scholarly journals Importance of Spatial Autocorrelation in Machine Learning Modeling of Polymetallic Nodules, Model Uncertainty and Transferability at Local Scale

Minerals ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1172
Author(s):  
Iason-Zois Gazis ◽  
Jens Greinert
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Spatial Autocorrelation ◽  
Spatial Modeling ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Feature Space ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Lower Number ◽  
Initial Training ◽  
Model Transferability ◽  
Polymetallic Nodules

Machine learning spatial modeling is used for mapping the distribution of deep-sea polymetallic nodules (PMN). However, the presence and influence of spatial autocorrelation (SAC) have not been extensively studied. SAC can provide information regarding the variable selection before modeling, and it results in erroneous validation performance when ignored. ML models are also problematic when applied in areas far away from the initial training locations, especially if the (new) area to be predicted covers another feature space. Here, we study the spatial distribution of PMN in a geomorphologically heterogeneous area of the Peru Basin, where SAC of PMN exists. The local Moran’s I analysis showed that there are areas with a significantly higher or lower number of PMN, associated with different backscatter values, aspect orientation, and seafloor geomorphological characteristics. A quantile regression forests (QRF) model is used using three cross-validation (CV) techniques (random-, spatial-, and cluster-blocking). We used the recently proposed “Area of Applicability” method to quantify the geographical areas where feature space extrapolation occurs. The results show that QRF predicts well in morphologically similar areas, with spatial block cross-validation being the least unbiased method. Conversely, random-CV overestimates the prediction performance. Under new conditions, the model transferability is reduced even on local scales, highlighting the need for spatial model-based dissimilarity analysis and transferability assessment in new areas.

Machine Learning Methods for "Small-n, Large-p" Problems: Understanding the Complex Drivers of Modern-Day Slavery

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosa Lavelle-Hill ◽  
Anjali Mazumder ◽  
James Goulding ◽  
Gavin Smith ◽  
Todd Landman
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Feature Space ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Effective Interventions ◽  
Modern Slavery ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Small N ◽  
Modern Day Slavery ◽  
Linear Machine

Abstract 40 million people are estimated to be in some form of modern slavery across the globe. Understanding the factors that make any particular individual or geographical region vulnerable to such abuse is essential for the development of effective interventions and policy. Efforts to isolate and assess the importance of individual drivers statistically are impeded by two key challenges: data scarcity and high dimensionality. The hidden nature of modern slavery restricts available datapoints; and the large number of candidate variables that are potentially predictive of slavery inflates the feature space exponentially. The result is a highly problematic "small-n, large-p' setting, where overfitting and multi-collinearity can render more traditional statistical approaches inapplicable. Recent advances in non-parametric computational methods, however, offer scope to overcome such challenges. We present an approach that combines non-linear machine learning models and strict cross-validation methods with novel variable importance techniques, emphasising the importance of stability of model explanations via Rashomon-set analysis. This approach is used to model the prevalence of slavery in 48 countries, with results bringing to light the importance predictive factors - such as a country's capacity to protect the physical security of women, which has previously been under-emphasized in the literature. Out-of-sample estimates of slavery prevalence are then made for countries where no survey data currently exists.

Prediction of K562 Cells Functional Inhibitors Based on Machine Learning Approaches

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (40) ◽  
pp. 4296-4302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuan Zhang ◽  
Zhenyan Han ◽  
Qian Gao ◽  
Xiaoyi Bai ◽  
Chi Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Inclusion Bodies ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Independent Set ◽  
K562 Cells ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
Validation Test ◽  
Excess Number ◽  
Fold Cross Validation

Background: β thalassemia is a common monogenic genetic disease that is very harmful to human health. The disease arises is due to the deletion of or defects in β-globin, which reduces synthesis of the β-globin chain, resulting in a relatively excess number of α-chains. The formation of inclusion bodies deposited on the cell membrane causes a decrease in the ability of red blood cells to deform and a group of hereditary haemolytic diseases caused by massive destruction in the spleen. Methods: In this work, machine learning algorithms were employed to build a prediction model for inhibitors against K562 based on 117 inhibitors and 190 non-inhibitors. Results: The overall accuracy (ACC) of a 10-fold cross-validation test and an independent set test using Adaboost were 83.1% and 78.0%, respectively, surpassing Bayes Net, Random Forest, Random Tree, C4.5, SVM, KNN and Bagging. Conclusion: This study indicated that Adaboost could be applied to build a learning model in the prediction of inhibitors against K526 cells.

scholarly journals An Integrated Approach of Mechanistic-Modeling and Machine-Learning for Thickness Optimization of Frozen Microwaveable Foods

Foods ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 763
Author(s):  
Ran Yang ◽  
Zhenbo Wang ◽  
Jiajia Chen
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Food Product ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Mechanistic Modeling ◽  
Bayesian Optimization ◽  
Initial Training ◽  
Thickness Optimization ◽  
Heating Uniformity ◽  
Food Design

Mechanistic-modeling has been a useful tool to help food scientists in understanding complicated microwave-food interactions, but it cannot be directly used by the food developers for food design due to its resource-intensive characteristic. This study developed and validated an integrated approach that coupled mechanistic-modeling and machine-learning to achieve efficient food product design (thickness optimization) with better heating uniformity. The mechanistic-modeling that incorporated electromagnetics and heat transfer was previously developed and validated extensively and was used directly in this study. A Bayesian optimization machine-learning algorithm was developed and integrated with the mechanistic-modeling. The integrated approach was validated by comparing the optimization performance with a parametric sweep approach, which is solely based on mechanistic-modeling. The results showed that the integrated approach had the capability and robustness to optimize the thickness of different-shape products using different initial training datasets with higher efficiency (45.9% to 62.1% improvement) than the parametric sweep approach. Three rectangular-shape trays with one optimized thickness (1.56 cm) and two non-optimized thicknesses (1.20 and 2.00 cm) were 3-D printed and used in microwave heating experiments, which confirmed the feasibility of the integrated approach in thickness optimization. The integrated approach can be further developed and extended as a platform to efficiently design complicated microwavable foods with multiple-parameter optimization.

scholarly journals A machine-learning-based alloy design platform that enables both forward and inverse predictions for thermo-mechanically controlled processed (TMCP) steel alloys

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin-Woong Lee ◽  
Chaewon Park ◽  
Byung Do Lee ◽  
Joonseo Park ◽  
Nam Hoon Goo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Feature Space ◽  
Research Strategy ◽  
Nsga Ii ◽  
Steel Alloys ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Data Driven Approach ◽  
Processing Information ◽  
Set Up ◽  
World Industry

AbstractPredicting mechanical properties such as yield strength (YS) and ultimate tensile strength (UTS) is an intricate undertaking in practice, notwithstanding a plethora of well-established theoretical and empirical models. A data-driven approach should be a fundamental exercise when making YS/UTS predictions. For this study, we collected 16 descriptors (attributes) that implicate the compositional and processing information and the corresponding YS/UTS values for 5473 thermo-mechanically controlled processed (TMCP) steel alloys. We set up an integrated machine-learning (ML) platform consisting of 16 ML algorithms to predict the YS/UTS based on the descriptors. The integrated ML platform involved regularization-based linear regression algorithms, ensemble ML algorithms, and some non-linear ML algorithms. Despite the dirty nature of most real-world industry data, we obtained acceptable holdout dataset test results such as R2 > 0.6 and MSE < 0.01 for seven non-linear ML algorithms. The seven fully trained non-linear ML models were used for the ensuing ‘inverse design (prediction)’ based on an elitist-reinforced, non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II). The NSGA-II enabled us to predict solutions that exhibit desirable YS/UTS values for each ML algorithm. In addition, the NSGA-II-driven solutions in the 16-dimensional input feature space were visualized using holographic research strategy (HRS) in order to systematically compare and analyze the inverse-predicted solutions for each ML algorithm.

scholarly journals Development of Machine Learning Models to Predict Compressed Sward Height in Walloon Pastures Based on Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2 and Meteorological Data Using Multiple Data Transformations

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 408
Author(s):  
Charles Nickmilder ◽  
Anthony Tedde ◽  
Isabelle Dufrasne ◽  
Françoise Lessire ◽  
Bernard Tychon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Support System ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Data Transformations ◽  
Independent Validation ◽  
Sward Height ◽  
Machine Learning Models ◽  
Sentinel 2

Accurate information about the available standing biomass on pastures is critical for the adequate management of grazing and its promotion to farmers. In this paper, machine learning models are developed to predict available biomass expressed as compressed sward height (CSH) from readily accessible meteorological, optical (Sentinel-2) and radar satellite data (Sentinel-1). This study assumed that combining heterogeneous data sources, data transformations and machine learning methods would improve the robustness and the accuracy of the developed models. A total of 72,795 records of CSH with a spatial positioning, collected in 2018 and 2019, were used and aggregated according to a pixel-like pattern. The resulting dataset was split into a training one with 11,625 pixellated records and an independent validation one with 4952 pixellated records. The models were trained with a 19-fold cross-validation. A wide range of performances was observed (with mean root mean square error (RMSE) of cross-validation ranging from 22.84 mm of CSH to infinite-like values), and the four best-performing models were a cubist, a glmnet, a neural network and a random forest. These models had an RMSE of independent validation lower than 20 mm of CSH at the pixel-level. To simulate the behavior of the model in a decision support system, performances at the paddock level were also studied. These were computed according to two scenarios: either the predictions were made at a sub-parcel level and then aggregated, or the data were aggregated at the parcel level and the predictions were made for these aggregated data. The results obtained in this study were more accurate than those found in the literature concerning pasture budgeting and grassland biomass evaluation. The training of the 124 models resulting from the described framework was part of the realization of a decision support system to help farmers in their daily decision making.

Machine Learning for the Prediction of Amyloid Positivity in Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Sung Hoon Kang ◽  
Bo Kyoung Cheon ◽  
Ji-Sun Kim ◽  
Hyemin Jang ◽  
Hee Jin Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Cognitive Impairment ◽  
Mild Cognitive Impairment ◽  
Apolipoprotein E ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Good Accuracy ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment ◽  
Temporal Region ◽  
Apolipoprotein E Genotype

Background: Amyloid (Aβ) evaluation in amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) patients is important for predicting conversion to Alzheimer’s disease. However, Aβ evaluation through amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) is limited due to high cost and safety issues. Objective: We therefore aimed to develop and validate prediction models of Aβ positivity for aMCI using optimal interpretable machine learning (ML) approaches utilizing multimodal markers. Methods: We recruited 529 aMCI patients from multiple centers who underwent Aβ PET. We trained ML algorithms using a training cohort (324 aMCI from Samsung medical center) with two-phase modelling: model 1 included age, gender, education, diabetes, hypertension, apolipoprotein E genotype, and neuropsychological test scores; model 2 included the same variables as model 1 with additional MRI features. We used four-fold cross-validation during the modelling and evaluated the models on an external validation cohort (187 aMCI from the other centers). Results: Model 1 showed good accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] 0.837) in cross-validation, and fair accuracy (AUROC 0.765) in external validation. Model 2 led to improvement in the prediction performance with good accuracy (AUROC 0.892) in cross validation compared to model 1. Apolipoprotein E genotype, delayed recall task scores, and interaction between cortical thickness in the temporal region and hippocampal volume were the most important predictors of Aβ positivity. Conclusion: Our results suggest that ML models are effective in predicting Aβ positivity at the individual level and could help the biomarker-guided diagnosis of prodromal AD.

scholarly journals Breath can discriminate tuberculosis from other lower respiratory illness in children

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carly A. Bobak ◽  
Lili Kang ◽  
Lesley Workman ◽  
Lindy Bateman ◽  
Mohammad S. Khan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Lower Respiratory Tract ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Pediatric Patients ◽  
Respiratory Illness ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Machine Learning Model ◽  
Childhood Tb ◽  
Pediatric Tb ◽  
Pediatric Tuberculosis

AbstractPediatric tuberculosis (TB) remains a global health crisis. Despite progress, pediatric patients remain difficult to diagnose, with approximately half of all childhood TB patients lacking bacterial confirmation. In this pilot study (n = 31), we identify a 4-compound breathprint and subsequent machine learning model that accurately classifies children with confirmed TB (n = 10) from children with another lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) (n = 10) with a sensitivity of 80% and specificity of 100% observed across cross validation folds. Importantly, we demonstrate that the breathprint identified an additional nine of eleven patients who had unconfirmed clinical TB and whose symptoms improved while treated for TB. While more work is necessary to validate the utility of using patient breath to diagnose pediatric TB, it shows promise as a triage instrument or paired as part of an aggregate diagnostic scheme.

Mapping Arctic clam abundance using multiple datasets, models, and a spatially explicit accuracy assessment

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (7) ◽  
pp. 2349-2361
Author(s):  
Benjamin Misiuk ◽  
Trevor Bell ◽  
Alec Aitken ◽  
Craig J Brown ◽  
Evan N Edinger
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Autocorrelation ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Accuracy Assessment ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Seabed Topography ◽  
Leave One Out

Abstract Species distribution models are commonly used in the marine environment as management tools. The high cost of collecting marine data for modelling makes them finite, especially in remote locations. Underwater image datasets from multiple surveys were leveraged to model the presence–absence and abundance of Arctic soft-shell clam (Mya spp.) to support the management of a local small-scale fishery in Qikiqtarjuaq, Nunavut, Canada. These models were combined to predict Mya abundance, conditional on presence throughout the study area. Results suggested that water depth was the primary environmental factor limiting Mya habitat suitability, yet seabed topography and substrate characteristics influence their abundance within suitable habitat. Ten-fold cross-validation and spatial leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO CV) were used to assess the accuracy of combined predictions and to test whether this was inflated by the spatial autocorrelation of transect sample data. Results demonstrated that four different measures of predictive accuracy were substantially inflated due to spatial autocorrelation, and the spatial LOO CV results were therefore adopted as the best estimates of performance.

scholarly journals A Machine Learning Approach to Reveal the NeuroPhenotypes of Autisms

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (07) ◽  
pp. 1850058 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan M. Górriz ◽  
Javier Ramírez ◽  
F. Segovia ◽  
Francisco J. Martínez ◽  
Meng-Chuan Lai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Brain Structure ◽  
Feature Space ◽  
Classification Problem ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Biological Sex ◽  
Machine Learning Approach ◽  
Learning Machine ◽  
Small Sample Sizes ◽  
Low Dimensional

Although much research has been undertaken, the spatial patterns, developmental course, and sexual dimorphism of brain structure associated with autism remains enigmatic. One of the difficulties in investigating differences between the sexes in autism is the small sample sizes of available imaging datasets with mixed sex. Thus, the majority of the investigations have involved male samples, with females somewhat overlooked. This paper deploys machine learning on partial least squares feature extraction to reveal differences in regional brain structure between individuals with autism and typically developing participants. A four-class classification problem (sex and condition) is specified, with theoretical restrictions based on the evaluation of a novel upper bound in the resubstitution estimate. These conditions were imposed on the classifier complexity and feature space dimension to assure generalizable results from the training set to test samples. Accuracies above [Formula: see text] on gray and white matter tissues estimated from voxel-based morphometry (VBM) features are obtained in a sample of equal-sized high-functioning male and female adults with and without autism ([Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]/group). The proposed learning machine revealed how autism is modulated by biological sex using a low-dimensional feature space extracted from VBM. In addition, a spatial overlap analysis on reference maps partially corroborated predictions of the “extreme male brain” theory of autism, in sexual dimorphic areas.

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