scholarly journals Dynamical Downscaling of Temperature Variations over the Canadian Prairie Provinces under Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 4350
Author(s):  
Xiong Zhou ◽  
Guohe Huang ◽  
Yongping Li ◽  
Qianguo Lin ◽  
Denghua Yan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Canadian Prairie ◽  
Mountain Area ◽  
Temperature Variations ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Prairie Provinces

In this study, variations of daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperature (expressed as Tmean, Tmax, and Tmin) over the Canadian Prairie Provinces were dynamically downscaled through regional climate simulations. How the regional climate would increase in response to global warming was subsequently revealed. Specifically, the Regional Climatic Model (RegCM) was undertaken to downscale the boundary conditions of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model Version 2M (GFDL-ESM2M) over the Prairie Provinces. Daily temperatures (i.e., Tmean, Tmax, and Tmin) were subsequently extracted from the historical and future climate simulations. Temperature variations in the two future periods (i.e., 2036 to 2065 and 2065 to 2095) are then investigated relative to the baseline period (i.e., 1985 to 2004). The spatial distributions of temperatures were analyzed to reveal the regional impacts of global warming on the provinces. The results indicated that the projected changes in the annual averages of daily temperatures would be amplified from the southwest in the Rocky Mountain area to the northeast in the prairie region. It was also suggested that the projected temperature averages would be significantly intensified under RCP8.5. The projected temperature variations could provide scientific bases for adaptation and mitigation initiatives on multiple sectors, such as agriculture and economic sectors over the Canadian Prairies.

scholarly journals Dynamically Downscaled Climate Simulations of the Indian Monsoon in the Instrumental Era: Physics Parameterization Impacts and Precipitation Extremes

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (4) ◽  
pp. 831-852 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiling Huo ◽  
W. Richard Peltier
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
South Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Land Surface Scheme ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Surface Scheme

AbstractThe complex orography of South Asia, including both the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau, renders the regional climate complex. How this climate, especially the monsoon circulations, will respond to the global warming process is important given the large population of the region. In a first step toward a contribution to the understanding of the expected impacts, a series of dynamically downscaled instrumental-era climate simulations for the Indian subcontinent are described and will serve as a basis for comparison against global warming simulations. Global simulations based upon the Community Earth System Model (CESM) are employed to drive a dynamical downscaling pipeline in which the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is employed as regional climate model, in a nested configuration with two domains at 30- and 10-km resolution, respectively. The entire ensemble was integrated for 15 years (1980–94), with the global model representing a complete integration from the onset of Northern Hemisphere industrialization. Compared to CESM, WRF significantly improves the representation of orographic precipitation. Precipitation extremes are also characterized using extreme value analysis. To investigate the sensitivity of the South Asian summer monsoon simulation to different parameterization schemes, a small physics ensemble is employed. The Noah multiphysics (Noah-MP) land surface scheme reduces the summer warm bias compared to the Noah land surface scheme. Compared with the Kain–Fritsch cumulus scheme, the Grell-3 scheme produces an increased moisture bias at the first western rain barrier, whereas the Tiedtke scheme produces less precipitation over the subcontinent than observed. Otherwise the improvement of fit to the observations derived from applying the downscaling methodology is highly significant.

Projected precipitation changes over China for global warming levels at 1.5°C and 2°C in an ensemble of regional climate simulations: Impact of bias-correction algorithms

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lianyi Guo
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Mathematical Framework

<p>Four bias-correction methods, i.e. Gamma Cumulative Distribution Function (GamCDF), Quantile-Quantile Adjustment (QQadj), Equidistant CDF Matching (EDCDF) and Transform CDF (CDF-t), were applied to five daily precipitation datasets over China produced by LMDZ4-regional that was nested into five global climate models (GCMs), BCC-CSM1-1m, CNRM-CM5, FGOALS-g2, IPSL-CM5A-MR and MPI-ESM-MR, respectively. A unified mathematical framework can be used to define the four methods, which helps understanding their nature and essence in identifying the most reliable probability distributions of projected climate. CDF-t is shown to be the best bias-correction algorithm based on a comprehensive evaluation of different rainfall indices. Future precipitation projections corresponds to the global warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C under RCP8.5 were obtained using the bias correction methods. The multi-algorithm and multi-model ensemble characteristics allow to explore the spreading of results, considered as a surrogate of climate projection uncertainty, and to attribute such uncertainties to different sources. It was found that the spread among bias-correction methods is smaller than that among dynamical downscaling simulations. The four bias-correction methods with CDF-t at the top all reduce the spread among the downscaled results. Future projection using CDF-t is thus considered having higher credibility.</p>

scholarly journals Causes of future Mediterranean precipitation decline depend on the season

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman Brogli ◽  
Silje Lund Sørland ◽  
Nico Kröner ◽  
Christoph Schär
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Environmental Research ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Circulation Changes

<p>The Mediterranean is among the global 'hot-spots' of climate change, where severe consequences of climate change are expected. Changes in the atmospheric water cycle are among the leading causes of the vulnerability of the Mediterranean to greenhouse gas-driven warming. Specifically, precipitation is projected to decrease year-round, which is expected to have major impacts on hydrology, biodiversity, agriculture, hydropower, and further economic sectors that rely on sufficient water supply.</p><p>We investigate possible causes of the Mediterranean drying in regional climate simulations. To isolate the influence of multiple large-scale drivers on the drying, we sequentially add the respective drivers from global models to regional climate model simulations. We show that the causes of the Mediterranean drying depend on the season. We will present in detail how the summer drying is driven by the land-ocean warming contrast, lapse-rate and other thermodynamic changes, while it only weakly depends on circulation changes. In contrast, changes in the circulation are the primary driver for the projected winter precipitation decline. Since land-ocean contrast, thermodynamic and lapse-rate changes are more robust in climate simulations than circulation changes, the uncertainty associated with the projected drying should be considered smaller in summer than in winter.</p><p>Reference: Brogli, R., S. L. Sørland, N. Kröner, and C. Schär, 2019: Causes of future Mediterranean precipitation decline depend on the season. Environmental Research Letters, 14, 114017, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab4438.</p>

scholarly journals Enhancement of heavy daily snowfall in central Japan due to global warming as projected by large ensemble of regional climate simulations

2016 ◽  
Vol 139 (2) ◽  
pp. 265-278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroaki Kawase ◽  
Akihiko Murata ◽  
Ryo Mizuta ◽  
Hidetaka Sasaki ◽  
Masaya Nosaka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
Central Japan ◽  
Climate Simulations

Two-Way Integration of WRF and CCSM for Regional Climate Simulations

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wuyin Lin ◽  
Minghua Zhang ◽  
Juanxiong He ◽  
Xiangmin Jiao ◽  
Ying Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Simulations

scholarly journals d4PDF: large-ensemble and high-resolution climate simulations for global warming risk assessment

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Masayoshi Ishii ◽  
Nobuhito Mori
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Models ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
Past Climate ◽  
The Past ◽  
Climate Simulations

Abstract A large-ensemble climate simulation database, which is known as the database for policy decision-making for future climate changes (d4PDF), was designed for climate change risk assessments. Since the completion of the first set of climate simulations in 2015, the database has been growing continuously. It contains the results of ensemble simulations conducted over a total of thousands years respectively for past and future climates using high-resolution global (60 km horizontal mesh) and regional (20 km mesh) atmospheric models. Several sets of future climate simulations are available, in which global mean surface air temperatures are forced to be higher by 4 K, 2 K, and 1.5 K relative to preindustrial levels. Nonwarming past climate simulations are incorporated in d4PDF along with the past climate simulations. The total data volume is approximately 2 petabytes. The atmospheric models satisfactorily simulate the past climate in terms of climatology, natural variations, and extreme events such as heavy precipitation and tropical cyclones. In addition, data users can obtain statistically significant changes in mean states or weather and climate extremes of interest between the past and future climates via a simple arithmetic computation without any statistical assumptions. The database is helpful in understanding future changes in climate states and in attributing past climate events to global warming. Impact assessment studies for climate changes have concurrently been performed in various research areas such as natural hazard, hydrology, civil engineering, agriculture, health, and insurance. The database has now become essential for promoting climate and risk assessment studies and for devising climate adaptation policies. Moreover, it has helped in establishing an interdisciplinary research community on global warming across Japan.

scholarly journals 2 °C vs. High Warming: Transitions to Flood-Generating Mechanisms across Canada

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1494
Author(s):  
Bernardo Teufel ◽  
Laxmi Sushama
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Late 21St Century ◽  
Transient Climate Change ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Change Mitigation

Fluvial flooding in Canada is often snowmelt-driven, thus occurs mostly in spring, and has caused billions of dollars in damage in the past decade alone. In a warmer climate, increasing rainfall and changing snowmelt rates could lead to significant shifts in flood-generating mechanisms. Here, projected changes to flood-generating mechanisms in terms of the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall are assessed across Canada, based on an ensemble of transient climate change simulations performed using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. Changes to flood-generating mechanisms are assessed for both a late 21st century, high warming (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) scenario, and in a 2 °C global warming context. Under 2 °C of global warming, the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall to streamflow peaks is projected to remain close to that of the current climate, despite slightly increased rainfall contribution. In contrast, a high warming scenario leads to widespread increases in rainfall contribution and the emergence of hotspots of change in currently snowmelt-dominated regions across Canada. In addition, several regions in southern Canada would be projected to become rainfall dominated. These contrasting projections highlight the importance of climate change mitigation, as remaining below the 2 °C global warming threshold can avoid large changes over most regions, implying a low likelihood that expensive flood adaptation measures would be necessary.

Climatological characterization of tropical cyclones detected in the regional climate simulations over the CORDEX‐SEA domain

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer Tibay ◽  
Faye Cruz ◽  
Fredolin Tangang ◽  
Liew Juneng ◽  
Thanh Ngo‐Duc ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Simulations
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