

Purpose – This paper aims to study the interplay of fiscal policy and asset prices in a time-varying fashion. Design/methodology/approach – Using South African data since 1966, the authors are able to study the dynamic shocks of both fiscal policy and asset prices on asset prices and fiscal policy based on a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. This enables the authors to isolate specific periods in time to understand the size and sign of the shocks. Findings – The results seem to suggest that at least two regimes exist in which expansionary fiscal policy affected asset prices. From the 1970s until 1990, fiscal expansions were associated with declining house and slightly increased stock prices. The majority of the first decade of 2000 had asset prices increasing when fiscal policy expanded. On the other hand, increasing asset prices reduced deficits for the majority of the sample period, while the recent financial crises had a marked change on the way asset prices affect fiscal policy. Originality/value – This is the first attempt in the literature of fiscal policy and asset prices to use a TVP-VAR model to not only analyse the impact of fiscal policy on asset prices, but also the feedback from asset prices to fiscal policy over time.


Author(s):  
Yurii Malakhovskyi ◽  
◽  
Oleh Onofriichuk ◽  
Olena Kulishova ◽  
◽  
...  

The purpose of this publication is to study the system of economic security parameters and improve the process of using RADAR logic as an element of assessing the information security of the enterprise. The importance of the concept of economic security of enterprises (EBP) is that scientists recognize it as an important factor in national security, since the real economy is an environment of planning, organization and the best use of resources. Four main factors of EBP are considered: a) planning; b) monitoring of the external and internal environment; (b) identifying and implementing threat response measures; d) control and improvement of the system. Taking into account the turbulence of the external environment, the impact on the formation of parameters of the EBP of macro-, meso- and microeconomic level factors is investigated. It is proposed to lay the methodology based on the model of the European Quality Management Fund (EFQM) as the basis for the formation of the EBP culture. Its goal is to achieve a high level of business excellence, the direction is to promote the processes of coordination of business and security goals, coordination of efforts to achieve sustainable security indicators, the formation of market knowledge and best practices for their exchange. The prospects for practical use of the EFQM model, the components of which are: basic concepts of perfection are carefully studied; criteria; RADAR logic. The conclusion about the feasibility of implementing the RADAR system is substantiated. Full and comprehensive implementation of the system can have a positive impact on the level of short-term liquidity of the company's assets, its long-term solvency, the formation of the desired level of profitability for shareholders, and generate positive external effects for society and the environment. The complexity of ensuring the EBP is explained by the variety of manifestations and relationships of interactive elements among the internal components of enterprises and the unpredictability of the manifestation of external factors. A logical conclusion is drawn about the importance of the EBP concept, its ability to include a significant number of factors in the sphere of management influence. The direct consequences of using the EBP concept are the comprehensive provision of both its own economic security and the fundamental principles of its organization, the safety of the activities of individuals, the ability to take into account numerous factors in the formation of the actual level of regional, national and international economic security of the state. The strategic directions of further research are outlined: study, schematization, numerical formalization of system-structural relations of components and threats to economic security of enterprises, the real sector and the national economy as a whole.


2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-91
Author(s):  
Nataliia Kholiavko ◽  
Antonina Djakona

The purpose of the current study is to analyze the impact of higher education and universities on the dynamics of the digital economy. The authors hypothesized to distinguish three components (educational, research, innovation) in the digital economy development. Within this article, the results of using index and cluster analysis methods to determine the impact of the educational component on the processes of digital economy development in Ukraine at the macroeconomic and meso-economic levels are presented. The special attention is put on the educational component because the higher educational institutions concentrate intellectual capital of the country, as well as prepare future specialists for the needs of digital economy. Moreover the universities’ scientists make an impact on digital economy development by conducting research and transferring their results technological innovations, information and communicational technologies, etc.) into the real economy. During the research, main problems of digital economy development, determined by the poor quality of educational services, insufficient commercialization of university research results in the real economy, are identified. The authors conclude that solving the identified problems requires synchronization of interests and establishing a long-term partnership between universities, business, the state and the public. Importance of optimizing the state regulatory influence on economic entities in the context of digitalization of the national economy is emphasized. In particular, it is proposed to group the set of measures of state regulation into three vectors, namely: neutral-encouraging (support of positive dynamics of intensive development), incentive-providing (resource and information support of development processes) and initiative-mentoring (motivation and coordination of development processes).


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