Alterations in Canadian Hydropower Production Potential Due to Continuation of Historical Trends in Climate Variables

The vitality, timing, and magnitude of hydropower production is driven by streamflow, which is determined by climate variables, in particular precipitation and temperature. Accordingly, changes in climate characteristics can cause alterations in hydropower production potential. This delineates a critical energy security concern, especially in places such as Canada, where recent changes in climate are substantial and hydropower production is important for both domestic use and exportation. Current Canadian assessments, however, are limited as they mainly focus on a small number of power plants across the country. In addition, they implement scenario-led top-down impact assessments that are subject to large uncertainties in climate, hydrological, and energy models. To avoid these limitations, we propose a bottom-up impact assessment based on the historical information on climatic trends and causal links between climate variables and hydropower production across political jurisdictions. Using this framework, we estimate expected monthly gain/loss in regional hydropower production potential under the continuation of historical climate trends. Our findings show that Canada’s production potential is expected to increase, although the net gain/loss is subject to significant variations across different regions. Our results suggest increasing potential in Yukon, Ontario, and Quebec but decreasing production in the North Western Territories and Nunavut, British Columbia, and Alberta.

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Wind Speed Modeling by Nested ARIMA Processes

Energies ◽

10.3390/en12010069 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 69 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

So-Kumneth Sim ◽

Philipp Maass ◽

Pedro Lind

Keyword(s):

Wind Speed ◽

Power Plants ◽

Time Windows ◽

Basic Research ◽

Random Variable ◽

The North ◽

Wind Power Plants ◽

The North Sea ◽

Speed Fluctuations ◽

Large Wind

Wind speed modelling is of increasing interest, both for basic research and for applications, as, e.g., for wind turbine development and strategies to construct large wind power plants. Generally, such modelling is hampered by the non-stationary features of wind speed data that, to a large extent, reflect the turbulent dynamics in the atmosphere. We study how these features can be captured by nested ARIMA models. In this approach, wind speed fluctuations in given time windows are modelled by one stochastic process, and the parameter variation between successive windows by another one. For deriving the wind speed model, we use 20 months of data collected at the FINO1 platform at the North Sea and use a variable transformation that best maps the wind speed onto a Gaussian random variable. We find that wind speed increments can be well reproduced for up to four standard deviations. The distributions of extreme variations, however, strongly deviate from the model predictions.

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House I 10,8

The Insula of the Menander at Pompeii ◽

10.1093/oso/9780199263127.003.0033 ◽

2007 ◽

Author(s):

Penelope M. Allison

Keyword(s):

Ground Level ◽

The West ◽

Comparable Group ◽

North West ◽

North East ◽

The North ◽

South Wall ◽

Domestic Use ◽

Small Shell ◽

Lead Weights

The surviving plaster on the walls of this entranceway consisted of a high pink socle, delineated in red, with a white zone above. Ling observed that this overlay an earlier First-Style decoration on the east wall and that it had been patched in antiquity. Breaches are found in both the east and west walls. Outside the entrance, to either side, is a masonry bench (east bench: l.: 2.1 m, d.: 380 mm; west bench: l.: 2.4 m, d.: 460 mm), both much damaged. Finds within the entranceway consisted of bronze and iron studs, undoubtedly from the house door. Remains of plastered decoration survive on the south wall. Elia recorded a yellow dado, surmounted by a red band, with white plaster above. There is a breach in the north-west corner through to Unit no. 9, above a blocked doorway. At the centre of this front hall is a tufa impluvium (2.4 m × 2.1 m). In the north-west corner, 1 m above the pavement, were found: a small bronze ring; a bronze stud, similar to those in the entranceway and probably also from the front door; a fragment of a stone mortar or hand-mill; some glass beads; a small shell; and two bronze quadrantes, one of Nero dated ad 64. The fragmentary or loseable nature of these items suggests that they were disturbed from the ground level. Other small loseable items were found in the north-east corner: a small glass bottle, probably a toilet item; and possibly five more coins. One metre from the west side of the impluvium were found: another part of a hand-mill; two large stone weights; at least fifty-three lead weights, probably from a loom; and two other spherical stones, possibly also weights. The large number of lead weights is comparable with the quantity found under the stairway in room i of the Casa del Principe di Napoli. Another comparable group of forty loom weights was found together in a pit at Zugmantel. As Jongman noted, this amount would be equivalent to that required for one or perhaps two warp-weighted looms. It is therefore commensurate with the existence of such a loom, or looms, in this area, or of replacement loom weights, for domestic use.

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Performance and Economic Assessment of a Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Power Plant with a Storage System: A Comparison between the North and the South of Italy

Energies ◽

10.3390/en12122356 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 12 (12) ◽

pp. 2356 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Ferdinando Chiacchio ◽

Fabio Famoso ◽

Diego D’Urso ◽

Luca Cedola

Keyword(s):

Power Plant ◽

Power Plants ◽

Low Voltage ◽

Storage System ◽

Economic Feasibility ◽

The South ◽

Model Based ◽

The North ◽

Photovoltaic Power ◽

Historical Series

Grid-connected low voltage photovoltaic power plants cover most of the power capacity installed in Italy. They offer an important contribution to the power demand of the utilities connected but, due to the nature of the solar resource, the night-time consumption can be satisfied only withdrawing the energy by the national grid, at the price of the energy distributor. Thanks to the improvement of storage technologies, the installation of a system of battery looks like a promising solution by giving the possibility to increase auto-consumption dramatically. In this paper, a model-based approach to analyze and discuss the performance and the economic feasibility of grid-connected domestic photovoltaic power plants with a storage system is presented. Using as input to the model the historical series (2008–2017) of the main ambient variables, the proposed model, based on Stochastic Hybrid Fault Tree Automaton, allowed us to simulate and compare two alternative technical solutions characterized by different environmental conditions, in the north and in the south of Italy. The performances of these systems were compared and an economic analysis, addressing the convenience of the storage systems was carried out, considering the characteristic useful-life time, 20 years, of a photovoltaic power plant. To this end the Net Present Value and the payback time were evaluated, considering the main characteristics of the Italian market scenario.

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Impacts of some meteorological parameters on the SO2 concentrations in the city of Obrenovac, Serbia

Journal of the Serbian Chemical Society ◽

10.2298/jsc081026030n ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 75 (5) ◽

pp. 703-715 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Snezana Nenadovic ◽

Ljiljana Matovic ◽

Misko Milanovic ◽

Sava Janicevic ◽

Jasmina Grbovic-Novakovic ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sulfur Dioxide ◽

Power Plants ◽

Meteorological Parameters ◽

North West ◽

Wind Speeds ◽

The North ◽

West Part ◽

Measuring Site ◽

The Impact ◽

The City

In this paper, the impacts of some meteorological parameters on the SO2 concentrations in the City of Obrenovac are presented. The City of Obrenovac is located in the north-west part of Serbia on the banks of the River Sava. The observed source emission, the power plants TENT A and TENT B are situated on the bank of the Sava River in the vicinity of Obrenovac. During the period from January to November 2006, the concentrations of sulfur dioxide in the air at 4 monitoring sites in Obrenovac were measured. It was noticed that the maximal measured daily concentrations of sulfur dioxide ranged from 1 ?g/m3 (16th November, 2006) to 98 ?g/m3 (29th January 2006) and lie under the maximal allowed concentration value according to the Serbian Law on Environmental Protection. The measured sulfur dioxide concentrations mostly showed characteristics usual for a daily acidification sulfur dioxide cycle, excluding the specificities influenced by the measuring site itself. Sulfur dioxide transport was recorded at increased wind speeds, primarily from the southeast direction. Based on the impact of meteorological parameters on the sulfur dioxide concentration, a validation of the monitoring sites was also performed from the aspect of their representivity.

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Is Your Power Plant Headed for a HILP? How to Avoid, Detect or Mitigate High Impact–Low Probability (HILP) Events

ASME 2008 Power Conference ◽

10.1115/power2008-60069 ◽

2008 ◽

Author(s):

Robert R. Richwine ◽

G. Scott Stallard ◽

G. Michael Curley

Keyword(s):

Power Plant ◽

North America ◽

North American ◽

Power Plants ◽

High Impact ◽

Root Cause ◽

The Past ◽

The North ◽

Sufficient Detail ◽

Low Probability

In recent years some power companies have instituted programs aimed at reducing or eliminating their power plants’ unreliability caused by abnormal events that occur infrequently but result in extended unplanned outages when they do occur, i.e. High Impact–Low Probability events (HILPs). HILPs include catastrophic events such as turbine water induction, boiler explosions, generator winding failures, etc. Many of these successful programs have relied on the detailed reliability data contained in the North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s (NERC) Generating Availability Data System (GADS) that contains data collected over the past 25 years from 5000+ generating units in North America. Using this data, these companies have been able to 1) benchmark their fleet’s unreliability due to HILPs against their North American peers, 2) prioritize their peer group’s susceptibility to various HILP modes and 3) use root cause data contained within the NERC-GADS data base to help identify and evaluate ways to proactively prevent, detect and/or mitigate the consequences of HILP events. This paper will describe the methods used in these successful programs in sufficient detail to enable others to adopt the techniques for application at their own generating plants.

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West Asian climate during the last millennium according to the EC-Earth model

Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences ◽

10.1139/cjes-2018-0216 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 57 (1) ◽

pp. 102-113

Author(s):

M.P. Karami ◽

M. Mohtadi ◽

Q. Zhang ◽

T. Koenigk

Keyword(s):

Decadal Variability ◽

Ice Age ◽

Earth Model ◽

Precipitation Trend ◽

Last Millennium ◽

Climate Trends ◽

The Caspian Sea ◽

Internal Climate Variability ◽

The North ◽

The Impact

West Asia is one of the most vulnerable regions to ongoing climate change but has been poorly investigated. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas, natural forcing, and internal climate variability on temperature and rainfall in this region. In this study, we focus on the climate of West Asia during the last millennium by using a transient simulation of the global earth system model EC-Earth (v3.1). The model performs well in terms of present-day temperature and precipitation patterns and their regional averages. Time series of yearly-mean precipitation and temperature of West Asia show that precipitation increases until the start of the Little Ice Age (1450–1850 CE) and subsequently decreases, whereas temperature shows a cooling trend during the entire last millennium. We first discuss the model output data for climate trends during two periods, 850–1450 CE and 1450–1850 CE. In 850–1450 CE, the largest wetting trend occurred in the eastern regions to the north of the Persian Gulf because of a westward shift of the Indian precipitation core and more moisture transport from the Arabian Sea. The precipitation trend in 1450–1850 CE had a different pattern with a drying trend in the west of the Caspian Sea and overall getting less wet compared with the first period. Temperature showed cooling trends for both periods with the largest values happening in the northern regions. The North Atlantic sea surface temperature cooling and the subsequent change in atmospheric circulation played a role in the wetting and cooling of West Asia. In the second part of the study, we remove the trends and discuss the multi-decadal variability of West Asian climate. It was found that Atlantic multi-decadal and Pacific decadal oscillations strongly contributed to West Asian temperature variability. For West Asian precipitation variability, we found remote connections with the Nordic seas and tropical Pacific Ocean.

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Evaluation of technical and economic effect from setup of distributed photovoltaic generation on the Right-of-Way land of the North Caucasus Railway

E3S Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/e3sconf/201911405004 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 114 ◽

pp. 05004 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Ibragim Asanov ◽

Elizaveta Sharaborova ◽

Egor Loktionov

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Power Plants ◽

Economic Effect ◽

Electricity Consumption ◽

Solar Panels ◽

North Caucasus ◽

Long Distance ◽

Right Of Way ◽

The North ◽

The Right

In this work, we consider the concept of using a distributed solar power plant, setup on the right-of-way of the railroad. The proposed solution allows to shave peaks of electricity consumption without additional land alienation, using the existing power grids. The concept includes the setup of solar panels on the alienated land of the railroad. PV can be placed directly on the cross ties using damping elements, on the embankment slopes and on the right-of-way land. This solution allows minimizing the cost of solar panels installation along the railway tracks. The North Caucasus railway was considered to assess the gross, technical and economic potential of the proposed solution. The operational length of the railroad there is 6,472 km. The railway consists of large non-electrified sections, segments powered with 25 kV AC and 3 kV DC. The railroad is used not only for cargo transport, but also for long-distance and suburban passenger traffic. We have considered different scenarios for right-of-way land use rate and have shown that possible project costs could be reduced by ca. 25% by double land use only. This does not include shared electric grid infrastructure use that also should benefit considerably, but is hard to be estimated. While the potential nameplate capacity of such power plants within one region is 10s-100s of MW.

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Coastal climatology of the North-Western Mediterranean area for long-term and short-term risk assessment.

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-19382 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Carlo Brandini ◽

Stefano Taddei ◽

Valentina Vannucchi ◽

Michele Bendoni ◽

Bartolomeo Doronzo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

High Resolution ◽

Mediterranean Area ◽

Western Mediterranean ◽

Climate Trends ◽

Short Term ◽

The North ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

North Western

In this work we present the results obtained through a dynamic downscaling of the ERA5 reanalysis dataset (hindcast) of ECMWF, using high-resolution meteorological and wave models defined on unstructured computation grids along the Mediterranean coasts, with a particular focus on the North-Western Mediterranean area. Downscaling of the ERA5 meteorological data is obtained through the BOLAM and MOLOCH models (up to a resolution of 2.5 km) which force an unstructured WW3 model with a resolution of up to 500 m along the coast. Models were validated through available meteorological stations, wave buoy data and X-band wave radars, the latter for the purposes of wave spectra validation.On the one hand, this allowed, by extracting the time series of some attack parameters of the waves along the coast, and according to the type of coast (rocky coasts, sandy coasts, coastal structures etc.), to compute the return periods and to characterize the impact of any individual storm.&#160;On the other hand, it is possible to highlight some trends observed in the last 30 years, during which recent research is showing an increasing evidence &#160;of some changes in global circulation at regional to local scales. These changes also include effects of wind rotation, wave regimes, storm surges, wave-induced coastal currents and coastal morphodynamics. For example, in the North-Western Mediterranean extreme events belonging to cyclonic weather-types circulation with stronger S-SE components (like the storm of October 28-30th 2018 and many others), rather than events associated with perturbations of Atlantic origin and zonal circulation, are becoming more frequent. These long-term wind/wave climate trends can have consequences not only in the assessment of long-term risk due to main morphodynamic variations (ie. coastal erosion), but also in the short-term risk assessment.This work was funded by the EU MAREGOT project (2017-2020) and ECMWF Special Project spitbran &#160;&#8220;Evaluation of coastal climate trends in the Mediterranean area by means of high-resolution and multi-model downscaling of ERA5 reanalysis&#8221; (2018-2020).

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