scholarly journals Propagation of the Malware Used in APTs Based on Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (23) ◽  
pp. 3097
Author(s):  
Jose D. Hernandez Guillen ◽  
Angel Martin del Rey ◽  
Roberto Casado-Vara

Malware is becoming more and more sophisticated these days. Currently, the aim of some special specimens of malware is not to infect the largest number of devices as possible, but to reach a set of concrete devices (target devices). This type of malware is usually employed in association with advanced persistent threat (APT) campaigns. Although the great majority of scientific studies are devoted to the design of efficient algorithms to detect this kind of threat, the knowledge about its propagation is also interesting. In this article, a new stochastic computational model to simulate its propagation is proposed based on Bayesian networks. This model considers two characteristics of the devices: having efficient countermeasures, and the number of infectious devices in the neighborhood. Moreover, it takes into account four states: susceptible devices, damaged devices, infectious devices and recovered devices. In this way, the dynamic of the model is SIDR (susceptible–infectious–damaged–recovered). Contrary to what happens with global models, the proposed model takes into account both the individual characteristics of devices and the contact topology. Furthermore, the dynamics is governed by means of a (practically) unexplored technique in this field: Bayesian networks.

Author(s):  
Farnaz Seyedvakili ◽  
Mohammad Samipoorgiri

A coupled adsorption–desorption thermo-kinetic model is developed incorporating both adsorption and desorption reactions. A local pseudo-equilibrium condition at the interface of adsorbent and adsorbate bulk phases was used as isotherm equation which can even be applied for multi-pollutants scenarios. The developed model is then validated using collected experimental data of heavy metal ions (Pb, Cu, Cd, Zn, and Ni). Comparisons were made for a number of isotherm and kinetic models to examine the performance of the proposed model. The developed model revealed desirable accuracy and superiority over other models in predicting the adsorption behavior and can be used for other systems of concern. The model correlates the adsorption kinetic with an [Formula: see text] value of 0.9391 and desorption kinetic with an [Formula: see text] value of 0.9383. By application of the proposed model to any available adsorption datasets, the individual characteristics of adsorption and desorption can be determined.


Author(s):  
Huao Li ◽  
Michael Lewis ◽  
Katia Sycara

Trust is an important factor in the interaction between humans and automation that can mediate the reliance of human operators. In this work, we evaluate a computational model of human trust on swarm systems based on Sheridan (2019)’s modified Kalman estimation model using existing experiment data (Nam, Li, Li, Lewis, & Sycara, 2018). Results show that our Kalman Filter model outperforms existing state of the art alternatives including dynamic Bayesian networks and inverse reinforcement learning. This work is novel in that: 1) The Kalman estimator is the first computational model formulating the human trust evolution as a combination of both open-loop trust anticipation and closed-loop trust feedback. 2) The proposed model considers the operator’s cognitive time lag between perceiving and processing the system display. 3) The proposed model provides a personalized model for each individual and reaches a better level of fitness than state-of-the-art alternatives.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Binhua Tang ◽  
Yu Chen ◽  
Yuqi Wang ◽  
Jiafei Nie

Genome-wide omics technology boosts deep interrogation into the clinical prognosis and inherent mechanism of pancreatic oncology. Classic LASSO methods coequally treat all candidates, ignoring individual characteristics, thus frequently deteriorating performance with comparatively more predictors. Here, we propose a wavelet-based deep learning method in variable selection and prognosis formulation for PAAD with small samples and multisource information. With the genomic, epigenomic, and clinical cohort information from The Cancer Genome Atlas, the constructed five-molecule model is validated via Kaplan-Meier survival estimate, rendering significant prognosis capability on high- and low-risk subcohorts ( p value < 0.0001), together with three predictors manifesting the individual prognosis significance ( p value: 0.0012~0.024). Moreover, the performance of the prognosis model has been benchmarked against the traditional LASSO and wavelet-based methods in the 3- and 5-year prediction AUC items, respectively. Specifically, the proposed model with discrete stationary wavelet base (bior1.5) overwhelmingly outperformed traditional LASSO and wavelet-based methods (AUC: 0.787 vs. 0.782 and 0.721 for the 3-year case; AUC: 0.937 vs. 0.802 and 0.859 for the 5-year case). Thus, the proposed model provides a more accurate perspective, but with less predictor burden for clinical prognosis in the pancreatic carcinoma study.


2020 ◽  
Vol 217 ◽  
pp. 07012
Author(s):  
Igor Petrov ◽  
Tatyana Larinina ◽  
Natalia Samosudova

The study describes a simulation model for the formalization of implicit knowledge about the team. The existing algorithms and methods of work to increase the amount of useful knowledge about the human capital of the organization do not allow obtaining knowledge about the development of the team and internal relationships. The effectiveness of architectural transformations directly depends on the quality of human capital management. The proposed model formalizes relations in the organization and proposes to form one of 4 strategies for personnel development, considering the individual characteristics of each of the employees. The article introduces the concepts of types of thinking and their connection to the life cycle of an organization. The study showed that the assessment of the organization’s personnel composition reveals the hidden cause-effect relationships between the effectiveness of the team and the stages of the organization’s life cycle.


Author(s):  
M. M. Klunnikova

The work is devoted to the consideration of improving the quality of teaching students the discipline “Numerical methods” through the development of the cognitive component of computational thinking based on blended learning. The article presents a methodology for the formation of computational thinking of mathematics students, based on the visualization of algorithmic design schemes and the activation of the cognitive independence of students. The characteristic of computational thinking is given, the content and structure of computational thinking are shown. It is argued that a student with such a mind is able to manifest himself in his professional field in the best possible way. The results of the application of the technique are described. To determine the level of development of the cognitive component of computational thinking, a diagnostic model has been developed based on measuring the content, operational and motivational components. It is shown that the proposed method of developing computational thinking of students, taking into account the individual characteristics of students’ thinking, meaningfully based on the theoretical and practical aspects of studying the discipline, increases the effectiveness of learning the course “Numerical methods”. The materials of the article are of practical value for teachers of mathematical disciplines who use information and telecommunication technologies in their professional activities.


2021 ◽  
pp. 104-109
Author(s):  
Chernysh O.O.

The urgency of the researched problem is connected with the growing role of mass media in modern conditions leads to change of values and transformation of identity of the person. The active growth of the role of the media, their influence on the formation and development of personality leads to the concept of “media socialization” and immutation in the media. The aim of the study is to outline the possibilities of the process of media socialization in the context of immutation in the media. The methods of our research are: analysis of pedagogical, psychological, literature, synthesis, comparison, generalization. The article analyzes the views of domestic and foreign scientists on the problem of immutation in the media and the transformation of the information space. In the context of the mass nature of the immutation of society, the concept of “media socialization” becomes relevant, which is the basis for reducing the negative impact of the media on the individual.The author identifies the lack of a thorough study of the concept of “media socialization” in modern scientific thought. Thus, media socialization is associated with the transformation of traditional means of socialization, and is to assimilate and reproduce the social experience of mankind with the help of new media.The article analyzes the essence of the concepts “media space”, “mass media” and “immutation”. The influence of mass media on the formation and development of the modern personality is described in detail.The study concluded that it is necessary to form a media culture of the individual, to establish safe and effective interaction of young people with the modern media system, the formation of media awareness, media literacy and media competence in accordance with age and individual characteristics for successful media socialization. The role of state bodies in solving the problem of media socialization of the individual was also determined. It is determined that the process of formation of media culture in youth should take place at the level of traditional institutions of socialization of the individual.The author sees the prospect of further research in a detailed analysis and study of the potential of educational institutions as an institution and a means of counteracting the mass nature of the immutation of society.Key words: immutation, media socialization, mass media, media space, information.


Author(s):  
Olga Olegovna Eremenko ◽  
Lyubov Borisovna Aminul ◽  
Elena Vitalievna Chertina

The subject of the research is the process of making managerial decisions for innovative IT projects investing. The paper focuses on the new approach to decision making on investing innovative IT projects using expert survey in a fuzzy reasoning system. As input information, expert estimates of projects have been aggregated into six indicators having a linguistic description of the individual characteristics of the project type "high", "medium", and "low". The task of decision making investing has been formalized and the term-set of the output variable Des has been defined: to invest 50-75% of the project cost; to invest 20-50% of the project cost; to invest 10-20% of the project cost; to send the project for revision; to turn down investing project. The fuzzy product model of making investment management decisions has been developed; it adequately describes the process of investment management. The expediency of using constructed production model on a practical example is shown.


Author(s):  
Pavlo Rodionov ◽  
◽  
Anna Ploskonos ◽  
Lesya Gavrutenko ◽  
◽  
...  

The paper analyzes the factors that affect the amount of effort required to create a mobile application and its cost. It is established that the main factors of influence are the design of the application, its functionality, the type of mobile platform, the availability and level of testing and support, as well as the individual characteristics of the developer. Based on the analysis of information sources, the main methods and approaches to forecasting the cost of software products are identified, which include the COCOMO model, Price-to-win method, expert evaluation, algorithmic methods and the method of analogies. It is proposed to consider the method of analogies as a tool that allows you to make predictions about the cost of resources required for the successful implementation of IT projects based on the experience of similar projects. It is proved that the advantages of this method are the simplicity of its implementation and the clarity of the results obtained, which follows from the practical orientation of this tool. Among the limitations of the method of analogy is the mandatory need for reliable data relating to similar projects, as well as the difficulty of taking into account unspecified indicators. Taking into account the mentioned limitations of the method of analogies and on the basis of the analysis of scientific sources the possible directions of its optimization are determined. Thus, among the ways to improve the effectiveness of this method are those aimed at optimizing the project selection process, the data for which are used as a basis for forecasting. Attempts to improve the method of analogies by including parameters that were previously ignored by this technique seem promising. This in turn can lead to an expansion of the scope of the method of analogies and increase the accuracy of forecasts. As prospects for further research, the need to continue research in the field of optimization of the method of analogies with the subsequent practical verification of theoretical positions on the data of real projects.


2020 ◽  
pp. 140-146
Author(s):  
S. I. Chelombitko ◽  
V. V. Piven

During the development of oil and gas fields and transportation of hydrocarbons, the ecology of regions is subject to various negative impacts. The most severe consequences for the environment are caused by accidental spills of oil or petroleum products, which occur due to through damage to pipelines. Polluted territories are subject to mandatory reclamation in accordance with government regulations and industry regulations. However, despite the measures taken by the administrations of the northern regions to increase the rate of reclamation of damaged territories in recent years, there has been a trend of growth of areas contaminated with hydrocarbons.Various remediation technologies that have been tested in warm and temperate climates are not very effective in regions with permafrost. Pollution of the daytime surface with oil or petroleum products leads to an increase in the absorption of the sun's radiant energy, the growth of the seasonal thaw layer and the development of destructive processes for the territory. To achieve a positive effect as a result of rehabilitation measures, it is necessary to take into account the individual characteristics of the territory and the extent of its pollution.


2017 ◽  
Vol 27 ◽  
pp. 5-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Pertsinakis

Research on visual feedback has not produced consistent results to show how visual feedback or the lack, thereof, influences individual handwriting characteristics. A two-pronged approach was designed to investigate the degree of this influence. For this purpose, samples of signatures as well as cursive and block text, written with and without visual feedback, were collected from 40 volunteers and imported into a PC via a pen tablet, using an electronic inking pen. The data was analyzed in a handwriting movement analysis software module specially designed for this research that was added to the software MovAlyzeR by Neuroscript LLC. Two forensic document examiners (FDEs) independently analyzed samples from the two groups (samples executed with normal visual feedback versus the group of samples executed without visual feedback). They found no fundamental differences between these two groups. Their analyses also demonstrated that a large number of similarities existed in the general design of the allographs (alternative forms of a letter or other grapheme) and in the pictorial aspects, regardless of the complexity of the samples. In the cursive and block handwriting, four main qualitative characteristics were linked to the absence of visual feedback: change of overall size, non-uniformity of left margins, change of baseline alignment, and inclusion of extra trajectories. The statistical analysis verified the above findings. The comparative analysis also suggests that gender, educational level (above high school) and handedness create an insignificant influence on the individual characteristics of writing produced with and without visual feedback. The only notable exception is the relationship between signature duration and educational level. The volunteers with a medium education level showed a significant increase in duration while signing their names without visual feedback in comparison to those with higher education levels. The combination of the above findings suggests that handwriting is not fundamentally influenced by visual feedback.  Purchase Article - $10


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